mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[Fairy Circle]

Maths is far from my strongest suit, to put it bluntly, I don't have a completed high school maths certification, I have an adults catch up basic maths certification.

I could look at it more later, but annoyingly I've been informed the DnD game I'd have ronight is now in person, and I need to haul my ass out.

[T3]

I don't think that's how the distribution works.

No, that's not how it works and I think everything is calculated independently.
There were 2 options:
Either this is a fakeclaim. Because Flea just pulled the math out right here, it's probably not.

[T3]

Maths is far from my strongest suit, to put it bluntly, I don't have a completed high school maths certification, I have an adults catch up basic maths certification.

I could look at it more later, but annoyingly I've been informed the DnD game I'd have ronight is now in person, and I need to haul my ass out.

That's why Wolfram Alpha exists

[T3]

Okay wait
So yes, this potion distribution is 33% more likely to come from scum. And on average scum are going to have ~3.24 potions, meanwhile town will have 2.14 potions? So this

is

more likely to come from scum than town, because I don't think it's fake.

confusion

[T3]

So the specific number of potions Fairy has is 51% more likely to come from scum, and the specific potions are 33% more likely to come from scum.

[Dwlee99]

Who cares

[T3]

Flea seems to have the math that says their potions are more likely to come from scum than town which makes me think they're town. WIFOM exists...

[T3]

If this is town then we lose a vig shot, if this is scum then they lose a vig shot. But scum don't have a factional kill. In total scum will on average have 4.2 pain potions. Fairy has 2 pain potions. So if Fairy is scum limming them would [on average] halve scum's killing power.
VOTE: Fairy

[T3]

Meanwhile if Fairy is town limming them would [on average] take our killing power down by just 25%.

[T3]

In a vacuum, limming Fairy is the optimal decision.

[RCEnigma]

I may be a simple man but lim all scum win game. Not that im a mechanical player in the first place but percentages and probabilities dont make an elim optimal or suboptimal in my eyes.

[Green Cap Boys]

yeeting by math is a horrible idea. fairy might be scum anyway but "they're 2.54% more likely to have that potion distribution as scum" is a bad

rce, why are you voting fairy again? nobody has provided me a tldr yet

-D

[T3]

As in, the part about you having two meaning someone has to have none (although that has been claimed).

Fairy is still scummy for the townslip thing.
Math says Fairy is more likely to be scum, yeeting scum Fairy is bad for the scum.

[Dwlee99]

I was once like 80% chance scum or something in a game and yeeting me there loses the game probably cause instead I hard pushed someone as evil correctly that day phase.

[Dwlee99]

Fairy kinda scummy kinda PoE true. Am I feeling cold feet? Also true

[T3]

Without taking math into account, that's where I'm also at.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Man where’s Emperor at.

[schadd_]

Spoiler:

votey 1.30.000.01.0 !

Fairy Circle (5):

NorwegianboyEE, Dwlee99, RCEnigma, mastina, T3

T3 (2):

The Emperor, Fairy Circle

Dwlee99 (1):

Titus

The Limit Does Not Exist (1):

Green Cap Boys

RCEnigma (1):

Bingle

not voting (1):

The Limit Does Not Exist

with 11 alive, it takes 6 to cause someone to Wet. day 1 ends in (expired on 2021-08-17 12:30:00)

modorator notes

• drink potions
  
• prodding the emperor

[The Limit Does Not Exist]

couldn’t talk about it until now - FGO just ended and that was a super major source of anxiety for me. now that it’s over I should be way more present here because my brain isn’t busy crying over being the conftown in F3. give me a few hours to bask in the glow (and also, like, work) but I should be here tonight and able to read thoroughly.

- lilith

[Titus]

VOTE: T3

I feel that Fairy is getting run up solely for defending me and I don't like it.

[RCEnigma]

yeeting by math is a horrible idea. fairy might be scum anyway but "they're 2.54% more likely to have that potion distribution as scum" is a bad

rce, why are you voting fairy again? nobody has provided me a tldr yet

-D

no one but titus and I want a dwlee lim despite almost everyone else calling them scummy or having them in the bottom of their pool and tldne had some good posting via lillith + ss slip probably comes from town over scum, could it be fake yeah i guess but I'm not keen on their elim anymore.

fairy dumbtelling rubbed me wrong and pushed me to throw a vote down and see where it goes. spending more time explaining why they arent posting instead of posting doesnt sway me away from the wagon.

[Dwlee99]

RC what did you think of my reads?

[The Emperor]

Man where’s Emperor at.

[The Emperor]

(At work, gonna catch up tonight)

[RCEnigma]

RC what did you think of my reads?

i'm in the bottom of the poe with mastina so i dont think they're spot on and are mostly consensus. i super dislike the bingle read since the angle is that hes town because hes potionless which assumes:

A.) There exists 1 potionless player
and
2.) potionless can only be distributed to town

I doubt the setup allows for confirmed town from the onset of the game or there would have just been an IC at daystart. If your read is deeper than that I missed it. Also not a fan that a titus!town flip doesnt change how you see the game at all, but thats minor since its diving into hypotheticals anyway.

we agree on gcb and norwee though so thats something.