mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[Green Cap Boys]

sup fucks i am alive

@mastina, why do you even townread our slot anyway?

If anyone touches my top tier, ill be pissed

This is at least mildly +town, I'd say.

-S

this is mildly pinging my "scum weakly defending a townie getting run up" tell but /shrug *maybe* i'm tunneled at this point

can someone tl;dr me the fairy circle case? other than "they're not townie".

also usually i would try to take a day off but considering the deadline i'll try to check as often as possible

-D

[Fairy Circle]

We have 2 pain, and 1 doctor.

Is that potion distribution more likely to come from town or scum?
(Assuming it’s legitimate)

Statisically it's more likely to be a scum distribution.

Also godsdangit mom sign your posts! now I see where the confusion was...

[Dwlee99]

If town with two pain potions dies tonight we lose a vig shot.

[Fairy Circle]

Not quite, we can only use one per night.
So more a N2 vigilante we lock in on N1.

-Malefleacent

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

this is mildly pinging my "scum weakly defending a townie getting run up" tell but /shrug *maybe* i'm tunneled at this point

Can I negate that by saying I figured someone was going to have that reaction?

-S

[Fairy Circle]

ok so with our replace in, we apparently replaced in Monday, Titus commented on it my time at around midnight, and I wasn't even aware the sub had gone through, I logged in on wednesday to find Mom prodding me, reminding me that we were in the game. (Game wasn't up when I checked it saturday night, and that sunday I was shooting arrows at people)

As for the weekend just gone, antibiotics absolutely blow and I'm half way through the course, but I'm a little less stunlocked by them for now.


Now Maleficent doesn't have any songs... so I need to find one I feel appropriate for her...

-Malefleacent.

[T3]

If anyone touches my top tier, ill be pissed

This is at least mildly +town, I'd say.

-S

I'm opening this phone post with a VOTE: T3 because apparently he fails to understand that I am not Mom and Mom is not I.

Between myself and Mom we have essentially veto'd voting for Titus and Norwee as these are our most conflicting reads.

I do have thoughts on bingle and TLDNE. But I am on a phone
It's also 10am here.
(For the record, Mom is in Hawaii and I'm in the UK, coordination is hard :p when we're 11 hours apart.)

My meds are still lightly screwing me (I genuinely hate antibiotics) but I will be coming in with my full draconic might behind me once my shopping arrives and I have coffee.


As we are at E-1 with a looming deadline, I will claim our potions.
We have 2 pain, and 1 doctor.
-Malefleacent

You're voting me for confusing you with Mom? And why exactly, is this scummy?

[T3]

sup fucks i am alive

@mastina, why do you even townread our slot anyway?

If anyone touches my top tier, ill be pissed

This is at least mildly +town, I'd say.

-S

this is mildly pinging my "scum weakly defending a townie getting run up" tell but /shrug *maybe* i'm tunneled at this point

can someone tl;dr me the fairy circle case? other than "they're not townie".

also usually i would try to take a day off but considering the deadline i'll try to check as often as possible

-D

Why does a Norwee/Dwlee/T3 solve seem likely to draw negative attention to you?

Well aside from antagonizing all three of the players involved when all three are at least a little prone to OMGUS tendencies, there's the fact that aside from maybe MAYBE Dwlee there's basically very little chance of the push having momentum to it. While scum-Titus can make pushes on players she know won't go through specifically because she knows they won't go through, this tendency is something I'd more expect if she were genuine in her belief.

Mastina, sell me on LimitScum.

Don't really need to. It's mostly POE. I have townreads on most players in the game. I don't have a townread on TheLimitDoesNotExist. This, in spite of both heads being heads that I would expect to be able to generate townreads on. They're too reserved, too passive, too not-making-wavesey. They're doing basically nothing, and certainly nothing which looks town.

Does that make them lockscum? Where an absence of doing much of anything makes them be definitely scum? No, not on its own. But when you combine it with a combination of expecting them to radiate town + everyone else looking town + their defense of slots I am suspicious of + their lackluster content + other players I'd expect to be able to read them not having lock-solid townreads on them (basically, I would expect other players who're town to be able to locktown them if they were town and yet as far as I can tell that hasn't happened) all adds up to a lean scum read.

It's nothing concrete, sadly.

---

So I may or may not be around in time tomorrow for a deadline rush. Given that, this is compromise zone where any of the 3 I want to eliminate, I will.

with 11 alive, it takes 6 to cause someone to Wet. day 1 ends in (expired on 2021-08-17 12:30:00)[/b]

As far as I can tell, 0 votes on Fairy Circle in this votecount, so:

VOTE: Fairy Circle

1/6

VOTE: Fairy Circle

2/6

VOTE: FAIRY

3/6

VOTE: Fairy Circle

4/6

So I am pretty damn sure this is not a hammer, but this SHOULD be:
VOTE: Fairy Circle

Fairy Circle is at

L-1

.

Flea, Mara, I <3 you, I really don't want to lim you D1, but I think you're scum and while I don't want to lim you D1 a scum elimination is better than a town one and I don't trust the town to eliminate scum if it's not eliminating {Bingle, TLDNE, Fairy Circle} and yours is the only among the 3 with support right now so I'm sorry. <3

That's the exact strategy scum Titus used in Situation Room while pushing me.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Fairy Circle who is your strongest scumread and why?

[T3]

sup fucks i am alive

@mastina, why do you even townread our slot anyway?

If anyone touches my top tier, ill be pissed

This is at least mildly +town, I'd say.

-S

this is mildly pinging my "scum weakly defending a townie getting run up" tell but /shrug *maybe* i'm tunneled at this point

can someone tl;dr me the fairy circle case? other than "they're not townie".

also usually i would try to take a day off but considering the deadline i'll try to check as often as possible

-D

1. Fake townslip
2. PoE
3. Norwee's gut

[T3]

Gonna try to do some math stuff with the potions...

[NorwegianboyEE]

3. Norwee's gut

No plz, i will feel bad if the town ((

(But if they are scum i’m taking all the credit)

[Fairy Circle]

If anyone touches my top tier, ill be pissed

This is at least mildly +town, I'd say.

-S

I'm opening this phone post with a VOTE: T3 because apparently he fails to understand that I am not Mom and Mom is not I.

Between myself and Mom we have essentially veto'd voting for Titus and Norwee as these are our most conflicting reads.

I do have thoughts on bingle and TLDNE. But I am on a phone
It's also 10am here.
(For the record, Mom is in Hawaii and I'm in the UK, coordination is hard :p when we're 11 hours apart.)

My meds are still lightly screwing me (I genuinely hate antibiotics) but I will be coming in with my full draconic might behind me once my shopping arrives and I have coffee.


As we are at E-1 with a looming deadline, I will claim our potions.
We have 2 pain, and 1 doctor.
-Malefleacent

You're voting me for confusing you with Mom? And why exactly, is this scummy?

Your are voting based on my activity in your post that votes for us. We have clearly said how far behind each of us are, I am 13 pages, Momcinda was 20.
Your vote is based on catching up 13 pages to gain nothing on bingle, you've voted Mom based on me.

Its opportunistic and scummy as all hell. It stinks of "Well you can't fault the reasons I have voted..." when we flip green.

[Fairy Circle]

Fairy Circle who is your strongest scumread and why?

I still need to catchup, for now use momcinda's reads.

-Malefleacent, and above.

[T3]

I might be horribly misunderstanding this but the probability of town getting 2 pain potions is about 18% meanwhile scum getting 2 pain potions is about 24%.

[T3]

If anyone touches my top tier, ill be pissed

This is at least mildly +town, I'd say.

-S

I'm opening this phone post with a VOTE: T3 because apparently he fails to understand that I am not Mom and Mom is not I.

Between myself and Mom we have essentially veto'd voting for Titus and Norwee as these are our most conflicting reads.

I do have thoughts on bingle and TLDNE. But I am on a phone
It's also 10am here.
(For the record, Mom is in Hawaii and I'm in the UK, coordination is hard :p when we're 11 hours apart.)

My meds are still lightly screwing me (I genuinely hate antibiotics) but I will be coming in with my full draconic might behind me once my shopping arrives and I have coffee.


As we are at E-1 with a looming deadline, I will claim our potions.
We have 2 pain, and 1 doctor.
-Malefleacent

You're voting me for confusing you with Mom? And why exactly, is this scummy?

Your are voting based on my activity in your post that votes for us. We have clearly said how far behind each of us are, I am 13 pages, Momcinda was 20.
Your vote is based on catching up 13 pages to gain nothing on bingle, you've voted Mom based on me.

Its opportunistic and scummy as all hell. It stinks of "Well you can't fault the reasons I have voted..." when we flip green.

> accusing me of opportunism

[T3]

So first, I was not voting you based on activity, I was voting you because that readlist looked scummy af. Bingle still existed on page 10. Also, you do realize that for all intents and purposes, you and Momrangal occupy the same slot? So you doing something scummy and being scum means that Momrangal is also scum?

[T3]

The probability of geting a doctor potion, regardless of alignment is 22%.

[T3]

The probability of this claim being scum vs town is 33% more likely to come from scum.

[Fairy Circle]

Diggy diggy hole.

Yes we're a hydra, yes you read this slot based on the content of both heads, yes our potion layout is more likely to come from scum, I did some working out long before your did. Yes I have accepted we're going down.

Your vote post stated things that were explicitly aimed at one heads catchup but accused the other head.

Statistically, yes we are more likely to be scum. However. It is not impossible for town to have this loadout.

We've been given statistics and I will go pull my post for oyu.

-Malefleacent.

[Dwlee99]

I don't feel good about this lim anymore but I've gotten cold feet on a scum wagon a bunch of times before so not sure

[Fairy Circle]

Sometimes it easier to ask forgiveness than permission.
I will do neither.


8 town, 3 mafia.

Approximately 11 pain potions.
Mafia have additional 1.2 pain potions approximately, giving them an average of 4 pain potions. This could be more, this could be less. This accounts for 2 kills over 4 days.

That is a total of 12-13 HP damage assuming that each potion deals a single point of damage.
11 players, that will create approximately 6 kills in this game assuming all pain potions are able to be used.

As learned from Yggdrasil, town can and will use their abilities and will not hold them.
As learned from Yggdrasil, mafia do not have the option of an outright kill, forcing them to use their potions.
I will not say what I consider their optimal potion play to be. I don't want to give them ideas.

As for optimal day play, they are required to absolutely stir the pot more than the King and Queen did when they invited the other courts, but not myself to their little celebration.

-Malefleacent.

Et voila.

The potion pool has an absolute minimum of 11 pain potions due to the possibility of each person having on average 1 pain potion. Mafia as individuals have an additional 0.4 each chance giving them the average pain pot each of 1.4. This means it's safe to assume there is an absolute minimum of 11 pain potions and I'd say, as I have above, there's the potential for 12-13 pain potions.

Us having two, means someone doesn't have a potion. There is a chance is this a mafia member.
The fun thing about this game is that you can gauge probability all you want, but it can, and will, shoot you in the foot.

It's possible for some to end up with 3 pain pots, and for others to have none.
You cannot solve this game using probability. You can only look at potential balance.

[Dwlee99]

I don't think that's how the distribution works.

[Dwlee99]

As in, the part about you having two meaning someone has to have none (although that has been claimed).

[T3]

Diggy diggy hole.

Yes we're a hydra, yes you read this slot based on the content of both heads, yes our potion layout is more likely to come from scum, I did some working out long before your did. Yes I have accepted we're going down.

Your vote post stated things that were explicitly aimed at one heads catchup but accused the other head.

Statistically, yes we are more likely to be scum. However. It is not impossible for town to have this loadout.

We've been given statistics and I will go pull my post for oyu.

-Malefleacent.

Ohhhh
UNVOTE: