[MT2225] Chrono Trigger Chronicles - The Rise/Fall of Yakra

[Dwlee99]

I have a guess for who it is I think

Unrelated
UNVOTE:

[LavosCore]

Vote Count 4.2

Not Voting

(7)

:

mastina - Marashu - Angel Warriors - Roden - Lukewarm - Dwlee99 - House

With 7 players in the game, 4 are required to Yeet unto the Eternal Void .

Deadline for casting into the Gate is in (expired on 2021-08-21 05:03:13)

Mod Notes

One half of Angel Warriors has ongoing technical difficulties that I am aware of.

Pronouns

T3- He/Him
Angel Warriors - They/Them
Roden - He/Him
ssbm_Kyouko - She/Her
Marashu - He/Him
cyrus62 - He/Him
Lukewarm - He/Him
Robert M Hunter - He/Him
House - He/Him
mastina - She/Her
Titus - She/Her
Gamma Emerald - He/Him
Dwlee99 - They/Them

[mastina]

That's all well and good, but you're still in my PoE for reasons already stated.

Fair, me being town would be something I'd ideally have had a chance to establish earlier but I'm all too aware that I've little in the way of towniness there.

We have not actually been popcorning lol

Well that's what you get for choosing poorly for who starts the popcorn.

Choosing someone who hasn't had the chance to town up to start the massclaim is fair enough; they're not clearly town so they could be scum.
Asking someone who hasn't read the game and has no reads to select a player to claim next is pretty damn stupid tho.

This feels gross to me. Like maybe very true at Elo, where we are right now, this looks like trying to enlarge the miselim pool

Read it again? Actually READ read it? Because the approach I mentioned is doing the opposite of enlarging the mislim pool--it is attempting to narrow it down to the precise number of scum in the game, in a gamestate where doing so is difficult.

By critically analyzing what could make a slot be scum versus what could make that slot be town, pointing out the strengths/weaknesses in both sides to determine which side is stronger and by how much, you can rank people more easily from towniest to least-townie and the *number of scum--in this case, one* at the bottom of your list after you go through this effort is the most likely to be the remaining scum.

If everyone has reason to be town, at least one player with a reason to be town, isn't. In the case of this game, precisely one player. The approach I mentioned doesn't cast suspicion onto everyone. It evaluates, critically, everyone but then rebuilds the townreads on some players to be stronger than they were originally. (Basically, it's like the process of a muscle getting stronger. You tear down the muscle and it rebuilds itself to be stronger. In this case, you tear down the townread but then rebuild it to be stronger than it was before.)

Ideally, you rebuild the townreads on all but the scum, who then you promptly eliminate. But in a worst case scenario, it still is useful for you in determining which players you trust the most.

(Technically speaking, this approach can be applied at any time. However, it is more difficult than normal scumhunting so I only employ it when either the entire playerlist is filled to the brim with folks I know are skilled as both alignments a la team mafiaesque games or when we've eliminated the obvious scum and are struggling to close the game out, as is the case for this game since we don't have an obvious third scum to eliminate here. Normal scumhunting can just be snap-judgements of X is scum Y is town, but this approach is far more thorough and time-consuming require more in-depth analysis and thought and effort and mental loops to jump through so I'm too lazy to use it most of the time.)

[Roden]

We're not getting anywhere. If it was up to me I'd just turbo elim Mastina and then Luke if Mastina is wrong. Mastina has game knowledge and theoretically should've been able to give Robert and Cyrus better flavor claims, but she admitted we've been moving the game along too fast for her to keep up, so she just might not have had the time to help her scum buddies.

The one thing that bugs me most is why Cyrus gave up so easily. I don't understand why he just admitted he was scum instead of fighting to the end, we weren't even planning on voting him out yesterday despite how suspicious he looked but he still scum claimed anyway when pushed to better detail his flavor. If anyone else has played with him, can you explain if Cyrus is one to easily give up like that? Because if not, I think it just means he was bussed and it can't be Mastina.

PE: Well ok then lol, we got content the moment I complained we weren't getting anything.

[Dwlee99]

A game I was scum with Cyrus he self-voted about a RL day or two into day one. He was saying he was town that time but then sort of implying he was scum? He just does weird things I think.

[Roden]

Can I get a link to that game?

[Dwlee99]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86913

[Roden]

Hmm...Cyrus barely even interacted with his scum buddies there. His play seemed largely the same as here though.

[mastina]

We're not getting anywhere.

Well you weren't getting content because I wasn't playing.

Now I am.

It'd help if folks could bounce things off of me:
Key game events, key pages to link to, key reads they have backed by reasons and whatnot, things they want me to read, areas they want me to focus on, so I can view them and review them and form my own thoughts.

On that note I'm about to grab my coffee and start reading House's iso to see if it gives me better direction, too.

[mastina]

*sees a three-page iso from House*

*immediately regrets choice*

...

*a-HEM*

ANYWAY my first and immediate thought; I sincerely doubt that House gets that many posts and is that involved if he were scum. Yes, his iso when he's scum isn't exactly

short

, but he's on an entirely different level this game especially given how short each day phase has been. I'll obviously need to actually READ to bump him up to the highest of high town tiers but just from the volume, I'm bumping my townread on him up a notch.

I realize "effort != alignment" necessarily, that quantity of posting is not a reliable indicator a slot is town--but in the case of House specifically, I don't think he gets THIS much done if he were scum.

[Roden]

VOTE: Mastina

I think Guillo was working triple duty to try to control the game. Robert was scum read from the start and everyone still left in the game at this moment besides Mastina all could have done something to help him power wolf, either through helping build narratives or discussing flavor claims. We 100% know for a fact that Robert had no help in finding a half-decent flavor claim, to the point that I recognized the post he made about Spekkio came from one of the fan wikis (Robert even took the info from the wiki I linked earlier in the game). Guillo admitted he had close to no knowledge about Chrono Trigger too, so it all implies that the entirety of the scum team had zero info to work with.

Dwlee technically would be a candidate for being the third scum with no knowledge of the flavor, but not only did he help get out Cyrus, if he's scum then Guillo was hard bussing both of his team mates which...yeah, that's just awful play and I'm pretty sure he's better than that. Because if he did manage to push out both his team mates then there's just no fucking way he reasonably makes it to ELo without getting NK'd. Dwlee also tried to 1v1 me at the point Guillo was hard pushing him, which is just hard to believe they'd think was a good play if scum when I was being begrudgingly town read by almost everyone at the time.

AFAIK nobody else is ignorant about Chrono Trigger knowledge, nor would they be incompetent enough to let Robert and Cyrus keep making bad flavor claims and then scum claim.

My best guess is that Mastina could've helped with all of that, but was unfortunately absent/the game progressed too quickly for her to be of much help. Scum flailed all game and I'm feeling confident it was because it wasn't always a full team effort.

[mastina]

Meh. RMH is a better vote.

So I'm quoting this basically as a bit of a bookmark for a few reasons.

One of the things I did aside from starting the House iso is iso myself, as while I've not gotten to play 90% of the game, of the 10% remaining, 8% of it was in the area I am reading from House's iso. Which is to say, I was actually actively participating in the game for about a day and a half or so on the first ~400 posts (376 to be more exact).

I was looking from two metrics:
How well did House's thoughts line up/resonate with my thinking at the time,
And How well does House's thoughts from back then hold up to the test of time?

On both metrics, House passes with flying colors.
His thoughts at that time had a high resonance with my own thoughts at the time while not being carbon copies of them. He had a lot of the same general ideas and thoughts that I did but was clearly not trying to get on my good side with them, coming up on his conclusions on his own and pushing his own thoughts forward.

And with the benefit of hindsight, his thoughts from back then still line up as being good, of being strongly town, and have good areas of support. Such as the feeling of Lukewarm being town but not locktowningly so, and many other thoughts from the area.

Also, this was one of the first pushes on flipped scum, so that, too.

I feel confident moving House to locktown now. Still going to read the rest of the iso to see if there's more that gives me better direction but that puts me at:

Locktown:
House

High town:
Angel Warriors

Clear-for-now-town:
Lukewarm

Lean town:
Dwlee

Remainder:
{Roden, Marashu}

[House]

Sorry btw AW, I was 99% sure you'd claim VT (would be stupid to paint that kind of target on your head as a PR) and I didn't want to be the one responsible for outing Frog.

[Lukewarm]

Well I for one hoped Frog would out, so that we can narrow the PoE. But that is not the world we live in. Let me release my draft from earlier

[Lukewarm]

I am leaning pretty strong into the idea that the scum team was floating spekkio as a potential fake claim. Followed up by their fake claims of Melchior and Gaspar

The opening post implied we had 7 VTs and three PRs who were likely Crono Lucca and Frog. I don't think it makes any sense for somebody to be Informed that Frog is in the game when that's already implied by the fact that Frog fights Yakra in the video game.

It also doesn't make any sense for Gaspar or Spekkio to be here since they don't get introduced until AFTER the boss fight. And why the hell would Cyrus be in the game when in the video game he'd already died? Cyrus has nothing to do with the Yakra boss fight at all.

This isn't a general Chrono Trigger themed game, it's specifically about the Yakra arc. T3 is just trying to bait Frog into outting themself.

I'm Melchior and my neighbor is Lukewarm.

This is scum.

Melchior is not connected to the Yakra battle. He repairs Masamune for Frog AFTER the battle.

Roden and house would never have let any of those ideas be floated, much less ALL THREE. And their "these claims make no sense" were pretty rapid after the claims as well.

So, imo, we are almost in auto win, depending on who ended up being Frog. We have 3 shots, and 4 suspects (3 if Frog is outside of Roden + House)

With mastina - Marashu - Angel Warriors - Dwlee99

I am probably sitting with a shoot order of something like (making the exception for who ever claimed frog)

Mastina
Dwlee
AW
Mara

Obviously, if any of Me/House/Roden make it to Elo, this should be thrown out the window. But I think that all 3 of us should be in "not eliminated at any point before elo"

[House]

Mastina
Dwlee
AW
Mara

I don't get why you would even put Mara in that list.

[House]

So rather than speculating on potential unclaimed PRs, how about I speculate for a minute on Gamma, who we know was a PR. The flip first had me thinking Gamma might have been someone who could make devices for others to use, but I've come around on believing that

Gamma was our investigative role

. Flavour-wise, Lucca the inventor starts with a scope lens, which gives details on the party's enemies. So I started looking at Gamma's D2 looking for a hint, and I think Gamma might have had a guilty.

Spoiler: Gamma's D2 posts about the Guil/Cyrus slot

First post D2:

I Really think we should be looking closely at Guillotina today. I Believe that Kyouko was onto something when pushing him.

This implies that Gamma does have the full picture:

I don’t think any of you have the FULL picture
I initially thought both Guillo and kyouko were individually scummy, but not teamed. I’d already been feeling like Guillo’s energy had a potential towniness to it at that point. Eventually that energy became enough to make guillo a TR individually. At this point however I saw that kyouko got speedlimmed and flipped town, with the person I thought she was TvS with dropping the hammer. So I think it’s reasonable for guillo to fall into SR range when I weigh the things that had happened since I last posted.

I didnt intent to quickhammer, you know how i play with my votes to wage for reactions, when i realized kyoko was at -1 it was already too late.

I don’t exactly buy it.

Gamma wanting to make sure that the Guil slot doesn't get towncored:

Why am I on here twice? Why is Titus so high?

I’m more concerned about G being in the top tier

G I really must ask, why did you post these?

well it looks more like you are pissed the kill got blocked and are letting that emotion seep through while trying to act like it's all good

though tbh I have a thought on this subject. G can you link a few of your scumgames? I kinda just got the vibe this was like how you acted D2 in Large Normal 230

Softing the guilty

Luke. There’s a very good reason for why I said I believed Kyouko on Guillo, but unless I have to I don’t want to have to get into it. Just know you’re barking up the wrong fucking tree.

VOTE: Guillotina
Was half-tempted to vote Roden but I really think this is where people should be voting.

Strange that Gamma specifically wants Guil to claim first, except to try to catch the lie.

Gamma, I'd like you to flavorclaim.

Not unless Guillotina role claims first.

At this point, Gamma is trying to get a wagon going on without wanting to lead the wagon.

And like, if Guillotina doesn’t gain solid traction at some point today T3 is a perfectly acceptable lim as well IMO. The fact they’ve been a voting bloc practically this entire day phase is such a red flag.

If House votes you I think that’ll be the point a wagon on you can actually form

I'd like some other opinions on this (especially Roden and House), but I think this is accurate. VOTE: Cyrus62

@Lukewarm in what world does scum make this post when their buddy isn't even being pressured?

[House]

VOTE: dwlee

I'm back to feeling this. Mainly for him trying to throw me back in the mislim pool still nagging at me + his lack of flavor knowledge fits in with the bad fake claims from scum

[Dwlee99]

So bad at flavor that I knew Cyrus should have claimed MP and he didn't.

[Dwlee99]

If I was in a PT with Cyrus, anything he did there would be completely against my (and probably anyone else's) wishes. I don't think trying to figure out who wouldn't let their partner do that is a worthwhile endeavor. I tried coaching Cyrus in that game I linked, he doesn't really take direction.

[Dwlee99]

And also guillo slot was gunning for me etc. etc.

[Dwlee99]

Why would scum want to steal their own vote when they can steal it from town? Im sorry but that question is dumb.

For this exact reason possibly? Now I have a townread on Gamma, so I don't think it has happened here, but that you didn't think about it makes me think you're not seriously trying to sort people. You're being performative.

Hey Guillotina, why do you act like me and Robert have to have the same alignment because Droo targeted both of us with the vote? How does knowing mine or Robert's alignment inform the other cause of that? Couldn't they have targeted scum with the second vote for WIFOM? This is huge TMI right now.

If I faked a day cop guilty on Guillotina would people believe it?

Idk maybe these are scum theater and Robert, guillo, and I are all hard distancing but also no because I'm town.

[Dwlee99]

And for context I thought in 1240 that Robert was town.

You can also track my ISO and see how I felt differently about Guillo and was trying to push him following the guilty soft, even saying I would "fake a day cop guilty" because I saw the soft. But then Gamma eventually moved away from it and I was like "oh nevermind I guess?"

[House]

Locktown:
House

High town:
Angel Warriors

Clear-for-now-town:
Lukewarm

Lean town:
Dwlee

Remainder:
{Roden, Marashu}

Let me fix this for you.

Locktown:
House, Roden, Marashu

High town:
Angel Warriors

Clear-for-now-town:
Lukewarm

Remainder:
Dwlee, mastina

[Dwlee99]

Pretty sure Spekkio would be evil, according to a Google search it's a boss in the game

also I know I'm the one saying it but I think I town slipped here if we think scum were in depth talking about fake claims like Spekkio