Newbie 2074 | Game Over

[Ythan]

We have an advantage if the doctor survives tonight in that the scum will have to fake counter claim doctor, but you're trying to out the doctor today which would mean they can't possibly survive the night.

[Dannflor]

I'm around, but waiting to see what Val's immediate thoughts are what they wanna do today

Ythan, do you have an immediate gut scum read coming into the day? or are you pretty unsure

[Ythan]

You or Strange.

[Dannflor]

why did val go up so much for you?

[Ythan]

Val's never really been scummy he was just annoying me earlier.

[StrangeMatter]

We have an advantage if the doctor survives tonight in that the scum will have to fake counter claim doctor, but you're trying to out the doctor today which would mean they can't possibly survive the night.

And if the doctor doesn't survive, what then?

[StrangeMatter]

Because now you still have a 1v2 with the exact same results.

[Dannflor]

no I'll wait until tomorrow

if I die I die

Not forgetting this.

I will explain this but I'm tentatively town reading Val again

[Dannflor]

We have an advantage if the doctor survives tonight in that the scum will have to fake counter claim doctor, but you're trying to out the doctor today which would mean they can't possibly survive the night.

And if the doctor doesn't survive, what then?

then we're in the same situation as we would be if the doctor claimed today?

[Ythan]

We have an advantage if the doctor survives tonight in that the scum will have to fake counter claim doctor, but you're trying to out the doctor today which would mean they can't possibly survive the night.

And if the doctor doesn't survive, what then?

then we're in the same situation as we would be if the doctor claimed today?

Except that it's guaranteed if we out the doctor smh

[Val89]

So, we have started the day with Dannflor starting the day by saying he is waiting for me to chime in before he does so, but asks Ythan for his thoughts, and the follow up makes clear the important thoughts are the ones on my slot. When those thoughts are that Ythan never really thought I was scummy, the next thing is Dann saying he is townreading me again.

Is there any way to take that interaction other than a scum Dannflor testing the waters, there? What town reason would there be for Dann withholding until I come online?

It's a serious question, because I thought Dann's scum equity shot up in a big way after Leaven gave his result; and I made so secret of the fact in the twilight phase yesterday. It seems the defining feature about my slot is that I was the one that was SR Dannflor by the end of yesterday. Even if it's a case of "I want everyone else to check in before I go", I can quite obviously see how that benefits scum, I don't see what advantage town players get by doing so.

[Dannflor]

Val, did you get what I was talking about EoD there?

[Dannflor]

What town reason would there be for Dann withholding until I come online?

it really feels like you're only thinking about things one dimensionally sometimes

I think I might be wrong on you

I need to see if you've also been thinking about things through the night and if so where those thoughts have led you

[StrangeMatter]

@Leaven, do you have any thoughts so far? You're confirmed as town at this point.

[Dannflor]

SM, what are your reads right now?

[StrangeMatter]

Right now I think it's between you and Val at this point. The only thing that I can roughly say why I don't want to eliminate Ythan is from the Salsa wagon day one. This is because to me, the only slots left on it are me and Ythan, and Gamma flipped red. I don't think the other scum would end up being also on this if scum and town eliminated most people on that wagon at this point.

[StrangeMatter]

I could be completely wrong and the second scum is on the wagon, but that's just what I think so far.

[Dannflor]

if you had to choose one between me and val right now with no further discusison, who would it be and why?

[StrangeMatter]

if you had to choose one between me and val right now with no further discusison, who would it be and why?

From #810 I kind of see Val's point about how that you could be testing the water. Especially since from reading your posts you think scum is Me/Gamma and Val84/Gamma, and you backtracked on that and went into tentatively town reading Val84 in post #807. However, there's parts to it that I'm not quite getting that seem odd to be bringing up into this. He talks about you withholding, but I'm not sure how that ties into this in the first place.

Another thing I noted is #771 and #776 are very odd to me. These two posts just seem like the contradict each other just from what I've seen. You talked about not giving scum more information if its not C1, then afterwards say that scum already knows the setup. That doesn't quite add up and doesn't make sense. Why would you make posts that seems to shut down discussion, then suddenly turn 180 and say its fine to be discussing because scum already knows?

So I'm just saying that I'm scumreading you, Dannflor, over Val84 for right now. But if you aren't Gamma's partner then its probably Val then.

[StrangeMatter]

@Val84, what do you mean by "withhelding" in #810?

[Dannflor]

Okay, I'll spell it out. It is bad to discuss what setup we are most likely in because it gives scum more information to doctor-hunt with in the event we're in A1. Yes, if we are in A1, then scum knew that was the case the instant that Leaven claimed. However, they would not know who the doctor is. Continuing to be like "I think it's more likely we're in C1," or talking about the likelihood of a doctor *at all* only benefits scum. Yes, you can introduce WIFOM to the equation but the more information you introduce the easier it will be for mafia to find the doctor if there is one. Frankly, I do not trust people to not slip and essentially claim that they aren't doctor, thus narrowing the pool scum can shoot in. I don't trust that players can successfully lie or seem ambiguous about whether or not they aren't.

There is really no benefit to discussing the likelihood of a doctor as far as I can see, it only serves to give scum more info and generates nothing for town. Yes, scum know the setup. They don't know who the doctor is, if there is one.

This is why I was so upset at Val and pretty much everyone at the end of last day. No one seemed to realize it and there seemed to be a host of people practically claiming they weren't a doctor. Of course, it doesn't matter if we're in C1. And I think all of scum's night kills tend to point towards C1 (ugh I'm doing the thing I warned against), but it's just incorrect to play as if that were absolutely the case. Anyway, if there is a doctor, they should claim when they get to e-1 and no sooner.

I was really surprised Ythan hadn't already put this together,.

sorry for my hastiness before I was mostly just trying to squash any "well what if leaven is lying" paranoias without proper proof

Sure you weren't TMI'ing that you knew the Gamma guilty was legit, and there would be no CC?

I know you've been very quick to quickly spash that you think one of me (previously one of your highest townreads) and SM look good for gammas partner, but for myself, its actually your (dannflor) interactions with the slot that look the worst to me.

I wanted to get that out there now before the lock.

I thought this post was scummy originally because it seemed to put no thought into which world we are actually in. In fact, Val here seems to assume there isn't another town PR in the game. Since the only people who know the setup for sure are scum, I thought Val might have been slipping here. I think my interactions with Gamma are pretty silly if I were partners with him, but that aside, the real kicker is what if I was the doctor? I thought that to accuse me of TMI'ing without first considering that there's a possible town PR that might also behave similarly showed that Val knew we were in C1 instead of A1. Which would, uh, make him scum

but since then I've been thinking about it and I think it's more likely I overreacted to this in the heat of the moment. especially considering I was so annoyed for not getting why repeatedly talking about a doctor gave more info to scum. In the end, I think scum would want to be a lot more deliberate about being careful whether they showcase knowledge of the setup or not, *especially* with so many people conjecturing about the setup. right? Val seems pretty selfaware too, so I think the sudden jump to assuming I was TMI'ing rather than just having a PR read on Leaven, or being the possible doctor, or not wanting people to give away too much information is a sign of excited town rather than scum showcasing his knowledge of the setup

also ythan didn't even get why I was saying to shut up, no one did really. sushi wouldn't stop talking about it either so like. I guess I was alone in wanting that and not realizing that isn't really scummy either

[Dannflor]

generally I think Val's push of ythan and pretty much the way he's approached every slot this game has been from an excitable town "gotcha" standpoint rather than informed scum, I actually think scum in his position would be a lot more careful especially yesterday

[Dannflor]

Now, I am less sure on ythan. However, my gut pretty much the whole game has also told me ythan is town.

I could be wrong there. I think it sucks that he had so much inactivity in the middle of the game. but generally I think his reactions have been towny?

Let's look at Gamma now. Gamma enters the game buddying up to Val and suspecting Ythan. As a very general rule, scum don't really want to do either of those with their buddies coming into the game, unless their buddies are already in a particularly bad or good spot. As of Gamma's entrance, I don't believe enough game content had been generated to really put Val or Ythan in particularly good or bad spots.

Gamma continues to push Ythan in #412, #418, #423, #427, #431, and #444. It's a pretty hard push all things considered. Ythan is not a bad player. His wagon had melted before Gamma had replaced in. I doubt Gamma would have felt the need to bus this hard coming into the game. Now, it's not an impossibility that they could be partners. I have some lingering doubt because Gamma never actually voted ythan, but I find it unlikely.

It's also usually unlikely for scum to vote one after another on a miselimination. Again, not impossible. But scum, whether intentionally or unintentionally, usually try to spread out and not concentrate on a single wagon.

[Dannflor]

okay actually I wrote that post thinking that I was going to conclude that I still think SM is scum... but I'm starting to have doubts. I'm starting to think that maybe Gamma's read of SM was a TMI town read?

Just going to get the backlash to the comment out the way:
UNVOTE: ClarkBar
VOTE: JamesTheNames

UNVOTE: StrangeMatter

VOTE: JamesTheNames

I'd like you to say more about the topic other than just showing "this is a really bad move, and this is the reason I'm going to vote him."

first good post of the game I think

@cowsloveSushirolls

when people act familiar with me when I'm not familiar with them, it makes me feel awkward, like I'm supposed to remember them but I don't
if you were to specify how you know me (or if that was just general excitement) I'd be chill

Assuming I'm wrong about this, it'll look absolutely bad that I said that.

It's probably a town thing to say, but why would you cut the legs off of your own stance here?

@Dannflor can you please explain why you scumread both me and Leaven? I saw your post but you never really said why.

I myself am surprised by it because y'all were my first two TRs
but I also don't know whether I should ACTUALLY be surprised given recent experience with Dann

VOTE: Leaven
I still think SM is probably town so if we're moving to SM/Leaven as dueling wagons I'd prefer leaven
PEdit: apparently y'all think I was voting Leaven already, k

Man, I'm not super hot on Leaven as scum.

Why do you think SM is town, Gamma?

Eh there’s some

vibes

mostly
But I also think they’ve been kinda solvy in a way that feels genuine, even though I feel like their overall presence is kinda low

these posts all feel super... brazen? like if I were Gamma with SM as a partner, someone who isn't too town read and not too scum read, but has a decent amount of suspicion on them and is likely to come under a lot of pressure sooner rather than later... would I be interacting/town reading them like this? probably not

scum tend to like to do this thing where they get overconfident and don't elaborate as much on reasoning when they *know* they're right. gamma never gave many reasons for SM town beyond *vibes*. that looks bad if SM flips scum. I think a Gamma/SM team expects SM to flip first if either of them do. but if SM is town, gamma can gets a little cred from vibe reading SM as town. continuing to do this even as wagons shifted to leaven/SM seems... very un partnery imo

from my experience with scum!Gamma, he's a lot more likely to bus in general

[Dannflor]

Right now I think it's between you and Val at this point. The only thing that I can roughly say why I don't want to eliminate Ythan is from the Salsa wagon day one. This is because to me, the only slots left on it are me and Ythan, and Gamma flipped red. I don't think the other scum would end up being also on this if scum and town eliminated most people on that wagon at this point.

this is a salient point

I wish it applied to SM more but it's kind of hard to since I feel like their vote on the wagon didn't really count

still, I do think it is a solid point for town!ythan