Open 825 - PYP X/Y: HoS_S [game over!]

[Flea The Magician]

Thor thats a scumy af take and fuckin hilarious attempt at lookin busy

[Thor Ragnarok]

Is there a reason you're so quick to discredit the stats?

[Flea The Magician]

Because setups are randomised, and beyond mod control.

You're literally trying to make sense of random data. Last I knew, none of these have been bastard with the mod assigning roles.

[Thor Ragnarok]

Can you give proof of that?

[Flea The Magician]

setup assignments are completely random.
I've had many test setups space the scum out and quite a few group them together.

I can modify my setup tester for you if you want to show it. It'll generate 1000 games worth of stats for you. (I use it to ensure even distribution is met)

[Flea The Magician]

... you genuinely want me to prove the game generation is random and not mod assigned?

Dude... you're higher than me o.o

[Thor Ragnarok]

Well I always figured the mods picked scum arbitrarily from the playerlist but had to avoid using bias to make it fair, but there's still ways to detect subconscious bias which is what I might have seen in Datisi - he spreads his picks out so #2 is due for scum, and scum aren't next to each other very often.

[Flea The Magician]

It is literally random.

It is a requirement when the game is queued that if mod bias affects alignments, it's declared.

There can be no bias when it is a randomly generated setup.

[Flea The Magician]

Spoiler: Code generation from my last game

Code: Select all

 Players drawn and assigned in this order:
>>> mastina > Child of Fairies > Robert M Hunter > Gamma Emerald > Marashu > Roden > Titus > House > Lukewarm > Guillotina > ssbm_Kyouko > T3 > Angel Warriors 
╔════════════════╡Assigned roles╞═══════════════╗
╟──Scum─────────────────────────────────────────╢
║ mastina                           Mystic Goon ║
║ Robert M Hunter                         Yakra ║
║ Guillotina                        Mystic Goon ║
║                                               ║
╟──Town─────────────────────────────────────────╢
║ Child of Fairies                         Frog ║
║ Gamma Emerald                           Lucca ║
║ Marashu                     Knight of Guardia ║
║ Roden                       Knight of Guardia ║
║ Titus                       Knight of Guardia ║
║ House                       Knight of Guardia ║
║ Lukewarm                    Knight of Guardia ║
║ ssbm_Kyouko                 Knight of Guardia ║
║ T3                                      Crono ║
║ Angel Warriors              Knight of Guardia ║
║                                               ║
╟──Third Party──────────────────────────────────╢
╚═══════════════════════════════════════════════╝

I don't think any mod goes as far as I do as to randomise the role assignment list and the player list before picking players and roles at random until both pools are expired, but still. It has to be random.

[Harvey and Haley]

Recent events have raised my interest in alt-hunting Thor.

-Harvey

[Thor Ragnarok]

Well, that sucks

Well it makes sense why but less for me to go off of, thanks for letting me know

[Datisi]

this will be a vote count when i manage to drag myself out of bed and get a coffee

edit: i lied, next vote count is here

[Flea The Magician]

Much love Dats <3 look after yourself ^_^ Seems to be a wave of grotty vibes going around

[Gamma Emerald]

Datisi's last 6 modded games:

The Coalition

implosion
PookyTheMagicalBear

Psyche

Uncle Shelby*
GuiltyLion
Vulture
Art
The Cheek of Gamma (CheekyTeeky + Gamma Emerald)

GrandpaMo gray
StrangeMatter**

Illwei***

sang froid*
Lukewarm
T3
Ydrasse*

Cabd*

The Bulge**

DkKoba
clidd
Infinity 324

Ahsoka

Not_Mafia

Raya36

Lostego volxen*
Gimli son of Glóin

Amélie

Vasex
Battle Mage**
flow trap

floo***

KittyTacky
LoneMarkhor*

skitter30

Ydrasse
team rocket queen*

Iconeum

Andresvmb*
northsidegal*
Something_Smart*
sang froid*
UneveN*

VFP*

Moongrass
Sigmund

T3
clidd
Andante

osuka**
Anya*

Andresvmb***
PookyTheMagicalBear*
Robert M Hunter*
InsidiousLemons
Save The Dragons
VFP

DkKoba*

Asteria

It looks like Datisi likes to spread out scum in the playerlist between games, making all positions covered.
However, position 2 has NEVER rolled scum. This makes it due to be rolled scum, and makes Something_Smart more likely to be scum.

Datisi also doesn't like putting scum next to each other on the playerlist, other than 1 case 6 games ago. This makes it unlikely that scum are next to each other. So if Something_Smart is scum, Flea The Magician and Cat Scratch Fever are less likely to be scum.

Oh dear lord

While this seems genuine that’s actually more worrisome than it being forced because this is seeming to dive into Gambler’s Fallacy

[Gamma Emerald]

Thor thats a scumy af take and fuckin hilarious attempt at lookin busy

I think he believes it actually contributes something

[Flea The Magician]

Yeah we clarified, I reversed what effect that post had on my read.

[Gamma Emerald]

Neat
Also while I kinda jumped at shadows on interpreting what the RQS was doing I think Flea is right that it was pointless filler

[Gamma Emerald]

Literally the only thing I’ve seen come of it was a shitty “gotcha” scumread on me which feels very easy to fake as scum

[Flea The Magician]

Spoiler: Thought I was rid of you.

VOTE: ManateeGal
I like wagons.

-Harvey

GeorgeBailey once told me the world is gonna roll me

GeorgeBailey once told me this:

GeorgeBailey

Bog standard RVS stuffs

Enchant, do you have any particular reason for the Titus vote?

Bee is Vigilante 100%.

Why would you reveal that?

-Harvey

Jumpy much. Why would that even be a reveal? Any particular reason for your vote on Manateegal? Hm? Hmm? HMMM?!

And here's your Page 2 solve, folks.

{Titus}
{PenguinPower}
{Enchant}
{Flea the Magician, Something_Smart, Thor Ragnarok, Cat Scratch Fever}
{Miss Midnight, House, the worst}
{Gamma Emerald, Bee}
{ManateeGal}

-Harvey

Page 2 reads list is not a page 2 solve.

Can i counterask.

Why you asking me about reason of vote on Titus, on damn RVS where everyone vote everyone for sake of that.

Because there is a small amount of extra information on the basis of which you can cast your vote.
For example, PenguinPower's vote.

-Harvey

Kewl, so whats the extra reasoning behind your vote *Raazt!*

Spoiler: Thought it was over wiiiith

Can i counterask.

Why you asking me about reason of vote on Titus, on damn RVS where everyone vote everyone for sake of that.

If you really want to know.

Titus, because she used 999999999999 and somehow still higher than me.
Dirty play.

Interesting tone in post 39 given you did have a more-than-random reason for the vote.

-Harvey

Legit NAI for Enchant, and something tells me you know that.
This is such a fluffly posty

Your list is upside down!

what do you make of me voting manatee then?

Bee's reversed list would put you and ManateeGal towards the top; wouldn't it be more interesting to direct this question towards me?

-Harvey

Dafuq are you even attempting to get here? I'M MR HARVEY LOOK AT ME OOOOEEEEE!!!

imagine getting outdrafted by memers

haley

Amazing entrance.

Titus is probably town for picking 9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

Scum would probably be a little less careless and pick a 2 digit number which was still very unlikely to be picked, but would beat other meme high picks

Like 53, it would've beaten the 69 meme pick

yeah im on this too
high chance of being right near the end

you said it with your eyes

remember when you thought i was giving you the fuck me eyes? we talked about this, ducky.

does harvey have any reads yet?

im sure he does, but his early reads arent worth listening to
(we haven't spoken yet)

the good:
thor has started off townie
pp offering a read while others reveled in nonsense and/or mech
worst seems to poking people in an inquisitive way with his immediate entrance

FOS: Bee, Gamma

extended off topic is the domain of scum
i dont think i read a single bee post that wasnt fluff or fluff adjacent

on the draft, as others, i'm expecting scum utilised their power not to collide in both phases
phase two feels like the cuter way to int

haley

Fosing without sayng why, and a couple cheap reads thrown own.

Spoiler: Thought I was over iiiiiit

im sure he does, but his early reads arent worth listening to
(we haven't spoken yet)

the good:
thor has started off townie
pp offering a read while others reveled in nonsense and/or mech
worst seems to poking people in an inquisitive way with his immediate entrance

FOS: Bee, Gamma

You will find, partner, that none of my reads are worth listening to, not just early game I'm here for the vibez

My page 2 reads list wasn't entirely random. The bits of logic Thor posted have almost all contributed to that.

-Harvey

Actual fluff. Take it to your PT/Discord.

i did think it was kinda funny that gamma gave a s/o to thor's interactions after completely non-interacting with thor and not actually being able to state any opinions on thor's interactions lol, i'm not sure i'd expect gamma to have entered the ~~zone~~ this early in the game though.

... Is Gamma the kind of player you expect would directly engage someone first before making a read though?

He pointed out that Thor's interactions were a highlight before admitting to the scumread, doesn't that indicate some level of organic thought? The way you phrased this makes his actions seem much more aggressive wrt attacking Thor and refusing to engage.

-Harvey

You're trying to work out how other players are reading how other players read instead of just reading yourself.

you know i nearly submitted 69 or 420 but then decided to just stick with 3

So close, I would've locktowned anyone who picked 69 with us

-Harvey

FLOOF

Thor: do you have any content-based reads so far?

-Harvey

Did you?

i am pretty sure gamma doesn't actually scumread thor
where are you getting the idea that I thought Gamma was aggressively avoidant? where are you getting the idea that i think gamma is attacking Thor?

The phrasing of your post? Unless s/o doesn't mean... oh wait, "shout out"

"after completely non-interacting with thor"
"not actually being able to state any opinions"

-Harvey

Quotes are powerful. use them. I believe nothing you say with proof.
Floof.

Spoiler: Thought I evicted you from my heaaaart

@harvey have you read gamma's iso?

Yes.

Why the vote on Manatee, too scared of coming @ us tw? :3

-Harvey

No comment on it tho? also just taunting lol.

first instinct is that your misread of my post is an authentic misread ~60% of the time and trying to look busy like ~40% of the time. i'm just like, really confused by how you actually got there. i'll meditate on it later.

I was referring to your bad vibes on Haley's post though

-Harvey

You're the biggest bad vibes, ngl. Haley is just... not here.

Why did no one pick 1 or 2 if no one else was going for it btw? I went for 11 because it's my favourite number but I would've gone for 1/2 to secure first place had I known

I mean... you don't *know* that no one else is going for it, right? It's reasonable to assume someone's gonna pick it
I'm sure anyone would've picked 1/2 if they knew no one else was going for it

-Harvey

Mech floof.

There's nothing compelling or convincing that I could tell you at this stage. I just got a towny feeling reading her posts up to that point.

Sure. I don't need compelling/convincing anyway, I just wanna look at the thought processes.

Any thoughts on ManateeGal's reaction (or lack of one) to her wagon?

-Harvey Specter

You have a thought process? o.o none I'm seeing here.

Spoiler: KICKED YOU AHHTA MAH MIIIIIEEIIIND!!

do i have anything else of importance to add? also no

Do any of the votes on your wagon look suspicious? Towny? Opportunistic?

-Harvey

No thoughts of your own?
No thoughts. head empty.

I'd sacrifice all of my friends for a day vigilante

Omg yes if only there was a dayvig in the draft picks

-Harvey

FLOOOoooOOOOF!

Who's in the mood for some sweet, sweet RQS?

-Harvey Dent

Bait is bait and honestly this is probably the most AI thing you have, despite it being a NAI reaction test.

Choo choo!!

VOTE: Enchant

-Harvey

No chuggas? baddie.

Oh, and for anyone wondering why i picked 4 (I remember someone askeda general question about picks), it's my favorite low level number and i wasn't concerned about rolling PR because i don't want my possible miselim for low content hurting town.

Feels like this is trying too hard to justify yourself.

I feel like this is fine, but dropping a vote on Manatee without comment on the quickly formed counterwagon is what feels a bit off to me...?

-H

You've been so idly poking and not dedicated you can hardly comment. Also which one of you posted this? posting -H doesn't help.

Spoiler: So nothing left of you...

Except for the fact it wasn't without content, whatevs.

Can you quote that comment, please? I meant specifically about Enchant.

-Harvey

I followed this back. I don't get it. nothin about Enchant in the chain, you're weird.
FLOOOOOOOOF.

Who's in the mood for some sweet, sweet RQS?

-Harvey Dent

On page 12? Calm yourself two-face.

Oh yeah I wanted to reply to that
It’s kinda late for an RQS at this point, ngl I kinda think it might be legitimately scummy

There we go, I was wondering if the mere

mention

of RQS would be attacked as scummy without even actually doing it

@House: I acknowledge your comment on Manatee! My tiny concern was about how there was an Enchant counterwagon that formed just before that, and you made the Manatee vote without mentioning your approval of the Enchant wagon.

-Harvey

And yet, YOU STILL DON'T ACTUALLY GIVE CONTENT.
FLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOFFFY!
You're floofier than Gus' Moustache! THAN LINUS' BEARD!!

Also, House, you were Shortaru right? Remember me by any chance?

-Harvey

Ah yes, the alt hunt begins as a distraction.

Curious comment, considering your clamming-up on the circumstances of Manatee.

Love the alliteration.

@House: Okay.

-Harvey

FLOOOOOF! Can beat aliteration though. I want to make a V alt but I think the verbose verbiage would be vacant if I attempted that visage.

Spoiler: WOULD BE LEFT BEEEEHIIIIIIIND!

Oh, that's not a bad vote. But I think I'd rather go

VOTE: Harvey and Haley

For their early townlean on Thor when Thor wasn't doing anything but setup speccing.

Note that it wasn't simple speculation about the setup.
Thor was making alignment reads based on it - why can't that be considered alignment-indicative?

Harvey (and anyone else), i don't think anything productive will come of rehashing the me/Gamma drama wholesale, but if you have specific questions, I'll be happy to address them.

Uninterested unless it's still ongoing.

-Harvey

I'd need to go over Thor at some point when spoons permit but I don't think Thor was getting alighnment based reads on it.
Also, should be uninterested anyway, that got way outta hand, ngl.

I think we're all buddying each other, and I am living for this energy.

What do you guys think about H&H?

:shrug:
What's on your mind?

tw, I was actually expecting you to soul scumread me by now.

-Harvey

BY LNUS BEARD! THATS A LOTTA LINT!

roughly my fourth or fifth choice atm

Did you not say you had a shitty surface level townread on us before? What caused the demotion to 4th/5th choice of wagon?

What alignment reads did he make, exactly?

The only thing i found didn't match up with his stated reads or votes.

Sure, some examples:
98: 2 likely scum in group of 5
106: Titus town
228: Unlikely scum slots based on statistical pick history

If the response is that anyone can point these out, I'd argue that anyone could post anything - there's nothing specific to these that make them invalid as a basis for forming an early read.
Can you point out the contradiction between his setup-reasoned reads versus votes? That's more interesting to me.

-Harvey

Answered your own question, amazing.
Estimation...
Absolutely NAI if we're honest.
Random distribution proves nothing.

Not sold on the contradictions from positions 2/5/9.

Thor did state it, but likely only as an observation of interest. Draft positions are heavily randomly determined, as opposed to number picks - so I doubt that Thor actually places any stock in that.

But I agree with the next part.

@Thor

, did you have stronger reasoning to vote Gamma than from your earlier likely-containing-scum pools?

-Harvey

Almost like these games are randomly determined by multiple random factors.... and worse still.. the human element.

any particular reason why?

Yes, I made a resolution before joining the game that I'd not hopelessly refresh the page every minute and just appear twice a day for a while. I was expecting you would make a comment on my slot's lack of thread energy.

-Harvey

Thread energy ain't the problem, its the content.
Like I believe that even floof can have content, i'm struggling to see much in yours beyond giving out nothing and looking busy.

Spoiler: OOOOOooooOOOOO!

it felt like you were scum who didn’t feel like you had a good entrance available so you tried to float the RQS boat out

That feels extremely hollow given I had plenty of other content by then (that was my 26th post) and around the same time too...?

-Harvey

... content? where?
Also, it was the 23rd in your ISO, so probably about your 19th overall.

It's easy to conjecture about what numbers scum would pick, but it's not particularly helpful - and their conjectures aren't necessarily accurate. I've seen all 3 scum pick double digit numbers for the express purpose of avoiding number collision, which did end up working out to scum's benefit. This kind of setup spec (or draft spec, specifically) read more like busywork to me. And consequently, giving him a townread in 202 seemed premature.

I'm not arguing about the absolute accuracy of these conjectures, rather how they compare against other tells.

Consider:
"I think X is towny for doing <Y> early in the game!"
"But scum can easily do <Y>"

Any

possible value you can fill for <Y> can be faked by scum and thus not necessarily accurate, especially in early game. That doesn't diminish the value of these reads.
Draft spec is busywork if it leads nowhere, but in his case it had already seemed to set a prior for alignments of certain others.

-Harvey

Sure I got deja vu.
It's almost like the game is randomly generated and there's a human element to it...

Mech Spec here is busywork. it's why I've not touched it.

Has it all been the one head?

I have been signing all my posts -Harvey; are you saying you actually assumed that one RQS post was from the other head?

-Harvey

Given that Haley has hardly been here and there's a post signed -H... can't fault him, honestly.

I suppose you can say that, but it's not like he voted anyone in his scumpool by that point. How could you tell he was going to follow throughm, or if the draft spec reads even meant anything to him?

I don't really expect immediate consistent follow-throughs but I did assume that would factor into his play in a more meaningful manner, hence my question to him earlier on his Gamma vote when House pointed that out. I don't think that was an unreasonable assumption at that point.

-Harvey

You've not followed through on

ANYTHING

.

Kinda
I have literally zero ability to tell you two apart by tags

Our posting styles are also different (evidenced by one of my partner's earlier posts), and my partner also packs more content into single posts. This kind of hasty assumption feels unexpected from you.

-Harvey

Genuinely haven't seen enough from your partner to make solid comparisons. There's some differences in writing style but eh.

Spoiler: But you still take up my space

VOTE: Gamma Emerald

-H

Fho the Wuck was this?

Helay and Haley

-Helay

I'm getting Hedas vibes Still fluff though.

Who's in the mood for some sweet, sweet RQS?

-Harvey Dent

On page 12? Calm yourself two-face.

Oh yeah I wanted to reply to that
It’s kinda late for an RQS at this point, ngl I kinda think it might be legitimately scummy

kewl, my vote stays where it is for now.

I'll bite. Was your "kewl, vote stays" in response to Gamma's suspicion on my post about RQS?

Did you also happen to assume that my "RQS" post was an awkward entrance from another head? If not, why was mentioning it scummy?

-Harvey

More questions and bad assumptions.

Right. And would you be able to describe your dislike of my slot's content?

-Harvey

Taaadaaaaaa!

And speaking of pointless filler - your only stated read this game is a scumread of us because you don't like our content.
Any comments on that?

-Harvey

There's an echo in here...

Spoiler: You just wont go away.

Recent events have raised my interest in alt-hunting Thor.

-Harvey

More floof.

5 posts per spoiler...
to surmise my thoughts on your slot rn...

{Yes I have the cat ears.}

[Miss Midnight]

Just when I didn't think it was possible for my third eye to be opened any further, the last few pages goes and does it.

[Miss Midnight]

the worst also gets a fancy sign of his own since he picks 3 every game, so his high position is less relevant.

Something_Smart also picks 9 every game. It's strange to me that you know that but not this, and also that I knew this but not that; not until someone pointed it out.

[Thor Ragnarok]

I knew, I forgot to mention it because he wasn't as high as the worst

[Thor Ragnarok]

What would be scummy about that, Miss Midnight?

[Datisi]

actually

[Datisi]

how about