newbie 2080: correct statements (this is over)

[Cook]

facebones what are your thoughts on spangled

pagetop

[Spangled]

I thought it was funny how he looked like he didn’t want the strategy to be done, because it helped him when he was scum, but then kinda said, ‘I understand your hesitance, but it's something we kinda have to decide on sooner rather than later if it's going to work’, which read like he was supporting it to me. But other than that he hasn’t said much or done much; maybe some slight townpoints for pointing out to us the games where your strategy was implemented (or not) and for saying that no one should VT-claim, but that’s inside anyone’s scumrange

He’s in the null-basket, but what can you expect for 6 posts, I guess

[Cook]

we also have yet to see mewtaph in thread

if they’re tracker i’m gonna be mad

[Spangled]

Aside from anything else, I did the math in Newbie2076 and showed empirically that it's a terrible strat.

The fact that Cook is pushing it, after having pushed it as scum, despite, according to Cook, it not being advantageous to scum, makes me think Cook understands it's a bad strat

VOTE: Cook

ehhh no I get Cook’s feeling that she wanted to get the strategy out there, into the world, I understand being excited about something but then getting a red role PM. She probably introduced it in the other game with the idea that it would het her towncred. That does mean I won’t give her any towncred for introducing the strategy here, but I don’t think it makes her scum.

pedit
that would be annoying

[Cook]

if people townread me for posting an organized plan for town to play off of that’s fine, i put forth the strategy so town wins, not so i get locktowned.

[schadd_]

moths, lemurs and humans are all unable to jump!

vote count 1.1

Spangled (2):

Roden, Cook

Galron (2):

Thynhith, DArby

DArby (1):

Spangled

Cook (1):

MargotRosa

not voting (3):

Facebones, Mewtaph, Galron

with 9 alive, it takes 5 to eliminate. day 1 ends in (expired on 2021-10-10 13:35:00)

[Spangled]

I assume you missed a “don’t”, there, Cook

while you’re around — if you still are — can I get a response to this here below post?

This looks good.
Worst case we have a bulletproof IC, best case we can do a good ol’ follow the cop.
Should we be no-limming today?
What about if we get a cop claim or not-blocked tracker D2? do we lim then? ‘cause we might hit the doc
and if we get a cop claim, they might be masons — doesn’t that possibility throw a spanner in the works?

@Cook

[Spangled]

mewtaph hasn’t been posted since Sep 26, and he’s been repped out in the other game he’s playing in; hope we get a replacement soon if we need it

[Spangled]

I mean, I’d prefer that he come back all of a sudden but I mean either result is good

sorry for all the multiposting, everyone, by the way
arguably better than wallposting, though, :D
not that there’s much call to wallpost so far
anyway

[Cook]

I assume you missed a “don’t”, there, Cook

while you’re around — if you still are — can I get a response to this here below post?

This looks good.
Worst case we have a bulletproof IC, best case we can do a good ol’ follow the cop.
Should we be no-limming today?
What about if we get a cop claim or not-blocked tracker D2? do we lim then? ‘cause we might hit the doc
and if we get a cop claim, they might be masons — doesn’t that possibility throw a spanner in the works?

@Cook

i missed a don’t.

never no eliminate d1.

cop claim day two means we don’t lim either unless there’s a cc iirc.

if tracker claims a result then we just play it like follow the cop.

OH RIGHT

IF YOU GET AN FN MESSAGE WITH A CLAIMED TRACKER DO NOT CLAIM IT UNLESS SOMEONE CLAIMS DOC OR THE TRACKER IS DEAD. SCUM WILL KILL THE TRACKER IF YOU OUT AN FN

ONLY IN THIS CASE

[Thynhith]

Giving Roden a town read.

galron I'm not sure how you came to that read after only 5 posts, can you explain your thinking? you mentioned you were a "town hunter" before

[Spangled]

I have an Opinion on Facebones now but I want to see what Thynhith has to say about him before I detail it.

@Facebones yeah, I get you on the whiteknighting, and what’s more I agree; I don’t think DArby is whiteknighting me, since it seems more targeted

at

Galron than defending

me

especially since he’s disagreed with me a couple times already in-thread

I always get nervous that I’m getting pocketed/buddied, since I like to do it so much as scum

hey Thynhith, now that you’re around, can I have your opinion on Facebones’ entrance?

[Roden]

I thought it was funny how he looked like he didn’t want the strategy to be done, because it helped him when he was scum, but then kinda said, ‘I understand your hesitance, but it's something we kinda have to decide on sooner rather than later if it's going to work’, which read like he was supporting it to me. But other than that he hasn’t said much or done much; maybe some slight townpoints for pointing out to us the games where your strategy was implemented (or not) and for saying that no one should VT-claim, but that’s inside anyone’s scumrange

He’s in the null-basket, but what can you expect for 6 posts, I guess

I don't think the strategy is a good idea, but I don't want to infer whether I'm VT or PR through my decision. Essentially, I'm willing to participate if everyone else is, and if we are doing it we should do it now.

If we're waiting for Mew I'm fairly certain they dipped out of the web site a few days ago.

[Roden]

I do think it's funny Galron said he isn't pocketing me and then town read me soon afterward lol. But going off his past games I don't think scum!Galron would do that. And no I'm not trying to get comfy in his pocket here.

[Thynhith]

back now.

Cook's Handy, Dandy Plan

1. Tracker claims Day One. If nobody claims Tracker we just eliminated three setups (A2, B1, and B3).
   Protectives go on the Tracker claim. This will mean that the Tracker is jailkept in A2 and protected in B3.
   
   Tracker reports result D2. If Tracker claims blocked then we know we're in A2 and play the Tracker as an IC. If scum tries to ride the towncred then they're functionally down a player.
   If Tracker claims a result we just go Follow The Cop from here since Mafia only gets a rolecop.
   
2. If no Tracker claims then we have a normal D1 with a normal D1 elimination.
   
3. D2, Cop claims with result. Scum killing either the cop or their clear will result in the other one being IC'd the next day, therefore they must shoot elsewhere.
   
   If Masons exist then one Mason claims Cop with a clear on their partner, since either one dying proves the other one.
   
   If Scum tries to do this with partners then we'll end up 1-for-1'ing cop claims and we'll invariably win.
   
4. If you get an FN message, claim it but not who sent it. If you or the FN are run up to E-1 you may claim the message. We will preserve the FN from elimination for one night to let them send another message, if someone reports it the next day the FN is cleared. Jailkeeper, if there's a claimed FN don't prot them for one night, let them get a message – if scum kills them that leaves us rolecop vs jailkeeper, which we can win. This is our worst possible configuration.
   
5. Prots don't claim unless you're at E-1 or you need to counterclaim.

Let me try analyzing this, I'm still rather skeptical of it

No one claims:
We eliminate three setups. This is somewhat beneficial for determining our setup, but not imo significant. Also informs scum of what PR we may have.
Tracker + Doc:
The most ideal setup, only has a 1/9 chance of happening.
Tracker + JK:
Jailkeeper is tied up using their power on tracker and unable to investigate potential scum. Same with tracker. Wouldn't it be better for them both to claim? If scum don't cc, we'll have two IC, one of which can investigate once (the other gets killed).
Tracker + FN:
Our tracker gets NKd.

So we have a 1/9 chance of a beneficial outcome, 1/9 chance of a bad outcome, and a 7/9 chance of a meh outcome. I don't see how this is any better than no strat, @Cook could you explain how this strat would improve our odds?

[Thynhith]

Sorry for my absence, I was either sleeping or working. On my lunch break now, but before I go back some food for thought: not reading a players post due to apathy seems worse than not reading it due to laziness. Galron, is it just Cook's posts you're apathetic towards? Why?

I have an Opinion on Facebones now but I want to see what Thynhith has to say about him before I detail it.

@Facebones yeah, I get you on the whiteknighting, and what’s more I agree; I don’t think DArby is whiteknighting me, since it seems more targeted

at

Galron than defending

me

especially since he’s disagreed with me a couple times already in-thread

I always get nervous that I’m getting pocketed/buddied, since I like to do it so much as scum

hey Thynhith, now that you’re around, can I have your opinion on Facebones’ entrance?

Eh idk why it's that important but alright. Feels fairly natural to me, though FB has been lurking a bit yesterday and today. Can't read anything with only three posts

[Spangled]

I do think it's funny Galron said he isn't pocketing me and then town read me soon afterward lol. But going off his past games I don't think scum!Galron would do that. And no I'm not trying to get comfy in his pocket here.

Is it that you don’t think he’d do that as scum, and he must be therefore town, or just that it’s something he could do as town?
(which leaves him open to being scum, of course)

‘cause that’s a small reason to rule him out of being scum; a small reason to essentially locktown him

[Spangled]

Sorry for my absence, I was either sleeping or working. On my lunch break now, but before I go back some food for thought: not reading a players post due to apathy seems worse than not reading it due to laziness. Galron, is it just Cook's posts you're apathetic towards? Why?

I have an Opinion on Facebones now but I want to see what Thynhith has to say about him before I detail it.

@Facebones yeah, I get you on the whiteknighting, and what’s more I agree; I don’t think DArby is whiteknighting me, since it seems more targeted

at

Galron than defending

me

especially since he’s disagreed with me a couple times already in-thread

I always get nervous that I’m getting pocketed/buddied, since I like to do it so much as scum

hey Thynhith, now that you’re around, can I have your opinion on Facebones’ entrance?

Eh idk why it's that important but alright. Feels fairly natural to me, though FB has been lurking a bit yesterday and today. Can't read anything with only three posts

yeah, fair on the three posts
I disagree, however, I think so far Facebones is really towny

straight from his entrance he’s been asking questions and getting people to say stuff, asking me why I’m doing what I’m doing and putting pressure on Galron
if he were scum, me asking him if he thought DArby was whiteknighting me was me essentially giving scum!him a plausible-sounding read that he could use to introduce discord in the town
it was a great opportunity for scum!him to jump on DArby, but he didn’t
of course he could have just been playing it safe, but I think it’s still a point in his favour

it isn’t that much, and like you say it’s just three posts, but so far he’s my highest TR
not that that’s uh saying all that much :D

[Cook]

will defend when not on phone, the tracker fn is no longer an autolose because we no longer claim FN messages with an active Tracker on the board — scum can no longer out guess us and we play Follow the Cop from here on out. once tracker or scum dies we can out the FN.

claimed fn should not be eliminated until at least 2 people have messages, to prevent scum from faking FN. from there, IC the fn and stick a jail keeper there.

in order of out: tracker, cop/mason, friendly neighbor

also incredibly important we do not out protectives for any reason except for CC or to narrow the pool when hunting 1 scum

[Roden]

I do think it's funny Galron said he isn't pocketing me and then town read me soon afterward lol. But going off his past games I don't think scum!Galron would do that. And no I'm not trying to get comfy in his pocket here.

Is it that you don’t think he’d do that as scum, and he must be therefore town, or just that it’s something he could do as town?
(which leaves him open to being scum, of course)

‘cause that’s a small reason to rule him out of being scum; a small reason to essentially locktown him

I never said anything about him being lock town.

I've played a few games with him now, and I'm just starting to pick up on his general tone. I think it's easy to scum read him due to his tone, but it softens a bit when he's scum and he falls a bit more into the background. This is just an assumption but it seems like a natural self-preservation thing to me.

So for me I guess it's less that he town read me off of so little and more because his tone so far is a bit of a meta tell. I'm not town locking him but he's definitely a town read for me.

[MargotRosa]

I don't really have a handle on this game yet. Well, maybe a little. I'll let Will Geer in on this; I mean that was six or seven seasons on the Walons and he almost always had a line on everyone in the cast.

Truth be told, I'm not so much of a scum hunter as a town hunter. I can spot a John Boy. But if you want me to find an Ashley Longworth, Sr or Jr, it takes me a bit of work.

Sorry, I don't get this reference, but I'll see how well this holds up.

yeah, I get you on the whiteknighting, and what’s more I agree; I don’t think DArby is whiteknighting me, since it seems more targeted

at

Galron than defending

me

especially since he’s disagreed with me a couple times already in-thread

^ This

Aside from anything else, I did the math in Newbie2076 and showed empirically that it's a terrible strat.

The fact that Cook is pushing it, after having pushed it as scum, despite, according to Cook, it not being advantageous to scum, makes me think Cook understands it's a bad strat

VOTE: Cook

I agree. If this is a plan that can be pushed by scum and say it's an advantage for town then it's not as advantageous to town as claimed. I'm fine with skipping this plan.

@MargotRosa Can I see your math?

Sure. There is some intricacies that the math doesn't account for w.r.t. who gets eliminated d1 and d2, so take this as very rough. This is a best case scenario in which we assume Town eliminates at least one scum d1 or d2. I also had to change some 6s to 5s, which was a mistake I realised towards the end of the game

Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.

Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?

No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.

VOTE: T3

Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.

If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.

If we don't reveal tracker, the likelihood that town randomly loses both PRs by d3 is 2/7 * 1/5 = ~5.7% chance. This is not even taking into account whether we have a doctor, and if we do, that chance is lessened even more.

On the other hand, if we do reveal tracker, the chance that we lose both PRs by d3 is the chance of randomly picking the doctor out of the remaining 6 townies, allowing them to kill the tracker n2, giving 1/5 = ~20% chance. Here, there is no real doctor to lessen the chance further, as doc needs to protect tracker on the off chance scum play a wild card and kill tracker as a fake (risk of this happening is higher than the probability of randomly picking the 1/6 townie that scum will also target).

That is how much we screw ourselves by revealing a role. <4.8% chance of randomly losing both PRs goes up to ~17% chance.

As T3 is a seasoned forum player, I'd expect them to know this, or have at least observed it. Absolutely scum read on T3.

[MargotRosa]

As if to prove my point, in that game after revealing tracker, we eliminated the mafia power role d1, and had lost both PRs by the third night

[Spangled]

As if to prove my point, in that game after revealing tracker, we eliminated the mafia power role d1, and had lost both PRs by the third night

yessss although that was only because the doctor had to claim at E-1, right? which isn’t something that should happen under Cook’s strategy because we no-lim D2 unless there’s a CC or such

@Roden
fair enough, I get that
I’ll be interested in revisiting your ideas on him later, when we’re a bit further into the day or even on d2 or something, and he’s said more (or not said more, as it may be)

[MargotRosa]

As if to prove my point, in that game after revealing tracker, we eliminated the mafia power role d1, and had lost both PRs by the third night

yessss although that was only because the doctor had to claim at E-1, right? which isn’t something that should happen under Cook’s strategy because we no-lim D2 unless there’s a CC or such

Doctor had to claim d3

[MargotRosa]

And actually, if we have tracker, it's very likely we have a mafia rolecop which makes it more likely scum finds doctor immediately