Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[imaginality]

Who did you think got killed out of curiosity?

In any case you don't gotta direct so much as obvtown so town isn't distracted

That being said, I don't think most town are scumreading you

I had no clue.
Didn't even look tbh.

Been checked out since Wisdom flipped green.

I'm done with trying to push my opinion this game. I've done enough damage.

House, please don't check out like this. I think you're likely town and I think we need your voice in the mix. Especially as everyone else is fairly active now (except maybe the worst) so it's going to significantly help to make that conversation 67% town voices and town thoughts, rather than 60%.

[Morning Tweet]

I do think there is a good reason to withhold your reads temporarily. For the whole phase, no though.

What's the point though if you don't maintain it into the night? That's when it matters.

To see what everyone else pushes first. That way, you might be able to get a read on the 8-ball.

Though I didn't do a good job of waiting to share cause I'm an impatient bat.

Does it feel like both SS and worstie don't get into their reads hardly at all in order to avoid the 8-ball (at least in SS's case but worstie does it too for one reason or another i suppose), and yet, show relatively little worry for the 8-ball? Is that a reasonable observation to make?

That seems to be SS's motivation but for the worst is that true? At least I don't think they've explicitly stated that anywhere.

You're right, I'm not sure what worstie's is. He said he "doesn't engage with scum" -- but I'm not sure he ever explained why Bingle/Wisdom were scum nor really engaged with Bingle at any point.

I do think that worstie doesn't care about the 8-ball and would just rather target his highest scum (796). Now, sure, that may be valid but if worstie is scum that just so happens to be game-winning to target Bingle.

[Morning Tweet]

And not showing his work as to why it's Bingle + not really caring that Bingle has 8-ball is just a strange combo to me

[Something_Smart]

To see what everyone else pushes first. That way, you might be able to get a read on the 8-ball.

That's true I guess, though you can (and should) reevaluate your reads in light of what other people are pushing even if you don't hide them initially.

[Morning Tweet]

Of course, although you run the risk of scum intentionally manipulating their reads to agree with your wrong 8-ball scumread or right townreads.

In any case, that's why I might put the brakes on reads. I think avoiding giving your thoughts just so scum can't game you as well isn't worth

[Morning Tweet]

disagree with your right townreads*

I'm just gonna spoil it, it seems like worstie is scum who is vocally sympathetic to 8-ball Bingle's elim whereas the other scum is withholding those thoughts and will simply hammer when clueless town vote Bingle alongside worst's help.

I hear it already: "But Bingle could be doing the same thing!" or "Or Bingle is just scum!"

Yes yes well if Bingle is scum that would make me incorrect yeah. Kind of what I want to evaluate. I think this is a fabulous gameplan, I know at least myself would have been an obvious townie to use for a Bingle lim, would just need one more and that could prolly be anyone. Boom, win for non!Bingle team.

I don't think Bingle is doing the same thing though, I don't think scum!Bingle 8-balls worst, to be honest. No one listened to him yesterday, whereas there was a ton of traction on Bingle yesterday. I don't know if that team really expects to win that 1v1, I think Bingle is the favourite to elim. But, maybe, it is still a win if he does.

[Morning Tweet]

i remember ending the day thinking and mom and taly were kinda towny
i think i liked imaginality?
probably going to start by looking for 2 in MT, House, Bingle.

VOTE: House as a starting point.

honestly still just think bingle is scum and i'd rather a scum flip and staying in stressful ELo than elim someone kinda meh
i'll do some more reading when i'm not at work

Worstie's confidence in his townreads come across as backed by so little substance, it's surprising that he'd be willing to gamble on Bingle, no?

It doesn't help that there is definitely 2 town in MT/House/Bingle MAYBE 3

[Morning Tweet]

why am i hearing dark souls music

i'm sensing.... a duck 1v1 coming up (maybe)... not again!!

[the worst]

i'm not really interested in 1v1ing u, i think this is your towngame (and more importantly, i don't think there are any deathtunnelled townies who i can use to destroy you)

[the worst]

i'm gonna decide what the theme music for the 1v1 we're not having is and return though

[Bingle]

@Bingle:

I thought wis was more likely town than scum, but not strongly.

I had decided he wasn’t likely an 8-ball with the vehemence literally everyone was saying he wasn’t 8-ball with

, but I didn’t see the thread mood changing to a place where anyone would engage about duck without a flip.

Why would that convince you? I mean, scum would lie to you. You don't seem like someone who gets swayed by other people's views compared to your own.

Didn't you yourself in your past game of this (the one someone linked to when they said you're against no-lims) argue town should vote without caring whether someone might be 8-ball or not? Have your views changed since then?

I do tend to trust external reads over my own when I have reason to do so, actually. More to the point, whether Wis was the 8 ball wasn't a function of whether I would 8 ball Wis, but rather whether other people would 8 ball Wis. I assumed that the vehemence everyone was arguing he couldn't be 8 ball made it less likely some other person would 8 ball him. Which is an interesting angle of analysis that I should probably do but am probably also not going to do tonight. If someone wants to save me the effort and look at who was most likely to be bullshitting their stance of "Wis can't be 8 ball" I'd be obliged.

Dafuq is this sequence?

Mt: duck avoided Bingle to fluff.
Bingle: duck avoided Taly too, so it wasn’t about his scumread on me.
Duck: I avoided Bingle because he’s scum!
Also duck: I avoided Bingle because I’d caught scum!

What even is this bullshit?

Do you believe what you're saying here (there's at least one obvious reasonable interpretation of the worst's comment), or are you just looking for excuses to attack the worst?

I... What? Do you seriously expect anyone would ever say "No, I'm just pulling shit out of my ass?"

In any case, the issue isn't that the worst isn't responding to JUST me. I pointed out that that was explained by worst thinking I was confscum. The issue is that the worst isn't responding to fucking anyone, including his townreads, and his immediate response to that was "I'm ignoring you because you're scum." It's a blatant misrep of what's actually scummy about his behavior. And then to double down and misrep MT's callout that he was clearly around and engaging in fluff but avoiding content he setup the I spent my time finding scum instead. You know: ignoring MT. Who he thinks is town.

[the worst]

i'm gonna decide what the theme music for the 1v1 we're not having is and return though

i think the best thing i can settle on is this because the title really capitalises on the fact only one of us is feelin the 1v1 u know?

Spoiler:

[the worst]

VOTE: imaginality

[House]

VOTE: imaginality

Eh.

[Bingle]

Didn't you yourself in your past game of this (the one someone linked to when they said you're against no-lims) argue town should vote without caring whether someone might be 8-ball or not? Have your views changed since then?

I was looking for this to respond to it and didn't realize it was in the same post I'd already responded to.

I do think that it is protown to scumhunt normally D1 and vote whoever you think is the scummiest regardless of 8 ball equity, because tying an arm behind your back to make scumhunting harder is more likely to end in a town elimination and tainted scumhunting for analysis. If I were townduck, absolutely convinced that Bingle was scum, I would be voting Bingle. As town Bingle, absolutely convinced duck is scum, I'm voting duck.

I also don't think scum should try particularly hard to get an 8 ball elim on D1 because it risks giving town more information than they would otherwise have to solve the game and makes scum play unnaturally, which is the easiest way to catch them. As scum for D1 I would probably have unprovably randomized who the eight ball choice was (or if it had been an option chosen no elimination) because 7p with town having shit information isn't much worse for scum than 6p with town having decent information. Whether scum actually did that or not is something I have to wait to see for endgame.

[Bingle]

Do you value scum not being able to try and WIFOM you over helping us not lose Xylo?

Yes. Also it's probably not xylo.

It's definitely misyeet-8-ball-lo

[Bingle]

House, please don't check out like this. I think you're likely town and I think we need your voice in the mix. Especially as everyone else is fairly active now (except maybe the worst) so it's going to significantly help to make that conversation 67% town voices and town thoughts, rather than 60%.

Possibly more to the point, it's 4 to lim and there are 4 remaining townies.

[the worst]

i kind of feel like imaginality is posting from a position of watching bingle and i interact as tvt and it's givin me goosebumps. look i know when i look bad and don't really deserve to be buddied and he's both-siding bingle and i in a way that i think is kind of counter-intuitive because bingle is bleeding town atm.

[the worst]

i think the way i'm going to split this game in my mind is this: if bingle is town, he's absolutely the 8-ball. if bingle is scum, he's maybe the 8-ball, but given wisdom was the 8-ball last phase i kind of have a feeling scum are greedy this game and will probably go for the win while it's sitting there ready to be taken.

[the worst]

so if bingle/me is tvt scum win by falling on the losing side of this, and either {winning instantly, capitalising on the lost 1v1 tomorrow}. i'm a lot more concerned about people who are coasting & both-siding this fight than people who are actively trying to work this out.

i genuinely think bingle thinks he's caught a scumduck and i genuinely think MT's contributions make absolutely no sense from scum if my gamestate intuitions are even close to correct.

i'm looking at {imaginality, ss, house} for a solve and i weakly lean away from this being ali's scumgame as well.

[the worst]

Bugle can be scum only really in a world where he felt like he could get away with abandoning a stronger scumread on me to drive thru an elim on town 8ball wisdom and then during the night phase just went "hot damn I'm good, I can get away with anything, let's 8ball worstie and I'll just drill the duck into the ground tomorrow" and then he just.... Came and did that at the expense of trying to improve his optics (his solve is half baked after he pivoted to wisdom for no real reason d2) or anything at all and, like

Bingle has big energy don't get me wrong
I don't think he's channelling ENOUGH energy to be that guy in this game

[the worst]

Friendly reminder that I kinda just vibed and lurked while Bingle pushed me so I'm hard pressed to think he thinks it looks good. If the mood is that Bungle vs. duck is the main event and that you don't really buy my read (or just can't believe I'm scum), please consider one simple truth:

- Scum are playing hard in this game, and will be gambling on winning through this 1v1.
- if you think one of bungle and I are scum, find our partner, or face that there's a decent chance of hitting the town 8-ball in us and losing.

if you think I'm scum with Bingle, I guess this probably just looks like some classic worst scumfuckery trying to sneak in a wagon on a third party 8-ball so call my bluff, I guess. whatever you do you.

[the worst]

Reads are loosely at

MT
Bingle
the worst
House
Ss
Imaginality

[House]

Reads are loosely at

MT
Bingle
the worst
House
Ss
Imaginality

You're not at the top of your own reads list?

[the worst]

Do you trust me?