Mini Normal 2223 | Town Wins!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Seeing it was N_M and DGB so far that have flipped, whoever the third scum is was entirely alone D1, and was probably alone in choosing the NK. Personally I think this points the most towards Marci and Dwlee, but if Salsabil is town the play has just been atrocious. I couldn't make sense of it.

If I had to pick one player right now I really dont know. I was reading a lot of Roden overnight once I realized that the scumflips meant the third scum was essentially alone due to DGB and N_M's activity. This led me towards either Marci or Dwlee, as Roden was pushing on them both and was TRing DGB until I wagoned it. He was blind to DGB until I pointed it out. Before that, he was pressuring Marci and a little bit Dwlee, but my impression was it was mostly pressure on Marci. He came back around to pushing Dwlee in twilight, going so far as to tell him to "enjoy his babysit" iirc. I dont have my notes handy atm.

I still think we can look at the FN crumb and the Babysitter claim and question why it was Roden over a PR, and why was it Roden over me? It's easy to say Roden over me because I'm scum, but I found a readslist of Roden's that I think is kinda my salvation. He has me, DGB, as high TRs, and N_M as a townlean. Why do I, in that situation, flashwagon DGB at the end of the day and then kill a widely TRed player that considered me a part of their townblock? I, as scum, would probably shoot Titus there to kill the Babysitter while there are more town available and she is statistically more likely to target town than mafia.

So it comes back to, why was Roden killed over a PR? Easy enough to say if they saw the FN crumb that they figured Titus would have too, and thought she could protect Manatee. Also easy enough to say the last scum didnt want to risk being targeted by Titus. I think Roden was killed because he was pushing Dwlee and Marci. If he was killed for being TRed it would have been me, so there must have been another reason.

[MathBlade]

She either A> has some software to read that many games that quickly >> In this case why not Not Mafia?
B> She spent read a lot of my games >> In this case why not Not Mafia who usually has way less of a post count.
Or C > The argument was preprepared in advance and she couldn’t build a similar one for Not Mafia.

Is it possible she is town of course? Probable is a whole nother matter and I just don’t see that.

[MathBlade]

Seeing it was N_M and DGB so far that have flipped, whoever the third scum is was entirely alone D1, and was probably alone in choosing the NK. Personally I think this points the most towards Marci and Dwlee, but if Salsabil is town the play has just been atrocious. I couldn't make sense of it.

If I had to pick one player right now I really dont know. I was reading a lot of Roden overnight once I realized that the scumflips meant the third scum was essentially alone due to DGB and N_M's activity. This led me towards either Marci or Dwlee, as Roden was pushing on them both and was TRing DGB until I wagoned it. He was blind to DGB until I pointed it out. Before that, he was pressuring Marci and a little bit Dwlee, but my impression was it was mostly pressure on Marci. He came back around to pushing Dwlee in twilight, going so far as to tell him to "enjoy his babysit" iirc. I dont have my notes handy atm.

I still think we can look at the FN crumb and the Babysitter claim and question why it was Roden over a PR, and why was it Roden over me? It's easy to say Roden over me because I'm scum, but I found a readslist of Roden's that I think is kinda my salvation. He has me, DGB, as high TRs, and N_M as a townlean. Why do I, in that situation, flashwagon DGB at the end of the day and then kill a widely TRed player that considered me a part of their townblock? I, as scum, would probably shoot Titus there to kill the Babysitter while there are more town available and she is statistically more likely to target town than mafia.

So it comes back to, why was Roden killed over a PR? Easy enough to say if they saw the FN crumb that they figured Titus would have too, and thought she could protect Manatee. Also easy enough to say the last scum didnt want to risk being targeted by Titus. I think Roden was killed because he was pushing Dwlee and Marci. If he was killed for being TRed it would have been me, so there must have been another reason.

I think the simple answer is you shot her to avoid potentially being guarded for leading the DGB wagon.

If we assume not you then it would probably have to me someone not attentive and I don’t know Salsa and Marci enough to make that determination but probably not Dwleee

[ssbm_Kyouko]

The one thing giving me pause on is would scum!Kyo be that obvious there? Too scummy to be scum?

I don’t think it’s too scummy to be scum there. Too scummy to be scum would be an outright defense. What Kyo did was continually suggest other people.

I did this twice in Owners Market Blitz. Once on D1, Gamma was bussing his partner and I argued that Kitty (his partner) seemed like the "default" elimination. I fought for it to be anyone but Kitty, even directly appealed to Gamma to vote out a townie instead, and he didn't budge. I got flak for it from Nancy all game and I lived to MELO with Nancy, Marci, and Something_Smart

In MELO, I cased everyone. I wrote walls upon walls on every player, and I almost died for it because I was pushing everyone. In the end, Nancy and I caught S_S, but it was too late and we missed deadline and got a no elim. S_S killed Nancy and nearly convinced Marci to vote me out in ELO. But we won it. I'm a bit paranoid that scum!Marci is looking to imitate her OMB play in this game to trick me because I did TR her yesterday.

[MathBlade]

The one thing giving me pause on is would scum!Kyo be that obvious there? Too scummy to be scum?

I don’t think it’s too scummy to be scum there. Too scummy to be scum would be an outright defense. What Kyo did was continually suggest other people.

I did this twice in Owners Market Blitz. Once on D1, Gamma was bussing his partner and I argued that Kitty (his partner) seemed like the "default" elimination. I fought for it to be anyone but Kitty, even directly appealed to Gamma to vote out a townie instead, and he didn't budge. I got flak for it from Nancy all game and I lived to MELO with Nancy, Marci, and Something_Smart

In MELO, I cased everyone. I wrote walls upon walls on every player, and I almost died for it because I was pushing everyone. In the end, Nancy and I caught S_S, but it was too late and we missed deadline and got a no elim. S_S killed Nancy and nearly convinced Marci to vote me out in ELO. But we won it. I'm a bit paranoid that scum!Marci is looking to imitate her OMB play in this game to trick me because I did TR her yesterday.

Link me?

I will take a look Sunday, but I think you’re the most probable atm. I will take a look and see but I have thought for the longest time that there’s a deep wolf and this really matches. I am really scared of the world if you’re town here

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Salsa speaks English as a second language so wordplay like "I can be friendly" is something she could easily not pick up on.

Marci is easily confused. I dont know if that correlates, but I believe she could have missed it. There weren't any softs to pick up on in OMB, so I dont know if she would notice them or not. My gut instinct is to say she could have missed it.

Dwlee knew about the crumb as is evidenced at the start of D2

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Owners Market Blitz

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I also knew about the crumb because it was addressed to me and I immediately switched gears when Manatee crumbed to me. I think someone missed it tbh because if they didnt miss it they should have shot me.

I do kind of agree that shooting Titus on N2 is hard for Dwlee to do though when she seemed to be torn between him and omo during that day, even if she was more settled on omo at the end of Day.

[Dwlee99]

I would never kill Titus N2 there. The "not mafia is a jailkeeper and protected dwlee" theory is dead now.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

ALSO in OMB, I catch Gamma in essentially the same way that I catch DGB. I get to a stall in the game where my reads-based POE doesn't make sense anymore. I realize something is wrong and reassess (in this game I point put there is a hole in my reads somewhere), and I catch him off of an ISO read out of the blue. Same way as DGB. I think it is clearly not a bus by me

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I would never kill Titus N2 there. The "not mafia is a jailkeeper and protected dwlee" theory is dead now.

Did I say that?

[Dwlee99]

I would never kill Titus N2 there. The "not mafia is a jailkeeper and protected dwlee" theory is dead now.

Did I say that?

I thought so? You were saying NM could be a scum! jailkeeper with me and maybe I just extrapolated from that that it would explain the Titus kill if I was mafia?

[marcistar]

I'm a bit paranoid that scum!Marci is looking to imitate her OMB play in this game to trick me because I did TR her yesterday.

im not trying to imitate anything this is just natural sis

Marci is easily confused. I dont know if that correlates, but I believe she could have missed it. There weren't any softs to pick up on in OMB, so I dont know if she would notice them or not. My gut instinct is to say she could have missed it.

im... not sure either.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I would never kill Titus N2 there. The "not mafia is a jailkeeper and protected dwlee" theory is dead now.

Did I say that?

I thought so? You were saying NM could be a scum! jailkeeper with me and maybe I just extrapolated from that that it would explain the Titus kill if I was mafia?

I didn't remember saying it in those words exactly but I did think about it, considering Titus and I just did the same to Cyrus when he a combined BS Vig and we had a Jailkeeper on our scumteam in that large. I dont think this is a TMI, I probably said it, but couldn't find it on my phone.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Not unreasonable to extrapolate that

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Spoiler: N_M meta

Lmao, just went to read some N_M games and the first one I open is a nightless micro where he gets hammered on page 1 as VT

Still looking, just thought I'd share.

This is also the extent of her attempting to meta Not Mafia versus say me.

For me she seems to be trying to find anything to scumify me and when it didn’t work she backed off.

It’s more like she’s scum who didn’t like I had her buddy pinned.

The reason for this is mainly I didnt expect to find anything useful. I've heard of N_M, I know hes a shitpost bot, and I figured there would be no point in metaing him. I had also decided already that I would eliminate him at deadline, and I didnt need to convince anyone to eliminate him since he was already E-1. I wasn't prioritizing him because it seemed a wasted effort since I'd be on him in the end anyways.

If scum, I would have just bussed N_M yesterday with little affair. There was no point in fighting it as hard as I did.

[ManateeDude]

im of the opinion that especially with a N_M flip it is most plausible that one of salsa or marci is the last scum given that kyo saw my friendly nerighbour soft and those two seem the most likely to miss it, as N_M definitely did.
the combination of N1 kill and kyo being the founder of the DGB wagon makes me sure she doesnt flip scum here

[ManateeDude]

salsa>marci wins us the game i think

[ManateeDude]

VOTE: salsa

[MathBlade]

@Kyo how did Not Mafia flipping goon change your reads if at all?

[marcistar]

im of the opinion that especially with a N_M flip it is most plausible that one of salsa or marci is the last scum

breaking my heart

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@Kyo how did Not Mafia flipping goon change your reads if at all?

His flip confirms to me you are not scum, reasoning already posted. Me being wrong on him triggered me to reread again as I was wrong on him, so I figured I could be wrong on others.

Most notably from my reread I saw Saudade try to get something started on N_M on D1, I believe off the back of the marcistar or Roden wagon, but I'd have to go back and check again. Either way it indicates he was uninformed imo.

With the N_M flip I realized the last scum was likely isolated on D1 due to the activity of DGB and N_M. They didnt have active team resources to collaborate on directing the gamestate, so it makes sense to me that the N1 kill was selected solely because it would benefit the last remaining scum. When I reached that conclusion I decided to focus on Roden's iso. What I'm having trouble with though is that Roden's ISO points one way: (marci, dwlee were his points of focus), and Salsa is just completely separated from the action on D1 with the self-vote. She was overruled on Max iirc, but I'll have to continue to reread and see how she reacted to that.

It would be great if we could just go Salsa>Marci and win, but I finally got the mini 2216 scum pt unlocked and it's troubling how closely dwlee's planning in the scum thread there lines up with how he's playing here. Most notably in buddying up to powertown!Math, and the way he keeps the deepwolf in mind. In that game, his idea in the PT was to push that the D1 wagon on scum was all town, because he was on the wagon.

In this game, he was off the wagon and is keeping the deepwolf idea fresh in our minds. It's not just him though, I had been entertaining the idea Math could be deep wolfing, and Math is the one that brought it up in the first place and has also been keeping the idea fresh. Dwlee and Salsa stand to gain from that idea being fresh in towns mind, that there is a deepwolf on the wagon. We would naturally be inclined to suspect myself, math, and Marci. The thing is though, Dwlee is not trying to ram my lim through despite what I did yesterday. It could be because scum!dwlee will try it in MELO, but I think that's just paranoia. I think Salsabil's posturing at the end of yesterDay is the most scummy.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I will say though that I've seen town!dwlee buddy up with powertown and sheep them as well. It's just his style as a player and it makes it hard to know if he's scum based on that alone.

[MathBlade]

salsa>marci wins us the game i think

See I am pretty sure it’s not Dwlee, my gut says to go along with Salsa or Marci, but I am scared of you powerwolfing Kyo from a logical standpoint.

Can you give me your best deep wolf game to read Sunday?

[Dwlee99]

Marci vote parking on DGB is indicative of something and I can't figure out what.