3d20 – The Great Board Game War [GAME OVER]

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait does survivor win if they're alive in endgame, regardless of whether town or scum wins? I was thinking they only won with town

[Marashu]

Survivor wins in endgame whether or not town wins.

[Gamma Emerald]

I thought survivor just had to live, they would want to kill scum or they get endgamed

No matter who wins, if Survivor lives to endgame they win
As such if 2 or more teamed groupscum reach ELo Survivor is likely to side with who they think scum is in that scenario, as that ends the game while townsiding means they have to live another day, plus if they’re outed scum have more ability to punish them for not siding with them

[Marashu]

Just did a little list. FMPOV game feels POEd. I think Dragon/Nero/Gamma should end it. Would like full claims from all 3, will start with

VOTE: Dragon

Because killing James confirms your roll was true and is motivation for scum!you to kill him

My PoE right now is basically Nero/Gamma/{Thor/Dragon} in about that order.

Because either the 2 kills came from town!RMH or rampaging factional kill made 3 kills

Or 2 scum factions doubled up on a kill. For the record, I'm inclined to believe that there's only mafia remaining.

[Gamma Emerald]

Wait does survivor win if they're alive in endgame, regardless of whether town or scum wins? I was thinking they only won with town

[Robert M Hunter]

Why are you sorting as if there’s just mafia

There's just mafia now. The other two kills are of my vigging.

[Dwlee99]

Is Thor really the PGO

[Gamma Emerald]

Why are you sorting as if there’s just mafia

There's just mafia now. The other two kills are of my vigging.

Do you not think a double kill could have happened?

[Robert M Hunter]

Do you not think a double kill could have happened?

Definitely I did a double vig, so my answer to this question is a resounding "yes."

[Robert M Hunter]

Is Thor really the PGO

Cyrus62

- [7, 7, 1] Town Paranoid Gun Owner with no modification - 72

This role was rolled by scum, so it goes without saying that it's very likely that cyrus would lie about the dice roll so that his scummy friend Thor could claim PGO and be immune from being targeted.

I had a big old scum read yesterday on Thor, so it makes sense to me that they are scum together.

[Robert M Hunter]

Did that post make sense?

[Marashu]

Is Thor really the PGO

Cyrus62

- [7, 7, 1] Town Paranoid Gun Owner with no modification - 72

This role was rolled by scum, so it goes without saying that it's very likely that cyrus would lie about the dice roll so that his scummy friend Thor could claim PGO and be immune from being targeted.

I had a big old scum read yesterday on Thor, so it makes sense to me that they are scum together.

I've been thinking about this a lot. Like, the way that cyrus outed his roll - he was being vague about his roll because at the start of the day he wanted rolls to be hidden. He only came out with his roll after James caught the crumb, at which point he talked about the crumb quite a bit. But my thought at the time was that he only went along with it because James provided it to him. He was suddenly keen on outing it because of what the wiki said on recommended play, but if he had rolled it I think he would have known ahead of time. In 439 he was getting weirdly defensive about how he wasn't lying, and whenever anyone brought it up, he would shoot the thought down right away.

Meanwhile, Thor's entrance was just that he was confused - no context. He didn't really start posting until after cyrus claimed his roll, and by that point he already had a potential fake claim ready. Their biggest interaction was that story reading interaction, though I did flag 295 as standing out as strange. That whole exchange was strange, though, in that it didn't really go anywhere. And if he was confused scum, that gave plenty of time for coaching.

So yeah, I really don't want to clear Thor yet. He's still lingering in my PoE because of this.

[Marashu]

Did that post make sense?

Yes

[Nero Cain]

Y AM I IN YOUR POE?

[redtea]

Because either the 2 kills came from town!RMH or

rampaging factional kill made 3 kills

can someone eli5 why someone's rampaging ability being able to be applied to the factional kill sounds reasonable

Why are you sorting as if there’s just mafia

how would you go about it? With one faction down, and no way to know if there's 3p or another faction until tomorrow, *maybe*?

I feel like Cyrus doesnt lie about rolling PGO though even if he is scum. Hmm :/

he would if a partner told him to.
i don't have brain-space for all the claims and how they were made right now, but something about all this tells me robert and thor are probably not aligned (edit this way my thought at the time, have since gathered more info and may change. Wanted to leave it in as a note though).

[redtea]

anyway
look forward to the fruits of my efforts, starting with this post.
I incidentally did some more reading/meta in general, in my hunt for associatives.

dwlee

I'm almost certain dwlee is town. dwlee in a recent scum game w/ cyrus vs dwlee in a recent town game is like night and day, and I can't see dwlee mimicking his town play to a t like that without more practice.

cyrus

One thing cyrus was honest about is that he does switch up his play. While his town and scum games look different, it was difficult for me to find the common threads between his scum games. I'm sure there's more to gleam, but this is all I could invest my brain in.
1) he will sr one or both partners, often from near the beginning. If one of them is close to being elimmed, will jump on the wagon quick. He will also offer himself up as a lim if there's seemingly no recovery for him. A big bussing guy, both ways.
2) he doesn't seem to hardly interact directly with his partners. If he does a lot of back and forth with someone, they are guaranteed not partners (in his games so far). Another town point for dwlee.
3) will follow others' ideas when it comes to fakeclaiming and more mech-y stuff. Will both offer and follow strategies.

robert m, marashu

I read both of them, and the one thing i know for absolute certain is I don't know how to read either of them.

it doesn't end there, but I have to consolidate and think some more

side note: I'm going to back off of gamma for now. Did a tiny bit of meta. When I put more of my thoughts together I may find more scum indicators here, but I'm coming out of the tunnel on him.

[Gamma Emerald]

how would you go about it? With one faction down, and no way to know if there's 3p or another faction until tomorrow, *maybe*?

I honestly think playing around the starting numbers would be the best choice
We have 60% town to start, which by my math is 8/13 players. We’ve had 2 scum flips, meaning at most 3 scum can still be alive. As such I don’t really have a strong objection to the PoE except for not entirely getting why the people who are in it are there

[redtea]

how would you go about it? With one faction down, and no way to know if there's 3p or another faction until tomorrow, *maybe*?

I honestly think playing around the starting numbers would be the best choice
We have 60% town to start, which by my math is 8/13 players. We’ve had 2 scum flips, meaning at most 3 scum can still be alive. As such I don’t really have a strong objection to the PoE except for not entirely getting why the people who are in it are there

okay, so you're just saying "don't out the possibility?" of another faction/3rd party? but focusing on the mafia is fine since 2 of the 3 possible scum are likely cyrus's partners?
sorry if i'm extrapolating wrong

[redtea]

some relevant info:

Here's the amount of direct interactions cyrus has had with each player/slot. Cyrus seems to mostly quote people when he's talking to them, even in quick-fire back and forth, so those direct, non-encapsulated quotes are most of what I counted. There were a couple of written out '@'s I happened to catch, but I did not go out of my way to look for them, and they are few and far between. So while the count is imperfect, it should not be far off from the true count. As I used the same method of looking for interactions when meta-ing, I think this method is reliable enough. In nature it's only fit to show a big picture, rather than split hairs over, anyway.

Mega/Gamma is kept separate for obvious reasons (highlighted blue to stand out), but I thought I'd include them in the count anyway.

Most
:

T3

- 29
: Dwlee99 - 27
:

JamestheNames

- 24
: ssbm_kyouko - 14
: Marashu - 14
: Thor - 11
: SirCakez - 10
: Dragon - 10
: redtea - 7
: Nero Cain - 6
: Robert - 4
Least

Mega/Gamma - 5

Here's Cyrus's scumreads at various points, of who are still alive. I only just added myself to this, lmk if I missed something there.

ssbm_kyouko, from #45, carries through #1228
dwlee from #603, includes them in his poe, carries more or less through #1310
nero cain from #242, carries through #1296
dragon from #1144, carries through #1425
rmh from #352, carries through #1150
thor as scum lean from #460, later includes thor in his poe, through #1309

meg/gamma from #1138, seemingly gone by #1307

me (redtea) implied in #845, through #1096

so from earliest read to latest, along with their first post
: ssbm_kyouko #45, first post #25
: nero cain #242, first post #215
: rmh #352, first post #206
: thor #460, first post #8, but I'll note that he disappears until #167
: dwlee #603, first post #13
: me (redtea) #845, first post #171

: meg/gamma #1138 (replaced slot), first post #57/#913

: dragon #1144, first post #16

sorted by number of posts between their first and being scum read/leaned by cyrus
: ssbm_kyouko - 20
: nero cain - 27
: rmh - 146

: gamma - 225

: thor - 293 (if

not

counting his very first post)
: thor - 452 (if counting his very first post)
: dwlee - 590
: me (redtea) - 674

: meg - 1081

: dragon - 1128

[redtea]

wait how is that order exactly the same except for gamma

...is this how cyrus picks his scumreads????? and I crazy, am I doing something wrong?

[redtea]

wait no scratch that that doesn't make sense
maybe it has to do with the pace of the game or something

[Gamma Emerald]

how would you go about it? With one faction down, and no way to know if there's 3p or another faction until tomorrow, *maybe*?

I honestly think playing around the starting numbers would be the best choice
We have 60% town to start, which by my math is 8/13 players. We’ve had 2 scum flips, meaning at most 3 scum can still be alive. As such I don’t really have a strong objection to the PoE except for not entirely getting why the people who are in it are there

okay, so you're just saying "don't out the possibility?" of another faction/3rd party? but focusing on the mafia is fine since 2 of the 3 possible scum are likely cyrus's partners?
sorry if i'm extrapolating wrong

Yeah ig
It’s either that or 8:2:2:1 assuming the maximum 5 scum

[Gamma Emerald]

some relevant info:

Here's the amount of direct interactions cyrus has had with each player/slot. Cyrus seems to mostly quote people when he's talking to them, even in quick-fire back and forth, so those direct, non-encapsulated quotes are most of what I counted. There were a couple of written out '@'s I happened to catch, but I did not go out of my way to look for them, and they are few and far between. So while the count is imperfect, it should not be far off from the true count. As I used the same method of looking for interactions when meta-ing, I think this method is reliable enough. In nature it's only fit to show a big picture, rather than split hairs over, anyway.

Mega/Gamma is kept separate for obvious reasons (highlighted blue to stand out), but I thought I'd include them in the count anyway.

Most
:

T3

- 29
: Dwlee99 - 27
:

JamestheNames

- 24
: ssbm_kyouko - 14
: Marashu - 14
: Thor - 11
: SirCakez - 10
: Dragon - 10
: redtea - 7
: Nero Cain - 6
: Robert - 4
Least

Mega/Gamma - 5

Here's Cyrus's scumreads at various points, of who are still alive. I only just added myself to this, lmk if I missed something there.

ssbm_kyouko, from #45, carries through #1228
dwlee from #603, includes them in his poe, carries more or less through #1310
nero cain from #242, carries through #1296
dragon from #1144, carries through #1425
rmh from #352, carries through #1150
thor as scum lean from #460, later includes thor in his poe, through #1309

meg/gamma from #1138, seemingly gone by #1307

me (redtea) implied in #845, through #1096

so from earliest read to latest, along with their first post
: ssbm_kyouko #45, first post #25
: nero cain #242, first post #215
: rmh #352, first post #206
: thor #460, first post #8, but I'll note that he disappears until #167
: dwlee #603, first post #13
: me (redtea) #845, first post #171

: meg/gamma #1138 (replaced slot), first post #57/#913

: dragon #1144, first post #16

sorted by number of posts between their first and being scum read/leaned by cyrus
: ssbm_kyouko - 20
: nero cain - 27
: rmh - 146

: gamma - 225

: thor - 293 (if

not

counting his very first post)
: thor - 452 (if counting his very first post)
: dwlee - 590
: me (redtea) - 674

: meg - 1081

: dragon - 1128

wait how is that order exactly the same except for gamma

...is this how cyrus picks his scumreads????? and I crazy, am I doing something wrong?

I don’t feel so good 0_0

[redtea]

yeah okay i'm psyching myself out over nothing
ANYWAY

what all that means is that we can eliminate between {nero, rmh, ssbm_kyouko} pretty safely in my opinion. Yes, I'm serious about kyouko.

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t really get why so many people suspect Nero apart from maybe him being low impact based on what I’ve seen, and that can be VERY hit-or-miss as a method of reading him