mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[NorwegianboyEE]

But it’s the only thing you talk about.
In your townplay in DaC you also tried to solve peoples allignment.

[Bingle]

I will be shooting who I want to

Why are you against using setup tools to town’s advantage? I don’t remember that from naughts or ygg you.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m going Bingle.

[Bingle]

But it’s the only thing you talk about.
In your townplay in DaC you also tried to solve peoples allignment.

And also in my scumplay in DaC.

I’ve been largely busy IRL and somewhat checked out from the game, which is moderately checkable by looking at my site wide activity, despite this being my only ongoing game. I think that scum is in the players who aren’t really playing and there’s not a lot I can do to push them without spending effort. The problem being that “people who aren’t really playing” is like 2/3 of the player list.

[schadd_]

T3 replaces cass.bruant

[Bingle]

I’m going Bingle.

I’m assuming I’m the lim today, tbh, and I’m not really fighting it because I have no potions. The real question is can I orchestrate a mass action chain to follow after I die.

[NorwegianboyEE]

And also in my scumplay in DaC.

Lol no.
What you did there was be a scumbutt.

[Green Cap Boys]

VOTE: Titus

Current strongest suspects are Titus + Limit, but Datisi thought S_S was pinging townie (I didn't see it personally, think they've been quite lacking overall).

I know I just mentioned vaguely suspecting Bingle but he'd be a vaguely distant third suspect I don't feel great about. Maybe I'm just prone to feeling recency bias because he's here and saying things right now. Need to hear more from ta vera, cass.bruant slot needs to exist in the game in some way.

-R

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m going Bingle.

I’m assuming I’m the lim today, tbh, and I’m not really fighting it because I have no potions. The real question is can I orchestrate a mass action chain to follow after I die.

You’re not gonna fight it?
Now i feel unsure.

[schadd_]

Spoiler:

votey 1.0.04.01.0 !

Bingle (4):

mastina, The Emperor, Dwlee99, NorwegianboyEE

The Emperor (1):

ta vera

ta vera (1):

Bingle

Fairy Circle (1):

Titus

Titus (1):

Green Cap Boys

not voting (3):

The Limit Does Not Exist, T3, Fairy Circle

with 11 alive, it takes 6 to cause someone to Wet. day 1 ends in (expired on 2021-08-17 12:30:00)

modorator notes

• Schweppes

[Bingle]

Nah, I made a bunch of consecutive shitpushes to leave bad associations, actually attempted to push townreads on Marci and Luke, and then openwolfed to prevent my partner from being caught by a dwindling PoE when I realized that you and BMI weren’t going to have the dynamic I had been aiming for.

I did actually try to push people for AI things I could shitpush on though.

Comparatively, here, I’ve just not been doing anything.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Considering scum has a lot of voice in this town.
3 scum VS just 8 town
Bingle could be too easy so i’n gonna think about it more.
UNVOTE:

[Green Cap Boys]

I am not actually sure scum has "a lot of voice" given, uh, the way things have been going, but do not think the case on Bingle has been strong enough for me to go "yes kill him ASAP".

-R

[Bingle]

You’re not gonna fight it?

Not what I said and also not what I meant.

I'm not really fighting it currently (although, actually that's changing) but I will put up at least some fight. Rolling over and taking it doesn't leave anything to analyze.

OTOH, I'm in a lobby that has 0 names good at reading me and 0 names I'm amazing at reading. I have no night actions. I'm probably the 4th best D1 lim for that reason (After scum, because if 2 scum are eliminated we can functionally turn this game into nightless). The goal is to take that and leave town in a position where they can then win the game afterwards.

[Bingle]

I am not actually sure scum has "a lot of voice" given, uh, the way things have been going, but do not think the case on Bingle has been strong enough for me to go "yes kill him ASAP".

I think the wagon on me is mostly town, FWIW. Scum doesn't want to be on a wagon that's this flimsy, it's shit optics for the lategame.

[Bingle]

The post from SS was equally :eyebrows: because it just made no sense. Why would you have to consider the veracity of your own hypothetical townslip to the point where sheeping my view on it would be suspicious?

Can you link what post this is referring to?

Ok, Bingle already said this earlier.
You seem like you really want to hammer that point across.

Are you taking Bingle as the authority on this? All I wanted was to share my opinion, which should be given the same weight as anyone else's.

-S

[Bingle]

The you in 341 was Norwee, for context. SS was asking Norwee if I'm the authority on whether Norwee townslipped, which frankly seems bizarre to me.

[Fairy Circle]

Sometimes it easier to ask forgiveness than permission.
I will do neither.


8 town, 3 mafia.

Approximately 11 pain potions.
Mafia have additional 1.2 pain potions approximately, giving them an average of 4 pain potions. This could be more, this could be less. This accounts for 2 kills over 4 days.

That is a total of 12-13 HP damage assuming that each potion deals a single point of damage.
11 players, that will create approximately 6 kills in this game assuming all pain potions are able to be used.

As learned from Yggdrasil, town can and will use their abilities and will not hold them.
As learned from Yggdrasil, mafia do not have the option of an outright kill, forcing them to use their potions.
I will not say what I consider their optimal potion play to be. I don't want to give them ideas.

As for optimal day play, they are required to absolutely stir the pot more than the King and Queen did when they invited the other courts, but not myself to their little celebration.

-Malefleacent.

Okay, that helps. I think this is

probably

an explanation that comes from town. Had a gut lean that way from the momrangal posts but I think the response here solidifies that.


I had put basically 0 care into actually looking at the potential number of pain potions available to scum, I had been considering a worst case scenario of 3 scum kills by night 2 but the probability for that even being possible after setup generation is small-ish

Still, hero shots as town are almost always going to be bad here. That was the subject I had wanted to get into earlier but didn't want to drag things down into mechanics right away. People shooting at their own whim is unlikely to produce a flip (which is at least usable information), but is likely to produce an extra target for scum to kill on subsequent nights.

That was why Bingle's 105 bothered me, there was clearly an idea here of how to play around pain potion usage but he left it as an unfinished shower thought and moved on without exploring it any further. It had a hint of possibly not wanting to go too in-depth because he knows it's more favorable for scum if he doesn't outline a real strategy and lets people do dumb things and fling around pain potions wildly.

-R

It was certainly a long winded way to say "Don't be a hero".

[Fairy Circle]

Could you elaborate on Bingle and Titus? I haven't really felt strongly either way on Bingle, but I do quite like Titus thus far.

-Malefleacent

...why do you like

Titus

?

I admit I have slight bias, it's part of why I wish to talk to Momcinda about reads.

[Green Cap Boys]

The you in 341 was Norwee, for context. SS was asking Norwee if I'm the authority on whether Norwee townslipped, which frankly seems bizarre to me.

Taking Bingle as the authority on his own post not being a towntell is a bizarre line of thought, actually. I don't know that it's...meaningful in an AI-sense, though they could be scum regardless.

-R

[Dwlee99]

I will be shooting who I want to

Why are you against using setup tools to town’s advantage? I don’t remember that from naughts or ygg you.

I shot at Ircher in ygg. Naughts is a bit different, cause I was still trying to use it to kill who I want essentially and we were in ELO cause of the board state.

Also I'm having trouble engaging with these posts. I'll probably try to reread or something and form thoughts on them at a different time but I'm not ~great~ mental rn and am going to be out tonight.

[Bingle]

As far as towncasing, I've spoken a little about Emp, but I suppose I could go into detail.

DR Green has been waffling, but not in a way that makes it seem like they're willing to take any side in an argument. They have consistently had the most salient opinions on IGA fmpov and the things they've poked at all seem to be going somewhere (contrast ta vera). 109 for example looked like Dats was actually trying to find motivation. 144 is an admittedly weak push, but when asked about it Dats didn't back down and elaborated on his thoughts. There was a train of logic behind the push AND the followthrough to actually try to get discussion going from it. And then he went and turned the confrontation into a chance at reading me, not an accusation but an honest attempt at reaching out.

125 was also fairly town in that it's something I don't think scum thinks to fake. If scum is going to put the effort into pushing lurkers, I'd expect it to be on a lurker that actually exists in the game. "But Bingle," you say, "The fact that Dats thought Dunn WAS in the game makes that NAI!" Sure. But scum also doesn't make that post having realized he isn't. Scum either drops the Dunnstral case anyway and we all point and laugh and say "Silly Datisi, there's no Dunn in this game, you must be town." or scum just leaves the whole thing alone and doesn't post it at all. The former would be better for optics and the latter would be better for effort. Instead, Datisi is being naturally open with his approach to the thread, meaning he doesn't have the intention of hiding things.

Teal Dear:

GCB has consistently shown a town approach to the game.

[Bingle]

I shot at Ircher in ygg.

You shot Ircher in ygg before we had any plans about shooting. You had a frontrow seat to why coordinated town shooting was useful (and, iirc, agreed to do so once we had our solid PoE). Ygg was also a closed setup.

Naughts was an open setup (like this one) with an abusable for town mechanic that you immediately tried to explain and explore. I thought you did so on D1 as well, but you definitely didn't take an issue with it.

Note: I'm not saying you should have no input on who you shoot, I'm saying that we should go into night with a plan OR that no one should shoot. I'm currently leaning the former, because due to the nature of harmography potions we can possibly have a large pool of pseudoconftown.

[Bingle]

2. It makes it scarier for scum to shoot in people outside the pool - in addition to the possibility of having a shot blocked by a doctor/jailkeeper potion, any result from a harmography potion is a hard guilty - they cannot get away with an excuse of "Oh I used my pain on [insert obvtown player here] because I scumread them"

Particularly, Dwlee, what is your rebuttal to this?

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

The you in 341 was Norwee, for context. SS was asking Norwee if I'm the authority on whether Norwee townslipped, which frankly seems bizarre to me.

I mean, it's bizarre to say that you are the authority on it, but that's what Norwee seemed to be implying. So I don't see what's weird about the question.

-S