Newbie 2078 - Game Over

[Dorsey]

What's your read of UhUhWaitAndSee?

[Dorsey]

And are you willing to go there today since you skipped over them for kennyk for whatever reason yesterday?

[Micc]

GrandpaMo is V/LA until 9/27.

Votecount 2.01

Not Voting (8) -

Dorsey, UhUhWaitAndSee, kennyk, Greeting, AlwaysNever, GrandpaMo, Titus, RCEnigma

With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2021-09-29 23:55:00).

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

That's.... weird. Was that nokill deliberate?

Lol you look like you fucked up in mafiachat and came to the thread to explain ur grief.

fwiw, mafia never no kills night 1

it gives them no advantage on doing so -- the only time it would be valid is only if they are setting up a later claim or future claim but still that is very high risk play low reward hence why mafia never goes for that play and rather no kill in later days.

That's a fair assumption
But yeah it is weird, I just want to point that out

Either way, we don't have anything to go on now, so it's like we're back at D1 again like RCE said lmao

Btw RCE, you said you have some eod things you want to discuss post flip, so is that still a thing or?

Weird comment, clearly we have more info than D1 re PRs.

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

Or a very lucky Doctor that saved someone? That'd be nuts

Technical possibilities are no kill, doctor or jailkeeper.

But mafia no kill is surely very rare.

This must have been an act by a Jailkeeper. Good news for us, but the downside is that we get less reads. Thanks, whomever you are.

Nonetheless, TL/HockeyFan flipping town is disappointing, but their death may give us something to work on.

If you are going to say there is a JK, why didn't you just say that you received the friendly neighbor message at the time?

[kennyk]

Do you feel like a slot repeatedly replacing out in a newbie means it's scum?

My feeling would be the just the other way round. Isn't it way more interesting to try and trick someone in believing you are innocent than to fish in muddy waters? My personal favorite is being scum, than town PR and last is VT. But that is just my view on the game in general. Either way it means nothing in my eyes.

Who knows why some people leave after a few posts, especially in newbie games? Maybe the game in general is not as they expected and they just leave for new horizons.

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

Dew/kennyk - Why didn't you confirm until you realized you hadn't been killed? Also, your catch-up looks more like busywork to build post count than actual game assessment. Regarding Post 448, Post 219 didn't come out of nowhere, as expressed in Post 223 - UhUhWaitAndSee's ISO was lackluster. You did the same thing in Post 468, posting half of an old argument without addressing my rebuttal - I'd already expressed my dissatisfaction with Greeting prior to that Post 286, as can be seen in Post 290.

Greeting - I like the way you tried to soft Titus's claim.

UhUh - AlwaysNever highlighted in Post 391 that almost half of UhUhWaitAndSee's posts are responses to me - I feel this is because he's scum and therefore has been allowed to active lurk with no scrutiny. Even today, his go-to is to post a blurb about game mechanics as opposed to opinions of player slots.

RCE - Why didn't RCE start today with his 'eod postflip' stuff instead of that naked vote? Also, he's lying - I didn't vote HockeyFan over a "pocketing" attempt, I voted him because his wagon had more interaction and accountable history than kennyk's. I also voted it because he jumped over several applicable candidates for elim (my elim pool) to just vote another lurker. I also never said Hockey was town - I said I'd prefer to elim Greeting over Hockey, which was true, but the wagon wasn't on Greeting. (This is why I say just because RCE posts regularly doesn't make him town.)

Titus - Can't be scum unless Greeting is also scum. (Is it coincidence that RCE and GrandpaMo didn't want to kill her? I'm assuming people are friends IRL or something?)

Grandpa - What was the good reason you cited in Post 403 for never voting Titus Day 1?

Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?

Still think scum is in here [UhUhWaitAndSee/RCEnigma/Titus]. If it's not Titus, then it's still one of the other two.

?? Game mechanics are important and even more so in the current situation. I was pointing out something to address something one of AlwaysNever's posts were missing.

[kennyk]

dont vote titus. never vote titus day 1. i have a good reason for it to. believe me

I think I know what you mean by this. I have a post saved with my reason, but wanted to read the whole thread first before posting it (if I feel like posting it at all).

[kennyk]

Disagree dew is a bad day 1 vote and kennyk repping in and letting the deadline run down is fairly indicative. Convince me dew can't be partnered with either greeting or TL and I'll reconsider.

I guess I owe everyone an excuse there. I applied for the Dew-spot on friday morning (my time zone). Before I got the role PM the router in our house crashed big time. We needed a new one, whoch we ordered. But it wasn't delivered on saturday (as advertised). We called our provider again and now they told us we needed to confirm our order via e-mail. And as it was an e-mail-account we only used on the now internetless PC no one in our household thought about checking that account (and it wouldn't have helped either, with no connection to the www).
Long story short: It took more than three days to connect us to the outside digital world again. Thankfully Micc let me in this game again despite this sh*t happening.

[AlwaysNever]

That's.... weird. Was that nokill deliberate?

Lol you look like you fucked up in mafiachat and came to the thread to explain ur grief.

fwiw, mafia never no kills night 1

it gives them no advantage on doing so -- the only time it would be valid is only if they are setting up a later claim or future claim but still that is very high risk play low reward hence why mafia never goes for that play and rather no kill in later days.

That's a fair assumption
But yeah it is weird, I just want to point that out

Either way, we don't have anything to go on now, so it's like we're back at D1 again like RCE said lmao

Btw RCE, you said you have some eod things you want to discuss post flip, so is that still a thing or?

Weird comment, clearly we have more info than D1 re PRs.

just gonna stop writing my post and clarify this first to say that those posts are made before titus-greeting PR reveal, so I wasn't aware of them yet

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

I can't post for much longer - but quick addresses.

GrandpaMo - would like to see more engagement with the game i.e understanding what is going on.

AlwaysNever - but still, especially because no deaths n1, town will in all likelihood have things to go off on once d2 gets rolling.

[GrandpaMo]

Titus could have been more nuanced about it but I think she wanted direct confirmation. Greeting could have definitely been the JK Target making them the vanilla scum. I feel that's what she was getting towards at least.

I don't know why you were so quick to assume that could have been jk >> I feel like you could be scum for pressuring a slot to out -- ur justification is still not completely justified due to confbias.

I'm a friendly neighbor.

There was no nightkill.

The only protective with a friendly neighbor is a jailkeeper.

ok thanks for making me understand better lol , I knew u were pr yesterday

Dew/kennyk - Why didn't you confirm until you realized you hadn't been killed? Also, your catch-up looks more like busywork to build post count than actual game assessment. Regarding Post 448, Post 219 didn't come out of nowhere, as expressed in Post 223 - UhUhWaitAndSee's ISO was lackluster. You did the same thing in Post 468, posting half of an old argument without addressing my rebuttal - I'd already expressed my dissatisfaction with Greeting prior to that Post 286, as can be seen in Post 290.

Greeting - I like the way you tried to soft Titus's claim.

UhUh - AlwaysNever highlighted in Post 391 that almost half of UhUhWaitAndSee's posts are responses to me - I feel this is because he's scum and therefore has been allowed to active lurk with no scrutiny. Even today, his go-to is to post a blurb about game mechanics as opposed to opinions of player slots.

RCE - Why didn't RCE start today with his 'eod postflip' stuff instead of that naked vote? Also, he's lying - I didn't vote HockeyFan over a "pocketing" attempt, I voted him because his wagon had more interaction and accountable history than kennyk's. I also voted it because he jumped over several applicable candidates for elim (my elim pool) to just vote another lurker. I also never said Hockey was town - I said I'd prefer to elim Greeting over Hockey, which was true, but the wagon wasn't on Greeting. (This is why I say just because RCE posts regularly doesn't make him town.)

Titus - Can't be scum unless Greeting is also scum. (Is it coincidence that RCE and GrandpaMo didn't want to kill her? I'm assuming people are friends IRL or something?)

Grandpa - What was the good reason you cited in Post 403 for never voting Titus Day 1?

Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?

Still think scum is in here [UhUhWaitAndSee/RCEnigma/Titus]. If it's not Titus, then it's still one of the other two.

I wasn't gonna vote Titus day 1 because I thought they were pr lol

[GrandpaMo]

Still think scum is in here [UhUhWaitAndSee/RCEnigma/Titus]. If it's not Titus, then it's still one of the other two.

this is honestly a bad readlist lol.

I'm sorry but you have to first understand Titus is now confirmed.

then you are left with RC and UhWait


imo those 2 are never paired. if you are indiduvually scumreading them then it makes more sense.

but fypov rc should be town since he wasn't on that wagon yesterday and wanted to deflect of to someone who could have been paired with huh

[kennyk]

Or a very lucky Doctor that saved someone? That'd be nuts

Technical possibilities are no kill, doctor or jailkeeper.

But mafia no kill is surely very rare.

I think the (theoretical) probabilities are
jailkeeper > doctor > no kill > scum roleblocked other scum

As there are three setups with a JK and the JK has the chance to either jail the killing scum or the target it is more likely than the two setups with a lucky doctor. As no one claimed a town PR day 1.1 I don't see why scum would not try to nightkill. And the highly unlikely scenario where a scum roleblocker blocks his own teammate only makes sence if scum knows there is a tracker, which they don't.

[GrandpaMo]

I can't post for much longer - but quick addresses.

GrandpaMo - would like to see more engagement with the game i.e understanding what is going on.

AlwaysNever - but still, especially because no deaths n1, town will in all likelihood have things to go off on once d2 gets rolling.

I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.

u contradict here bud. choose a side.

you first say that I'm doing a "play"? and continue to read based on that and never secure that read until u bring meta up then continue to read me null due to conspicuous read that I haven't been engaged in the game.

[AlwaysNever]

Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?

I've said it before in post 138. I still think the same. Because I know that these thoughts are colored by my own biases, I took the liberty of reading your previous game (2075) and of course I see that you are the same there.

If anything, most of your play have been individualistic, or at least against the flow of the game at that point, but does that make you scum? No.... maybe? On 2075, you did the same thing, going against the flow, but you correctly read who's scum, while still keeping the same tone. It makes me uneasy, cause then what would've happened if you are scum?

This uneasiness is why I said it's getting hard to excuse your play, cause considering you as town goes against my instinct, but I have to anyway, and this conflicting feeling grows ever more as the game progress. So each time you act just slightly scummy in my eyes, I would put you in my to-vote list/scumlean, even though logically you are about as town as me at this point

Basically, when it comes to you, my reads goes like this and it makes me uneasy


TL;DR I can't see you as town cause I got issues and I need to get over it

[GrandpaMo]

Or a very lucky Doctor that saved someone? That'd be nuts

Technical possibilities are no kill, doctor or jailkeeper.

But mafia no kill is surely very rare.

I think the (theoretical) probabilities are
jailkeeper > doctor > no kill > scum roleblocked other scum

As there are three setups with a JK and the JK has the chance to either jail the killing scum or the target it is more likely than the two setups with a lucky doctor. As no one claimed a town PR day 1.1 I don't see why scum would not try to nightkill. And the highly unlikely scenario where a scum roleblocker blocks his own teammate only makes sence if scum knows there is a tracker, which they don't.

can we stop?

mafia doesn't role block scum
mafia doesn't no kill day 1.

titus putting as fn makes it likely its jk / doc.

all this extra talk about scum not killing / other impossible scenarios are just all filler that makes it seem like scum is tryna be productive when in reality its not and only just makes u look worse trying to talk about scenarios that would never happen.

[AlwaysNever]

a brownie point for you, keeping my one eye on you still

I'll keep one eye on you at all times

If they weren't specifically tracker softs I wouldn't necessarily press the issue. I think if the JK was on Always then it's worth outing since it would be a psuedo red check. If not then don't.

As of right now I think if Dorsey flips red always is town. Walking home right now so once I get some time I'll give more thought to that.

nah yeah it was coincidence, thank you for giving me ideas to soft Tracker next time I got one though. fwiw, wasn't jailed, otherwise I would probably not post like what Uhuh pointed out since then I would know the setup at that point

as I said on my previous post, I am half tempted to agree with your last sentence, but again that nagging logic part of me still think it's T/T in context of me/dorsey

I can't post for much longer - but quick addresses.

GrandpaMo - would like to see more engagement with the game i.e understanding what is going on.

AlwaysNever - but still, especially because no deaths n1, town will in all likelihood have things to go off on once d2 gets rolling.

I guess you can chalk it up to me being inexperienced? when there's no kill in the night my first instinct is that there's no info that we get since we only have HF flip at that moment

I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.

Is this a post to answer Dorsey??? Just wanna make sure cause you never explicitly refer to them

[kennyk]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

[GrandpaMo]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

wtf is this now.. you are bringing up this possibility. there is no way u are vt.

VOTE: Kennyk

I literally just said stop making hypothetical situations that is very uncommon. and now you come up with the craziest fucking idea sob

[kennyk]

Dew/kennyk - Why didn't you confirm until you realized you hadn't been killed? Also, your catch-up looks more like busywork to build post count than actual game assessment. Regarding Post 448, Post 219 didn't come out of nowhere, as expressed in Post 223 - UhUhWaitAndSee's ISO was lackluster. You did the same thing in Post 468, posting half of an old argument without addressing my rebuttal - I'd already expressed my dissatisfaction with Greeting prior to that Post 286, as can be seen in Post 290.

I guess I explained my reasons for not confirming earlier (= between your post 470 and this right now).

Yes, my posts look like I only saw half the argument. But that is because of the was I do the catch-up. I started at post 0 and read the thread post by post. Whenever there was something I thought that needed a reply, I replied to. Most times I didn't scan the thread for rebuttals as to not forget what I wanted to say. I am sorry if y<ou had the impression I wanted to attack you with those old stories, but they were not fully discussed at the quoted posts.

[kennyk]

Or a very lucky Doctor that saved someone? That'd be nuts

Technical possibilities are no kill, doctor or jailkeeper.

But mafia no kill is surely very rare.

I think the (theoretical) probabilities are
jailkeeper > doctor > no kill > scum roleblocked other scum

As there are three setups with a JK and the JK has the chance to either jail the killing scum or the target it is more likely than the two setups with a lucky doctor. As no one claimed a town PR day 1.1 I don't see why scum would not try to nightkill. And the highly unlikely scenario where a scum roleblocker blocks his own teammate only makes sence if scum knows there is a tracker, which they don't.

can we stop?

mafia doesn't role block scum
mafia doesn't no kill day 1.

titus putting as fn makes it likely its jk / doc.

all this extra talk about scum not killing / other impossible scenarios are just all filler that makes it seem like scum is tryna be productive when in reality its not and only just makes u look worse trying to talk about scenarios that would never happen.

As I said, I am still catching up. I doubted (and still soubt) it very much, that mafia did one of those two things. But it was (and is) a possibility. I wrote this before I got to the "Titus is fn"-part. I now would give those four scenarios totally different probabilities.
Oh and btw. I could accuse you of doing things worse as you were accusing me of doing: I was talking about possible but unlikely scenarios. You are suggesting an impossible scenario: There is no "friendly neighbor/doctor" setup. So in 99.9 % of cases the jailkeeper has to be the second town PR (I'll leave the 0.1 % to the tracker and scum doing what scum doesn't do in your world).

[kennyk]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

wtf is this now.. you are bringing up this possibility. there is no way u are vt.

VOTE: Kennyk

I literally just said stop making hypothetical situations that is very uncommon. and now you come up with the craziest fucking idea sob

With this post I ended my catch-up.
No, I didn't see your stop-post before said reply (which was meant to be more like a joke than to point out a real possibility). But I ask myself why you so firmly want me to stop thinking about uncommon situations. Are you scum and trying to perform a clever trick?

[Titus]

if JK jailed scum, wouldn't the other scum be able to do the attack anyway? or nah?

Yes, but there would have been a successful nightkill. Scum have to pick who does the killing.

Kinda think AlwaysNever is town for not getting this.