Mini 2230: Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night: Game Over

[Lukewarm]

Dunn and Medea? Every fiber of my being says that

they

Medea is scum when I look over their isos from days 1 and 2, but dunn has seemed super town, and I just dont see how the mech could work on scum medea.

[Lukewarm]

To be real, it feels like A LOT of people are dismissing the plan, because not trying to kill scum today does not "feel right" and trying to vote out the scum does "feel right" without actually looking at the pros and cons of the plans.

Spoiler:

[Lukewarm]

And, like.... Captain America said that... right before they fucking lost to thanos.

And in the next movie, they actually win because both black widow and iron man do sacrifice themselves.

That kind of thematically proves my point lol.

[Annie Edison]

Except every single thing had to fall into place perfectly to beat thanos including those actions

[Lukewarm]

Don't really want to debate a movie in here.

But, when I see an option that is like way more +ev for us to win, not doing it because of the "principle" of it is very very not convincing to me

If you have a perfect solve, and we kill them today and tomorrow directly, then we win. If you have a perfect solve, and we do my plan, and then kill them tomorrow and the next day, we still win (EVEN IF MY PLAN FAILS BTW - like, if they have a roleblocker, it still works with a perfect solve today)

If you have the perfect solve, we win either way.

But if your solve is wrong, we lose with your plan. And if your solve is wrong, we get to try again with my plan.

So, I'm playing to my win condition by pushing it as hard as I can.

[borkjerfkin]

hello all. hope everyone is having a wonderful day.

Votecount 4.2

[2] Annie Edison (Lady Lambdadelta, unwnd)
[2] ArcAngel9 (ManateeGal, Here There Be Dragons)
[1] Lukewarm (ArcAngel9)

[6] Not Voting (Annie Edison, Dunnstral, Lukewarm, Medea the Alien, Spiffeh, Snarky fishes)

With 11 alive, it is 6 to eliminate.

Spoiler: Shard Vote

[11] Not Voting (Annie Edison, ArcAngel9, Dunnstral, Here There Be Dragons, Lady Lambdadelta, Lukewarm, ManateeGal, Medea the Alien, unwnd, Snarky fishes, Spiffeh)

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-08-26 23:00:00)

[Snarky Fishes]

Compiling claims and flips... we have...

1. Annie Edison (notscience/The Bulge) - VT/1-shot Cop
2. ArcAngel9 - VT/VT
3. Dunnstral - Reflexive Rolename Cop / Reflexive self-watching rolecop
4. Here There Be Dragons (cephrir/Save the Dragons) VT/Desharder
5. Lady Lambdadelta - Demon-Adverse Hider/???
6. Lukewarm - VT/???
7. ManateeGal - VT/Backup of ???
8. Medea the Alien (cabd/penguin_alien) Introverted Doctor/Introverted Doctor (Starts with two shards)

9. PookyTheMagicalBear - Beloved Princess

10. unwnd - Shard Hander / ???
11. Snarky fishes (Bell/fferyllt) Supersaint/Vengeful
12. Spiffeh - VT/Macho Deathseeking Bodyguard

13. Titus - VT/Friendly Neighbor

Things stand out to me here.

I was looking for the current shard count (I think it's in your ISO), and noticed this.

Titus is wrong. her

human

ability was

fruit vendor

.

Maybe this was corrected later.

[Snarky Fishes]

I wonder if scum started with a finite number of shards.

It would be really cool if they did, because we can basically shut down the corrupter when they target town.

Though if the third scum ability is another beloved princess I'm going to break something.

Maybe the game is designed to highly incentivize scum going for the alternate wincon.

[Snarky Fishes]

Dunn and Medea? Every fiber of my being says that they are scum when I look over their isos from days 1 and 2, but dunn has seemed super town, and I just dont see how the mech could work on scum medea.

Could you reword? There's a clear contradiction between isoing Dun and Medea and thinking they're both scum days 1 and 2, but Dunn seeming super town, unless you're saying Dunn has only seemed super town this day phase.

Back.

-Bell

[Snarky Fishes]

HTBD: Would you you be willing to hammer us?

-Bell

[Lukewarm]

Dunn and Medea? Every fiber of my being says that they are scum when I look over their isos from days 1 and 2, but dunn has seemed super town, and I just dont see how the mech could work on scum medea.

Could you reword? There's a clear contradiction between isoing Dun and Medea and thinking they're both scum days 1 and 2, but Dunn seeming super town, unless you're saying Dunn has only seemed super town this day phase.

Back.

-Bell

I tried to fix it later. The "they" was penguin and cabd.

[Here There Be Dragons]

HTBD: Would you you be willing to hammer us?

-Bell

No, this is stupid and we are not participating in it

[Snarky Fishes]

Then I think that unwnd MUST agree to shard you tonight.

It delays the first deshard by a night, assuming manatee is a backup desharder, and it adds a demonic to the count that otherwise wouldn't happen, but after night 5 we should be back to today's count hopefully.

[Snarky Fishes]

all of this assumes scum can't put a spoke in town's wheel. :/

[Snarky Fishes]

Medea? Luke? Anyone?

Thoughts?

[Annie Edison]

That plan works for me.

[Lukewarm]

Then I think that unwnd MUST agree to shard you tonight.

It delays the first deshard by a night, assuming manatee is a backup desharder, and it adds a demonic to the count that otherwise wouldn't happen, but after night 5 we should be back to today's count hopefully.

This loses the game if we don't hit the corrupter today.

We are at 6 + 1 corrupted

If unwnd turns the dragons, and then the scum corrupt one and turn both, that is 9. We lose.

The only way for this plan to work we have to either: kill the scum corrupter directly or force a human townie to suicide on you. (And if we are forcing a human townie to suicide on you anyways, it should just be the dragons...)

Having unwnd shard the dragons feels like a bad plan. It also relies on trusting that both the dragons and unwnd are town. (To be fair, my plan requires trusting manatee to be town, but that feels safer to me)

[Snarky Fishes]

Cool, cool dragons.

Hammer us please. Ignore your feelings.

-Bell

[Lukewarm]

And like look at my pro / con post from last page x.x

[Annie Edison]

Yeah let’s have two townies purposefully kill each other instead of kill scum

That’s a great fucking idea how could this ever go wrong

[Lukewarm]

I actually am not sure why so many people are so against it anyways. Even if I am wrong, I am pretty sure that we are in the same boat as if we just hunt for the right scum team. And absolutely no one giving me a reasonable explanation of how it is better to do it your way sure does not make me feel like changing gears....

All plans involve finding our best guess for the scum team today, but then the different plans branch on how to go about killing them

------

Plan 1: Vote for the scum team directly this Day phase.

Spoiler:

If we are correct, we have killed scum today. Yay!

If we hit the Corrupter, then tomorrow will be the day before elo to find the other one (we have 1 miss shot)
If we hit the non-corrupter, then tomorrow is ELO. (we have no miss shots)

If we are wrong, we lose. On the spot. They turn 2 people tonight using the corrupter, and then there are 8 demons and 2 scum tomorrow.

------

Plan 2: Try to get our top scum read to hammer the Fishes

Spoiler:

If we are correct, they just refuse to hammer. We then have to vote them out directly. We kill scum today, Yay!

If we hit the Corrupter, then tomorrow will be the day before elo to find the other one. (we have 1 miss shot)
If we hit the non-corrupter, then tomorrow is ELO. (we have 0 miss shots)

If we are wrong, then a townie hammers you, and tomorrow is Elo. 2 scum alive, find the corrupter or lose. If we do this plan, hit a townie today, and then successfully find scum tomorrow, but it is the non-corrupter tomorrow we lose.

Plan 3: Ask the dragons to hammer the Fishes (then killing our top scum reads starting tomorrow)

Spoiler:

If we do this plan, and we are right, we buy ourselves SO FUCKING MUCH Leway. Like, omg, we can miss like 3 times afterwards. And we are getting so much more info to solve with.

If we are wrong, then we still don't lose. It is the same as missing in plan 2: tomorrow is Elo. 2 scum alive, find the corrupter or lose.

-----

My plan has THE BEST upside if it works, hands down. No one is even arguing this, I don't think

But then it does not even have the worst downsides on being wrong (see plan 1)...

And there are still people out there advocating plan 1...



To be real, it feels like A LOT of people are dismissing the plan, because not trying to kill scum today does not "feel right" and trying to vote out the scum does "feel right" without actually looking at the pros and cons of the plans.

This one

[Lukewarm]

Yeah let’s have two townies purposefully kill each other instead of kill scum

That’s a great fucking idea how could this ever go wrong

But you are instead on board for unwnd to demonize someone else, and make it that much closer for the scum team to win?

[Snarky Fishes]

VOTE: Snarky Fishes

FF signed off.

Dragons, hammer us.

-Bell

[Lukewarm]

Yeah let’s have two townies purposefully kill each other instead of kill scum

That’s a great fucking idea how could this ever go wrong

But you are instead on board for unwnd to demonize someone else, and make it that much closer for the scum team to win?

The scum team are very clearly not trying to win by killing townies, they are trying to win by turning humans into demons.

Killing townies does not actually make them closer to winning. Passing out shards does...

[Annie Edison]

Yeah I signed up to play mafia

I don’t particularly enjoy killing townies and won’t be a part of that shitstorm, y’all have fun with that shit

Call me when we decide to play the game right.