Newbie 2078 - Game Over

[Dorsey]

VOTE: UhUhWaitAndSee

What are the "same reasons you can tie uhuh with anyone"

[RCEnigma]

floaty non stances, low impact interactions, passive pushes. there isnt anything in their iso that says nah those two cant be together.

[Dorsey]

So you think he's above suspicion because he's

outsmarting you

outplaying you

laying low, i.e. not engaging, aka active lurking?

[Dorsey]

The fact that you can't make heads or tails of him leads you to apply zero pressure at all?

[Dorsey]

It's not clear how you thinking AlwaysNever was town before last night makes him scum today due to how "coincidentally" it lines up with the setup. Also, I don't see how you're making the determination to give UhUhWaitAndSee a pass for his posts but not kennyk when they're both newbies 'finding their direction in forum mafia games'.

[kennyk]

No one said RCE and UhUh should be masons, kennyk, but thank you for the filler.

Now you are accusing me of doing filler posts because I commented your post? If one is to be accused of writing crazy things about them being masons it is you. I even quoted your post where you mentioned it.

Here it is again in case you missed it (the word mason bolded):

- Confirming there's no way RCEnigma and UhUhWaitAndSee are

masons

[Dorsey]

Thank you for showing that I was right - I didn't say RCE and UhUh should be masons, I said it's confirmed that they're not so there was no logical town-oriented reason why RCE would protect him now that we know the setup doesn't include masons.

Yes, "and I thought I had unlikely theories" = filler.

[Micc]

Greeting is V/LA until 9/27.
GrandpaMo is V/LA until 9/27.

Votecount 2.02

kennyk (1) -

GrandpaMo

UhUhWaitAndSee (1) -

Dorsey

Not Voting (6) -

UhUhWaitAndSee, kennyk, Greeting, AlwaysNever, RCEnigma, Titus

With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 2 is in (expired on 2021-09-29 23:55:00).

[RCEnigma]

I.... Don't care as much as you think I do. I haven't stopped you from pushing uhuh at all, I haven't said it's a bad push etc. At all.

[RCEnigma]

The way you're approaching me though is like I NEED to vote uhuh to prove I'm not with uhuh.

[Dorsey]

Just wanted it written in plain text.

[Titus]

VOTE: wait and See

I feel Dorsey has a better grip than I do.

[Titus]

Guys we need votes.

[kennyk]

Thank you for showing that I was right - I didn't say RCE and UhUh should be masons, I said it's confirmed that they're not so there was no logical town-oriented reason why RCE would protect him now that we know the setup doesn't include masons.

Yes, "and I thought I had unlikely theories" = filler.

You just said it is confirmed they are not masons. Than you continued with saying you were still trying to figure out why RCE ignores you. You never elaborated that you had the theory that they could be masons and all you described is because of that setup. With the information you gave in post 531 I wouldn't have bothered to comment because it all makes sense that way.

And if you try to build up a crude accusation on me just trying to look helpful by pointing at single sentences that are in your eyes fillers, I like to point at posts 527, 528 and 529. Three posts in 7 minutes directed at the same person about the same subject. Are you trying to raise your post count?

[Greeting]

My apologies for inactivity, the last week tired me out. I needed some time to rest. Here are my thoughts.

First, some replies:

I do think the jailkeeper outing themselves and who they jailed is a good move but people may disagree.

That is not a good idea. If I didn’t know for a fact that you’re town, I’d be chasing you down for it.

I think you have to accept this as my playstyle. You refer to it as active lurking - I don't think so, but either way its just a playstyle. I like to rely on hard game mechanics, especially with PR info. I have a penchant for statistics: have a look at https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=83092. On d1 scum is only eliminated +0.9% to random (town is lynched 4.7% less than random, the balance is no eliminations). All the other days, it's a lot more favored to eliminating scum than random. Why? Power roles and working out the mechanics. And working out how those mechanics relate to posts made on d1 - even though what is worked out on d1 might be tenuous.

Think of it like the way you or GrandpaMo play, which I find inherently suspicious (I've talked about this earlier). But I don't have a meta to compare it with, so I am hesitant to scum read it. If there are posts that relate to the developing mechanics that I can link back, then I can say that you are more likely to be town or more scum. Hence the emphasis on figuring out the mechanics in the first place.

I can relate to this post. I use statistics only as aid, although I strongly prefer harder evidence such as votes.

Always - We're not at D1 again, we have a flip. Also, there's nothing to "excuse" about my play - what are your issues with it?

I've said it before in post 138. I still think the same. Because I know that these thoughts are colored by my own biases, I took the liberty of reading your previous game (2075) and of course I see that you are the same there.

If anything, most of your play have been individualistic, or at least against the flow of the game at that point, but does that make you scum? No.... maybe? On 2075, you did the same thing, going against the flow, but you correctly read who's scum, while still keeping the same tone. It makes me uneasy, cause then what would've happened if you are scum?

This uneasiness is why I said it's getting hard to excuse your play, cause considering you as town goes against my instinct, but I have to anyway, and this conflicting feeling grows ever more as the game progress. So each time you act just slightly scummy in my eyes, I would put you in my to-vote list/scumlean, even though logically you are about as town as me at this point

Basically, when it comes to you, my reads goes like this and it makes me uneasy


TL;DR I can't see you as town cause I got issues and I need to get over it

I also agree with this post. I will elaborate below in the reads section.

Second, some conclusions:

Since we know that there is a Town Friendly Neighbor and

some

role that blocked N1 kill, the only logical conclusion is that the setup of this game is B2. It is very highly unlikely that a mafia team would block their own kill as there is virtually no good reason for them to do so. Therefore, the town power roles are Jailkeeper and Town Friendly Neighbor and the mafia power role would be Rolecop.

Titus is confirmed town and obviously I won’t consider myself.

That leaves us with the following players, among whom 2 are mafia members:

Dorsey
UhUhWaitAndSee
kennyk
AlwaysNever
GrandpaMo
RCEnigma

@RCEnigma has a rather aggressive playing style and is bold with pushing claims. His assumptions regarding pairings are far-fetched which I think could be a curse of experienced players. I don’t think this is the type of conclusion you can make so early in the game and push with such certainty. I think RCE is most likely a cocky townie.

@kennyk - his predecessor gave us really nothing, so I focused only on kennyk's posts. I can see independent thinking (as in #494, #512) which I always consider to be more indicative of town rather than scum. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and leave him be. Also, tbf my meta might be far-fetched but an abandoned slot seems to correlate with a vanilla townie (I disregarded that Day One and it was a mistake).

To be fair, I think the two mafia members are somewhere in this pool:

@UhUhWaitAndSee - just wanted to ask. What happened to your reads in #291? TL is gone, which leaves me and kennyk as leaning scum in your eyes. Has anything changed? I like post #485 quoted above and the fact that we share an opinion (with AlwaysNever) about Dorsey.

@AlwaysNever has a rather chill and distanced playing style. They seem to be walking your own path all times. Although it’s not fully alignment-indicative, I find players with such a playing style more likely to be town than scum.

@GrandpaMo is really messy. Honestly, just reading their posts gives me a headache. It’s hard to make sense of them. I would say that they are hiding in plain sight in a bold and messy style. It’s a strategy I had used before in mafia games when I rolled scum and managed to pull it off more than once, so I know it can be done. Sometimes I think I could imagine him spinning the wheel to pick the mood to express in their next post in the game.

@Dorsey is one player I simply cannot stop finding suspicious. I don’t know if it’s just their playing style, which is making short posts which seem to contribute to the game but on the other hand aren’t bold enough to assume any responsibility for a mislynch. It gives off a vibe of someone who is participating… but not really. Like, I don’t sense any type of conviction about anyone or risk-taking. If we were at lylo, I’d perfectly understand. But our situation is not bad and we can

still

afford to be a bit risky.

Grandpa and Dorsey are the two that give me the most errrr feeling. VOTE: Dorsey

[Dorsey]

Which posts, Greeting

[RCEnigma]

besides greeting and titus, I want everyones next post to be a readslist. please thank you.

[AlwaysNever]

besides greeting and titus, I want everyones next post to be a readslist. please thank you.

since you asked nicely....

Titus -

Locktown

duh

Greeting -

Townlean

*
I can't say much regarding them, but if certain other players flip in the color I didn't expect, or even roles I didn't expect, Greeting are instant scumlean to me. That is all I can say

Dorsey -

Null

I have said what I've said about Dorsey, putting him on null cause I still feel conflicted. I would say though, Uhuh and them are not aligned, I was thinking that they might be aligned with one of my other null reads but so far they've successfully acted in a way that led me to believe that they have no association with anyone, if anything the closest association people might give is me and them (RCE has made note of this in day 1) or titus and them, but Titus is confirmed town.

RCE -

Null

Dropped out of the townlean for now, since they pivoted to me for reasons I still can't understand (and taking what I never considered tracking softs seriously), but he might just be misunderstanding me. Still, he's going for a low hanging fruit like Kenny doesn't sit right with me, when there's Uhuh as well but he didn't consider him?

Kennyk -

Null

His slot previously, I've considered to be safe town if not null, but reading on his own posts, I would have to put him back to null for now because I don't find it as compelling to my emotion as Dew's was, but just for now.

Gpa -

Null.

..

.?

Gpa is confusing. Is he an aggressive town scumhunting the heck out of everybody? Is he scum trying to look like he's scumhunting so that's why he's aggressive? It seems like reading on some other games that this is what he usually plays, but he can really be the one I'm voting today, if not for...

Uhuh -

Scumlean

I am scared to vote for Uhuh, if only because Dorsey's adamant refusal to let him off the hook with his distant-style posts are starting to grow on me, and I don't like it when Dorsey's words started to make sense. Kinda felt like I was being manipulated into it, but they're right. Uhuh has been coasting, even his defense of him being more interested in mechanic doesn't really sit well with me, because he doesn't talk about it that much, imo. Reading their posts feels like reading a wolf watching for a town to make a mistake and jump on their hapless back.

TL;DR
I can get behind Uhuh or Gpa's wagon today, but Uhuh is priority

VOTE: UhuhWaitAndSee

well, since I've voted, I might just ask you guys some question cause that might generate content that I'm interested in seeing. If you guys have 2 people on your to-vote list today, which of them would you think is the possible rolecop?

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

Prod dodge, I don't have time to post now, will post tonight. Read list coming - No major reversing of my reads, some shifts.

[Titus]

Not a fan of always never reads. Take stances.

[UhUhWaitAndSee]

Uh...I had a post all sorted, formatting and all and I just

had to

close the tab. Saving drafts onwards now ... except the inbuilt option is not user friendly at all.

Ok, I only have time for a quick summary now.

Titus town, reads stay the same except for below.

Dorsey to lean scum (and this is now independent of playstyle). Apart from the push itself (which ofc fmpov increases the probability they are scum) there is a lack of real questioning and their only real push on me is for "lack of engagement". I have already addressed that, and got no reply: yet they keep on repeating the same things. It's ironic, because they like to hammer on others about neglecting to comprehensively reply, but seem to think that sometimes replying is not at all required when it comes to themselves.

My read of Greeting hasn't changed very much: there haven't been that many d2 posts of theirs. Pretty immediate fn target soft/reveal gives a little towncred, but its not likely the sort of thing they'd want to hide for long as scum. Obviously TL flip makes them more likely to be scum.

Ignoring Dew, I read Kennyk null. What I do not like: the far-fetched theories as mentioned earlier. What I do like: a clear ground in facts and pointing out Dorsey's posts about the possibilities of masons. Assuming no town fake claims (or lack of counterclaims, both of which is a terrible strategy in almost all cases), the probability of masons is not just low, but zero, unlike even some of Kennyk's questionable theories. But that's not the main point - #518 clearly indicates Dorsey is actively considering the possibility, but in #531 claims they weren't and instead pointing out something else which they would have just written directly (without the associated impossibility) if that was the case. Actually, the theory makes even less sense: why would me and RCE being masons explain what you are trying to explain?

Therefore VOTE: Dorsey

[Dorsey]

Which post did I not reply to

[kennyk]

Wanted to post a readlist but not without doing a proper research before. This takes longer than I expected and I need to leave now. So my readlist will follow tomorrow.

[GrandpaMo]

Gpa is confusing. Is he an aggressive town scumhunting the heck out of everybody? Is he scum trying to look like he's scumhunting so that's why he's aggressive? It seems like reading on some other games that this is what he usually plays, but he can really be the one I'm voting today, if not for...

what is this read.
and what is this readlist.

most of them are null reads.

[GrandpaMo]

@GrandpaMo is really messy. Honestly, just reading their posts gives me a headache. It’s hard to make sense of them. I would say that they are hiding in plain sight in a bold and messy style. It’s a strategy I had used before in mafia games when I rolled scum and managed to pull it off more than once, so I know it can be done. Sometimes I think I could imagine him spinning the wheel to pick the mood to express in their next post in the game.

what???

u literally have never intereacted with me to call me confusing. like what is confusing about me? i have epxlained everything that was needed to be said.

literally look at how i play. anything i have done so far is very nai