Newbie 2074 | Game Over

[Leaven]

Sorry to confuse. Yes, just tallying the counts. Before Dann pulled his vote, it looked like 5 out of 7 had gamma in top 2. With 7 left and 2 scum remaining, 5 is as much of a consensus as you can get. I'll listen to other cases, but a collective first impression hitting 5 for 5 is very compelling to me from a purely statistical perspective. This town is already working uphill against two self votes, including a self hammer. I obviously can't be sure, but it just seems likeliest and talking myself out of it would just be fancy play syndrome. We haven't heard much from Dann or ythan, though. Regardless, when presented gamma/val vs clsr/ythan, I feel safer aligning with the latter given my read of things.

[StrangeMatter]

Sorry to confuse. Yes, just tallying the counts. Before Dann pulled his vote, it looked like 5 out of 7 had gamma in top 2. With 7 left and 2 scum remaining, 5 is as much of a consensus as you can get. I'll listen to other cases, but a collective first impression hitting 5 for 5 is very compelling to me from a purely statistical perspective. This town is already working uphill against two self votes, including a self hammer. I obviously can't be sure, but it just seems likeliest and talking myself out of it would just be fancy play syndrome. We haven't heard much from Dann or ythan, though. Regardless, when presented gamma/val vs clsr/ythan, I feel safer aligning with the latter given my read of things.

Why are you choosing to align? And with CSLR/Ythan for that matter?

This post reads scummily and I'll explain after he answers.

[StrangeMatter]

Interpreted*

[Gamma Emerald]

This town is already working uphill against two self votes, including a self hammer.

Both of them are dead tho

[Gamma Emerald]

Also those groupings don’t feel natural

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Spoiler:

i apologize for the low posting, i'm going over and reading some other newbie games, namely 2068 (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=86933) in order to understand val's case on Ythan more. currently, i'm on page 5. am pretty fresh into it
here's something curious i noticed right off the bat

I don't like this post.

I didn't put it there for you to like. If you don't like the way i start then I'm sorry but I've seen it done before i can even link a game if ya like

mini/norwee flipped scum that game, and this quote made me think about the topic of meta-consistency: is there a way to tell if someone is more likely to be scum/town because of how they play with this topic?

since i don't think i'll be able to find a concrete answer right away, i'm just gonna pull things from the game we are playing right now
james and salsabil have both made several nods to their past logs and games despite them playing drastically differently in those games mentioned
- james: the val-james exchange in 47, response in 52, 445, 149, and also several mentions to newbie 2064
- salsa: almost every interaction with Leaven, and just look at EOD1 lol

with the numbers in mind ('look at my meta and make a conclusion from that, ok?' is 2-1 town-mafia) i think it can probably be used as a towntell given the correct circumstances are met, given that two people who have asked us to do that sort of reading offhandedly flipped town right in front of us
at a first glance the general pattern seems to be that mafia are less intent on flaunting off their past games, except if it explicitly benefits them (meta consistency = more towny or null reads to everyone else)

now with that small bit of data i want to use this tell on somebody alive, and I think it would most likely apply to Val here, for reasons i've stated in this post

so, can this towntell work on val, who has yet to play a scum game yet(?) and has multiple town games in the books that he can use to analyze and replicate his townplay?
i'll go over the interactions real quick

I'm from 09 and I don't read meta.

Even when you have a "What the fuck is that?" reaction to an opening post, and think something might be clearly and opening scummy from post 1; especially when someone else comes alongs and says something like "I'm your biggest fan!", you don't feel the need to quickly check it out?

In any case, it's so obviously hokum that I think there might be a town explanation for it. Perhaps Dannflor really wanted to vote my slot regardless of what I actually posted, and wanted some at least sort-of serious sounding justification so people would pay attention to it. I can certainly think of a reason someone would want to do that on my slot in particular, but a 2012 player would also know it wouldn't exactly be in the spirit of the rules to give it as the genuine reason for the vote.

He is either scum, or a naughty town who deserves a spanking. Since he is also a Queen's Gambit player, I am inclined to give the benefit of the doubt and say the latter for now, but my eyes are now peeled with respect to that slot.

val questions ythan's reluctance to look at past games surprising, and explains why. post looks fine to me with the context of what i'm using.

they also show they went to the lengths to meta check by BS read, which also points towards town

I'm not sure that's true. Post 55 demonstrates they were already aware of me prior to the game, and I've only been in a small handful of games thus far. If there was any one thing you could point to that identifies my playstyle in particular, it would be the introductory semi-serious wall-shitpost, so I imagine they had already read 2068 and my other games where I do it rather than went meta diving to check the read.

val corrects dann, who was talking about giving me a townread for implicitly interpreting val's and their logs and making conclusions from them
@dann, since i confirmed that this was correct, what are the other reasons you are townreading me for?


val

might

play like they have been IIT as scum because he knows he could get away with it because his townplay is slightly more rigid than say, james's, which we can see in games like newbie 2068, for example
both val and james were in 2068, but an early argument with each other has both of them making wallposts, which is unorthodox when compared with this game's james, who had a very, very different way of stirring discussion
in the same realm, we have salsa. gamma has a hydra with salsa, and he claims that the differences in playstyle were like "night and day."
we can see that the town performance of both of those players will vary wildly depending on circumstance. as far as i know, it's harder to find that variance with val89 but i'm still content with the way they have played around the topic of meta consistency rn
--
i never really went over why val is scum except for bits and pieces, but it's just this: they're incredibly stubborn, gets caught up on tiny things for days, and uses emotive language in order to push condemns
now that im saying that out loud, ythan fits the bill LOL. i heavily doubt both are scum so something was wrong from the start

i can't dismiss this entirely though. their gameplan looks pretty solid as scum, not gonna lie
"i'm going to tunnel ythan for multiple days until it actually happens as a green flip. then, i will completely reevaluate and recover from that tunnel and focus on other townies in MYLO. because i haven't been asked to provide susses on people other than ythan (and CLSR, thanks for asking that one question Leaven) i could say anyone is suspicious and face little consequences, as i had townread very little people."
--
the main point of all this is that the motion by val to look back at a game of theirs in order to come out with a scumread for ythan is a bit ballsy if scum.
as far as I know they haven't had a mafia game yet, and since there's no way to know how they play as scum i'm just making general statements here. any sort of variance in behavior from past games they're linking, and it'll get called out if people actually bother reading it

the problem with all of this? it's all conjecture. i have no idea how val would play as mafia, but i think by taking jabs at how they would like this I can get closer to the truth of val's alignment
so the question is: should I apply this tell to val, a person who as far as I know has not played a single scum game yet and probably would take pride in their scumgame being similar to their towngame?
yes. i'm doing it for the vine.
i'm leaving this up in the air for everyone: am i onto something? whats your opinion on val, in general?

TL;DR: val maybe town

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Also those groupings don’t feel natural

sorry, why not?

[Gamma Emerald]

Also those groupings don’t feel natural

sorry, why not?

I don’t get why you and Ythan are put together
I can kinda get why me and Val are matched (pushing Ythan) but that doesn’t really mirror well to the you/Ythan pair since you haven’t pushed me that hard I think and Ythan hasn’t even voted me yet

[Nahdia]

Vote Count 2.02

Now playing... The American Dollar

Ythan (2):

Val89, StrangeMatter

Gamma Emerald (1):

Leaven,

Dannflor

Not Voting (4):

cowsloveSushirolls, Gamma Emerald, Ythan, Dannflor

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-08-06 10:00:00)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With seven players alive, it takes

four

to reach majority.

Note:

Sendin' some more prods.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Also those groupings don’t feel natural

sorry, why not?

I don’t get why you and Ythan are put together
I can kinda get why me and Val are matched (pushing Ythan) but that doesn’t really mirror well to the you/Ythan pair since you haven’t pushed me that hard I think and Ythan hasn’t even voted me yet

it'd make sense if we were locked into voting one of you/ythan, i'm assuming that leaven is playing around that world since i still read ythan as town
because of this clsr/ythan is the only pair that CAN be made from leaven's perspective cause i'm the only dude defending them right now
but uhhh i don't really find it to be a "them vs us" situation right now. forcing there to be one is kinda ??? from leaven here

[Ythan]

Time flies sigh

[Ythan]

It's been a busy weekend+ but should let up now? Finally??

[cowsloveSushirolls]

sweet, happy to have you back

[Ythan]

I mean it's 2am now so don't celebrate yet.

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Strange Matter

[Dannflor]

Strange Matter is doing the same thing they're doing Day 1 which is ask a lot of questions, stay on the sidelines, and try to look towny through that

However, I feel there isn't any actual follow up to their questions

I don't think Leaven's #600 makes much sense to write from a scum perspective but on a surface level it does appear to be fencesitty and scummy. I'm not sure I like SM jumping on that and being evasive about explaining why.

I'd rather go here than either of the two leading wagons which I think both have some town equity

[Val89]

Before Dann pulled his vote, it looked like 5 out of 7 had gamma in top 2.

I saw this, and thought I must have missed something. GE isn't going to have themselves as scum, and I know I haven't come out and said I think GE (or Clark) is scum; so if that were true that means every other player still alive must have at some point said they think GE is in the top 2 scum slots; and the only person I actually remember doing so was CLSR, so if I missed significant scum reads from the 4 remaining players - SM, Ythan, Dannflor, and Leaven; I'm obviously not paying much attention to this game and need to reevaluate.

I've looked back, and I can't actually see this - Ythan doesn't appear to weigh in on the GE slot; I'm not seeing any mention of GE from SM either. It's also specifically noted "Before Dann pulled his vote", but this 'tally' came after that, and I think it's clear that Dann has re-evaluated on GE. That leaves Leaven himself, and he notes:

but a collective first impression hitting 5 for 5 is very compelling to me from a purely statistical perspective. This town is already working uphill against two self votes, including a self hammer. I obviously can't be sure, but it just seems likeliest and talking myself out of it would just be fancy play syndrome.

In other words, he thinks GE is likely to be scum because of this 'consensus scum' thing, rather than having a scum case against him himself (at least, not one that's been publicly stated). So that literally leaves CLSR. When you look into it, Leaven is suggesting that GE is a consensus scum, all the town thinks he is scummy, and therefore he might as well hop on that wagon too, because

CLSR voted for him

. That's quite a leap. It's dressed up in a lot of words, and has to be, because when you actually look into it, the conclusion obviously doesn't stand.

I don't think Leaven's #600 makes much sense to write from a scum perspective

It does to me, if scum!Leaven is looking for a reason to jump on a wagon towards a second town mislim, but doesn't have enough reasons to justify it, waffling up that they are somehow a scum consensus, and literally every townie thinks GE is scum is a good way to do that; if it flips green, he just throws his hands up and says "hey, everyone else thought he was scum too, look at my post 600; you can't argue with statistics!". Hell, my first thought was to buy it and assume I had missed some big reason why GE must actually be scum and I was barking up the wrong tree, it wasn't until I actually looked closely at it that it started to fall apart. Perhaps he was banking on us not doing the work, there; or if we did, he can wave it away as a 'mistake' now; like (although he hasn't directly addressed this yet) he must not have noticed SM was voting Ythan in his first tally and we are to assume that was just carelessness.

In short, I think Leavens scum equity is rising now for me, too.

[Leaven]

So I wrote this back when early votes signaled unanimous Gamma (to me at least) but I've been sitting on my hands hoping Dann, strange, and ythan would get more active.

A plausible sequence of events.
Assume salsa(confirmed), strange, ythan, james(confirmed), leaven all town. Strange(town) and james(town) already have votes on salsa. Salsa is presently voting leaven(town) and at risk of omgus. If you're scum, this is an irresistible ML wagon. Sure this may happen some times when gamma is town, but it happens nearly every time gamma is scum. Salsa did one better, by soliciting another omgus town vote by swapping her vote to ythan(town) and this time successfully securing it. A 5th vote wasn't even needed since salsa(town) self hammered.

To be fair, strange(rvs) or ythan(omgus) could still be scum, but have much firmer defenses than gamma for why they were on the wagon.

Strange seemed willing to admit it could be gamma or ythan, despite voting ythan (this was my personal first impression when I woke up on day 2, but have solidified in two different different directions). I'm not sure how much more strange would prefer ythan to gamma though.

Val being sus of ythan, but not gamma, reads sus but not damning. Having clsr as number 2 who im town-reading, doesn't help. And now he's scum-reading myself (which tbh gives him some towncred).

Clsr already scumread gamma/val, which is where I've been.

Dann voting gamma, moved him off my radar, and had me thinking town, but I guess he could haven been bussing for cred and pulled when he noticed the heat turning up. We don't get much commentary on the votes or the unvotes. Now on Strange, which is defensible.

[Val89]

Leaven, simple question, why are you scumreading GE?

I took your 600 to mean you were almost SR that slot by default, so to speak, but since I pointed out how the analysis that "5 out of 7" was total crap, you posted another bunch of something I'm having difficulty following, but I think is supposed to be some sort of VCA on the Salsa wagon assuming that a group of players, including one of the scummiest slots in the thread to my eyes are somehow town with no justification.

At this point, I think it's clear you are implying strongly that you think GE is scum, but I'm somewhat confused as to how you arrived there. At least CLSR has given some justification, even if I'm not convinced by it.

[Leaven]

I'll state it again and let each of those 5 dispute:

• Leaven
  CLSR - had Gamma/Val as top 2 scum
  Strange - first post day 2 said Ythan or Gamma before voting Ythan (but saying he wouldn't mind if Ythan flipped green)
  Dann - voted Gamma early day 2
  Ythan - yet to be heard from, but if choosing between himself and Gamma, presume would be ok with Gamma.

Repeating for the sake of understanding my mindset. Town has had 2 self-votes (including a self-hammer that prevented us from getting a lot more info on day 1 - 617 maps out the easy ML that town should have been looking to stop on day 1, but we had 2 emotional town self-inflicted votes leading to a quick hammer robbing us of that opportunity). Remember when I was berated for not wanting to be on an E-2 wagon with my RVS. This is exactly why. On top of that, 2 of my 5 town reads aren't actively participating (Ythan and Dann) despite being our SE's (I understand it's likely out of their control rather than strategic, but still not ideal). Strange, my other town, said he was ok with a policy vote flipping Ythan green, which tbh I don't blame him for, but would prefer we don't given what seems like a better option.

[Dannflor]

Why is Strange a town read?

[cowsloveSushirolls]

I'll state it again and let each of those 5 dispute:
Leaven
CLSR - had Gamma/Val as top 2 scum
Strange - first post day 2 said Ythan or Gamma before voting Ythan (but saying he wouldn't mind if Ythan flipped green)
Dann - voted Gamma early day 2
Ythan - yet to be heard from, but if choosing between himself and Gamma, presume would be ok with Gamma.

damn that actually is 5 psuedo-votes
it's obvious but there's no way that wagon is pure just by val/gamma

not

being a thing (which well, isn't a thing that i bothered to try to disprove. it's gut)

so with that said, in the world of gamma-scum who do you think could be paired with them, leaven?

--
current worlds right now seem like:
gamma is town // 2 scum on psuedo-wagon or 1in1out
gamma is scum // 1 scum on psuedo-wagon (can't be 1 out because val/gamma implausible)

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Spoiler: votecounts that interest me: could be useful

Vote Count 1.02

Now playing... The Mountain Goats

Salsabil Faria (2):

JamesTheNames,

Dannflor

, StrangeMatter

Val89 (2):

cowsloveSushirolls

, Dannflor, Ythan

JamesTheNames (1):

JamesTheNames

, Salsabil Faria

Ythan (1):

Leaven

cowsloveSushirolls (1):

ClarkBar

ClarkBar (1):

JamesTheNames

, Val89

Dannflor (0):

StrangeMatter

StrangeMatter (0):

Salsabil Faria

Not Voting (1):

Salsabil Faria

,

Val89

,

cowsloveSushirolls

,

Dannflor

,

Ythan

, cowsloveSushirolls

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-08-01 09:30:00)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Note:

Happy Friday!

Vote Count 1.05

Now playing... 20syl

Ythan (2):

Leaven

, Val89, JamesTheNames

JamesTheNames (2):

cowsloveSushirolls, Leaven

StrangeMatter (2):

Dannflor, Salsabil Faria

Val89 (1):

Ythan

Salsabil Faria (1):

StrangeMatter

cowsloveSushirolls (1):

ClarkBar

ClarkBar (0):

Salsabil Faria

Not Voting (0):

Leaven

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-08-01 09:30:00)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Note:

Sensation is your brain turning stimulus into illusions it can comprehend.

Vote Count 1.07

Now playing... Metric

Ythan (2):

Val89, JamesTheNames

Leaven (2):

Salsabil Faria, Dannflor

JamesTheNames (1):

Leaven

Val89 (1):

Ythan

Salsabil Faria (1):

StrangeMatter

cowsloveSushirolls (1):

ClarkBar

StrangeMatter (0):

Dannflor

,

Salsabil Faria

Not Voting (1):

cowsloveSushirolls

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-08-01 09:30:00)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Note:

Prodding ClarkBar.

Vote Count 1.09

Now playing... Metric

Salsabil Faria (5):

StrangeMatter, JamesTheNames, Gamma Emerald, Ythan, Salsabil Faria

Gamma Emerald (2):

Leaven, Dannflor

Ythan (1):

Val89,

Salsabil Faria

Leaven (0):

Salsabil Faria

,

Dannflor

Val89 (0):

Ythan

cowsloveSushirolls (0):

Gamma Emerald

Not Voting (1):

cowsloveSushirolls

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-08-01 09:30:00)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Note:

There was a mistake in vote count 1.07 and none of you told me

Vote Count 2.01

Now playing... Dua Lipa

Ythan (2):

Val89, StrangeMatter

Gamma Emerald (2):

Leaven, Dannflor

Not Voting (3):

StrangeMatter

,

Leaven

,

Val89

, cowsloveSushirolls, Gamma Emerald,

Dannflor

, Ythan

Deadline is in

(expired on 2021-08-06 10:00:00)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With seven players alive, it takes

four

to reach majority.

Note:

I'm tired.

[Gamma Emerald]

I have no idea what Leaven is trying to say rn and it kinda bothers me

[Leaven]

Dannflor - Strange could definitely be scum, but the Salsa wagon isn't a case because he was there (by my estimation) during RVS. Also in GammaScum world, coming out early day 2 and saying it could be ythan or gamma, but ythan also works as policy is a bit scummy because it gives him an out if either gamma flips red, or if ythan flips green. That's why it would be interesting to see how much more strongly Strange feels about Ythan over Gamma.

Same is true for you (Dannflor) to a lesser extent though.

CLSR - Why again was Gamma/Val implausible? If Val could be cleared that would be awesome, but I feel Val and my own reads are fairly far apart.