Newbie 2076 [Game Over]

[Clasko]

I genuinely found chimchar overrated

Pagetop

Natural scum progression!

Who even takes pagetops like that, anyway?!

[Clasko]

@Hockey if you seriously meant to combine Cringe + Chimchar to make a new word then I'm legit lowkey mad at you but I appreciate the word play.

[Clasko]

Had a newbie game where someone said "tbh" over thirty times and turned out to be scum. They still won even after it was pointed out as a scum tell too.

if we're talking about the same game I think you're referring to, didn't that same person say they used 'tbh' constantly? Meaning it would be more NAI?

I'm not necessarily against considering the frequency someone uses a certain word to determine whether they're scum when analysing them as town v. scum, but it wouldn't be the end-all-be-all for me IMO, and it sort of lends itself towards 'meta' and IDK if I'm prepared to go there yet.

[MargotRosa]

Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.

Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?

No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.

VOTE: T3

Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.

If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.

If we don't reveal tracker, the likelihood that town randomly loses both PRs by d3 is 2/7 * 1/6 = ~4.8% chance. This is not even taking into account whether we have a doctor, and if we do, that chance is lessened even more.

On the other hand, if we do reveal tracker, the chance that we lose both PRs by d3 is the chance of randomly picking the doctor out of the remaining 6 townies, allowing them to kill the tracker n2, giving 1/6 = ~17% chance. Here, there is no real doctor to lessen the chance further, as doc needs to protect tracker on the off chance scum play a wild card and kill tracker as a fake (risk of this happening is higher than the probability of randomly picking the 1/6 townie that scum will also target).

That is how much we screw ourselves by revealing a role. <4.8% chance of randomly losing both PRs goes up to ~17% chance.

As T3 is a seasoned forum player, I'd expect them to know this, or have at least observed it. Absolutely scum read on T3.

[Clasko]

What is everyone's experience playing Mafia?

@LQ: So, I covered this in a previous newbie game where I subbed out, so for the sake of Roden & T3 who were also in the game where I answered this question, I'll go into more deets:

I started playing on a forum called Neoseeker back in 2013-ish on some Pokemon forum or other labelled "The Evil Zoroark Game", and if you know Zoroark's ability in the mainline games, then you'll appreciate why it's aptly named.

Anyway, the games usually consisted of 48-hour days and 24-hour nights, and funnily enough they were usually hosted by someone called Zaicon, whom I've recently learned has also moderated games on this site as well, so, small world I guess.

As for this site, I've subbed out of two games due to IRL, completed my first, and replaced into a recent one, but I still have a lot to learn. After completing 5 newbies I'll debate whether to keep playing or just hang around mish-mash. I've mentioned before that the 10-day day phases exhaust me, slightly.

I sort of agree with Roden that RQS can divert relevant discussion points but I don't mind it within the first 24 hours of the thread opening to get a feel for how the game is moving forward.

[Clasko]

Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.

If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.

I mean... I'm not immediately sus of T3's suggestion tbh. I understand your POV, & granted it's a good tool to bring a conf-town into late game, but I like the idea of clearing one potential townie D1 to reduce our elimination pool.

Like, Tracker's kinda meh anyway, until there's only one Mafia left and then, at that point, Tracker can start conf-towning the people who didn't visit, kinda like a pseudo-cop, but it's contingent on correctly eliminating Mafia D1 to be fully effective.

I'm not a Tracker, though, to hopefully get the ball rolling but three people have expressed their disdain for the suggestion, or at least questioned the effectiveness of it, so.

[MargotRosa]

I mean... I'm not immediately sus of T3's suggestion tbh. I understand your POV, & granted it's a good tool to bring a conf-town into late game, but I like the idea of clearing one potential townie D1 to reduce our elimination pool.

Like, Tracker's kinda meh anyway, until there's only one Mafia left and then, at that point, Tracker can start conf-towning the people who didn't visit, kinda like a pseudo-cop, but it's contingent on correctly eliminating Mafia D1 to be fully effective.

It's not just about whether or not the tracker is a good role or not. It gives scum info about which of the three setups they're dealing with. Plus, if town is going to eliminate tracker, we can give them the opportunity to reveal their role before they go down. Hiding the info from scum is way more valuable than giving town the info when that info can be given to us before we eliminate them in the unlikely incidence that they do get voted as scum

I'm not saying T3 is definitely scum. But it seems like pretty scummy D1 behaviour from where I'm sitting.

[LicketyQuickety]

Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.

Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?

No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.

VOTE: T3

Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.

If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.

If we don't reveal tracker, the likelihood that town randomly loses both PRs by d3 is 2/7 * 1/6 = ~4.8% chance. This is not even taking into account whether we have a doctor, and if we do, that chance is lessened even more.

On the other hand, if we do reveal tracker, the chance that we lose both PRs by d3 is the chance of randomly picking the doctor out of the remaining 6 townies, allowing them to kill the tracker n2, giving 1/6 = ~17% chance. Here, there is no real doctor to lessen the chance further, as doc needs to protect tracker on the off chance scum play a wild card and kill tracker as a fake (risk of this happening is higher than the probability of randomly picking the 1/6 townie that scum will also target).

That is how much we screw ourselves by revealing a role. <4.8% chance of randomly losing both PRs goes up to ~17% chance.

As T3 is a seasoned forum player, I'd expect them to know this, or have at least observed it. Absolutely scum read on T3.

Don't like this vote. IIRC there was something like this brought up in past Newbie games.

[Astra]

I'm still unsure about the tracker stuff but not necessarily sus of T3 for it

on the other hand I'm not vibing Lickety at all. He's got enough posts to

seem

engaged just via postcount but there's next to no substance in any of them

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm still unsure about the tracker stuff but not necessarily sus of T3 for it

on the other hand I'm not vibing Lickety at all. He's got enough posts to

seem

engaged just via postcount but there's next to no substance in any of them

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

Don't like that I'm voting your friend huh?

[LicketyQuickety]

Oops.

VOTE: Margot

[Astra]

Lol actually part of my suspicion was that you

weren't

voting her

[HockeyFan]

Hi fellow townies(and T3), hope u have fun this game. Btw @Astra and @MargotRosa, what is your expericne playing mafia.

With that being said,

time to vote mafia

VOTE: T3

"fellow townies"

VOTE: HockeyFan

A decent amount in person. Played some online mafia like several years ago as well

I cant even say hi to my fellow townies

What is everyone's experience playing Mafia?

Uh i've played about a year on a chat site called mafia.gg and just started playing fourm recently

What is everyone's experience playing Mafia?

RQS is a scum tell. It's an irrelevant question that's just there to make you look busy.

Disagree. RQS allows for some discussion. It also makes people get a feel of other people. So, Why do you dislike it

VOTE: LQ

What is everyone's experience playing Mafia?

I've been playing on MS semi-regularly since I joined.

VOTE: Margot

You're forgetting that the D/P remakes are coming out later this year. Also, "honestly" tell.

P.S. Hockey is town on vibes.

What do you have against honesty?

It's nothing major, but it's simply that scum sometimes have a tendency to overuse words that they think will "sound" more towny.

Had a newbie game where someone said "tbh" over thirty times and turned out to be scum. They still won even after it was pointed out as a scum tell too.

@Hockey if you seriously meant to combine Cringe + Chimchar to make a new word then I'm legit lowkey mad at you but I appreciate the word play.

wut

Also regarding this whole T3 tracker thing, i think T3 is actually town because why would one bring so much attention to themselves(shown by the now ~10 posts on the topic within 3 pages), in a game of 2 scum. I think scum would usuaully want to lay low early. I still think Tracker SHOULD NOT claim, but T3 is

unfortunately

a TL of mine

[HockeyFan]

Hi fellow townies(and T3), hope u have fun this game. Btw @Astra and @MargotRosa, what is your expericne playing mafia.

With that being said,

time to vote mafia

VOTE: T3

Hey there! Never played in forum format, but played a lot of quick chat room format a few years ago after playing a bit with my university drama society, because of course that was a hotbed of RP games

VOTE: Clasko

Piplup is GOAT.

Honestly, having hard opinions on a gen of Pokemon starters that aren't 1 or the most recent one in 2021 is pretty sus.

VOTE: Roden

VOTE: Margot

You're forgetting that the D/P remakes are coming out later this year. Also, "honestly" tell.

P.S. Hockey is town on vibes.

Thanks for the pocket, will pocket u back

[HockeyFan]

I'm still unsure about the tracker stuff but not necessarily sus of T3 for it

on the other hand I'm not vibing Lickety at all. He's got enough posts to

seem

engaged just via postcount but there's next to no substance in any of them

VOTE: LicketyQuickety

uh can u elaborate on this? 10 posts is not a lot imo, also I dont know why u execpted any real substance >1 irl day into the game

[alstroemerial]

In terms of the tbh tell, the last time I tried to apply it, it led me astray because, as mentioned above, the person just talked (wrote?) like that. I've seen games where it is a notable difference in someone's style, but I suspect in newbie games it will generally be harder to apply.

Also, I am in the camp that there is no need for a tracker to claim on page 3, or even Day 1 for that matter unless they get close to elimination. Still, this is the sort of gambit that I've discovered is well within T3's wheelhouse so I don't see it as particularly indicative.

[HockeyFan]

In terms of the tbh tell, the last time I tried to apply it, it led me astray because, as mentioned above, the person just talked (wrote?) like that. I've seen games where it is a notable difference in someone's style, but I suspect in newbie games it will generally be harder to apply.

I think its more valuable to see whether that statement where they said "tbh" comes from a scum motive then to scumhunt via a tell that probably doesnt even work

Also, I am in the camp that there is no need for a tracker to claim on page 3, or even Day 1 for that matter unless they get close to elimination. Still, this is the sort of gambit that I've discovered is well within T3's wheelhouse so I don't see it as particularly indicative.

[LicketyQuickety]

Hockey doing good things. I like this.

Let me know when Hockey is universally TR.

[LicketyQuickety]

Lol actually part of my suspicion was that you

weren't

voting her

I didn't vote for anyone before that, lol.

[LicketyQuickety]

I'm not a Tracker, though, to hopefully get the ball rolling but three people have expressed their disdain for the suggestion, or at least questioned the effectiveness of it, so.

Probably shouldn't say this.

Don't really get this slot. They are logical in parts and then counterintuitive in other parts.

Hmm... Null.

[T3]

Ah ok I see. Even if it's the case they don't go for the tracker, what's the pro of the tracker claiming day 1 rather than day 2?

Tracker might die, and we also have a conftown.

[T3]

Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.

Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?

No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.

VOTE: T3

Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.

If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.

If we don't reveal tracker, the likelihood that town randomly loses both PRs by d3 is 2/7 * 1/6 = ~4.8% chance. This is not even taking into account whether we have a doctor, and if we do, that chance is lessened even more.

On the other hand, if we do reveal tracker, the chance that we lose both PRs by d3 is the chance of randomly picking the doctor out of the remaining 6 townies, allowing them to kill the tracker n2, giving 1/6 = ~17% chance. Here, there is no real doctor to lessen the chance further, as doc needs to protect tracker on the off chance scum play a wild card and kill tracker as a fake (risk of this happening is higher than the probability of randomly picking the 1/6 townie that scum will also target).

That is how much we screw ourselves by revealing a role. <4.8% chance of randomly losing both PRs goes up to ~17% chance.

As T3 is a seasoned forum player, I'd expect them to know this, or have at least observed it. Absolutely scum read on T3.

I do know this, but having 2 IC's on Day 2 is

very

good. If just one of the players in the non-PRs is obvious town then we have a PoE of 4 people.

[Roden]

If you're asking about the RQS scum tell sample size, you've been on this site long enough to know that one.

If it's the "tbh" tell I'm not sure how you expect me to source that unless you want me to comb through every newbie game and CTRL+F scum ISO's for "tbh" and "honestly". Which uh, I'm not gonna do. But I'm clearly not the only one who's heard of that tell anyway.

I use honestly and tbh a lot. Will try to keep that in mind lol.

And personality appreciate the RQS stuff. Light atmosphere to start the game, which I imagine will get quite testy

Had a newbie game where someone said "tbh" over thirty times and turned out to be scum. They still won even after it was pointed out as a scum tell too.

if we're talking about the same game I think you're referring to, didn't that same person say they used 'tbh' constantly? Meaning it would be more NAI?

I'm not necessarily against considering the frequency someone uses a certain word to determine whether they're scum when analysing them as town v. scum, but it wouldn't be the end-all-be-all for me IMO, and it sort of lends itself towards 'meta' and IDK if I'm prepared to go there yet.

I wouldn't hard accuse anyone for it, the tbh tell was me commenting on Egix bringing it up and backing it up with my own belief in it. It's nothing I'd bother trying to use on Day 1 though, I think it's reasonable that people use it naturally in their speech patterns. It's just when you have people using it sparingly or never in their confirmed town games and then blatantly overusing it in games they're suspicious in, then I think it has merit.

My opinion on RQS doesn't seem popular, but I've been burned a few times by people who try to look helpful/busy by engaging in RQS but then turn out to be scum. It's easy town cred for too little effort IMO.

[HockeyFan]

T3, 1 question for you. Even if your crackpot theory DOES work, why force claim tracker to claim d1 f1. While I still hate the idea of a PR claiming d1, im more on the side of the tracker claiming late d1, after we've had good discusscion. If your answer is "tracker might get pushed", who cares? By that time, we will hopefully have 2-3 susses and we can just pivot to the 2nd one

[HockeyFan]

If you're asking about the RQS scum tell sample size, you've been on this site long enough to know that one.

If it's the "tbh" tell I'm not sure how you expect me to source that unless you want me to comb through every newbie game and CTRL+F scum ISO's for "tbh" and "honestly". Which uh, I'm not gonna do. But I'm clearly not the only one who's heard of that tell anyway.

I use honestly and tbh a lot. Will try to keep that in mind lol.

And personality appreciate the RQS stuff. Light atmosphere to start the game, which I imagine will get quite testy

Had a newbie game where someone said "tbh" over thirty times and turned out to be scum. They still won even after it was pointed out as a scum tell too.

if we're talking about the same game I think you're referring to, didn't that same person say they used 'tbh' constantly? Meaning it would be more NAI?

I'm not necessarily against considering the frequency someone uses a certain word to determine whether they're scum when analysing them as town v. scum, but it wouldn't be the end-all-be-all for me IMO, and it sort of lends itself towards 'meta' and IDK if I'm prepared to go there yet.

I wouldn't hard accuse anyone for it, the tbh tell was me commenting on Egix bringing it up and backing it up with my own belief in it. It's nothing I'd bother trying to use on Day 1 though, I think it's reasonable that people use it naturally in their speech patterns. It's just when you have people using it sparingly or never in their confirmed town games and then blatantly overusing it in games they're suspicious in, then I think it has merit.

My opinion on RQS doesn't seem popular, but I've been burned a few times by people who try to look helpful/busy by engaging in RQS but then turn out to be scum. It's easy town cred for too little effort IMO.

I mean, prolonging RQS and to keep talking about it beyond your first few posts is sus sure. But the person who did RQS this game(Lickety), did not prolong and even got some /starter/ reads(Only serious read is the TR on me, but still, Lickety did get some info, so sure RQS may be easy town cred for little effort but Idt thats the case in this game