Newbie 2074 | Game Over

[Gamma Emerald]

What about this game state makes me scum? That seems to be what you’re communicating and I have no damn clue how you’re getting that conclusion from the data you’re referencing in your recent posts.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

CLSR - Why again was Gamma/Val implausible? If Val could be cleared that would be awesome, but I feel Val and my own reads are fairly far apart.

the song and dance both val and clark (the slot val replaced into) had at the beginning of the game feels too obvious for them to be paired, along with what's happening right now

[cowsloveSushirolls]

CLSR - Why again was Gamma/Val implausible? If Val could be cleared that would be awesome, but I feel Val and my own reads are fairly far apart.

the song and dance both val and clark (the slot val replaced into) had at the beginning of the game feels too obvious for them to be paired, along with what's happening right now

sorry, the slot gamma* replaced into

[Gamma Emerald]

Wait what’s going on between Val and me now?

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Wait what’s going on between Val and me now?

i'm seeing if it's worth completely ruling out you/val for the sake of making leaven's psuedo-wagon results more useful
it's related to this post:

current worlds right now seem like:
gamma is town // 2 scum on psuedo-wagon or 1in1out
gamma is scum // 1 scum on psuedo-wagon (can't be 1 out because val/gamma implausible)

biggest thing to take away is that in the bottom world it's guaranteed that your other mafia wants to bus you super early
that's only if val/gamma is sorted out w/ everyone as unlikely, though

[Gamma Emerald]

I meant moreso what is happening right now that makes you think I’m not scum with Val

[cowsloveSushirolls]

I meant moreso what is happening right now that makes you think I’m not scum with Val

oh sorry
the fact that everyone except for him has expressed a desire to vote you today over someone else is probably something that wouldn't actually catch scum!val + gamma if that makes sense

[cowsloveSushirolls]

i'm unsure of what to talk about

what i want most probably is a full explanation of why strange is voting ythan right now
they acknowledge that gamma's evidence for voting salsa is weak, but has not touched on what ythan was doing at the end of d1. i'm wondering if they share the same opinion of ythan's case as they do gamma's

[Ythan]

Okay I'm gonna like look at isos.

[StrangeMatter]

i'm unsure of what to talk about

what i want most probably is a full explanation of why strange is voting ythan right now
they acknowledge that gamma's evidence for voting salsa is weak, but has not touched on what ythan was doing at the end of d1. i'm wondering if they share the same opinion of ythan's case as they do gamma's

Please excuse me for any mistakes made, it's very early here.

From what I can parse from this, to me it doesn't really seem like a good reason. Strings of Salsa's posts were very fillery, yet I'm not quite sure if their vote was just to get her to be more active in the conversation or something else. However, I think it's less something I would want to vote than Leaven right now. Specifically because I got a feeling like he's trying to cover up for getting a Day 2 miss elimination on Gamma. Along with this, they say they'd align themselves with Ythan and CLSR, which to me seems very off considering what I've seen from above. Another thing I just want to point out is that if he aligns himself with two others, the game would look something like a 4-3 (not saying 3 scum, saying 4 players vs 3 players), meaning if they have a consensus, they'd only need to convince one person to hammer from what I think. However, I'm not sure about this fully yet and will wait to see tomorrow. For now, I'll leave a vote on him.

VOTE: Leaven

[Val89]

I'll state it again and let each of those 5 dispute:
Leaven

My question was WHY Leaven is scumreading GE. I've only seen CLSR attempt to give a justification so far.

If the answer is "because 4 other slots at one time or other were shading the slot" then fair enough, but can you confirm that for us?

[Leaven]

617. Salsa was the was easy ML from any scum's perspective. Just walk through those events in your head if you were scum vs if you were town.

Consider a shark attack. If you heard about a shark attack (salsa elim), would you you assume it was within 1 mile of shore or not? Sure shark attacks happen at sea (gamma could be third on salsa unwittingly) but it happens nearly all the time when gamma is scum (most shark attacks happen close to shore because that's overwhelmingly where most shark encounters occur - gamma is usually scum when he wagons salsa become salsa wagons happen overwhelming more when gamma is scum than if he is town and unsure about salsa. Town cant be sure but since we can evaluate the underlying likelihoods, we can make a better than random selection. Town has imperfect information and infinite possibilities but can do plenty to evaluate likelihoods and maximize our chances. It's simply much more likely that gamma ends up third on salsa(town) intentionally when he is scum than he does accidentally when he is town. If you think that towngamma unwittingly starts this wagon as town with jamestown and strange(town - asummimg you are town) already on it and salsa voting leaven(scum) not biting the omgus vote then your vote is correctly on me and not gamma. It certainly gives me a lot of credit that I as scum would not vote salsa back with 2 town (assuming you're town which is dubious) on her already AND her voting for me.

Fwiw, after strange saying ythan or gamma, voting ythan as policy, then flipping from ythan to me. I think dann and cows are right about you (strange) being scummy, so i stand corrected. But again overwhelmingly odds are that gamma is best shot.

So Val, are you 100 percent ruling out Gamma as scum here?

*posting on mobile - apology for typos.

[Dannflor]

the competing wagons should really be like SM and leaven right now

not this GE/Ythan crap

[Gamma Emerald]

the competing wagons should really be like SM and leaven right now

not this GE/Ythan crap

I've kinda been thinking over my Leaven read because I feel like he's kinda doing a repeat performance of yesterday on some level where his posts seem thought out but on closer inspection there's not much actual meat to them. He's put out like 5 or so blocks of text that feel like casing me but really just seem to be trying to motivate groupthink on my slot.

@StrangeMatter

what do you think, since you're the one I had what I feel for me was the most engaging discussion on Leaven with D1?

[Dannflor]

[sushirolls, val]
[gamma]
[ythan]
[leaven]
[strange matter]

[Leaven]

So gammascum, strange, val, and dann lim leaventown here and nk clsrtown. Can ythan val dann strange figure out whos the scum amongst them if they all unanimously vote gamma d3.

[Leaven]

If its strangescum, this seems winning for town right?

[cowsloveSushirolls]

the competing wagons should really be like SM and leaven right now

not this GE/Ythan crap

i am absolutely not looking at this as an "team 1 vs team 2" situation although i may have forced it to be that way with my word choice
if the circumstances of the salsa wagon are too shaky to reliably find mafia from then i'll agree with that also. the only person (currently alive) who was interacting w/ salsa when hammer was achieved was ythan and nobody has commented on their play except for me, gamma and SM today (only 50%) so it isn't really a topic people are invested on for some reason


i've only looked at GE after they made their vote so i may have missed it: what makes gamma a townread for you?

[Leaven]

I put ythan's play as omgus. It read heated to me. Certainly worth discussion though, but i personally found gamma's directed case towards salsa too perfect a scum situation.

I read a post that said town should find the easy d1 ML and stop it. Well we didnt stop it but we still knew who instigated it.

[Val89]

So Val, are you 100 percent ruling out Gamma as scum here?

I'm not 100 percent on any of my reads, but I think Gamma is town here, and I've seen no case from anyone that's made me reconsider so far.

I wasn't on the salsa wagon, but that is because it happened so fast and was done and dusted while I was offline, so I didn't get a chance to evaluate if I considered it to have merit. Looking back, though, I think what was presented against Salsa was a reasonable case for that stage of the game, and while I felt Ythan was scummier, I can see why town!Gamma casts that vote. I don't think anyone was expecting it to result in a self hammer as quick as it did, and the only thing I find really suspicious about how that wagon went was Ythan putting her in hammer range without announcing it.

Ultimately, I think the if you accept Sala was the 'easy' mislim yesterday, with her flipping Town, the makes Gamma the easy mislim today, if you were scum trying to chain one into another, and I find the reasons Gamma gave yesterday for voting Salsa more compelling, even knowing the flip, than I do "well, he pushed a mislim wagon" in isolation, and I'm starting to consider Leaven more likley scum for pushing that on that basis.

I'm still much more sure Ythan is flipping red than anyone else at this point though. I thought he was scummy as hell yesterday, the unannounced E-1 was another ping, and then he has spent the day straight up lurking.

[Leaven]

For the record. How bad of a look is it for me (as town) when I end up actually talking my fellow town out of limming the top scum by sentiment at morning if that person ends up flipping red?

[Leaven]

I mean in evaluating my townplay post game.

[StrangeMatter]

the competing wagons should really be like SM and leaven right now

not this GE/Ythan crap

I've kinda been thinking over my Leaven read because I feel like he's kinda doing a repeat performance of yesterday on some level where his posts seem thought out but on closer inspection there's not much actual meat to them. He's put out like 5 or so blocks of text that feel like casing me but really just seem to be trying to motivate groupthink on my slot.

@StrangeMatter

what do you think, since you're the one I had what I feel for me was the most engaging discussion on Leaven with D1?

I felt like their discussion feels like their repeating the main idea of what they're trying to say throughout Day 1 and throughout Day 2. However, I'm not sure I'm understanding what his case is supposed to be for, and isn't really compelling to me in the slightest. They just feel like hollow cases covering for themselves for the read on you to me. I also don't think it helps Day 1 they weren't exactly scumhunting, which to me can seem like you already know enough just to talk and let Salsa end up being miselimed while getting through the day. Not to mention from what I poorly worded as why saying aligning themselves with Ythan and CLSR is off to me, which I'm going to try to explain better.

So there are 7 people in this game. If, in theory from what Leaven has said, the game would look something like (Leaven, Ythan, cowsloveSushiroll) vs (Val89 and Gamma). If this is the case and let's just say everyone in both group agree on voting one person each, then the first group would need only either me or Dannflor to go and vote Gamma, while the second group would have needed both me and Dann to vote to eliminate someone. What I'm trying to get at is that in this way it could absolutely benefit scum Leaven. Not to mention adding a scum partner would make this devastatingly bad.

[Leaven]

You need to flip yourself and val in the example.

[Leaven]

No wait. Yes thats how i read it early.