Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kinda works out that I wasnt here to out that for the first couple days as it gave people time to take stances without that info

[Hakai]

*slides in wearing socks*

Vote Count 1.03

Save The Dragons (1):

cyrus62

yessiree (1):

Farren

Nathan (1):

Hakai

Not Voting (6):

Enchant, ssbm_Kyouko, Save The Dragons, Nathann, yessiree, Pavowski

Coalition Count 1.03

Hakai (5):

Enchant, cyrus62, Pavowski, Hakai, Save The Dragons

Pavowski (3):

Enchant, yessiree, Save The Dragons

cyrus62 (5):

yessiree, Pavowski, Farren, Nathann, Hakai

Enchant (1):

Enchant

ssbm_Kyouko (1):

ssbm_Kyouko

Save The Dragons (3):

Save The Dragons, Pavowski, cyrus62

Nathann (2):

cyrus62, Pavowski

Farren (5):

Farren, Pavowski, cyrus62, Nathann, Hakai

yessiree (0):

Mod Notes: Kyouko on V/LA

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

Deadline: (expired on 2021-10-08 10:24:33)

@mod I never healed Farren

[cyrus62]

If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.

The way I see it is scum want to be in the five. Town will not worry so much about them selfs being in it simply becuse they can still win with out them selfs . I'm healing 4 at this point of time becuse save the dragons is in my Poe which stands to state scum are useing him to throw are win on day1 as for my self I hate being town read and I despise being in the core town . It limits my unpredictabley. Your also trying to use my thoughts to make your self sound better. I will now prove how you are copying me.

[cyrus62]

See I already know how I would play this as scum. I would try to get my partner town read put in the 5 then hide in the shadows hoping every one elmanateed the 5 .

This is what I said your really reaching here. Scum would be the 1st to heal them selfs. Town would be more reluctant simplely because they want in the five but need to be town read to get in it. Now you have me hoping my 5 is right.

[Enchant]

Imagine removing self from Coalition just to say "I would't do that as scum, even if it lowers my chances to win, townread pls". It's... No really. Too blatant. Too dumb.
So dumb it's really briliant. I don't think Cyrus is briliant genius as mafia.

If Cyrus really town and we not having him and me in Coalition, we probably can forget about win 1d, because i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia. So i will try to go with second plan and try to catch both mafias in Coalition. I need time to consider though.

[Farren]

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment.

easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town

.

Interesting argument. Could be a positive.

Why are both the underlined true?

[Farren]

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.

Scum response. I'm aiming to win day1 not have scum in my 5.

I think it could be a Town response. I'm having a hard time coming up with a type of scum player that would make that sort of claim.

[Farren]

@mod I never healed Farren

That's showing me healing you, not you healing me.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Imagine removing self from Coalition just to say "I would't do that as scum, even if it lowers my chances to win, townread pls". It's... No really. Too blatant. Too dumb.
So dumb it's really briliant. I don't think Cyrus is briliant genius as mafia.

If Cyrus really town and we not having him and me in Coalition, we probably can forget about win 1d, because i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia. So i will try to go with second plan and try to catch both mafias in Coalition. I need time to consider though.

If you think Cyrus is town you can put him in the coalition. If 5 people that arent Cyrus agree on a group of 5 that includes him, he still ends up in the coalition

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment.

easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town

.

Interesting argument. Could be a positive.

Why are both the underlined true?

I have difficulty emulating the full extent of my town play as scum, so it becomes apparent whether I am town or scum usually by D2 at the latest.

[Enchant]

Imagine removing self from Coalition just to say "I would't do that as scum, even if it lowers my chances to win, townread pls". It's... No really. Too blatant. Too dumb.
So dumb it's really briliant. I don't think Cyrus is briliant genius as mafia.

If Cyrus really town and we not having him and me in Coalition, we probably can forget about win 1d, because i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia. So i will try to go with second plan and try to catch both mafias in Coalition. I need time to consider though.

If you think Cyrus is town you can put him in the coalition. If 5 people that arent Cyrus agree on a group of 5 that includes him, he still ends up in the coalition

Already did.

Issue is. HE DOESH'T WANT IT.

[cyrus62]

I'm scum this time dul.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

See I already know how I would play this as scum. I would try to get my partner town read put in the 5 then hide in the shadows hoping every one elmanateed the 5 .

This is what I said your really reaching here. Scum would be the 1st to heal them selfs. Town would be more reluctant simplely because they want in the five but need to be town read to get in it. Now you have me hoping my 5 is right.

Take Nathann out you probably have 4 town there. Big shocker when you already knew who was town though.

[Farren]

HURT: Hakai
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko

[cyrus62]

See I already know how I would play this as scum. I would try to get my partner town read put in the 5 then hide in the shadows hoping every one elmanateed the 5 .

This is what I said your really reaching here. Scum would be the 1st to heal them selfs. Town would be more reluctant simplely because they want in the five but need to be town read to get in it. Now you have me hoping my 5 is right.

Take Nathann out you probably have 4 town there. Big shocker when you already knew who was town though.

Knew? I was asking for players to work with me my town read consistent of people willing to work with me. 5 I'm down to four.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Just throwing townreads to whoever is willing to work with you is not going to find you 5 town.

[Save The Dragons]

HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko

why

[Pavowski]

something about ssbm's posts bother me

Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.

The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.

Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.

Implying I will feel town later?

That might be optimistic, but in an infinite universe anything is possible

If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.

I agree with most of this, but I also tend to find people who dive deep into mechanics scummy.

Sorry SSBM, you sound townish, but you're not there.

Yet.

[redtea]

Vote Count 1.04

Save The Dragons (1):

cyrus62

yessiree (1):

Farren

Nathan (1):

Hakai

Enchant (1):

yessiree

Not Voting (5):

Enchant, ssbm_Kyouko, Save The Dragons, Nathann, Pavowski

Coalition Count 1.04

Hakai (5):

Enchant, cyrus62, Pavowski, Hakai, Save The Dragons

Pavowski (3):

yessiree, Save The Dragons, Hakai

cyrus62 (4):

Pavowski, Farren, Nathann, Hakai

Enchant (2):

Enchant, cyrus62

ssbm_Kyouko (3):

ssbm_Kyouko, Save The Dragons, Farren

Save The Dragons (3):

Save The Dragons, Pavowski, cyrus62

Nathann (2):

cyrus62, Pavowski

Farren (5):

Farren, Pavowski, cyrus62, Nathann, ssbm_Kyouko

yessiree (5):

yessiree, Save The Dragons, Pavowski, cyrus62, Farren

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate.

(expired on 2021-10-09 19:48:54) left.

[Pavowski]

Just throwing townreads to whoever is willing to work with you is not going to find you 5 town.

I heckin agree with this and it is upon reading this post I remind myself I only have so much stamina for decoding Cyrus in a day.

Anyway I hurted myself to play Cyrus's game for a bit but I'm done with that now. HEAL: Pav

[Pavowski]

Who gets my last slot, Cyrus or Enchant?

[Save The Dragons]

cyrus

[Pavowski]

You are probably right, gonna marinate on it over some tacos

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Yet

Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.