mini normal 2226; who won

[ChaosOmega]

Cool, then keep talking about setup spec and why this isn't balanced for the next 10 pages, should be super productive.

I'll be over here voting Luke trying to actually win the game, and then you can bitch to mastina post-game.

[MathBlade]

So game = 45% auto loss for scum especially with no bus

[MathBlade]

The problem is you get into combinatorics.

Each individual event on its own is unlikely.

Together you have to figure out the odds of not each and subtracting from 1.

So the way to do it is figure out the odds of each PR getting a guilty: say X, Y, and Z.

Then the odds of all those things not happening is 1 - (X*Y*Z).

The more PRs you add the more that number grows.

So now you can run it for yourself Datisi.

[Not_Mafia]

Cool, then keep talking about setup spec and why this isn't balanced for the next 10 pages, should be super productive.

I'll be over here voting Luke trying to actually win the game, and then you can bitch to mastina post-game.

Sounds like someone wants us to avoid questioning the set-up

[MathBlade]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12934461

It’s the main problem with the percentages Mastina has here.

She takes into account each role and how often it individually would itself get one.
But doesn’t take into account the cross PR factor of at least one happening.

[Datisi]

but it looks like it's not auto loss considering the game is still going, so

part of me is wondering if this is something stupid like math/n_m realizing they're getting choked by the poe and the setup and looking for an out where they can.

math, i know some basic math stuff, but i don't think it's helpful here, because i don't know if mastina makes setups with math like that in mind. i feel like i may be completely insane but i want to believe in the power roles.

hnnng i need titus here

we're at... math/n_m or koba/omega or what can even be left anymore i don't know
probably a few teams
luke fits like. almost anywhere i think?

pedit: i do not have the brainpower to read that right now, i'll try later

[MathBlade]

but it looks like it's not auto loss considering the game is still going, so

part of me is wondering if this is something stupid like math/n_m realizing they're getting choked by the poe and the setup and looking for an out where they can.

math, i know some basic math stuff, but i don't think it's helpful here, because i don't know if mastina makes setups with math like that in mind. i feel like i may be completely insane but i want to believe in the power roles.

hnnng i need titus here

we're at... math/n_m or koba/omega or what can even be left anymore i don't know
probably a few teams
luke fits like. almost anywhere i think?

pedit: i do not have the brainpower to read that right now, i'll try later

Yes the game is still going but that doesn’t mean anything.

A game could have everyone be an alignment cop and still be going. << This never gets approved extreme example
A game’s still going status is fundamentally irrelevant.

I don’t believe any other PR could exist especially not one than can guilty three scum N1.

A 45% autoloss rate with no bus is too big.

[ChaosOmega]

Cool, then keep talking about setup spec and why this isn't balanced for the next 10 pages, should be super productive.

I'll be over here voting Luke trying to actually win the game, and then you can bitch to mastina post-game.

Sounds like someone wants us to avoid questioning the set-up

Yep, you caught me, shaking in my boots over here.

You can all do whatever you like, I just have opinions on how useful it is/reading it makes me want to stop reading it and do something more fun like my taxes. To be clear, I'm not talking about setup spec in general, I am specifically referring to all the shit Math is posting.

[Datisi]

I don’t believe any other PR could exist especially not one than can guilty three scum N1.

wouldn't it be really funny if i now claimed pr that can guilty three scum on n1

[MathBlade]

I don’t believe any other PR could exist especially not one than can guilty three scum N1.

wouldn't it be really funny if i now claimed pr that can guilty three scum on n1

It would. It would just make me more sure there’s a scum in Chaos/Gamma/Titus/you since if that is true and the suggested setup is true scum like can’t win lol

[MathBlade]

Take that Garfield game for example

You have 9,9,6,27 percent rounded for sake of simplicity.

The odds of all missing is 1 - (.91 * .91 * .94 * .73) on N1.
56% chance of one of those happening
43% chance of none happening

(All percentages round of round close enough)

There’s a reason it was one of the quickest normals.
Scum were underpowered as many have said.

This is pretty much auto if Datisi is town all PR claimants are true and a PR that can guilty scum.

[Lukewarm]

if you're town why can't you just be wrong and NM forgot to put in his kill order at night?

who do you think would decide to "nokill" to frame cowman?

I think that the titus theory is that the nokill was to actually chaos hoping to get a false inno on himself?

Which has nothing to do with our resident miltank

Yes.

Scum cannot multitask either. So the no kill could come from needing to use their PR.

That suggests Gamma but Gamma can't be scum without Chaos sooo

Did not even think about the multitask thing.

Both chaos and gamma said they would have results today, so if it is 1 scum + 1 traitor at this point, they would have to no kill to get a result

Why are we so sure that this game has a traitor again? I thought it was originally so there was room for a town neighbor, but no one claimed town neighbor, so couldn't there just still be 3 group scum?

[MathBlade]

These percentages also don’t take into account what if town also gets innos too.

Not enough mods do a combinatorics check to see if a setup is viable.

[Datisi]

There’s a reason it was one of the quickest normals.

i thought it was because i caught scum on page 3 and turboyeeted them

however, yes, if i am town, all power role claims are town (titus/gamma/omega), that means koba must be town too due to dual result, remains 4 people, 2 scum and 2 town, and we have 2 town misyeets to spare, so.

[MathBlade]

Take that Garfield game for example

You have 9,9,6,27 percent rounded for sake of simplicity.

The odds of all missing is 1 - (.91 * .91 * .94 * .73) on N1.
56% chance of at least one of those happening
43% chance of none happening

(All percentages round of round close enough)

There’s a reason it was one of the quickest normals.
Scum were underpowered as many have said.

This is pretty much auto if Datisi is town all PR claimants are true and a PR that can guilty scum.

Pedit fix a typo

[DkKoba]

fam im only clear by virtue of a dual check by both PRs lol
its not that strong

[MathBlade]

There’s a reason it was one of the quickest normals.

i thought it was because i caught scum on page 3 and turboyeeted them

however, yes, if i am town, all power role claims are town (titus/gamma/omega), that means koba must be town too due to dual result, remains 4 people, 2 scum and 2 town, and we have 2 town misyeets to spare, so.

I don’t doubt this.
But even if you hadn’t by numbers it would be done super fast

[Datisi]

Both chaos and gamma said they would have results today, so if it is 1 scum + 1 traitor at this point, they would have to no kill to get a result

Why are we so sure that this game has a traitor again? I thought it was originally so there was room for a town neighbor, but no one claimed town neighbor, so couldn't there just still be 3 group scum?

because omega claimed informed of 1 scum gun, and if there's no traitor that must mean there's 2 scum doctors, and nobody other than me is dumb enough to put multiple scum doctors into the same game

i'm not sure either gamma or omega actually no kill to get a result there, since scum!omega would know that town!gamma comes up as having a gun, and scum!gamma would know that town!koba comes up as vt

[MathBlade]

Both chaos and gamma said they would have results today, so if it is 1 scum + 1 traitor at this point, they would have to no kill to get a result

Why are we so sure that this game has a traitor again? I thought it was originally so there was room for a town neighbor, but no one claimed town neighbor, so couldn't there just still be 3 group scum?

because omega claimed informed of 1 scum gun, and if there's no traitor that must mean there's 2 scum doctors, and nobody other than me is dumb enough to put multiple scum doctors into the same game

i'm not sure either gamma or omega actually no kill to get a result there, since scum!omega would know that town!gamma comes up as having a gun, and scum!gamma would know that town!koba comes up as vt

Would he though?
Koba could have been a negative PR role.

[DkKoba]

by virtue of dayplay chaos is hella town but ok lol

also my slot never claimed vt before the result and i claimed pr on replace in

[Datisi]

Spoiler:

If everyone decides Alch is the better pick I can defer your death but you die today or you die tomorrow pretty much

cool, check me then.

granted you probably die if town tonight so if you are alive, there better be a green check with my name on it.

because gamma's role is clearly odd night and he should have a 100% confiremd green or red check.

with the setup info - a role cop is literally an alignment cop.

Vts don't exist because?

scum neighbor shows up as neighbor.

can't hide from rolecop.

because gamma's role is clearly odd night and he should have a 100% confiremd green or red check.

with the setup info - a role cop is literally an alignment cop.

Vts don't exist because?

scum neighbor shows up as neighbor.

can't hide from rolecop.

Right. Vts are a thing. False neighbor.

imma just let you figure out why this is a bad statement.

hint: what does VT show up on for a rolecop report vs what does a neighbor show up as on a rolecop report.

this looked like a vt soft to me but /shrug

in any case, i'm not too worried about gamma being scum, because if gamma is scum that means omega is also scum, and then town power roles are ??? loyal jailkepper ???

[Datisi]

jailkepper >_>

[MathBlade]

Spoiler:

If everyone decides Alch is the better pick I can defer your death but you die today or you die tomorrow pretty much

cool, check me then.

granted you probably die if town tonight so if you are alive, there better be a green check with my name on it.

because gamma's role is clearly odd night and he should have a 100% confiremd green or red check.

with the setup info - a role cop is literally an alignment cop.

Vts don't exist because?

scum neighbor shows up as neighbor.

can't hide from rolecop.

because gamma's role is clearly odd night and he should have a 100% confiremd green or red check.

with the setup info - a role cop is literally an alignment cop.

Vts don't exist because?

scum neighbor shows up as neighbor.

can't hide from rolecop.

Right. Vts are a thing. False neighbor.

imma just let you figure out why this is a bad statement.

hint: what does VT show up on for a rolecop report vs what does a neighbor show up as on a rolecop report.

this looked like a vt soft to me but /shrug

in any case, i'm not too worried about gamma being scum, because if gamma is scum that means omega is also scum, and then town power roles are ??? loyal jailkepper ???

Why does gamma scum = omega scum?

[Datisi]

because omega (1) said there's no scum with guns left and (2) confirmed gamma as having a gun (rolecops have a gun). so if gamma is scum, omega must be too.

[Gamma Emerald]

so where I'm at rn is this:
me and koba are in a spot where we can each only be scum with chaos
this means if we can sort 3 slots as town we can basically reach a point where we elim in the pool of three that weren't sorted as town that aren't chaos/koba/me for the next 2 days, and if neither of those flips scum we flip chaos in 5p limlo (since no matter who his partner is, chaos has to be scum)
atm I feel like my 3 would be titus, datisi, and someone else, who I'm feeling would be nm kinda off his recent play, which seems pretty solid
that leaves a pool of luke, ari, and math