mini normal 2226; who won

[DkKoba]

this is why we do night checkins for people due for prods at EoD ;P

[Lukewarm]

This no kill, to me, suggests that scum thought I would block them. This would clear them. They then claim a useless result.

That leads me to Chaos being scum.

That's not the most palatable theory as Chaos faking a guilty makes no sense.


The next option is scum guessed I would block offensively. If that's the case, why not shoot Gamma or Chaos?

What part of this logic points to chaos over gamma?

Chaos's result from last night was an inno on Gamma

Gamma's result was an inno on koba

[Titus]

The logical solution here is to eliminate Not_Mafia. He's in nearly everyone's non-mechanical clears. Eliminating him gives us info about whether scum no killed deliberately or accidentally and it gives information about D1.

The hitch is I don't think Flubber v Umlaut was S v S but it could be.

[Titus]

This no kill, to me, suggests that scum thought I would block them. This would clear them. They then claim a useless result.

That leads me to Chaos being scum.

That's not the most palatable theory as Chaos faking a guilty makes no sense.


The next option is scum guessed I would block offensively. If that's the case, why not shoot Gamma or Chaos?

What part of this logic points to chaos over gamma?

Chaos's result from last night was an inno on Gamma

Gamma's result was an inno on koba

The logic doesn't factor in their results exactly. Chaos was a much likelier protect than Gamma was at the end of d3. So if there was a no kill to solidify a clear, it suggests Chaos. Could be Gamma with that logic though.

[MathBlade]

The logical solution here is to eliminate Not_Mafia. He's in nearly everyone's non-mechanical clears. Eliminating him gives us info about whether scum no killed deliberately or accidentally and it gives information about D1.

The hitch is I don't think Flubber v Umlaut was S v S but it could be.

Then don’t

You know this is a setup as do I.

We feel it.

Listen to that.

[Titus]

The logical solution here is to eliminate Not_Mafia. He's in nearly everyone's non-mechanical clears. Eliminating him gives us info about whether scum no killed deliberately or accidentally and it gives information about D1.

The hitch is I don't think Flubber v Umlaut was S v S but it could be.

Then don’t

You know this is a setup as do I.

We feel it.

Listen to that.

How is it a setup?

[MathBlade]

Because before today everyone TR’d not mafia.

A day we focus on not mafia is a day we don’t focus on the weird PR balance

[Titus]

Because before today everyone TR’d not mafia.

A day we focus on not mafia is a day we don’t focus on the weird PR balance

The balance isn't as weird as you suggest. I'm nerfed because I'm loyal. That means follow the cop cannot be done. I only clear someone if I guess right or they claim blocked. The only true clear I have is Datisi. The Gamma clear is just strongly indicated.

[MathBlade]

Because before today everyone TR’d not mafia.

A day we focus on not mafia is a day we don’t focus on the weird PR balance

The balance isn't as weird as you suggest. I'm nerfed because I'm loyal. That means follow the cop cannot be done. I only clear someone if I guess right or they claim blocked. The only true clear I have is Datisi. The Gamma clear is just strongly indicated.

I disagree.

I have ran through about 10-15 different calculations and not a one scum wins this setup. Not a one.

Ergo this setup being it is highly unlikely.

[Lukewarm]

I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)

Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.

So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.

[Titus]

Math, ngl you're freaking me out. The last time you complained like this, you were scum.

[MathBlade]

Math, ngl you're freaking me out. The last time you complained like this, you were scum.

Then scum read me for it. Hell elim me for it if you have to.

I am telling the truth.

Scum cannot win the setup proposed.

It is literally impossible without town throwing.

[Titus]

Gamma has the more questionable role on the surface. He can only be scum with Chaos though.

Chaos claimed an informed gunsmith but he checked the only player that would come back with a gun, regardless of alignment. Kinda makes me wish I had played suboptimally so we could sort it out for sure.

[Titus]

Math, ngl you're freaking me out. The last time you complained like this, you were scum.

Then scum read me for it. Hell elim me for it if you have to.

I am telling the truth.

Scum cannot win the setup proposed.

It is literally impossible without town throwing.

Alright, suppose scum kill Chaos tonight and Gamma the night after so we get no additional results. How does your calculus change?

[MathBlade]

Math, ngl you're freaking me out. The last time you complained like this, you were scum.

Then scum read me for it. Hell elim me for it if you have to.

I am telling the truth.

Scum cannot win the setup proposed.

It is literally impossible without town throwing.

Alright, suppose scum kill Chaos tonight and Gamma the night after so we get no additional results. How does your calculus change?

Assuming they are town and you are town then Koba and Datisi lock town assuming two town from the PoE is gone.

We are at 10 alive now then 6 alive. Koba and Datisi conf town then you’d be looking at two scum and two POE best case scenario. Scum town no kill. Draw at best. Scum can’t kill there else they get elimmed.

It’s unwinnable for scum.

[Lukewarm]

I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)

Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.

So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.

All "no gun results" are in conclusive, because 2 scum does not have a gun. So a "no gun" basically means nothing.

the 2 "have a gun" result are also inconclusive, because one is town and 1 is scum.

The fact that he managed to find both players in 3 days is actually pretty impressive if true, and I feel like if you run models (which you said you did, ngl, I am not taking the time to do so), most games this ability would actually be pretty useless, or possibly even detrimental if he finds the role cop first.

[Titus]

We're at nine alive.

So that's 5 conftown in that setup.

Miselim 1, nightkill 1
7 alive, 4 conftown
Miselim 2, nightkill 2
5 alive, 3 conftown lylo gg

The biggest problem here is if Chaos is scum.
If we guess wrong here today and he doesn't die, we're forced to eliminate Chaos to verify his information.

[MathBlade]

I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)

Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.

So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.

All "no gun results" are in conclusive, because 2 scum does not have a gun. So a "no gun" basically means nothing.

the 2 "have a gun" result are also inconclusive, because one is town and 1 is scum.

The fact that he managed to find both players in 3 days is actually pretty impressive if true, and I feel like if you run models (which you said you did, ngl, I am not taking the time to do so), most games this ability would actually be pretty useless, or possibly even detrimental if he finds the role cop first.

Cool again assume all town

Chaos checks Gamma votes Gamma. Gamma claims rolecop who checked Umlaut no result. Titus backs up Gamma. You get three conf town

Assume Titus doesn’t block Umlaut lock scum Gamma outs it.

Assume Gamma checks town.

Gamma outs the vanilla ans the vanilla is locktown

No matter how you slice it you get confirms.

[DkKoba]

I find it >rand that scum complain about a setup being townsided because from their pov it looks more bleak when in reality town is usually is always unsure :3

[Lukewarm]

Wait. Are you starting your models now, after the normally almost useless role just happened to muddle out a guilty night 1 AND after the jailkeeper landed a save AND after the scum team apparently chose to no kill?

Because, yeah. All of those things before you start looking at the win chances, should push the win in towns favor.

[Titus]

I believe that no one has claimed a role that would have gun that has not been verified yet at this point (although we still need a NM claim)

Chaos has claimed to have found the single mafia with a gun, and has verified the only town role that would have a gun, his role is now functionally useless. If he is town, then he cannot give us any info on any other slot in the game.

So, I feel like balance wise, it would not actually be all that strong as you seem to think math. He can gets results on 2 out of 13 players, and even both of those give slightly inconclusive results.

All "no gun results" are in conclusive, because 2 scum does not have a gun. So a "no gun" basically means nothing.

the 2 "have a gun" result are also inconclusive, because one is town and 1 is scum.

The fact that he managed to find both players in 3 days is actually pretty impressive if true, and I feel like if you run models (which you said you did, ngl, I am not taking the time to do so), most games this ability would actually be pretty useless, or possibly even detrimental if he finds the role cop first.

How lucky he is is a factor against Chaos being believed though. He happens to find the 1 mafia role that happens to have a gun. He then happens to have set up knowledge that his role is useless after tonight.

The only reason I am entertaining it is because of how gated I am.

[MathBlade]

I find it >rand that scum complain about a setup being townsided because from their pov it looks more bleak when in reality town is usually is always unsure :3

Go through it yourself.

Find a way that there is less than 2 conf towns. I dare you.

Highest is 4 on N1

[Aristeia]

Assuming they are town and you are town then Koba and Datisi lock town assuming two town from the PoE is gone.

We are at 10 alive now then 6 alive. Koba and Datisi conf town then you’d be looking at two scum and two POE best case scenario. Scum town no kill. Draw at best. Scum can’t kill there else they get elimmed.

It’s unwinnable for scum.

I remember a setup that is actually quite similar to this with 2 scum and a traitor vs 2 town investigative roles + loyal jailkeeper + innocent child + 2 town neighbors.


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=84467

the scum did end up winning.

I think the town is probably stronger in that game than this one.

[DkKoba]

tbh i suggest in limlo if titus still alive to lim her if after all is said and done with PoE we dont get a single scum.


i dont care that she gave an extra ML -> in the world where the current PoE doesnt yield a scum, the odds of a titus mech gambit goes way up.


to titus -> you have nothing to fear here if you are town because the reality of the gamestate will not allow this situation to happen with you as town here.

[MathBlade]

Assuming they are town and you are town then Koba and Datisi lock town assuming two town from the PoE is gone.

We are at 10 alive now then 6 alive. Koba and Datisi conf town then you’d be looking at two scum and two POE best case scenario. Scum town no kill. Draw at best. Scum can’t kill there else they get elimmed.

It’s unwinnable for scum.

I remember a setup that is actually quite similar to this with 2 scum and a traitor vs 2 town investigative roles + loyal jailkeeper + innocent child + 2 town neighbors.


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=84467

the scum did end up winning.

I think the town is probably stronger in that game than this one.

Quick skim of that setup doesn’t have the same problems.