mini normal 2226; who won

[MathBlade]

Yeah I buy Gamma+Titus only PRs here.

Informed about 3 people with BTSC chat = 1 PR
Neighbor Traitor vs goon = -1 scum PR

So I think it balances pretty well

[MathBlade]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

Plus informed isn’t even normal unless it’s attached to a PR so the fact there’s open info like that is really more 1.5 vs 1. So…

I buy it.

[ChaosOmega]

And I think you don't know what you're talking about a lot, so *shrug*

[Datisi]

me @ setup specc in this game:

[MathBlade]

I mean mafia doc vs town jailkeeper can’t be the setup as then mafia doc never endgames
So that leaves neighbor scum the only possible end game slot in that scenario and it’s the only slot that can be guiltied by both PRa

So yes literally if you’re town we should be in don’t throw and win territory.

[Datisi]

I mean mafia doc vs town jailkeeper can’t be the setup as then mafia doc never endgames

ftr i stil don't understand why this is a thing.

[Datisi]

why can't the mafia doc endgame? they don't have to actually claim the fact they're a doc, no?

Gamma rolecop and Chaos informed only 1 gun make that impossible though.

can't endgame if there's a guilty on them? isn't this true for like, every scum?

[MathBlade]

I mean mafia doc vs town jailkeeper can’t be the setup as then mafia doc never endgames

ftr i stil don't understand why this is a thing.

Pretend townjailkeeper is silly and claims post 1. Mafia would never claim post one.

Rolecop finding a doc is no longer an innocent it’s a direct guilty.
Meaning that anyone rolecop checks doctor, neighbor, neighbor traitor is a guilty
Making it a de facto alignment cop

So mafia doctor cannot end game because JK + doc way too much protection for a mini normal.

[MathBlade]

why can't the mafia doc endgame? they don't have to actually claim the fact they're a doc, no?

Gamma rolecop and Chaos informed only 1 gun make that impossible though.

can't endgame if there's a guilty on them? isn't this true for like, every scum?

If you assume a traitor both roles have to have the capability of endgaming. If they can’t it becomes unwinnable for scum.

[MathBlade]

So if I go with this you have
Odd night alignment cop
Informed Townie + capable of getting one guilty + informed of entire setup thanks to opener
Loyal Jailkeeper

Vs
Mafia doctor
Neighbor
Neighbor traitor

Not balanced.

[Datisi]

but literally all i'm seeing is "maf doc can't endgame because they return a guilty to the rolecop" when the odds of getting checked by a rolecop are not 100%.

[Not_Mafia]

The point is the town roles synergise way too much against a mafia that is fractured and underpowered

[MathBlade]

but literally all i'm seeing is "maf doc can't endgame because they return a guilty to the rolecop" when the odds of getting checked by a rolecop are not 100%.

Odds of scum getting a guilty on Umlaut or doctor are incredibly high though for N1.

Even not accounting for play. Assume town mis yeet

Then you have 2/10 chance of checking a scum with a guilty for the rolecop
1/10 for gunsmith

Odds of both not happening is 8/10*9/10

So odds of one happening is 1-(72/100) = 38% before posting.

Add in posting influencing you’re looking at a 50% guilty rate on N1

[MathBlade]

Btw the 10 comes from 13 alive at start. Town misyeets down to 12. Can’t check self so 11. I think I messed up and took out traitor by mistake but slightly less but you get the idea.

Gunsmith and rolecop can’t fire same night

[ChaosOmega]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=80157

Just throwing it out there that the person who is running this game ran a game previously with a town doctor and town jailkeeper. This is to say, I don't understand the points Math is making.

[Datisi]

and what if there's another power role in town

pedit: omega, you shouldn't go by mods, you should go by designers. the person modding the game isn't necessarily the one who made it.

[DkKoba]

math has to argue setup spec because they can't win with dayplay atp lol

[MathBlade]

and what if there's another power role in town

pedit: omega, you shouldn't go by mods, you should go by designers. the person modding the game isn't necessarily the one who made it.

If there is another PR in town that’s functionally irrelevant to the calculation.

You’d need some pretty high scum power to stop 25% guilty on N1 before posting.

[ChaosOmega]

Agreed Datisi, this is more arguing the point by Math that there's no way a town doc and JK can be in a mini normal, his setup spec and odds calculations are biased around what he thinks is balanced, and I don't think he has a good handle on it.

[Datisi]

and what if there's another power role in town

pedit: omega, you shouldn't go by mods, you should go by designers. the person modding the game isn't necessarily the one who made it.

If there is another PR in town that’s functionally irrelevant to the calculation.

You’d need some pretty high scum power to stop 25% guilty on N1 before posting.

no, i was asking, how does the math (haha) look like then

say there's another investigative

[MathBlade]

The point is scum are screwed before they even post with the given setup and there is 0% chance I approve this.

If Gamma checks either doctor or neighbor traitor it’s auto loss for the game.

This works for 4 scum not three

[MathBlade]

and what if there's another power role in town

pedit: omega, you shouldn't go by mods, you should go by designers. the person modding the game isn't necessarily the one who made it.

If there is another PR in town that’s functionally irrelevant to the calculation.

You’d need some pretty high scum power to stop 25% guilty on N1 before posting.

no, i was asking, how does the math (haha) look like then

say there's another investigative

Depends on how many scum they can guilty and when they can fire.

[Datisi]

they can fire every night, guilty all scum / get hardclears at first, later on it gets a bit more ambiguous

[MathBlade]

Agreed Datisi, this is more arguing the point by Math that there's no way a town doc and JK can be in a mini normal, his setup spec and odds calculations are biased around what he thinks is balanced, and I don't think he has a good handle on it.

I think I do considering I have been suggested an entire setup.

Let’s look at the strategies scum could take to win:
1) Can’t bus. Foregone conclusion
2) Must fake claim VT without knowing to do so
3) Can’t ever be checked despite setup balance relying on them being checked for innos

This setup 100% does not work

[MathBlade]

they can fire every night, guilty all scum / get hardclears at first, later on it gets a bit more ambiguous

Then n1 you’re looking at
Not 8/11 and
Not 9/11 and
Not 10/11

1 - .54 roughly 45% chance a guilty doesn’t occur before posting