Newbie 2072: All Guns Blazing!! - Ended

[Umlaut]

I'd like to give N_M a chance to answer my question at least and I don't know if I want him to be the launch at all (though to be fair it's not like I'm voting someone else... I'm really unsure here, which is why I really should do more reading)

[Umlaut]

We have four whole days left, there's no hurry here.

[Not_Mafia]

I’m a town babysitter

[Not_Mafia]

Meanwhile the day is ticking away

VOTE: Not_Mafia

The push he wants for Luke is opportunistic and doesn't make sense

This is a very scummy E-1

How do you distinguish it from a towny E-1?

I'm ready to hear you out on this but you have to say something.

Opportunistic, he threw shade on me from the word go, the backed down when responded to, now I’m scum again all of a sudden. Terrible read progression

[Not_Mafia]

Lukewarm’s intent isn’t much better

[Not_Mafia]

It’s Heatstroke and Doogoslope

Mark my moo

[Pavowski]

Meanwhile the day is ticking away

VOTE: Not_Mafia

The push he wants for Luke is opportunistic and doesn't make sense

This is a very scummy E-1

How do you distinguish it from a towny E-1?

I'm ready to hear you out on this but you have to say something.

Opportunistic, he threw shade on me from the word go, the backed down when responded to, now I’m scum again all of a sudden. Terrible read progression

You went from null to scummy, for me, with your idea that Luke makes sense as a push for today without making that case at all. I know Umlaut says there's a way in which the Val NK makes sense with scum!Luke but I'm not sold. Can you in any way justify your scum!Luke case?

[Pavowski]

We have four whole days left, there's no hurry here.

I agree there's no need to rush, but we're three days deep in the day and only three people have bothered to place a vote (well, Luke is now declaring intent). The sooner we get some votes on the table the more time we have to discuss.

[Lukewarm]

We have four whole days left, there's no hurry here.

I am not in a hurry, but I also don't really like sitting and waiting if there is not discussion happening.

When I declared intent to hammer, then had been 18 total posts in the prior 24 hours.

If someone has things they want to talk about, I will hold off, but if discussion is not happening, I will hammer before just sitting in a stale day

[Pavowski]

We are at that point where 3 living players have not posted in over a day and we're closing in on 4.

I know it's a Saturday, but it would be really nice to hear from the rest of the players in here

[alstroemerial]

The fact that it's so quiet in and of itself makes me a little uneasy. I will ask NM, did Pavowski do anything Day 1 suspicious to you, or is it a combination of the E-1 vote and relationship to Lukewarm, your other SR? Because I had Pavowski coming out pretty strong on Day One.

I started writing the below post to try to analyze the wagons and the implications of a Not_Mafia flip and down the way ran into some stuff that just contradicted and didn't make sense, so either one of my assumptions is wrong (pretty plausible as we don't have a lot of info), or Not_Mafia is town. So this makes me want to UNVOTE: Not_Mafia. See the below for how I talked myself out of it...

Looking at today, I notice that not voting NM (besides NM himself) is Luke, Umlaut, and Marci. For comparison, the final miselim wagon on Shrek/Portia was me, Lukewarm, NM, Umlaut, and Pavowski, with Val, Shrek, Zyla, and Marci skipping out. From that, we can put the remaining people into a few groups, at least of the time of me writing:

On both wagons: Alstro, Pavowski
On Shrek, not NM: Lukewarm, NM, Umlaut
On NM, not Shrek: Zyla
On neither wagon: Marci

Since Zyla and Marci were the only ones not on the miselim yesterday, it seems to me extremely likely that at least one if not both mafias were on the wagon yesterday. For me, that could point to Not_Mafia due to, as I said in my earlier post today, the sort of sneaking onto the wagon. He got away with flying relatively under the radar for most of Day One, except for a brief wagon that dissipated without much response from his part, and like Pavowski said, has been strangely more forceful today now that we're one miselim in.

If NM does flip mafia, the partner is likely not bussing right now -- there hasn't really been an air of inevitability on the wagon and as Pavowski pointed out, we're not quite short on time yet (but getting there...). That's Luke/Umlaut/Marci. But NM doesn't need to bus Luke by similar reasoning, and I TR Luke already, so it's in {Umlaut, Marci}. But Marci, who is so light on voting, didn't need to throw out a Not_Mafia vote in 656 if they were partners, so that doesn't make sense. And {Umlaut, Not_Mafia} also doesn't make sense to me because, like I said earlier, I think a Not_Mafia town would make Umlaut scum more likely, and it couldn't really be that both not_Mafia flips make an Umlaut scum flip more likely. So by contradiction, some assumption has to be wrong, leading to the unvote for now.

With that for now, I'd like to put my vote here instead. VOTE: Zyla. Can you talk a bit more about your read on Umlaut, especially your shift from a null read to a scum read in Day One? You wrote that they seem to not be trying to sort back in 547, anything else independent of other potential flips?

[ArcAngel9]

Vote Count 2-1

Pavowski :

alstroemerial :

Zyla :

alstroemerial

Lukewarm :

Not_Mafia :

Zyla, , Pavowski

Umlaut :

,

marcistar :

Not Voting

: , Lukewarm, Not_Mafia, marcistar, Umlaut

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline: July 28, Morning US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2021-07-28 03:40:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[ArcAngel9]

Zyla have been prodded

[Lukewarm]

Alstro, I am really not following that post

[Pavowski]

I'll leave it to Alstro to interpret their own post, but suffice to say they don't want to lim NM, or at least not right now

I'm not married to a NM lim but I still haven't heard why his call for a Luke lim today makes any kind of sense.

[Not_Mafia]

Here come the backpedals

[Pavowski]

I still think you're scum, but I'm open to hearing other, y'know, reasoned arguments

Do you have one of those?

[marcistar]

sorry yall ive been a bit busy

Alstro, I am really not following that post

what about it are u not following? it looked fine to me..

[Umlaut]

Interested in trying this

VOTE: Pavowski

I don't really follow what N_M is saying about Luke (and I think honestly it would be hard for me to ever believe Luke is scum) but the Pavowski read actually makes some sense.

Weekend is busier than anticipated but I am at least reading along still, btw.

[Pavowski]

Interested in trying this

VOTE: Pavowski

I don't really follow what N_M is saying about Luke (and I think honestly it would be hard for me to ever believe Luke is scum) but the Pavowski read actually makes some sense.

Weekend is busier than anticipated but I am at least reading along still, btw.

Well, at least you voted.

So NM has a bad read on Luke, but a good one on me? My scumread on him today is based pretty much entirely on him saying Luke is the move following a NK that I think most of us agree does not jive with scum!Luke. You are the only one who has even made an effort to justify NM's push on Luke (in 696, you imply that a partner might convince scum!Luke to NK Val even if he wouldn't do it on his own), but now you seem in agreement with me on Luke?

Why *wouldn't* I adjust my read on NM based on his early posts today?

[marcistar]

Marci is Null still, but townier than yesterday

Why is Marci townier today?

Less

today

really, and more just since I last posted my reads list, bad wording on my part. Her posts after that point were looking townier to me than the ones before it, so she's just not one of my major suspects atm

im trying to read back and make a readslist because i feel bad for the inactivity the past few days,
zyla.. if u ever come back, what about what ive done seems townier..? im confused on what to read u as, so i wanna see ur thought process a bit more

[alstroemerial]

Luke, what part of it doesn't make sense? Let me try writing a general outline of the post and maybe you can point to the part that needs more detail/explanation.

1) A question to NM about the read on Pavowski
2) A preview of the rest of the post -- the following thought process is meant to look at where I'd go next once Not_Mafia flips red since I was voting him, but then I hit a wall on potential partners, making me want to unvote for now.
3) Break remaining people into 4 groups based on wagons at that point
4) Assumption that at least one mafia was voting Shrek and speculation as to why it could be NM.
5) Assumption that NM's partner is not voting for him at the time of the post.
6) Luke as a partner doesn't make sense because NM doesn't need to bus. Marci and Umlaut also don't make a lot of sense. So, there's not really a great candidate for a partner, which makes me question an assumption or the fact that NM is mafia. Hence, unvoting.
7) Questions to Zyla as a new place for my suspicion

Since Zyla is on track for getting replaced, if I'm understanding the rules correctly, I might need to recalibrate a bit.

@Mod

, will the deadline be paused/extended if that happens?

[Pavowski]

I think Zyla gets another prod before the replacement train starts up.

[Lukewarm]

I think that my difficulty following was that there were a few things I found contradictory, and do not understand why you ended with a Zyla vote

For example:

Since Zyla and Marci were the only ones not on the miselim yesterday, it seems to me extremely likely that at least one if not both mafias were on the wagon yesterday.

And then ending with a Zyla vote


And then also, you had both several reasons why scum Not_Mafia would make sense and then also reasons why he did not make sense, so I am a little unsure where you ended wrt him. So, what is your current read on Not_Mafia?

[alstroemerial]

If I had to guess now I'd say that Zyla's partner was on the wagon, but I'm more at a loss as to who the partner is. Zyla has been hard to sort for a bit but -- I landed on NM likely being

town

by a sort of PoE, and so then Zyla over Marci for being the main aggressor on NM, though I could also be convinced into Marci or Umlaut.