Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[Save The Dragons]

Vote Count 3.3

1 the worst (Bingle)
1 imaginality (the worst)

Not voting: House, imaginality, Morning Tweet, Something_Smart

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to yeet

(expired on 2021-10-07 11:38:18)

[Morning Tweet]

You could... what

[Morning Tweet]

House who got nightkilled due to the 8-ball activation

[House]

You asked.

Like I said, I'm lost & shouldn't be directing shit.

[Something_Smart]

It's Xylo anyway, no?

Only if we execute the 8-ball today.

[Morning Tweet]

Who did you think got killed out of curiosity?

In any case you don't gotta direct so much as obvtown so town isn't distracted

That being said, I don't think most town are scumreading you

[Morning Tweet]

It's Xylo anyway, no?

Only if we execute the 8-ball today.

Do you value scum not being able to try and WIFOM you over helping us not lose Xylo?

[House]

Who did you think got killed out of curiosity?

In any case you don't gotta direct so much as obvtown so town isn't distracted

That being said, I don't think most town are scumreading you

I had no clue.
Didn't even look tbh.

Been checked out since Wisdom flipped green.

I'm done with trying to push my opinion this game. I've done enough damage.

[Something_Smart]

Do you value scum not being able to try and WIFOM you over helping us not lose Xylo?

Yes. Also it's probably not xylo.

[Morning Tweet]

Who did you think got killed out of curiosity?

In any case you don't gotta direct so much as obvtown so town isn't distracted

That being said, I don't think most town are scumreading you

I had no clue.
Didn't even look tbh.

Been checked out since Wisdom flipped green.

I'm done with trying to push my opinion this game. I've done enough damage.

It's one wrong elimination and you're a replacement just like I am, I don't think it's such a big deal.

I just want to ensure you're not feigning demotivation as a way to ride to an easy win here. I don't think that's the case but I'd feel better if you tried a little.

[House]

Feel what you feel.

[Morning Tweet]

Do you value scum not being able to try and WIFOM you over helping us not lose Xylo?

Yes. Also it's probably not xylo.

What makes you think scum values gaming your reads so highly? I'd probably try to miselim you as scum, not try and persuade you.

I disagree. It's at least 40-50% Xylo in my mind. There are only so many targets and if we vote 8-ball twice (as town) we lose.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I'm one of only 4 town players in the game. If we execute town today that goes down to 1 in 3; as long as I'm not the person being executed, which seems pretty unlikely at the moment, I'm going to have significant influence over who is.

I did assume that there would be more consensus going into today. I'm kinda surprised given the way that the last few days played out that there isn't, honestly. Perhaps I'm just out of touch with the game.

[Morning Tweet]

Does it feel like both SS and worstie don't get into their reads hardly at all in order to avoid the 8-ball (at least in SS's case but worstie does it too for one reason or another i suppose), and yet, show relatively little worry for the 8-ball? Is that a reasonable observation to make?

What is the point of hiding your reads to mess up scum's kill but continuing to assume the 8-ball is an unlikelihood? You're getting the best of both worlds there, if that makes sense. You don't have to share your reads and if the 8-ball happens, it happens.

Granted, from town!worst's PoV, maybe Bingle is a good candidate for scum. He's also a fabulous candidate for town 8-ball. I suppose I'm not super hot on Bingle being scum as of right now. It does more or less read as Bingle screaming at a brick wall while duck reclines on the beach with a little umbrella drink in hand, totally unphased

[Something_Smart]

Well, my assumption is that we are going to play in a way that makes us unlikely to hit the 8-ball, since we should be doing this anyway.

[Morning Tweet]

I think there was a really good chance I started today pushing Bingle (since that was my idea yesterday). If I had done that, I'm pretty sure non-Bingle scumteams win. That's a big part of why I think he's the 8-ball.

If Bingle is scum, he still might be 8-ball, of course. Maybe I should try **really really** hard to read Bingle since that's probably going to say a lot about the game, but I haven't really gotten a good grasp of him -- aside from how his EoD votes are both completely abhorrent and somewhat unbelievable for scum to make. But I agree with the counterarguments from SS/imagine saying that's not a valid defense.

[Morning Tweet]

Well, my assumption is that we are going to play in a way that makes us unlikely to hit the 8-ball, since we should be doing this anyway.

How is sitting back and letting everyone else decide the elims going to make the 8-ball unlikely to hit, from your town PoV?

[Morning Tweet]

Unless that's not what you're planning on doing, but you would need to like, share reads, in order to convince people to join/leave wagons

[Something_Smart]

It is not what I plan on doing. In a game this small, I'm not sure that's true.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think the 8-ball today is necessarily town?

[Morning Tweet]

Well, if scum puts the 8-ball on scum, that's hedging their bets and placing game to a 1/4 Xylo next phase if that scum dies. But if a townie is limmed when they place on scum, they just missed an opportunity to win.

As scum, if there's a win, and there's no real downside to trying for it, I'd take it. Especially if it's like at probably close to coinflip odds right now. I think it'd be a mistake not to take that.

Now if it was exceedingly obvious who we were eliminating today and that person were scum, then sure I think it'd be on them. There is no such target, though. I think they go for the win.

In any case I'm playing as if they did to be safe

[imaginality]

This

It's X-lo if we mis-lim the 8-ball today. And I think because of the hammer, it's pretty likely Bingle is 8-ball, regardless of alignment. So in case I'm wrong in my suspicion, I don't want to slap a vote on just yet.
[...]
And I'm not voting Bingle because I'm trying to follow through my thoughts of 'if scum!Bingle, who's the partner?' and 'if town!Bingle, who's the scumteam?' because if a player is in both of those they might be the better elimination today.

Ah, so you aren't planning on pushing Bingle today, nevermind, I interpreted your posts that way. I agree Bingle is a highly likely 8-ball.

I still feel like Ali and Mom/SS were the best 8-balls D1. I never said both scum had to be on-wagon EoD of course. But yeah, it is speculative. And you would think scum would push the wagon 100%, through in theory.

Yeah I misunderstood you on Bingle for sure. And you make a fair point that most players really did gun Ali + Wisdom. So without that Bingle component, I'm not pinged.

To clarify (even if it turns on your pings again) I am quite possibly going to push Bingle. My "I'm not voting Bingle" meant "not voting him already" (as I think the rest of the post makes clear). He's the player I see as most ljkelt to be scum, but recognising he's the likely 8-ball and we're in 8-ball-lo, I want to either raise my confidence in that from 'likely scum' to 'almost certain scum', or see if I can figure out who his buddy is.

On that note I do have a theory forming but I want to wait a little longer before going into details about that.

[Morning Tweet]

I'm hitting another roadblock

I do think there is a good reason to withhold your reads temporarily. For the whole phase, no though.

I'm starting to hone in on viewing the game exactly one way but there's plenty of time and for a lot of slots I just don't have a lot of info on.

pedit: Meh I don't think it's unreasonable to possibly push Bingle. I don't know why I thought you were set on that though.

[Something_Smart]

I do think there is a good reason to withhold your reads temporarily. For the whole phase, no though.

What's the point though if you don't maintain it into the night? That's when it matters.

[imaginality]

Does it feel like both SS and worstie don't get into their reads hardly at all in order to avoid the 8-ball (at least in SS's case but worstie does it too for one reason or another i suppose), and yet, show relatively little worry for the 8-ball? Is that a reasonable observation to make?

That seems to be SS's motivation but for the worst is that true? At least I don't think they've explicitly stated that anywhere.