Newbie 2078 - Game Over

[Titus]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

VOTE: KennyK

Yeah, only possible if we managed to not kill a single other PR or get caught by them in night actions nor CCed. That's not even a strategy I'd let a newbie do and I don't really care to win in newbies.

[kennyk]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

VOTE: KennyK

Yeah, only possible if we managed to not kill a single other PR or get caught by them in night actions nor CCed. That's not even a strategy I'd let a newbie do and I don't really care to win in newbies.

I guess this forum needs an irony-sign-smiley. As said, that post wasn't meant to be taken serious.

[Titus]

UNVOTE: KennyK

I am bad with jokes.

[kennyk]

I have a general question. And allthough some don't seem to like people who try to work more on the game mechanic side, it has to to with just that.

I totally see, why the JK shouldn't claim just now. The only info gained is his target for n1 which is either scum attacker or scum target. So worst case is the JK targeted another townie, we miselim that townie and our JK is NKed. So our JK should stay silent for now.

But what should he do n2? Protect Titus our only confirmed townie, try his first target again in hope that he got scum as his first target and the same scum tries to kill again or try his luck with someone else?
Protecting Titus might lead us (with very lucky NKs) to a 2-1 situation where Titus has to do the right choice between scum and JK.
Trying the same target again could lead to a no kill again. But only if our JK did hit the scum assassin. If he targeted the scum target or mafia changes the killer this leads nowhere.
Targeting someone else is a total gamble.

Any other thoughts on this?

[kennyk]

UNVOTE: KennyK

I am bad with jokes.

Me, too. But the difference is, you are thinking you are bad at getting them. I am (very) bad at making them.

[Titus]

I have a general question. And allthough some don't seem to like people who try to work more on the game mechanic side, it has to to with just that.

I totally see, why the JK shouldn't claim just now. The only info gained is his target for n1 which is either scum attacker or scum target. So worst case is the JK targeted another townie, we miselim that townie and our JK is NKed. So our JK should stay silent for now.

But what should he do n2? Protect Titus our only confirmed townie, try his first target again in hope that he got scum as his first target and the same scum tries to kill again or try his luck with someone else?
Protecting Titus might lead us (with very lucky NKs) to a 2-1 situation where Titus has to do the right choice between scum and JK.
Trying the same target again could lead to a no kill again. But only if our JK did hit the scum assassin. If he targeted the scum target or mafia changes the killer this leads nowhere.
Targeting someone else is a total gamble.

Any other thoughts on this?

If we don't reveal the target, the jailkeeper should be engaging in a practice known as crumbing. This is subtly putting things into their post to find later on to see who was jailed.

As a strict measure, the jailkeep should always be on me. Scum always know the alignment of their kill target. If they shoot there again they a) lose the wifom and b) a shot at finding the jk. They also expose themselves to more blocks.

If the block target was scum, scum are just going to send the other guy towards me or a jailkeep suspect.

Jailkeep outs tomorrow btw.

[RCEnigma]

Yes, which is why I post them, because they prove my point.

Also, at what point did I say I was upset about Titus being confirmed town? Your angleshooting is interesting and worthy of note.

Angleshooting isn't applicable here. That's more like when you use out of game info to make in game decisions.

Like speculating on when or how people pick up role pms, checking users other activity on site, etc.

[GrandpaMo]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

wtf is this now.. you are bringing up this possibility. there is no way u are vt.

VOTE: Kennyk

I literally just said stop making hypothetical situations that is very uncommon. and now you come up with the craziest fucking idea sob

With this post I ended my catch-up.
No, I didn't see your stop-post before said reply (which was meant to be more like a joke than to point out a real possibility). But I ask myself why you so firmly want me to stop thinking about uncommon situations. Are you scum and trying to perform a clever trick?

still tho -- we already talked bout it and u even brought up to times and I had already told u to stop but u made a new post talking bout Titus and thing scum. yes I'm scum reading like for making that possibility but no that's only 50 percent of the scum read, the other scumread part of it is how u did it and just persisted to find a scumread with it. just like you are doing so right now >> me telling u to stop is getting u to think that I could scum for it.

it just feels like you are flailing rn lmfao

[GrandpaMo]

the jailkeep should always be on me

nah I won't be on u

[kennyk]

Also Greeting confirmed me as town soo

... so it could theoretically be a (bad) scum trick. You and Greeting are scum no NK and claim friendly neighbor and JK.
I know this could easily be counterclaimed by any other town PR. But theoretically it is possible.

wtf is this now.. you are bringing up this possibility. there is no way u are vt.

VOTE: Kennyk

I literally just said stop making hypothetical situations that is very uncommon. and now you come up with the craziest fucking idea sob

With this post I ended my catch-up.
No, I didn't see your stop-post before said reply (which was meant to be more like a joke than to point out a real possibility). But I ask myself why you so firmly want me to stop thinking about uncommon situations. Are you scum and trying to perform a clever trick?

still tho -- we already talked bout it and u even brought up to times and I had already told u to stop but u made a new post talking bout Titus and thing scum. yes I'm scum reading like for making that possibility but no that's only 50 percent of the scum read, the other scumread part of it is how u did it and just persisted to find a scumread with it. just like you are doing so right now >> me telling u to stop is getting u to think that I could scum for it.

it just feels like you are flailing rn lmfao

First of all I don't like to be told what to do and what not to do. There is absolutely no rule against posting theories of what happens however unlikely they might be.
Second I already mentioned why I posted those theories.
Third I think you might be a good mindreader ... not. I did in no way try to suggest that Titus is scum with that first quoted post. It was, as explained, a bad joke, which seems to be not quite as apparent as I thought. And no I didn't read you as scum or tried to do so.
Forth I don't like the tone towards me in those three posts. Way too many f-words and all. But hey, if that's your style...

[AlwaysNever]

if JK jailed scum, wouldn't the other scum be able to do the attack anyway? or nah?

Yes, but there would have been a successful nightkill. Scum have to pick who does the killing.

Kinda think AlwaysNever is town for not getting this.

I was half expecting someone to call me lamist for that but I am a bit confused about it, since I was used to a similar role that is mechanically quite different, so I just have to ask around and clarify

This is aimed at anyone but especially SE, cause they might be more experienced with this. So from what I can understand, what happened last night, as laid out on other posts, when JK is involved is:

JK jailed a scum, and scum unluckily picked the jailed person as the one to do the nightkill, thereby failing the attack
JK jailed a townie, and scum unluckily picked the townie as the nightkill target, thereby failing the attack

In both cases, the other scum are possibly rolecop (due to Process of Elimination on the possible setups after Titus reveal) doing their cop thingy, so mafia failed the night but potentially successful in their rolecop stuff

Is that correct, or is there a mistake in my understanding?

[AlwaysNever]

Also to Titus, Friendly Neighbor can message anyone right, even scum? So is there still a possibility that Greeting is scum and have to relent and let us know about your message, since withholding it would seem suspicious?

[kennyk]

@ AlwaysNever: If scum didn't do anything very stupid your two scenarios of what the JK did are correct. It is also correct that we have a rolecop in this setup. It would be the sensible thing as mafia to share the "work" meaning that the mafia goon is the killer and the rolecop is doing his thing. This way at least one of the two things they want to achieve is bound to get through. But it is possible that the rolecop did his research and the kill. Which in case of the JK jailing him would both have failed.
Yes, I know this is an unlikely scenario but still not too uncommon to mention it.

As far as I read the role descriptions Titus could have sent her message to anyone. Except her or that person being blocked it would have gone though even if that person was scum. Withholding the message after Titus question would have been suicidal as scum, because Titus would have figured out the setup. And with the given setup and Greeting not getting the message he would be 50 % scum and with that a probable day 2 (or 1.1) elim. So we don't know anything about Greetings from the fact he got this message except he can't be the jailed scum killer.
OK, he could have been the jailed scum killer. As he knew we are in the B-setups (him or his partner being the mafia rolecop) and knowing his kill didn't get through he could have deducted we are in the B2-setup and there is a fn around. With this he could have guessed what Titus question about him getting a message was meant to mean. And so he could have made up the fact that Titus message to him got through. I know this is a very farfetched theory so I doubt this is what happend.

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

I can't post for much longer - but quick addresses.

GrandpaMo - would like to see more engagement with the game i.e understanding what is going on.

AlwaysNever - but still, especially because no deaths n1, town will in all likelihood have things to go off on once d2 gets rolling.

I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.

u contradict here bud. choose a side.

you first say that I'm doing a "play"? and continue to read based on that and never secure that read until u bring meta up then continue to read me null due to conspicuous read that I haven't been engaged in the game.

Your engagement in the game didn't factor into my read of you.

It was just a comment that you didn't seem to be keeping up with the game situation (specifically re Titus/fn), and it would be better if you did.

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?

I've said it before in post 138. I still think the same. Because I know that these thoughts are colored by my own biases, I took the liberty of reading your previous game (2075) and of course I see that you are the same there.

If anything, most of your play have been individualistic, or at least against the flow of the game at that point, but does that make you scum? No.... maybe? On 2075, you did the same thing, going against the flow, but you correctly read who's scum, while still keeping the same tone. It makes me uneasy, cause then what would've happened if you are scum?

This uneasiness is why I said it's getting hard to excuse your play, cause considering you as town goes against my instinct, but I have to anyway, and this conflicting feeling grows ever more as the game progress. So each time you act just slightly scummy in my eyes, I would put you in my to-vote list/scumlean, even though logically you are about as town as me at this point

Basically, when it comes to you, my reads goes like this and it makes me uneasy


TL;DR I can't see you as town cause I got issues and I need to get over it

Yes, this is pretty much my read as well. I tried to explain in earlier posts but you worded it more elegantly here.

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

a brownie point for you, keeping my one eye on you still

I'll keep one eye on you at all times

If they weren't specifically tracker softs I wouldn't necessarily press the issue. I think if the JK was on Always then it's worth outing since it would be a psuedo red check. If not then don't.

As of right now I think if Dorsey flips red always is town. Walking home right now so once I get some time I'll give more thought to that.

nah yeah it was coincidence, thank you for giving me ideas to soft Tracker next time I got one though. fwiw, wasn't jailed, otherwise I would probably not post like what Uhuh pointed out since then I would know the setup at that point

as I said on my previous post, I am half tempted to agree with your last sentence, but again that nagging logic part of me still think it's T/T in context of me/dorsey

I can't post for much longer - but quick addresses.

GrandpaMo - would like to see more engagement with the game i.e understanding what is going on.

AlwaysNever - but still, especially because no deaths n1, town will in all likelihood have things to go off on once d2 gets rolling.

I guess you can chalk it up to me being inexperienced? when there's no kill in the night my first instinct is that there's no info that we get since we only have HF flip at that moment

I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.

Is this a post to answer Dorsey??? Just wanna make sure cause you never explicitly refer to them

Yeah it was a reply to Dorsey

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

Well I have a few thoughts on Kennyk now. A bunch of catch up posts which is understandable, followed by too many far-fetched theories imo.

Thinking about the likely scenarios gets you the most 'bang for your buck'. Theories that almost never eventuate spread scumhunting efforts thin and can become highly confusing too, in terms of trying to understanding the situation.

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

I have a general question. And allthough some don't seem to like people who try to work more on the game mechanic side, it has to to with just that.

I totally see, why the JK shouldn't claim just now. The only info gained is his target for n1 which is either scum attacker or scum target. So worst case is the JK targeted another townie, we miselim that townie and our JK is NKed. So our JK should stay silent for now.

But what should he do n2? Protect Titus our only confirmed townie, try his first target again in hope that he got scum as his first target and the same scum tries to kill again or try his luck with someone else?
Protecting Titus might lead us (with very lucky NKs) to a 2-1 situation where Titus has to do the right choice between scum and JK.
Trying the same target again could lead to a no kill again. But only if our JK did hit the scum assassin. If he targeted the scum target or mafia changes the killer this leads nowhere.
Targeting someone else is a total gamble.

Any other thoughts on this?

If we don't reveal the target, the jailkeeper should be engaging in a practice known as crumbing. This is subtly putting things into their post to find later on to see who was jailed.

As a strict measure, the jailkeep should always be on me. Scum always know the alignment of their kill target. If they shoot there again they a) lose the wifom and b) a shot at finding the jk. They also expose themselves to more blocks.

If the block target was scum, scum are just going to send the other guy towards me or a jailkeep suspect.

Jailkeep outs tomorrow btw.

Probably best to leave it to the jailkeeper to decide. Uncertainty makes it harder for scum.

[Dorsey]

Semi-V/LA for the weekend, but...
- Confirming there's no way RCEnigma and UhUhWaitAndSee are masons (I'm still trying to figure out why RCE is ignoring me regarding UhUh)
- kennyk thinks scum is someone who hasn't replaced (like RCE and UhUh)
- GrandpaMo thinks I'm dumb and my suspicions are stupid. Obviously, I disagree. Why do you think both of them are town?

I find it hard to believe that both RCE and GrandpaMo coincidentally agreed not to elim Titus D1 without knowing her alignment. Idk if it's worthwhile to try to appeal to a player earlier on in the game.

[Titus]

Dorsey, can you expand upon GrandpaMo?

[kennyk]

Semi-V/LA for the weekend, but...
- Confirming there's no way RCEnigma and UhUhWaitAndSee are masons (I'm still trying to figure out why RCE is ignoring me regarding UhUh)
- kennyk thinks scum is someone who hasn't replaced (like RCE and UhUh)
- GrandpaMo thinks I'm dumb and my suspicions are stupid. Obviously, I disagree. Why do you think both of them are town?

I find it hard to believe that both RCE and GrandpaMo coincidentally agreed not to elim Titus D1 without knowing her alignment. Idk if it's worthwhile to try to appeal to a player earlier on in the game.

Why should RCE and UhUh be masons? I thought the setup was clear. And I thought I had unlikely theories.

And no, I am not thinking that scum is someone who hasn't been replaced just because of the facr he hasn't been replaced. I just said that, apart from many other reasons such as real life and generally being bored with the game, the fact that I think it is more interesting to play as scum let's me think it is a bit more likely to leave when one is VT. That does not in any way mean I think those who have been replaced are all VT and scum therefor must be one of those left over from the start.

[RCEnigma]

I find it hard to believe that both RCE and GrandpaMo coincidentally agreed not to elim Titus D1 without knowing her alignment. Idk if it's worthwhile to try to appeal to a player earlier on in the game.

Well.... This ain't my first rodeo, I imagine it's not grandpamo's either. Even though we haven't played together. How unbelievable is it truly that two SE's found ONE townie on D1?

I haven't ignored you on uhuh, I disagree your pool has scum in it, obviously because I'm in it, and you keep pushing that I have to be scum because I don't want to murder the other person in YOUR elim pool.

Idc about uhuh either way (that's not a personal thing you're a great person uhuh) because if they are scum they are the least likely of the two to escape an elim in eLo. Prioritize threats to town, elim said threats, pray, win maybe?

[Dorsey]

I find it hard to believe, which is why I said I find it hard to believe.

You have ignored me regarding UhUhWaitAndSee. You said you supported him trying to get me to articulate my RVS vote in your Post 56 and then put him in the PoE for TL scum in your Post 274, thus protecting him. You tried deflecting from him in Post 318 by telling me to prove TL was town (which was impossible), and then said that the reason you, UhUhWaitAndSee, and Titus weren't being scrutinized was because of the SE title (Post 356); however, UhUhWaitAndSee isn't an SE (Posts 359/364).

All I was asking you was for your read of him and why you would jump to kennyk's wagon over his - I never asked you to agree with my elim pool: I asked your

opinion

of it. I never asked you to "murder" (strong AtE word choice, btw) anyone - I just thought your actions were interesting and peculiar for someone who's supposed to be trying to find scum but looks to be taking the easy way out.

If you're prioritizing threats, what threat have your prioritized over UhUhWaitAndSee?

[Dorsey]

@Titus
GrandpaMo's 488 was a response to a misinterpretation (and he also called my "readlist" bad).
1. I can read - I know Titus is town and even said so previously in Post 470; I don't know what you're apologizing for.
2.

Why

are RCE and UhUh never paired? I thought providing reasoning was the whole point of the game.
3. You can't speak from my POV because you don't have my POV - I do and I already have that covered.

No one said RCE and UhUh should be masons, kennyk, but thank you for the filler.

[RCEnigma]

had to iso myself to see if ive even brought my thoughts on uhuh up. I havent so fair enough.

Uhuh is a nonfactor is pretty much what it boils down to. 274 uhuh was tagged onto TL!scum just because I couldnt really find a partner that fit with TL anymore at that point in the game. Those two had the weakest interactions of possible suspects but that should have been the point I should have realized TL!Town in retrospect. cant be scum if you cant find a partner.

When I think of possible partner worlds, uhuh kind of falls to the wayside, likely due to an aversion to forming hard stances or just avoiding conflict in general. The same reasons you can tie uhuh with anyone are the same reasons you can tie them to no one. so it makes it difficult to differentiate between the two. whereas you have clear dichotomies like: you and I never being partners, or Grandpamo and kenny likely not being partners. So ive been more focused on distinct worlds i can prove or disprove with accompanying information.

alwaysnever and kennyk are at the top of my list, we kind of let greeting off the hook and i dont really recall why. uhuh is in the middle ground and then you, titus, grandpa all likely town or in titus' case confirmed. always could probably talk himself out of an elim so im still wary on if i truly believe hes scum, he was my top town going into the night even without the tracker softs in mind but that lines up too "coincidentally" with the setup we find ourselves in for me to ignore. Kennyk is 80% mech so it all looks like busywork while they wait on someone to lead a push. uhuh just doesnt have anything to read one way or the other but I find thats a semi common thing for newbies still finding their direction in forum mafia games.