Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[imaginality]

does imagine 8-ball wisdom after targeting Wisdom D1

i mean imagine didn't end on wisdom d1 nor started with wisdom d2 so probably i guess

I went after Wisdom from the start of D2 (albeit RL kept me from getting my teeth into D2 for 24 hours).
Aside from one post asking a clarification question of Taly, my next post #524 was voting Wisdom. (Worth noting that Alisae had been replaced by that point.)

From my point of view I was suspicious of Wisdom consistently, got sidetracked by Alisae's reaction, then since she got replaced I kept up my pressure on Wisdom while watching to see what Alisae's replacement was like.

[Morning Tweet]

I think I had a dream we eliminated SS, unfortunately i do not recall what the flip was

does imagine 8-ball wisdom after targeting Wisdom D1

i mean imagine didn't end on wisdom d1 nor started with wisdom d2 so probably i guess

I went after Wisdom from the start of D2 (albeit RL kept me from getting my teeth into D2 for 24 hours).
Aside from one post asking a clarification question of Taly, my next post #524 was voting Wisdom. (Worth noting that Alisae had been replaced by that point.)

From my point of view I was suspicious of Wisdom consistently, got sidetracked by Alisae's reaction, then since she got replaced I kept up my pressure on Wisdom while watching to see what Alisae's replacement was like.

Oh, I see -- I got you mixed up with someone else and you had a bit of a late start.

Out of curiosity, would you 8-ball Wisdom as scum?

[Bingle]

fwiw scum!me still needs to acknowledge that he's in trouble and either

- divert attention off the 1v1 and

NGL, this seems like exactly what ducks has done. I don't really think my play today and yesterday is different at a me level. I am pushing ducks. I was pushing ducks. Largely over the same things, although I have brought up additional issues today as they've cropped up. The main difference in my play yesterday and today is MT giving me the time of day, but I don't see why that would lead to duckytown dropping his deathtunnel on me.

OTOH, ducky being set up to 1v1 me and then suddenly not having the support to see my elimination through and staring at his own instead going "Well akshually Bingle is bleeding town today" seems like a great move to not get limmed as scum. Maybe I'm confbiasing, but the reevaluation and back off definitely reads more like an "Oh shit" than a legitimate reconsideration of a read.

So to all those interested parties: why do you think duck is town here?

[Bingle]

Why would scum be pushing Alisae out of the gate on D2?

Why would they not be?

[imaginality]

@MT:

D1 I would likely just defer to my scumbuddy since I haven't played with most players on this list before. So if it were my choice alone my pick would essentially have been random but I don't think choosing purely randomly is the smartest play for scum. As scum I like wifom fun so I would have encouraged my partner to try to out-guess the town.

For D2 if I were scum and feeling defensive I would have gone with me as the 8-ball since I was coming under pressure in D1. Unless I was buddies with Alisae in which case I'd want to 8-ball her for similar reasons.

If I was feeling bolder however, I would have put the 8-ball on someone like Momrangal D2. She could easily have come under pressure D2. Choosing Wisdom D2 and continuing my push on Wisdom, I think would have seemed too risky/blatant for me to take that approach as scum.

[Bingle]

Do you value scum not being able to try and WIFOM you over helping us not lose Xylo?

Yes.

Also it's probably not xylo.

Helping us elim scum and ideally avoid hitting the 8-ball seems like a better way to deny scum the chance to WIFOM you than not sharing your reads. One fewer scum means half the amount of sneakiness to sift through tomorrow.

Just gonna comment on this whole train of thought as a whole despite it being a whole thing with MT/SS/imagine: obfuscating reads here seems kinda dumb. If we eliminate scum we live to see another day and potentially score another mislim. If we eliminate non8balltown the person the scumteam 8ball doesn't matter anymore, because any town elim loses us the game. If we eliminate town8ball the game is over. Hiding reads so that scum is less effective at guessing tomorrow's 8ball is incredibly backasswards here, and it's weird that this has persisted as long as it has.

[Morning Tweet]

fwiw scum!me still needs to acknowledge that he's in trouble and either

- divert attention off the 1v1 and :pray:

NGL, this seems like exactly what ducks has done. I don't really think my play today and yesterday is different at a me level. I am pushing ducks. I was pushing ducks. Largely over the same things, although I have brought up additional issues today as they've cropped up. The main difference in my play yesterday and today is MT giving me the time of day, but I don't see why that would lead to duckytown dropping his deathtunnel on me.

OTOH, ducky being set up to 1v1 me and then suddenly not having the support to see my elimination through and staring at his own instead going "Well akshually Bingle is bleeding town today" seems like a great move to not get limmed as scum. Maybe I'm confbiasing, but the reevaluation and back off definitely reads more like an "Oh shit" than a legitimate reconsideration of a read.

So to all those interested parties: why do you think duck is town here?

I suppose I am curious about duckie's sudden reversal that he misremembered slightly or a lot. His main saving grace is that I *do* think you're more or less bleeding town

I was expecting worst to all-in on you or me or both and then we were gonna 1v1 and it was gonna be cool but then he did the polar opposite of that and locktowned you and I, so.

You're right that worstie's reconsideration in of itself shouldn't be a townread but it was enough to deflect me back into having to think about things more. I suppose if he elaborated more on why you and I are town that'd be neat but I'm not sure if he'll have anything more to say

[Morning Tweet]

That does remind me, I'm pretty sure scum was getting ready to use at least me/House to lim Bingle and win today. Soyeah, it's a fair enough strategy to see "Oh no that's not going to work weewooweewoo plan B bus/mislim imagine"

[Morning Tweet]

@MT:

D1 I would likely just defer to my scumbuddy since I haven't played with most players on this list before. So if it were my choice alone my pick would essentially have been random but I don't think choosing purely randomly is the smartest play for scum. As scum I like wifom fun so I would have encouraged my partner to try to out-guess the town.

For D2 if I were scum and feeling defensive I would have gone with me as the 8-ball since I was coming under pressure in D1. Unless I was buddies with Alisae in which case I'd want to 8-ball her for similar reasons.

If I was feeling bolder however, I would have put the 8-ball on someone like Momrangal D2. She could easily have come under pressure D2. Choosing Wisdom D2 and continuing my push on Wisdom, I think would have seemed too risky/blatant for me to take that approach as scum.

Interesting, i wasn't under the impression you were in danger D2. What made you feel that way? (I promise I'm asking for a reason)

I somewhat agree and don't think you'd choose Wisdom. It's possible, since you could hide under the guise of "Scum obviously knew I would do that and gamed me", but still.

[Bingle]

Snip

TIL: there are apparently 2.1 8 balls and also imaginality doesn't know how probabilities work.

I'd wager there's something like a 80% Bingle 20% SS/House split on the 8ball here. I don't think anyone expected me to gain traction on a duck push today, and the only person who might've had the opportunity to derail the obvious lim on me as scum is actively pushing away from the duckling too. I don't think MT scum really makes sense (why not shut up and let me die, winning the game?) from a universal standpoint, but even if she is somehow 5D chessing this and playing for towncred in the case I slip the yeet on my own merit I don't see her 8 balling duck.

House/SS could maybe be 8 ball based on the interactions with Wisdom looking limmable in the former case and just all around not being in the thread in the latter, but I don't think either case is likely.

But really, none of that matters, because limming not the 8ball is a stay of execution and limming scum is actively winning the game. You don't win a game by playing a "at least I don't lose right away" strategy as town.

[Bingle]

I mean he just listed me as his bottom read and also unlikely to be the 8-ball, so like...

No he didn't?

Like, yes, he said you were unlikely to be the 8 ball but he also listed both me and duck as more scummy than you.

[Morning Tweet]

Oh that's a good point I would have probably already won as scum, all I have to do is finish what I started yesterday lul

Maybe that's why duck doesn't push me

[Bingle]

Can I hammer S_S?

I want to see if Skittles really are candy-filled.

I would have asked to hammer the worst, but I'm allergic to duck blood.

I think someone on the internet told me something about skittles tasting like rotten flesh. On the other hand, duck is too greasy and not a particularly good meat, so you're not really missing anything there.

oh I'm a vegetarian! wanna be best friends, after we settle this small matter of your problematic wincon?

Most of my food-animals are vegetarian, does that count? I mean... I'm assuming. I don't actually know if I eat more cow or pig for sure, but I feel pretty safe in the assumption that cow+chicken+deer > pig, and that is the bulk of my animal diet.

[Morning Tweet]

Seriously Bingle you make it too easy, hammering Wisdom and almost hammering Ali in the scummiest ways physically possible

Is worstie/imagine a technically possible team that's playing a bit of damage control right now? Both indicated suspicion on Bingle start of day, with worstie voting. Guess I could be wrong on SS

[Morning Tweet]

You know the way worstie/imagine are playing rn is like the only way I could think of that saves the game for that team, TBH. Maybe.

[Morning Tweet]

UNVOTE:

[Bingle]

Oh that's a good point I would have probably already won as scum, all I have to do is finish what I started yesterday lul

I mean... technically an external PoV could think we were a pair ig? But any team of MT/NotBingle just shuts up, votes Bingle, takes the W, and goes on a trip to Disneyland.

[Morning Tweet]

Well if you/me are a team I probably still kill 8!ball you

Unless we did a great prediction that momentum would swing away from you and now can just kill whoever

[Morning Tweet]

can the town in worst/ss/imagine please stand up

[Bingle]

weirdly i kinda agree, if i'd 8-balled wisdom i would absolutely start by pushing someone else then switch to him

+1

Also, ducky at some point made a comment that a 3rd party would assume he'd win the 1v1 between us and he hoped I wouldn't get offended by that. I did not. I'm not even a 3rd party and I assumed ducky would win the 1v1 between us.

[Bingle]

can the town in worst/ss/imagine please stand up

[Something_Smart]

No he didn't?

Like, yes, he said you were unlikely to be the 8 ball but he also listed both me and duck as more scummy than you.

Oh I definitely read this wrong then.

Because ironically despite Something_Smart being lower than Bingle and the worst in my individual reads

Though I mean, I don't really know how else you were supposed to read it.

[Something_Smart]

Why would they not be?

Because he wasn't the 8-ball and it was entirely plausible that he just got quicklimmed?

[Bingle]

Though I mean, I don't really know how else you were supposed to read it.

His reads list was scummiest at the top with percentages, but I can see the confusion there.

[Bingle]

Why would they not be?

Because he wasn't the 8-ball and it was entirely plausible that he just got quicklimmed?

If house is town that seems like a win/win for scum to me tbh. Either scum gets an easy elimination that doesn't blow back a lot of suspicion or scum gets to later fall back on this exact argument if they flip Wis. (I didn't start there!) If house is scum then sure, I could see that as an argument that tweet/duck aren't, but it feels like you're presupposing the read to generate the reasons. And honestly the logic applies to me as well. I started the day with a case on Duck that I had no way of knowing wouldn't be taken seriously on the back of literally no one explaining themselves about it. If I were scum, I would have run the risk of getting a duck elimination instead of a Wisdom one. And if I were scum that would still be a win for me assuming we weren't in the magical world of Bingle/Duck S/S theater, because we'd be walking into the next day with fewer townies.