Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[Save The Dragons]

Vote Count 3.4

1 the worst (Bingle)
1 imaginality (the worst)

Not voting: House, imaginality, Morning Tweet, Something_Smart

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to yeet

(expired on 2021-10-07 11:38:18)

[Morning Tweet]

You're missing somebody...

well it was more or less a post directed at imagine assuming imagine is town

In my present view personally im actually a bit unsure as to whether imagine is town or not, probably leaning towards town but if so that'd make worstie scum

[Morning Tweet]

(im buttering everyone up to voting u )

starting with imagine

[Something_Smart]

well it was more or less a post directed at imagine assuming imagine is town

Fair enough. But if it's directed at imagine, you can't really expect "I'm town" to be that convincing to him.

[Morning Tweet]

I've got high hopes!

[imaginality]

Funnily enough I had written a note to myself about the same idea (voting SS) to muse on before I went to sleep.

Because ironically despite Something_Smart being lower than Bingle and the worst in my individual reads, the fact he's arguably less likely to be 8-ball and can be buddies with either of them does make him possibly the best choice of the three to eliminate today. Least likely game-losing if we get it wrong. And we gain an extra mislim if we are right. Compared to if I'm right about Bingle being scum, if he's 8-ball it'll still be 8-ball-lo tomorrow. And that would be a riskier time to elim SS as he'd be more likely 8-ball then.

The cons of this idea: we didn't think Wisdom was 8-ball so maybe it's better to not try to second guess what scum have chosen.

I'm thinking about it. Breakfast first.

Probably worth noting similar thoughts should apply to people with combinations of me and Bingle or the worst in their suspects I guess, I'm probably a safer elim than either of them in terms of less likely game ending if wrong.

@Something_Smart

- how likely do

you

think it is that you're the 8-ball?

[Something_Smart]

Rising rapidly.

[the worst]

VOTE: imaginality

[imaginality]

Mathing it out, from my perspective:

Odds of people being scum (low-ball estimates)
70% Bingle is scum
60% tw is scum
40% SS is scum
20% House is scum
10% MT is scum
0% I'm scum

Odds of people being 8-ball if town (higher end estimates):
80% Bingle is 8-ball if town
40% tw is 8-ball if town
30% SS is 8-ball if town
20% House is 8-ball if town
10% MT is 8-ball if town
30% I'm 8-ball if town

Bingle lim: 70% we lim scum, 24% we lose
Tw lim: 60% we lim scum, 16% we lose
SS lim: 40% we lim scum, 12% we lose
House lim: 20% we lim scum, 4% we lose
MT lim: 10% we lim scum, 1% we lose
Me lim: 0% we lim scum, 30% we lose

This was useful I didn't think SS and the worst were so similar in terms of chances of us losing if we're wrong about them.

I'd encourage others to do a similar analysis from their perspectives.

For me the above leads me to think the right vote for me is:
VOTE: the worst

[Morning Tweet]

I think SS isn't town and isn't 8-ball

I think Bingle is town and is 8-ball

Imagineality or worstie are town, worstie has a bit of chances being the 8-ball but i dont think imagine is, I think worst wouldve 8-balled Bingle. imagine would 8-ball worst probably

House is town and not 8-ball

I'm town and not 8-ball

[Morning Tweet]

Side note, if 2 scum are in morning/ss/house and 8-balled worst, they win

VOTE: SS

[Morning Tweet]

@House

don't auto vote worst because SS will hammer it and win if worst is town!8ball

Let's talk things thru

[Morning Tweet]

I don't think scum 8-balls SS and does nothing else with him -- they probably expect me/worst/imagine?/whoever to go for Bingle. SS would be a total guess.

No one pushed SS but me. If you trust me those are good odds he isn't 8-ball

Worst and Bingle are way more dubious

[Morning Tweet]

Rising rapidly.

Can I take this to mean you believe my push of you is suspicious and 8-ball motivated?

[Morning Tweet]

If not, I find it really hard to believe that's a real thought from you

[Morning Tweet]

I do want to note focusing on potentially arbitrary numbers rather than reads is a convenient way to absolve yourself of responsibility for picking an elim (if that makes sense)

Why is worst a better pick than SS according to your calculations, imagine?

[Morning Tweet]

Okay im leaving. DONT. LOSE

For hte love of god House don't vote yet

[Something_Smart]

Can I take this to mean you believe my push of you is suspicious and 8-ball motivated?

Imaginality's is, but same idea.

[imaginality]

VOTE: unvote to ensure there won't be a quick lim.

[imaginality]

I do want to note focusing on potentially arbitrary numbers rather than reads is a convenient way to absolve yourself of responsibility for picking an elim (if that makes sense)

Why is worst a better pick than SS according to your calculations, imagine?

They're quite close, I meant to note that. For me I feel like the slight extra chance of losing (4% based on my estimates) is worth the significant increased chance of hitting scum.

As for your comment about it being convenient, that might be true if they're purely mechanic driven numbers but in this case, I'm the one who came up with all those odds, it's very clear (to me at least) that I fully own responsibility for my vote. Happy to state that explicitly.

[House]

@House

don't auto vote worst because SS will hammer it and win if worst is town!8ball

Let's talk things thru

I'm not voting ducky.

[House]

I meant it when I said I've done enough damage this game.

Last thing I'm gonna do is put a player at E-1.

[the worst]

AM I ABOUT TO BE CONFIRMED TOWN AW YEAH

[the worst]

SS/house is a bit of a wildcard ig but i'm not sure ali + mom see the bingle vs. me 1v1 coming after bingle's d1 and 8-ball me
(not intended to offend, bingle, i think at some peripheral level third parties would probably weakly expect me to do better in a 1v1)

[Bingle]

I should effort, but RL is being a bitch. Hopefully I'll be around to catch up tomorrow.