mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[Dwlee99]

I'm fine with making pools. But if the person I want to shoot isn't in the pool I'll probably say something about that.

[Fairy Circle]

Could you elaborate on Bingle and Titus? I haven't really felt strongly either way on Bingle, but I do quite like Titus thus far.

-Malefleacent

No i don’t want to elaborate on Bingle yet.
Titus, just really meh so far.
Also what do you make of them saying you need votes? They don’t seem to underline much of any of their votes so far with much reasoning.

That's standard Titus.

So, anyway, my thoughts on the acceptable strategy for Pain potion usage is that we should have a vig pool of at most 2 names for people to shoot at.

This has the benefit of:

1. Concentrating town's firepower such that it's actually possible to flip a suspect. It doesn't matter if scum chooses to shoot there because it's on town, it's still a town-directed kill and is clearing out someone who otherwise would have been an elimination candidate.
2. It makes it scarier for scum to shoot in people outside the pool - in addition to the possibility of having a shot blocked by a doctor/jailkeeper potion, any result from a harmography potion is a hard guilty - they cannot get away with an excuse of "Oh I used my pain on [insert obvtown player here] because I scumread them"

If people want no vig shots at all, I think that's also an acceptable strategy, I just flat-out Do Not Want people shooting on a whim because that is likely to end badly and affords scum too much in the way of wiggle room

-R

Absolutely not.
We give scum free kills with a pool, and honestly trying to control town's shots is never going to end well.

Maths is not my strong suit. Neither is English apparently.

Mafia are aware of who to target, their pool is 8, I will not discuss scum tactics here.
Each one of us are only aware of ourselves. Our pool is 10.

2 people need to successfully target any one person to obtain a kill.

Town still has 1-in-10 (2:20) of hitting that kill in a single night. Over two nights it's a lot greater chance of hitting the kill and cannot be estimated without long calculations which frankly I do not have the time nor patience for.

I suspect there will be as much town invoked death as scum invoked. Greatest difficulty in this game is that NKA cannot feasibly happen.

-Malefleacent.

Not only is this math completely wrong, it’s also completely irrelevant.

We need to either mass holster like we should have done in Ygg or turn the pain potions mechanic into additional eliminations, like we did after morph was confirmed.

I said it wasn't my strong point, and this isn't Ygg. The only similarity is HP and chip potential. Everyones got 2HP and we don't get updates beyond that.
Dwlee has already said they're not following this tactic. (I see in my PEdit a possible agreement for pool shots)
No matter how perfect your strategy is, you will have the human element to battle against.

2 names for people to shoot at.

These names should be leashed. First five can shoot at one, second five can shoot at the other. Additional benefit of mafia risking having to justify why they didn’t shoot.

And this is an absolutely waste of any power town has, and I know you're not stupid enough to suggest this legitmately.

[Fairy Circle]

Recent posts have been Malefleacent.

[Bingle]

Do mafia have a nightkill or do they just toss poison at people.

Town post this far more often than scum think to fake it

I'm going to take this at face value and assume you're not the sort of person to fake this sort of thing. Unless you say you are.

Towny for recognising that and calling it out

Dwlee's giving me town pings for their weird posting that on a surface level looks scummy, and scum are less likely to make

I have a meta read on Bingle which I'll hold onto for now

So the meta read here is that scum Bingle doesn't really joke around about mech early game, while he almost always does as town from what I've seen

I don't really like the angle he's taking wrt to ta vera right now. 159 felt selective since it doesn't mention ta vera's mech analysis which I actually felt like it served some use, as well as her push on The Senate

The main things I like from Emp, along with his back and forth with ta vera which went over several posts and mostly boiled down to prompting her for actual content while she was catching up. I disagree that 8 was town indicative (Norwee is smart enough to ask non incriminating setup clarification questions publicly as scum) but the thought process that it would be town indicative isn't an unreasonable one. Further, the thought process of "I think thing X is town, Person Y thinks thing X is town, and I don't see a reason for Person Y to point out that thing X is town" is altogether far more towny than the generic "I think thing X is town and Person Y thinks thing X is town". It shows a level of paranoia as to GCB's motivations that I think is unlikely to be faked by scum as a throwaway read in the early days.

The wrongmeta application to me similarly makes sense. DNC 2 was one of my only real recent scumgames (the only other one that pops into mind is the game about Russia and nukes where I repped into a literally solved gamestate and cried a little that I didn't get to play scum with Ali for longer) and he's 100% right that my entrance there was very different to my entrance here. Comparatively I have quite a few recent towngames that are more in line with this game. He didn't take into account that DNC 2 I mostly avoided mechspeak because the majority of the game had just had the mech speak conversation and thus didn't need it again, as I pointed out by telling him to look at the contemporary game of lovers and losers 2 where I didn't engage in mechspeak because we accidentally broke the game and had to reroll based on leveraging mod info to locktown a player. (Which, to be fair, was 50% my fault and 50% llamafluff's fault.) In both cases I didn't mechspeak because I already had.

Still though, his conclusions were supported by the given evidence, which he definitely went to go find, and he didn't appear to be blowing smoke up my ass (which would be unlikely from someone who meta'd me as I'm LESS likely to townread people who townread me). The waffling on me seems like genuine cogdis where he's trying to reconcile two different opinions and can't quite line them up, which is very hard to fake well as scum.

[Bingle]

And this is an absolutely waste of any power town has, and I know you're not stupid enough to suggest this legitmately.

It's not about killing the names we choose it's about potentially *conftowning* anyone who does shoot at those names.

Conftown here doesn't actually mean conftown, FWIW, but rather that there would by necessity be 2 scum outside of that pool if anyone else died.

I can make a theory wall to explain things later, but I actually haven't decided a couple of specifics yet (for example, whether we should massclaim pots or use playerlist divisions if we actually adopt said plan).

[Bingle]

I'm fine with making pools. But if the person I want to shoot isn't in the pool I'll probably say something about that.

I mean... I'd hope you would. The point of leveraging the vigs into three eliminations would be to ACTUALLY HAVE THREE ELIMINATIONS. It wouldn't be hero shooting, it would be arguing scumreads in the main thread and presenting whys.

[Fairy Circle]

That I can see in the limited information I have, we cannot even biasconf people here.

We have a limited supply of pain pots, and you're suggesting dumping them into 2 players. Thats what it reads as to me.

Not only that, we're dealing with random distribution of pain pots and it's entirely possible that there are people with no pots and multiple pots, as well as people holding more than 3 pots as you've already highlighted.

The only way this game can be optimised is with a full massclaim, which is frankly stupid and is something I can't do anyway at the moment.

-Malefleacent

[Bingle]

the human element to battle against.

Look at the playerlist.

SS
Dats
Norwee
Dwlee
Titus
Mastina
You.

All of these people are both mech savvy enough to follow a plan and trustworthy enough to ACTUALLY DO SO AS TOWN IF THE PLAN MAKES SENSE, at least from my PoV.

I think T3 would too, and neither ta or Emp strike me as wildcard trolls who would intentionally fuck town because they don't like plans.

I have limited experience with lilith, but based on the work she put into Betrayal and her hydra partner, I'm inclined to add her to the list.

Based on the lobby, I think an actual NA plan is fairly reasonable, tbh.

[Green Cap Boys]

"giving scum free kills" is very much irrelevant if the ones being killed are people who were going to be voted out anyway. Shooting into the POE makes the game significantly harder for scum even if it's on town as it removes someone who would be drawing suspicion and forces people to re-evaluate anyway. The biggest downsides are if we miss on all our scumreads, but...that'd be true if we went 0/3 regardless.

[Bingle]

That I can see in the limited information I have, we cannot even biasconf people here.

We have a limited supply of pain pots, and you're suggesting dumping them into 2 players. Thats what it reads as to me.

Not only that, we're dealing with random distribution of pain pots and it's entirely possible that there are people with no pots and multiple pots, as well as people holding more than 3 pots as you've already highlighted.

You're going to have to wait for the full theory wall, but A. Yes we can. B. I'm not suggesting we dump all of our pain potions, but rather that we limit the available targets to two specific scummy players and then give each individual the choice of whether they shoot at said individual player (this time a specific one) or not. And C. Yes. It's entirely possible that people have more than one pot, but here's the important bit: A player, including scum can only use one pain pot per night. If they target the person they're allotted to target with a pain pot, they specifically can't have targeted anyone else. If a third player dies at night, we KNOW two scum targeted that player with pain pots and thus that at most one scum targeted the designated targets. Harmography potions have the potential to confirm that someone targeted their designated target. This leads to two options: scum not killing outside of a pool we control collectively, or scum risking large numbers of pseudoclears, backing 2/3 of their team into a small PoE pool, both of which are positive EV for town.

[Bingle]

Oh, also, potions of Doctor are trash and shouldn't be used.

[Fairy Circle]

They're also savvy enough to attempt to manipulate the list to work in their favour if they're more evil than I.

Harmography pots are our greatest tool here, and Potions of Doctorism cover the tracks of "oh well guess nobody targeted PlayerX last night then" while burning pots.

-Malefleacent

[Bingle]

Norwee is less specific than either of my other two town reads, but basically where in the last game Norwee felt like town to me but was lackluster, this Norwee feels like that Norwee but more. He's more aggressive, more present, and more willing to push for reads. Based on infinity's characterization, that makes me think this is townNorwee. Grain of salt, I think I've misread Norwee in literally every game I've ever played with him except for DNC 1 where he was just obviously not partnered with skitter or infinity. Still though, given mastina's lack of telling me I'm a moron there, I'm gonna guess this is just town Norwee.

[Bingle]

Harmography pots are our greatest tool here,

Agreed-ish. (JK pots might become more important later on.) But allowing the unleashed use of pain pots makes Harmography pots << useful. The way to weaken watchers is to add FVs.

Pots of Doctor don't necessarily save lives but DO muddy the waters on what other pots have been used. They actively give town less information than we otherwise would have had, and are unlikely to be useful. I suppose I shouldn't say they should never be used, but they should never be used in conjunction with pots of pain.

[Bingle]

That's standard Titus.

True. Why does that merit a townread?

If town you was lurking, would scumtitus NOT push you for lurking? I'm seeing all of Titus' thread interaction as very par for the course for Titus, and also completely unparseable for alignment. Of course Titus pushes your slot for actively avoiding the thread, but she does that regardless of her alignment.

[Green Cap Boys]

They're also savvy enough to attempt to manipulate the list to work in their favour if they're more evil than I.

Sure, but scum can also manipulate the elimination vote. That doesn't mean we forego voting for fear of scum influence.

-R

[Green Cap Boys]

VOTE: TLDNE

Last popin was Not Good, lack of engagement from lilith is troubling. Shuffling above Titus in my mind but Titus is probably still one of my top vig choices at the moment.

-R

[Bingle]

Green Cap Boys

The Emperor
ta vera

NorwegianboyEE

{The Limit Does Not Exist, Dwlee99, Titus}

cass.bruant

Fairy Circle (hydra of Momrangal and Flea the Magician)

Bingle

Rough readslist. I realize it's not great but is all I've got.

One last note:

With the exception of the obvious, this reads list seems pretty decent to me. This doesn't make me townread mastina by any stretch, but I do want to note it.

[Fairy Circle]

That's standard Titus.

True. Why does that merit a townread?

If town you was lurking, would scumtitus NOT push you for lurking? I'm seeing all of Titus' thread interaction as very par for the course for Titus, and also completely unparseable for alignment. Of course Titus pushes your slot for actively avoiding the thread, but she does that regardless of her alignment.

Honestly, bias and a hint of gut. Like I said I'm going to talk to Momcinda and see where we stand between us.

-Malefleacent

[NorwegianboyEE]

Hey i don't regret voting Bingle if it's gonna make him put out a lot of posts.

[Bingle]

Actually:

{Green Cap Boys The Emperor}


NorwegianboyEE


{The Limit Does Not Exist, mastina, Titus}

cass.bruant


{Dwlee Fairy Circle}

ta vera

would be my list. Spacing roughly indicative of strength of reads.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Some people just need a good vote in the butt to start towning i guess.

[Bingle]

Hey i don't regret voting Bingle if it's gonna make him put out a lot of posts.

TIL, Norwee doesn't really love me. He just wants me to put out.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Hey i don't regret voting Bingle if it's gonna make him put out a lot of posts.

TIL, Norwee doesn't really love me. He just wants me to put out.

Wat?

[Green Cap Boys]

This is one of those moments where you have to explain slang to Norwee and it gets awkward