Newbie 2075: Icecream Cake (Game Over)

[GuyInFreezer]

VC 1.03

T3 (1):

Quiet Owl

No Elimination (1):

Cook

benpopham (3):

MegAzumarill, Whemestar, T3

MegAzumarill (1):

Psyche

Cook (1):

Kerset

Not voting:

navigatorv, benpopham

With

9

alive,

5

votes to eliminate

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-08-16 11:51:42)

Quiet Owl is in V/LA until 8/10
benpopham did not respond to a prod and will be replaced.

[navigatorv]

The curse returns...

[GuyInFreezer]

Sea monkey replaces benpopham

[Kerset]

We are so generous to give away a page top

[T3]

pain

[Psyche]

you guys done with the vanity wagon yet?

[Psyche]

if so, please feel welcome to join me on the adventure of a lifetime! there will be cookies

[Sea monkey]

hii

[Sea monkey]

ok so from ive read im being voted because 1, meg wanted to hear more from ben 2, whem saw meg vote and said "ah yeah yeah nice vote" before sheeping and 3, t3 has a strong belief that ben was mafia because ?

[Cook]

i'm wondering that as well.

t3's trying to deflect wagon pressure i'd think.

VOTE: T3 for the time being.

[Sea monkey]

I wanna hear t3 elaborate on his read on me before i go on and vote

[Psyche]

really thought the cookies would be a draw

[Cook]

really thought the cookies would be a draw

i'm... kind of a cookie.

[T3]

I don't scumread you.

[Cook]

I don't scumread you.

not voting for omgus

no elimination isn't helpi– hold on a second, this might make the math better.

[Cook]

if we no eliminated we lose the chance of dropping a scum but we

also

lose the chance of miseliminating a townie.

Look at it this way:

2 scum

versus

7 town

.

We have a 22% chance to hit scum on a pure mathematical basis. The other 78% we eliminate a townie.

In the case where we hit scum, it becomes

1 scum

7 town

and then a

small chance of no death happening

, but over the night it likely becomes

1 scum

6 town

. Assuming we follow my claim strategy from there we basically can finish the game with no issue.

In the case where we hit town, it becomes

2 scum

6 town

and then over the night a small chance of no death, but likely a

2 scum

5 town

.


---


If we no-eliminate, that will likely put us at

2 scum

6 town

and we can get a confirm townie tomorrow.

[navigatorv]

The problem with relying on math in a game like this is that humans aren't logical creatures and they'll rarely act as predicted (besides that, there'salso the simplefact of certain townies not being as vital to victory on account of things like experienceand skill levels). Besides that, statistically, games that do no elim early on are more likely to go south since town's giving up one of the only kills they have control over.

I used to be on team "no elim day one" but I've had several people more experienced than me explain why it's a bad idea so I no longer advocate for it

[Sea monkey]

I don't scumread you.

Im a replacement for ben so if you thought ben was mafia wouldnt you think im mafia too since i have his role now?

[Sea monkey]

The problem with relying on math in a game like this is that humans aren't logical creatures and they'll rarely act as predicted (besides that, there'salso the simplefact of certain townies not being as vital to victory on account of things like experienceand skill levels). Besides that, statistically, games that do no elim early on are more likely to go south since town's giving up one of the only kills they have control over.

I used to be on team "no elim day one" but I've had several people more experienced than me explain why it's a bad idea so I no longer advocate for it

its easy to predict what someones going to do in a mafia game if you play your cards right i dont know what your going on about with the "humans are illogical creatures" arguement

[Cook]

The problem with relying on math in a game like this is that humans aren't logical creatures and they'll rarely act as predicted (besides that, there'salso the simplefact of certain townies not being as vital to victory on account of things like experienceand skill levels). Besides that, statistically, games that do no elim early on are more likely to go south since town's giving up one of the only kills they have control over.

I used to be on team "no elim day one" but I've had several people more experienced than me explain why it's a bad idea so I no longer advocate for it

you may be right.

my vote stands.

The problem with relying on math in a game like this is that humans aren't logical creatures and they'll rarely act as predicted (besides that, there'salso the simplefact of certain townies not being as vital to victory on account of things like experienceand skill levels). Besides that, statistically, games that do no elim early on are more likely to go south since town's giving up one of the only kills they have control over.

I used to be on team "no elim day one" but I've had several people more experienced than me explain why it's a bad idea so I no longer advocate for it

its easy to predict what someones going to do in a mafia game if you play your cards right i dont know what your going on about with the "humans are illogical creatures" arguement

but also at the same time the entire strategy for this game that i've laid out is having people claim so that we have as little entropy to deal with.

[Sea monkey]

The problem with relying on math in a game like this is that humans aren't logical creatures and they'll rarely act as predicted (besides that, there'salso the simplefact of certain townies not being as vital to victory on account of things like experienceand skill levels). Besides that, statistically, games that do no elim early on are more likely to go south since town's giving up one of the only kills they have control over.

I used to be on team "no elim day one" but I've had several people more experienced than me explain why it's a bad idea so I no longer advocate for it

you may be right.

my vote stands.

The problem with relying on math in a game like this is that humans aren't logical creatures and they'll rarely act as predicted (besides that, there'salso the simplefact of certain townies not being as vital to victory on account of things like experienceand skill levels). Besides that, statistically, games that do no elim early on are more likely to go south since town's giving up one of the only kills they have control over.

I used to be on team "no elim day one" but I've had several people more experienced than me explain why it's a bad idea so I no longer advocate for it

its easy to predict what someones going to do in a mafia game if you play your cards right i dont know what your going on about with the "humans are illogical creatures" arguement

but also at the same time the entire strategy for this game that i've laid out is having people claim so that we have as little entropy to deal with.

ew strategies are wack just scum hunt like a regular person

[T3]

I never thought ben was scum.

[WhemeStar]

if so, please feel welcome to join me on the adventure of a lifetime! there will be cookies

My adventure is more glamorous you should come over here

[Sea monkey]

I never thought ben was scum.

then why would you vote him, and can you unvote me? pretty please with a cherry ontop.

[Quiet Owl]

If anyone has any thoughts (any at all!), please share them. We've got six people who haven't posted anything of substance and it's impossible to analyse things while this remains the case. To pick a name out of a hat, WhemeStar?