Newbie 2074 | Game Over

[Leaven]

Plus dann had voted gamma already.

[cowsloveSushirolls]

Consider a shark attack.
If you heard about a shark attack (salsa elim), would you you assume it was within 1 mile of shore or not?
Sure shark attacks happen at sea (gamma could be third on salsa unwittingly) but it happens nearly all the time when gamma is scum (most shark attacks happen close to shore because that's overwhelmingly where most shark encounters occur - gamma is usually scum when he wagons salsa become salsa wagons happen overwhelming more when gamma is scum than if he is town and unsure about salsa.
Town cant be sure but since we can evaluate the underlying likelihoods, we can make a better than random selection.
Town has imperfect information and infinite possibilities but can do plenty to evaluate likelihoods and maximize our chances.
It's simply much more likely that gamma ends up third on salsa(town) intentionally when he is scum than he does accidentally when he is town.
If you think that towngamma unwittingly starts this wagon as town with jamestown and strange(town - asummimg you are town) already on it and salsa voting leaven(scum) not biting the omgus vote then your vote is correctly on me and not gamma.

It certainly gives me a lot of credit that I as scum would not vote salsa back with 2 town (assuming you're town which is dubious) on her already AND her voting for me.

this may be an oversimplification, but you are saying that you would've voted anyone who was third on that wagon because of how opportunistic it would be to do so, right?

i think bolded is a alright point but it's WIFOM + i find it more likely that with an all town wagon it's a lot easier to have your scumbuddy "suspect" salsa and have that lead into a vote of their own (if i have it in my head right. i had to reformat the post above so i could respond to it)

[cowsloveSushirolls]

I'm still much more sure Ythan is flipping red than anyone else at this point though. I thought he was scummy as hell yesterday, the unannounced E-1 was another ping, and then he has spent the day straight up lurking.

people call it open wolfing, right? when someone is doing the things mafia really wants to do in order to achieve their win condition, but not very subtly

i can find a town explanation for everything except the first probably
the second one i found the entire thing to be emotionally charged and i don't know how capable ythan is at faking that. i think the entire thing was pretty town as i've talked about a few times
3rd one ythan can probably answer themselves lol

[cowsloveSushirolls]

So gammascum, strange, val, and dann lim leaventown here and nk clsrtown. Can ythan val dann strange figure out whos the scum amongst them if they all unanimously vote gamma d3.

NK clsrtown?


if you agree with what i said about it not being val/gamma, then you're confident in it just being one of strange/gamma or dann/gamma, right?

[cowsloveSushirolls]

oh i forgot about ythan/gamma

might not even be a productive use of time to mull over pairs without scumflips but i doubt this is it either

doodoodoodoooooo VOTE: StrangeMatter

[Leaven]

It was also the setup of her currently voting leaven(town), so scum would expect me to likely join. That's why i considered Gamma's vote a defacto E-1, despite it likely looking like only E-2

[cowsloveSushirolls]

It was also the setup of her currently voting leaven(town), so scum would expect me to likely join. That's why i considered Gamma's vote a defacto E-1, despite it likely looking like only E-2

this makes a lot of sense

[cowsloveSushirolls]

So there are 7 people in this game. If, in theory from what Leaven has said, the game would look something like (Leaven, Ythan, cowsloveSushiroll) vs (Val89 and Gamma). If this is the case and let's just say everyone in both group agree on voting one person each, then the first group would need only either me or Dannflor to go and vote Gamma, while the second group would have needed both me and Dann to vote to eliminate someone. What I'm trying to get at is that in this way it could absolutely benefit scum Leaven.

Not to mention adding a scum partner would make this devastatingly bad.

it's not 4v3 and suggesting that it is like Leaven is doing is probably worsening the problem
also, could you elaborate on bolded?

[StrangeMatter]

So there are 7 people in this game. If, in theory from what Leaven has said, the game would look something like (Leaven, Ythan, cowsloveSushiroll) vs (Val89 and Gamma). If this is the case and let's just say everyone in both group agree on voting one person each, then the first group would need only either me or Dannflor to go and vote Gamma, while the second group would have needed both me and Dann to vote to eliminate someone. What I'm trying to get at is that in this way it could absolutely benefit scum Leaven.

Not to mention adding a scum partner would make this devastatingly bad.

it's not 4v3 and suggesting that it is like Leaven is doing is probably worsening the problem
also, could you elaborate on bolded?

My bad if I didn't quite elaborate. What I mean is that with their partner, they get quite a few plays if what I theorize the play as scum goes down. So, if it's scum outside of this they could give a good reason, vote, and miseliminate a player. Also, despite what I've suggested from this post, I am not saying that it will or does happen from that, when it's mostly just theorizing what their scum play could've been from this.

[Leaven]

Strange - if Gamma flips red, how would your reads change?

[StrangeMatter]

I'd most likely look towards people who are outside the Day 1 Salsa wagon. Speaking from experience sake if one person that was part of the wagon flips red, especially on Day 1, likely means their partner is outside of the pool. That would be you and Dannflor to be honest. There's also reason to doubt scum would both be in this pool if they eliminate and move it all down to 2. And the only reason they WOULD do this is to do the unlikely option out of what is WIFORM to shake Town off their tail.

What if Gamma flips green then Leaven?

[Leaven]

Leaven - Gamma (2nd Strange)
Dann - Strange (2nd Leaven)
CLSR - Strange
Ythan - ?
Val - Assume Leaven
Strange - Leaven
Gamma - Leaven

I may be wrong, but I'm assuming one of Ythan or Val likes you for scum over me, and despite you voting me, I'm risking myself to save townStrange. Is there scumLeaven reason to do that? TownLeaven reason is that I like Gamma for it a lot more. I think the only scum reason for me not to vote you here is if you were my partner. So if gamma flips green, then town should go me then you.

[Leaven]

Hell if the wind blows a little, Dann could flip his vote to me.

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Leaven
I still think SM is probably town so if we're moving to SM/Leaven as dueling wagons I'd prefer leaven
PEdit: apparently y'all think I was voting Leaven already, k

[Leaven]

Val. How are you feeling about Gamma/Strange?

[Leaven]

Knowing where Ythan stood would be great. Preferably before voting this time.

[Dannflor]

Man, I'm not super hot on Leaven as scum.

Why do you think SM is town, Gamma?

[Dannflor]

I suddenly get a really bad feeling looking at those Gamma/SM interactions

[Dannflor]

Why do I feel like you both have each other as town without ever really stating reasons why

why does it feel like your questions to each other are so devoid of actual sorting

ahhhhhhhhhhhh can someone else please look at this im gonna start conf biasing but it's giving me a sick feeling

[Dannflor]

Is there anyone not strongly town reading sushi/Val yet? Do I need to town case those for anyone?

I feel like my pool of possible scum is down to leaven/ythan/GE/SM

Out of those four I've been really liking leaven's recent posting

Ythan has been absent so it makes sense he'd be a wagon regardless of his alignment, could be scum I suppose but I don't think there's super strong evidence either way

[Leaven]

Also, I wasn’t here to even be able to stop them from hammering themselves, which just makes me angry to think about.

1. The two others in this wagon, (Ythan, Gamma) are scum, and pushed it to waste time over day 1. More leaning towards scum being Ythan here.

Or

2. Everyone who is on this is Town and scum is outside this wagon entirely and let it happen instead, passing day 1 and killing the person I read as Town.

bumping

[Dannflor]

Also, I wasn’t here to even be able to stop them from hammering themselves, which just makes me angry to think about.

oh hello I missed this line

You must be very angry that you couldn't have been here to read Salsabil's mind and someone stop her from self-hammering before she did so?

this feels like a line that comes from scum trying to look good not someone genuinely frustrated or thinking about the situation

[cowsloveSushirolls]

ahhhhhhhhhhhh can someone else please look at this im gonna start conf biasing but it's giving me a sick feeling

? i can look at interactions/isos tonight

[Dannflor]

idk just look at all the times Gamma and SM ask each other questions / quote each other but never really seem to follow it up with anything substantial?

Gamma has SM as "just town" and never really gives a reason

SM hasn't really stated a read on Gamma as far as I can tell but prefers Ythan in the Gamma/Ythan dichotomy

idk it gives me the heebiejeebies

[Gamma Emerald]

Man, I'm not super hot on Leaven as scum.

Why do you think SM is town, Gamma?

Eh there’s some

vibes

mostly
But I also think they’ve been kinda solvy in a way that feels genuine, even though I feel like their overall presence is kinda low