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[Kazyan]

And Dwlee wouldn't have claimed had he not latched onto that post. I'm not commenting on your analysis, but about how the mod must be having a good guffaw about this played out.

[Nathann]

Then why is Dwlee backup watcher?

This mod is notorious for putting in red herrings that do nothing and serve no purpose. I'm not clearing anyone for claiming non-confirmable things. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a Mafia Backup Watcher with no Watchers in the game. (I don't think Dwlee is Scum, but as illustration.)

[Nathann]

Oh, there was also that other time I hit E-2 near the end of Day 1, which was when DGB switched from their vanity self-vote to a vote on me. No one switched to me thereafter, despite the time pressure giving everyone an excellent alibi. I'd buy that one scum was on the Alice wagon (or gera sitting out?), but two would have been very unlikely, so that's a bunch of +town for everyone on the Alice wagon and the opposite for everyone on the Kazyan wagon at that time.

Explain like I'm 5, why is voting Alice +Town? Or rather, why would you have expected Scum on you? Because of the soft, or?

[Kazyan]

Oh, there was also that other time I hit E-2 near the end of Day 1, which was when DGB switched from their vanity self-vote to a vote on me. No one switched to me thereafter, despite the time pressure giving everyone an excellent alibi. I'd buy that one scum was on the Alice wagon (or gera sitting out?), but two would have been very unlikely, so that's a bunch of +town for everyone on the Alice wagon and the opposite for everyone on the Kazyan wagon at that time.

Explain like I'm 5, why is voting Alice +Town? Or rather, why would you have expected Scum on you? Because of the soft, or?

Let's say you're scum, and you're on the Alice wagon. The town is in a deadlock, with 6 votes on Alice, 5 votes on Kazyan, and both Alice and gera are sitting out. It's less than 24 hours before deadline. We're all starting to worry about trusting gera with the hammer vote. Word on the street is that Kazyan has a role. What do you do? Sit where you are? Heck, maybe, but I wouldn't trust

both

scum to hang tight.

This means that the likely possibilities are 1 scum on Alice : 1 scum on Kazyan,

or

0 scum on Alice : 2 scum on Kazyan, mumble mumble your preferred style of asterisk here because of gera. So if you're on the Alice wagon at that time, you're in the "statistically lowered scum concentration" zone.

[Nathann]

if i was betting, this would be where i would be looking, but it is pretty circumstantial....

Actually, what was the point of this? You obviously thought I was Scummy, if there a reason you seem afraid of voting me?

[Dwlee99]

If GMO is town I expect scum in the intersection of not believing me or GMO. If there was a lack of ninjas I would expect scum to know that the claim was BS and could have pushed it not NK'd on that. For the same reason, they probably would have doubted me being a backup watcher. On the other hand, if GMO is scum then the other scum could have reacted either way to the claim. Either way looking at people who believed but only sort of and were open to voting GMO is probably good because it would explain the lack of night kill there.

[Kazyan]

Like, heck, you could vote me without even having to swing the hammer in that circumstance and just let Alice do the honors whenever she shows up, and then yell at her on Day 2 for hammering the poor poor townie and get her yeeted as well. It's kind of perfect.

[Nathann]

It's less than 24 hours before deadline. We're all starting to worry about trusting gera with the hammer vote. Word on the street is that Kazyan has a role. What do you do? Sit where you are? Heck, maybe, but I wouldn't trust both scum to hang tight.

I was going to speculate about what Scum!me would do, then I thought how I definitely wouldn't do what I had done, which is awkwardly back off Kazyan because hurr durr power role soft. Which doesn't help me much, but

then

I realized Dwlee did pretty much the same thing, so. Probably somewhat +Town for them?

[Nathann]

My brain is currently swinging between "Kyouko thought Kazyan was scum, and she's

dead

" and "they are being so Townie though". What other major reads did she have? I skimmed the last portion of her ISO, all I saw was Titus hate, and we know how that turned out.

[Kazyan]

Near the end of day 1, Kyo ends up here, and it's consistent:

Prefer to vote any of the other 4, in this order:
Kazyan (scummiest imo)

AliceK

/DGB (not towny)

Titus

(more proficient as town than AliceK/DGB, but also not towny)

I'm between Kazyan,

AliceK

/DGB,

Titus

, in that order today.

Kyo didn't change her mind on any of these scumreads on Day 2. I'm pretty set on DGB here, but I get why you're still sorting me.

[Dwlee99]

I think Kazyan seems townie but I'm bothered that I thought he was a watcher from the soft and that he retracted that. If there is a scum watcher it would most certainly be him, but then we are getting into out guessing the mod at that point.

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: DGB
If this is scum I think based on wagons it soft clears Kazyan and Enchant

[Nathann]

Y-2. I don't want any more "accidents".

[Nathann]

Wait, I'm stupid. I was thinking of voting DGB, and then I ended up not doing it, while thinking I did.

VOTE: DGB

That

is Y-2.

[geraintm]

if i was betting, this would be where i would be looking, but it is pretty circumstantial....

Actually, what was the point of this? You obviously thought I was Scummy, if there a reason you seem afraid of voting me?

Because I did what I do when I have no extra info , look at voting patterns, but I didn't get any strong pings.
And I trust my judgement hardly at all, so I'm not going to lead anywhere. Much more likely today to follow when others make good cases.
I just threw out my quick initial thoughts for others to see

[Ythan]

Hi friends.

[Dwlee99]

Hi friends.

Do you have opinions

[Ythan]

Hi friends.

Do you have opinions

Mafia is hard.

But for real I guess I'm gonna take a look at Gramps and then go from there.

[Dwlee99]

You didn't believe gramps yesterday right? Do you think the fake claim to get night killed was townie or is he just trying to play off the claim in a way to avoid more suspicion?

[Ythan]

Ihdk. I have insights into Gramps claims I can't get into currently. I need to read.

[Dwlee99]

Okay take your time ig

[Not Known 15]

Vote Count 3.1

Not Voting(6)geraintm;Ythan;Andresvmb;DrippingGoofball;GrandpaMo;Titus;Enchant;

DrippingGoofball (3)Kazyan;Dwlee99;Nathann;

Kazyan (0)

Dwlee99 (0)

Enchant

MargotRosa

(0)

GrandpaMo (0)

Andresvmb (0)

Ythan

JacksonVirgo

(0)

geraintm (0)

No Elimination (0)

Nathann (0)

With 9 alive it is 5 to execute.

Day 2 will end in (expired on 2021-09-08 04:33:00) or when an elimination has been achieved.

Please avoid the L-word.

[geraintm]

I have no reason to doubt that claim, and will be believing it for the rest of the game. My focus will be elsewhere.nlw

think this might have been missed by people, but i said yesterday i had no reason not to beleive the claim

[Ythan]

and will be believing it for the rest of the game.

This bit seems like a weird thing to tack on but I'm still not really sure how to interpret it.

[Andresvmb]

We’re not executing DGB.