Assuming we miselim D1 (as the odds tell us we will) in all situations where there's
no
counterclaim...
A1
– nobody claims d1, we miseliminate a Townie. Cop, Doc, 4 VT, 2 Scum.
n1 a VT dies. Cop, Doc, 3 VT, 2 Scum.
d2 cop claims with a clear. Cop and a Townie are cleared (probably VT).
Confirmed Cop and VT
, Doc, 3 VT, 2 Scum. We either miselim a VT or eliminate a scum. either
Cop, VT
, Doc, 2 VT, 2 Scum OR
Cop, VT
, Doc, 3 VT, 1 Scum. The math is trivial from here.
n2 cop is blocked and someone is shot. let's assume the worst and it's doc.
Cop, VT
, 2 VT, 2 Scum.
d3 is
Cop, VT
, 2 VT, 2 Scum. 50/50 but assume that it's weighted towards a scum dying.
Cop, VT
, 2 VT, 1 Scum. Math is trivial.
A2
– tracker claims d1, we miseliminate a Townie.
Track
, JK, 4 VT, 2 Scum.
n1 a VT dies.
track
, jk, 3 VT, 2 scum.
d2 tracker claims blocked. we now know it's A2. We either miselim a VT (
track
, jk, 2 vt, 2 scum), or we elim a scum (and math is trivial). there's also the option that a scum suicides to get the JK to claim.
Don't fall for this. Just eliminate a Jailkeeper claim day two.
n2 tracker is blocked and let's say another vt is shot.
track
, jk, 1 vt, 2 scum.
d3 is power role claiming day. 50/50 shot at winning this. if we win this then the tracker dies due to jailkeeper blockage but we now have a confirmed jailkeeper who is the kingmaker in this situation.
A3
– no claim d1, vt mislim. 2 mason, 4 vt, 2 scum.
n1 either a vt or a mason dies. in VT case it's 2 mason 3 vt 2 scum. in mason case then we'll have a confirmed
mason
, 4 vt, 2 scum.
d2 then we have the cop claim strategy:
mason, mason
, 3 vt, 2 scum. 40% chance to nail a scum and then math is trivial, but still excellent odds from here on out.
B1
– tracker claims d1, we miseliminate a Townie.
track
, FN, 4 VT, 2 scum.
n1 either Tracker or VT dies.
Track
, FN, 3 VT, 2 Scum, or FN, 4 VT, 2 Scum.
d2 then someone claims the FN message.
Track
, FN, 2 VT, 2 Scum, or
Track
, FN, 3 VT, or 1 Scum.
n2 then the Tracker dies. FN, 2 VT, 2 Scum, or FN, 3 VT, 1 Scum.
d3 then the FN can claim with 2 people backing it up.
FN
,
softclear 2 players from 2 VT, 2 Scum
, or
FN
,
softclear 1 VT
, and one player from 2 VT, 1 Scum. Math is trivial.