mini theme 2229: MBOS 13 schweppes' pulpy potions daya 5

[RCEnigma]

Well....at least you took something from that wall post.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I probably should have checked Emperor. That was an bad call.

[RCEnigma]

Anyway your case for me is flawed in that I was very adamant in pushing FC near deadline. So to frame it as allowing momentum to keep flowing into Titus is disingenuous at best.

I can't be an obstacle and not an obstacle at the same time.

[mastina]

Also:
While I don't want to give a full readslist unless I live to D3, I do at least want to give a PARTIAL readslist today:

Never Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

Green Cap Boys
NorwegianboyEE

Probably Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

T3

Possibly Not Eliminating or Pain Potioning:

The Emperor (almost put him in above category for what it's worth tho)
Dwlee99

Beyond that, you'll just have to wait and see.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I really don't know what you're planning but i'm not complaining Mastina.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Anyway your case for me is flawed in that I was very adamant in pushing FC near deadline. So to frame it as allowing momentum to keep flowing into Titus is disingenuous at best.

I can't be an obstacle and not an obstacle at the same time.

Your avatar turning evil says otherwise.

[RCEnigma]

Your avatar is like, 8, what do you know?

[NorwegianboyEE]

:(

[mastina]

This reminds me I wanted to ask you yesterday independent of already scumreading bingle. Do you think Scum!Bingle makes his mechanical wall and intentionally has scum!Dwlee jump in to obfuscate his town plan proposal?

No, because I don't think Dwlee is scum. I'm not sure Dwlee is town but I feel like Dwlee is at the very least town enough for now, to figure out on a later day phase if that towniness is justified or not.

Even IF Bingle and Dwlee were scum together, I wouldn't imagine it was a coordinated play; quite the opposite, it'd be an uncoordinated play where they had disagreements. But that's a big 'if' given I don't think Dwlee is scum but DO think Bingle is scum.

So basically:

I guess more directly asking would be do you think the interactions between bingle and dwlee are genuine or fabricated?

I think the interactions are genuine but even IF both were scum I would think that to be the case as it is possible to have genuine scum interactions without them being fabricated if the players have disagreements, something Bingle with Dwlee would be likely to have.

Forced to choose one to be scum though I'd always choose Bingle as the scum over Dwlee, but there's nothing clearing nor condemning about the Bingle-Dwlee interactions imo.

(Btw in case it was unclear; I used the watch potion on Green Cap Boys. Nobody used a pain potion on them last night.)

Odd. So it appears either scum isn't trying to kill any of the most nightkill baity players at all or they aren't using pain potions.

So I ask you again:

No kill tonight makes me think scum either has low pain potions

Hmm, I wonder which slot claimed to have no potions?
Could the slot having claimed that, perhaps, have been scum?

Food for thought.

Why would scum not target Mastina?

Well scum didn't target GCP the second most obvtown player behind myself so the question isn't why did scum not target me but rather "why did scum not target the towniest most likely to be watched/protected slots in the game", and the answer to that I think can be found here:

Scum should not actually kill a player tonight

. Arsonist >> Goon. It's a pretty trivial understanding, but putting their shots into three separate players is better for scum because it denies us information right now and doesn't negatively impact their turns to win. Obviously, this may be different because of the composition of the scum team and whether a specific player is scary, but what this REALLY means is that scum is likely to spread out their kills tonight, regardless of what we do. We want to use harmography specifically tonight because of this.

My suggestion, for N1

we use the No Pain option

and for N2 we use the Limited pool option. This gives us more information when targeting the vig shot (possibly even a guilty) and gives us optimal usage of the harmography potions on the night when it's most likely for them to be useful.

If scum goes wide on kills, they increase the chances we hit one of them with a watcher result

. If scum goes for a kill, they risk being caught as MULTIPLE BAD ACTORS by one investigation.

Tell me, Norwee: if Bingle is scum here, what sort of kill strategy do you think the scumteam would be going for?

'Cause I actually think the lack of the two most widely townread players being targeted by pain potions is pretty damn condemning for Bingle being scum, because it means EITHER: Bingle is scum and had huge input on the scumteam's actions OR: the scumteam in spite of not having Bingle among them still followed his plan anyway and took advantage of it.

The latter is not impossible but the former is far more likely.

Which scumteam do you think has the most reason to have holstered on pain potions and/or targeted players that aren't nightkill-baity?

The one led by Bingle, or the one without Bingle?

[mastina]

I probably should have checked Emperor. That was an bad call.

I mean Emperor was my second choice, too, but I valued the townness of GCB more especially due to the latter half of the day phase, where Emperor's activity (and thus, towniness) fell off a cliff whereas GCB's towniness skyrocketed.

I really don't know what you're planning but i'm not complaining Mastina.

It's really not much of a plan if I'm honest.

[RCEnigma]

Which scumteam do you think has the most reason to have holstered on pain potions and/or targeted players that aren't nightkill-baity?

The one led by Bingle, or the one without Bingle

The only hole I can poke in that argument is that the chance of a highly townread slot actually being scum is nonzero and by virtue wouldn't be scum targeted. Which doesn't condemn or exonerate bingle but can't be used as a gotchya for scum!bingle when the explanation could just as easily be "maybe town just has really shit reads"

[NorwegianboyEE]

My avatar symbolizes my inner child.

[RCEnigma]

Yeah but it's a picture of me.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Which scumteam do you think has the most reason to have holstered on pain potions and/or targeted players that aren't nightkill-baity?

The one led by Bingle, or the one without Bingle?

It's not like it has to be Bingle just because we know GCB and you weren't target last night.
Maybe me, Emperor and Dwlee all got poisoned and we checked wrong because scum assumed Mastina/GCB would be bad targets for night 1.

[RCEnigma]

I thought you said yesterday that Titus was likely scum with the slots defending her since it would contradict your argument but I can't find it so maybe it was someone else.

You did claim it was one of the slots WK'ing Titus so you have consistency I guess. It doesn't make the case good though.

[RCEnigma]

VOTE: Fairy circle

When I wake up I'll think about my own hero solve.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I thought you said yesterday that Titus was likely scum with the slots defending her since it would contradict your argument but I can't find it so maybe it was someone else.

You did claim it was one of the slots WK'ing Titus so you have consistency I guess. It doesn't make the case good though.

Ok? I don't remember what i said.

[RCEnigma]

You didn't but I remember it being said.

[Green Cap Boys]

i woke up, i skimmed the past few pages, i realized lilith posted only twice and neither of those posts were actual content, so here we go again

VOTE: the limit does not exist

by the way, this whole "i pained x i pained y" claims are really really reminding me of mbos 12, where town was just throwing damage around like dumb and it resulted in three kills on n2. today might as well be lylo.

actual catching up when i manage to give a fuck about this game

-D

[NorwegianboyEE]

I agree that none of town should ever use pain potions for what it's worth.
It just turns every slot into an mini vig, and vigs are usually bad shots so it's likely always going to end up in an wild west shootout that favours scums win condition like 99% of the time. And even if scum get's hit they need to get hit another time with the pain potion.
We're better of relying on eliminations.

[The Emperor]

No paining here

Happy birthday, Dwlee. Have a dark and pleasant day.

[Dwlee99]

Thank you the senate

[Dwlee99]

Not paining actually bad, town has extra kill power and should use it to shoot in poe like Yggdrasil.

So I watched t3 last night and no one harmed them. I picked t3 because I thought two things: if t3 is scum, we could get clears cause I thought town might dump shots there. And if t3 is town, scum might attack him because they'd suspect he is unlikely to be watched. That no one attacked him makes me think now that t3 might be evil.

Also no kill could be because a doctor or jailkeep, not necessarily going wide, scum can only do three damage each night.

[The Emperor]

I don't think the Titus wagon was scum-driven, Dwlee and NorwegianBoy's exasperation there seemed pretty genuine. Other two votes were the Cap Boys who just overall seem town and Faircy Circle, who I'm unsure on and will have to check how they ended up on Titus

Also, I agree with Dwlee saying Bingle's no potion claim very early is likely to come from town. It's basically the equivalent of claiming VT start of day 1, and those are very often town because it gives you less room to work with, and less incentive for town to keep you around.

Also, Bingle's a very mech driven player, and I doubt he as scum decides to claim no potions knowing the disadvantage he's giving himself later eith inability to claim JK or haema or whatever.

And yeah, there is a minimal chance he's scum who actually just got no potions, but it's very unlikely given the extra odds scum have for potions, and still a bad strat imo.

[The Emperor]

Limit have posted today but seem more focused on defending themselves with stuff like 1589 rather than providing the promised insights/reads. Defending yourself is fine but it's scum-indicative when it's in the place of actual reads and content.

VOTE: Limit

Lethargic scum who really didn't wanna roll scum is all I see when I read that slot