FFVII Mafia: Over

[armlx]

Just a question:

Did anyone here honestly believe xtoxm's second claim yesterday? I'm talking about being over 50% sure he was telling the truth, voting me to "test the cop" doesn't count.

[GhostWriter]

My change fell under the "test the cop" way of thinking, as I said when I said that it'd make sense to do so logically. Thus is why I changed again when ABR came forward, because I didn't trust Xtoxm's earlier play, and just needed that push to go back to him.

[armlx]

That's pretty much what I'm thinking, I don't actually think anyone here believed xtoxm was more likely telling the truth then lying.

[Dead Rikimaru]

Vote Count Number Eleven: The 'IF I AM GOING TO BE THE ONLY ONE COUNTING VOTES I WILL START COUNTING THEM MY WAY' votecount

Albert B. Rampage - 6

(

DynamoXI, Zac, Grimmy, MBPikamon, TonyMontana, kloud1516

)

CallMeLiam - 6

(

Zakeri, iamausername, Albert B. Rampage, Cavebear with a toothache, wolframnhart, armlx

)

MBPikamon - 1

(

Empking

)

Zakeri - 0

Zac - 0

armlx - 0

iamausername - 0

wolframnhart - 0

Jebus - 0

Empking - 0

Cludsy - 0

Grimmy - 0
Yosarian2 - 0
kloud1516 - 0
SpamWise - 0
DynamoXI - 0
GhostWriter - 0
MrBuddyLee - 0
TonyMontana - 0
christiano drago - 0
Westbrook_Owns_U - 0
Cavebear with a toothache - 0

With 22 alive, it takes

12

to lynch.

[Elias_the_thief]

Prods sent to:

Westbrook_Owns_U, Zac, MrBuddyLee, SpamWise, Cludsy, iamausername, MBPikamon, DynamoXI, callmeliam, and christiano drago.

Anyone else in need of a prod that I missed? With this level of inactivity I'm considering moving deadline up.

---

Apologies DR, I thought you just liked doing them.

[MrBuddyLee]

I think the problem with this game is that when an attention-whore like Albert fakeclaims and gets a townie killed, it utterly demoralizes the town. We can't possibly read a thing from the fake-guilty, because not a single player in the game had any reason to believe Xtoxm was not scum. Scum would simply assume he was in another scumgroup.

So we learned next to nothing from yesterday. Good job Albert, hope you got the attention you were looking for. We're basically stuck with a second Day One. Yay.

[armlx]

I think the problem with this game is that when an attention-whore like Albert fakeclaims and gets a townie killed, it utterly demoralizes the town. We can't possibly read a thing from the fake-guilty, because not a single player in the game had any reason to believe Xtoxm was not scum. Scum would simply assume he was in another scumgroup.

So we learned next to nothing from yesterday. Good job Albert, hope you got the attention you were looking for. We're basically stuck with a second Day One. Yay.

I'm interested.

1) Why is the data unusable from the fluctuations between wagons and other actions regarding them?

2) Why is ABR the one who caused this "second D1"?

[MrBuddyLee]

Typically, the way you have info on D2 from actions on D1 is because there were a few competing wagons and then one of them got lynched. You see their alignment and can determine who was trying to save them if they're scum and who was irrationally trying to bury them if they were town. But you need uncertainty D1 to make that happen.

Albert claimed a guilty, making absolutely everything that happened after that point worthless. And anything before that point would have yielded better results if we actually got to see who was willing to lynch an uninvestigated xtoxm as opposed to another candidate. We never got that chance. It was a fractional day at best, and we never got to see true intent to lynch before the phony guilty.

A one week D1 in a 25 person game? Tainted by a phony guilty? Useless.

[armlx]

There were competing wagons for a while before that.

[Zakeri]

I agree with Armlx. We may not be able to devise a perfect lynch from what happened on day one, but we already have determined a lot from some of the actions before ABR Claimed and Even afterwards. It's not completely useless, and it should not be dismissed so haphazardly.

[Empking]

I didn't have more than 50% belief that Xtoxm was telling the truth.

Day 1 wasn't useless but it wasn't as useful as it should've been.

[iamausername]

Yeah, I definitely didn't have that strong a belief in Xtoxm's claim at any point. I still had more than I should have done though, in retrospect. It ought to have been damn obvious that he was lying.

I understand MBL's frustration, but I think he's overstating the degree to which ABR's claim screwed up our info gain from D1. Even after he claimed a guilty on Xtoxm, there were still reactions worth looking into. Like, say, this:

I'd still prefer we test the cop that claimed first or lynch Zac.

[christiano drago]

Didn't expect a prod tbh, but I just checked and yeah, five pages of inactivity is a bit much.

I'm going to carry on right where I left off and once again try and throw a spotlight on Zac because he hasn't said a thing since he was FoS'd and I think he wasted Forbiddanlight.

vote: Zac

-Because he had a scuffle with forbiddanlight.
-Forbiddanlight was wasted on N1.
-Because he hasn't posted since he was suspected.

I'd not say this was a solid vote from me, it's capable of swaying but when someone is suspicious of you and you're town aligned, nine-times-out-of-ten you post to explain why you seemed suspicious and clear it up.

So Zac - *throws the ball in to your court*.

[Cludsy]

Vote: Call me Liam

I'm not going to reiterate all the reasons that have been stated above me, but I beleive he is our best case at the present time.

[MrBuddyLee]

His statement of wanting to "test the cop who claims first" makes absolutely no sense. There is no reason why the order that Xtoxm and ABR claimed in should have made a difference. If he'd said he didn't believe ABR's claim, that would be different, but he never gave any indication that he didn't believe the claim, just that he wanted to ignore it until Xtoxm's claim was tested.

This isn't a terrible observation.. Liam, why did you want to test xtoxm instead of ABR?

[kloud1516]

QFT.

unvote

for now, while I look at others. Tunnel vision on my part isn't going to help us out.

[kloud1516]

EBWOP:

I agree with Armlx. We may not be able to devise a perfect lynch from what happened on day one,

but we already have determined a lot from some of the actions before ABR Claimed and Even afterwards. It's not completely useless, and it should not be dismissed so haphazardly.

QFT ^^.

unvote

for now, while I look at others. Tunnel vision on my part isn't going to help us out.

[MrBuddyLee]

kloud, you think yesterday provided us with useful information that shouldn't be disregarded haphazardly. Well, here's you from yesterday:

FoS: xtoxm

I will go back and point out exactly what posts I do not like, which will most likely parallel posts already quoted by others, but I feel it would be beneficial for me to do so anyways.

At the moment, I am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and see whether or not your day cop claim is true by going along with the suggestion of lynching either you or armlx. I would much rather not risk losing a power role so early in the game, and so I will

vote: armlx

.

And today you FOSed armlx but didn't vote. And now you voted for a policy lynch on ABR instead, waiting to see if it would gather momentum. And while you babbled on for ages about Barrett and character names vs. power roles, you haven't even touched on ABR's Cid claim.

I don't think you're trying terribly hard to find scum. You're trying to look like you suspect armlx, but you're not following through. And you're a little too willing to lynch ABR, who you don't really find scummy.

vote: kloud

[kloud1516]

kloud, you think yesterday provided us with useful information that shouldn't be disregarded haphazardly. Well, here's you from yesterday:

FoS: xtoxm

I will go back and point out exactly what posts I do not like, which will most likely parallel posts already quoted by others, but I feel it would be beneficial for me to do so anyways.

At the moment, I am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and see whether or not your day cop claim is true by going along with the suggestion of lynching either you or armlx. I would much rather not risk losing a power role so early in the game, and so I will

vote: armlx

.

And today you FOSed armlx but didn't vote.

And now you

voted for a policy lynch on ABR instead, waiting to see if it would gather momentum.

And while you babbled on for ages about Barrett and character names vs. power roles,

you haven't even touched on ABR's Cid claim.

I don't think you're trying terribly hard to find scum.

You're trying to look like you suspect armlx

, but you're not following through.

And you're a little too willing to lynch ABR, who you don't really find scummy

.

vote: kloud

I voted for armlx yesterday due to the fact that I didn't want to vote for xtoxm with the possibility of him being a daycop. The only way to test xtoxm and see if he was telling the truth was to lynch the person he said he had received a guilty result on (armlx). As I said in the post you quoted, I didn't want to risk losing a possible power role Day 1, and so I voted armlx.

I did not immediately vote him today because, as we all know, xtoxm lied about being Day Cop, which was the only reason I had voted armlx in the first place.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________

Addressing the rest of this post/the bolded sections.

1)

I FoSed armlx for reasons given in the post that I did so. Might I also remind you that you FoSed armlx as well; does that FoS still remain or have you found reason to not find him suspicious?

1.a)

I didn't vote armlx immediately starting Day 2 for reasons stated above.

2)

I voted for ABR just to see if the wagon would gain momentum. Really, BuddyLee? If I voted to test the waters of this wagon, then what were you doing with this:

vote: ABR

hmn? I hope you have a fainting couch on hand, for the hypocrisy of this accusation will surely knock you off your feet. While you drop a vote without any reasoning whatsoever, you level claims at me for trying to test wagons. At least when I voted, I provided (in my opinion) ample reasoning for doing so, and, when others commented about it I backed it up. Granted, said players may not have liked the reasonings I gave, but I still

had

reasons. I find it slightly comical you would level accusations at me when in fact your vote screams "opportunistic jump onto the most popular bandwagon."

3)

Do you feel I need to address ABR's Cid claim? There has been no counter-claim, and I have already given my piece about how at the moment I am more inclined to believe that not all major characters are pro-town power roles (which can be found in that constant "babbling" of mine just in case you need to refer to it.) What do you feel I need to address about the fact that ABR claimed Cid? At the moment, there has been no evidence to disprove he is indeed Cid, so I don't believe there is much more to talk about in regards to this.

4)

What makes you say that I am trying too hard to seem suspicious of armlx other than the FoS that you have already brought up? I FoSed several people, and provided statements/reasoning for doing so. One of these players I am still waiting for an answer from (MBPikamon), so would you say that, despite the many posts containing reason I have provided over the span of today, I am simply blowing smoke in everyones' faces and trying to appear suspicious of them as well?

5)

I am too willing to lynch ABR, you say. Got it, for that makes a lot of sense considering I unvoted him right before your post.

Honestly, have you even read the last several pages of the thread? I find your case weak at best, for it just seems to be a string of arguments with no solid foundation whatsoever. You level accusations upon me that you yourself are guilty of, and then attempt to distort the posts I have made thus far in Day 2. Your claims are fallacious and hypocritical, and, in my opinion have been effectively rebutted.

[DynamoXI]

I don't think you're trying terribly hard to find scum. You're trying to look like you suspect armlx, but you're not following through. And you're a little too willing to lynch ABR, who you don't really find scummy.

He did unvote with (what looked to me like) good reason.

[MrBuddyLee]

kloud, you're playing dreadfully.

1) You went down the rabbit hole arguing against "good guys in game = protown" and then in the face of four evidence points to the contrary, shifted your argument to the ridiculously useless "there's no proof the scum will go after major characters".


2)

I expressed that I was voting (ABR) based on utility alone, for I feel the need to rid the game of unhelpful and detrimental players will be the greatest benefit for the town at the moment.

A greater benefit than nailing scum? We're as little as three days from lynch or lose--two days if there's a single scumteam of 4-5.


3) You accuse me of hypocrisy for voting ABR and then accusing you of being scummy for voting ABR. Retarded. I was voting him for 12 hours til I realized a specific mistake I made. You unvoted ABR after a long-term vote with intent. That's way different from what I did, and it's sketchy of you to compare the two.

So anyhow, Cid = good guy or safeclaim, and if ABR is faking Cid we'll find out eventually no matter what. I voted him because I forgot about his nameclaim. Fortunately Cludsy wasn't as hasty as I was. I find it suspect that you're not leaning towards "hero character = protown alignment".


4)

Do you feel I need to address ABR's Cid claim? I have already given my piece about how at the moment I am more inclined to believe that not all major characters are pro-town power roles. What do you feel I need to address about the fact that ABR claimed Cid?

If ABR had not claimed Cid I would be voting him right now. There is no way the maker of this game, who loves FFVII, is going to make Cloud and Tifa bad guys, and Cid is a good guy across several games. I will eat my entire collection of hats he's an evil character--it would be the equivalent of making Rand al'Thor the bad guy in a Wheel of Time game or Luke Skywalker the bad guy in a Star Wars game. Ain't gonna happen.

So yeah, considering you were just voting Cid, I'd like to know whether you think the Barret=town w/ power, Dio=town, Bugenhagen=town, Reno=scum trend should be applied to ABR's and other future claims.

I also think it's suspect that your last FOS was on MBPikamon for this:

Also... about the dead Turk, looks like Xtomx was right about the mafia at least being Shrina, or Shrina related.

Who's to say the major characters aren't scum themselves? We do not know at this point, so I find it interesting that you would, on Day 2 with as little information as we have, be "pretty sure" that major characters would be scum targets.

Duh, it's common sense. Are you trying to imply that MBP didn't use common sense here, he actually just blurted out that his scumteam targeted a major character last night? What a huge stretch you use to try and make MBP look scummy.

Indeed, Reno was/is a Turk, but that might not necessarily mean that they all are. The phrasing of this passage makes me feel as though you have extra information that you are not sharing.

Again, common sense. The Turks are a group of 3-4 in FFVII, and when one comes up scum it makes sense that that goon's leader is also a Turk. if Tseng ain't Reno's scumpartner/godfather I'll be stunned.

[Zakeri]

I agree. Kloud looks way too much like he'd rather discuss what the set-up is like, and what roles are more likely to be town/do what than who is actually scum. I Can't really let this slide, since it's an inherently scummy thing to do.

On top of this, you've been trying to push a lynch against ABR for utility purposes. The Lynch is our weapon, not your toy. You even went so far as to try and dispute the idea that Heros = Pro-town Power roles in an attempt to convince us that it'll be alright to Lynch him, where all of the Evidence of last night points to that truth. You had no basis to believe that, and tried to salvage a failed attempt at a bandwagon.

Unvote: CallMeLiam
FoS: CallMeLiam
Vote: kloud1516

Likewise, I'm not trusting DynamoXI or Tonymotana. I can't say anything for certain on DynamoXI other than the half hearted attempt to defend kloud by pointing out his withdrawing from the ABR Lynch. Tonymotana however has been caught using circular logic to fuel a lynch.

[kloud1516]

kloud, you're playing dreadfully.

1) You went down the rabbit hole

arguing against "good guys in game = protown"

and then

in the face of four evidence points to the contrary,

shifted your argument to the ridiculously useless

"there's no proof the scum will go after major characters."

In case you didn't notice, my argument wasn't specifically negating the idea that the good guys within the game would definitely not be pro-town. My case was that I felt there possibility of main players being a mixture of town and scum as well. Based off of the information we had there was no way to prove or disprove that all the "good guys" would be town, and because of this I felt that it would be unwise to take everything at face value. Is the idea of the main characters being pro-town the most logical? Yes; I believe it is, but there are always other possibilities--which was the point I was trying to make. Not looking at all possibilities before tossing out the ones that are invalid based on information accumulated would be/still is unwise in my opinon--which is what I was trying to say.

Could you please identify the four evidence points you are referring to for me please? I am assuming you are talking about the fact that:

1) Bugenhagen was town
2) Barret was town
3) Dio was town
4) ?

If this is not the case, then please let me know, but I would like you to list them for the sake of clarity.

Furthermore, you are incorrect when saying I shifted my argument. My first lengthy post of Day 2 consisted of me questioning MB about why he was pretty sure major characters would be definite scum targets. I had made no case at this point, but had merely posed this question to him. The reason for me asking this was because he was "pretty sure" about it, and I had not understood why. My reasoning for this was because, as I have already pointed out, I believed/still wont cast aside the idea that main characters would be a mixture of scum and town.

Posing this idea as a case did not come into play until Cavebear responded to it in post 560, at which time, we discussed it further, which I am sure you have taken the time to read as opposed to just skimming it over.

Conclusion part I:

You [based on the wording of your argument] say that I try to refute the idea that good players will be town in this game. This was/is false, for I was just listing another scenario I thought could be possible.

You say that, once having this argument rebutted by four points of evidence--which you fail to specify--that I jumped ship of that argument and took up another one. This is also misleading, for I did not simply switch to a new argument once others began to attack the first train of thought; a fact that can be seen should anyone look back at the thread. I posed this question to MB after having reread Day 1 and what content had been submitted Day 2, not once people started to attack me saying that "game alignment might not necessarily be indicative of alignment in this game" thought process.

2)

I expressed that I was voting (ABR) based on utility alone, for I feel the need to rid the game of unhelpful and detrimental players will be the greatest benefit for the town at the moment.

A greater benefit than nailing scum? We're as little as three days from lynch or lose--two days if there's a single scumteam of 4-5.

I believe that being unhelpful and unpredictability are facets of game play that can often be more dangerous than scumminess. I realize that you, and many others, disagree on this point, but I am not simply going to change my opinion on this just to appease you. I felt/still feel that lynching someone with a track record of being unpredictable in games would be most beneficial to town, for such play is only a distraction and a hindrance to scum hunting efforts. Without this presence, we would be able to more effectively catch scum.

3) You accuse me of hypocrisy for voting ABR and then accusing you of being scummy for voting ABR. Retarded. I was voting him for 12 hours til I realized a specific mistake I made. You unvoted ABR after a long-term vote with intent. That's way different from what I did, and it's sketchy of you to compare the two.

No, I accuse you of hypocrisy for labeling my vote on him as an attempt to test the ABR wagon, when you dropped a vote on him without ANY REASONING WHATSOEVER. I provided justification for my vote. You did not. That is a big difference in my opinion, especially when trying to gauge who is actually testing wagons. Your statement is hypocritical because of your lack of intent, for to me the vote looks more than anything to be one of mere opportunity.

In addition, I unvoted ABR to, instead of assuming a tunnel-vision perspective of one person, look at others in hopes of finding suspicious behavior.

So anyhow, Cid = good guy or safeclaim, and if ABR is faking Cid we'll find out eventually no matter what.

I voted him because I forgot about his nameclaim.

Fortunately Cludsy wasn't as hasty as I was. I find it suspect that you're not leaning towards "hero character = protown alignment".

You voted him because you forgot about the name claim . . .

Yeah, if you are going to try to use you not remembering that he was Cid as justification for your vote, you might as well just stop here. You gave no reason for your vote, and saying that you forgot the name claim, after providing all this content in which you emphasize how important ABR being Cid stands out quite a bit.

4)

Do you feel I need to address ABR's Cid claim? I have already given my piece about how at the moment I am more inclined to believe that not all major characters are pro-town power roles. What do you feel I need to address about the fact that ABR claimed Cid?

So yeah, considering you were just voting Cid, I'd like to know whether you think the Barret=town w/ power, Dio=town, Bugenhagen=town, Reno=scum trend should be applied to ABR's and other future claims.

No, I feel that instead of focusing on this trend, we should be apply scrutiny to the player/claim in question and the events leading up to the claim in addition to analyzing the said player’s actions, gauging whether or not they acted scummy or not. If said player claims a main character, I do not feel that they should be let off the hook just because of their character, nor do I feel that characters which are in the game should be immediately condemned. I think we should apply focus to the actions and the player, not just their character.

I also think it's suspect that your last FOS was on MBPikamon for this:

Also... about the dead Turk, looks like Xtomx was right about the mafia at least being Shrina, or Shrina related.

Who's to say the major characters aren't scum themselves? We do not know at this point, so I find it interesting that you would, on Day 2 with as little information as we have, be "pretty sure" that major characters would be scum targets.

First off, the response you quoted from me isn’t even addressing the part of MB’s post that you provide above. You might want to make that, in the future, quotes correlate correctly to the posts they are responding to.

Duh, it's common sense. Are you trying to imply that MBP didn't use common sense here, he actually just blurted out that his scumteam targeted a major character last night? What a huge stretch you use to try and make MBP look scummy.

You are putting words into my mouth and trying to voice your own interpretations of a question as my own assumptions whilst playing this interpretation off as truth. Don’t. No, I am not implying that common sense was not used here, nor am I implying he “outed his scumteam” for targeting a major character.

MB claimed that he was pretty sure major characters would be the target of scum attacks, and my reasons for questioning him on this have already been addressed at length; both within the back-and-forth with Cavebear that you seem to have only picked through for things that will help your case, and in the content above. To me, while an assumption may seem to be the most logical conclusion, it would be “common sense” not to take anything at face value so early in the game. I thought it stood out that he would be pretty sure of anything with such little information. This all ties in with my preconceived thoughts of there being a mixture of pro-and-anti-town main characters. In my opinion, being pretty sure of anything this early in a game stands out, for to me it implies the person has more information than they are letting on. Does this mean that I automatically assume they are scum? No, of course not, but I felt it needed to be addressed nevertheless.

Indeed, Reno was/is a Turk, but that might not necessarily mean that they all are. The phrasing of this passage makes me feel as though you have extra information that you are not sharing.

Again, common sense. The Turks are a group of 3-4 in FFVII, and when one comes up scum it makes sense that that goon's leader is also a Turk. if Tseng ain't Reno's scumpartner/godfather I'll be stunned.

And again, it may be common sense to you, but I would rather not rule out other possibilities unless provided with evidence to negate it. If another scum that happens to be a Turk is uncovered, then yes, I would agree with you and MB (and all others who believe all Turks are scum now) on this point. Until then, I will be looking at everyone despite possible character claims and build cases base on solid evidence, not following common sense.

I, for one (which probably needs to be emphasized, as everyone will quickly attack this) can see the possibility of Turks being other specific roles besides scum, which could be backed by logic without evidence to support it. Do I assume that this is common sense, and that all other possibilities are invalid? No, which is exactly the point I was trying to make through that whole post in which I interrogated MB; being so certain this early in the game about anything can prove to be the town’s downfall, and as such nothing should be thought of as fact or common sense until we have enough information to back up the assumption.

[kloud1516]

I agree. Kloud looks way too much like he'd rather discuss what the set-up is like, and what roles are more likely to be town/do what than who is actually scum. I Can't really let this slide, since it's an inherently scummy thing to do.

As I just explained, this is not what I was/am doing. I was trying to emphasize the importance of not jumping to conclusions that you feel are 100% truth so early--especially when it comes to set-up. The purpose of continuing to bring up why I feel not all main characters are pro-town is because others continue to ask about it; and I am not just going to avoid responding to their questions. The whole purpose of me voicing this opinion was to drill the importance of focusing not on character claims, but on the actions of players.

If you find someone urging the necessity to focus on one possible hypothesis when there are others to be considered while likewise not deem certain players automatically town because of their character being inherently a scummy move, then your vote is in the right place. In my opinion it is inherently beneficial to town to question and analyze all possible scenarios and players to weed out suspicious behavior from the mesh.

On top of this, you've been trying to push a lynch against ABR for utility purposes. The Lynch is our weapon, not your toy. You even went so far as to try and dispute the idea that Heros = Pro-town Power roles in an attempt to convince us that it'll be alright to Lynch him, where all of the Evidence of last night points to that truth. You had no basis to believe that, and tried to salvage a failed attempt at a bandwagon.

I have NOT been trying to push this wagon. I placed my vote and gave reasons for doing so, but at no point thus far have I encouraged others to place their votes on ABR. When a player commented on my reasoning, I responded to it, so your claim of me pushing the ABR wagon is utterly ridiculous.

I brought up the idea of game alignment not necessarily being indicative of alignment here YESTERDAY, which both you and Lee seem to (coincidentally) be leaving out when you make cases such as the one you make above. I did not try to dispute the idea, but merely proposed the possibility of another one--which I find to be two different things, as I am not trying to negate the one.

You say I have no basis to believe possibilities/theories? To me, this seems like admonishment for speaking my mind and voicing an opinion, which is far more suspicious than anything you have accused me of doing. Isn't that the whole point of developing opposing theories; to use information acquired in order to refute them and figure out which one is most applicable. True, Barret, a main character, was watcher, but seeing as how he has been the only main character that has been killed thus far I feel it is still too early to be jumping to definite conclusions.

This is all explained quite a bit more in post 697.

Lastly, you accuse me of trying to salvage the ABR wagon, despite the fact that I gave reasoning for doing so as opposed to others. Not only this, but don't you think that if I was trying to salvage this wagon my vote would still be on him, and that I would be encouraging others to follow suit?

[TonyMontana]

owing common sense.

I, for one (which probably needs to be emphasized, as everyone will quickly attack this) can see the possibility of Turks being other specific roles besides scum, which could be backed by logic without evidence to support it. Do I assume that this is

I don't wseee this as a probabale scearo for the think if the mafia on the manta on the mana points on HPeeds to be on tmore of a g spot. If clud eeds a sephiroth to to be on barrets team it's not much fun that tifa is aeris friend, knwo=