Mini 2228: Isekai uPick - Endgame

[Lady Lambdadelta]

That seems... Unlikely?

But dreams generally aren't logical!

Definitely not logical, but I woke up deathly afraid of it!

lol

[Cabd]

Yikes, imagine being in this game and deathly afraid of a fringe scenario that haunts you to your core.

That would SUCK.

[GuyInFreezer]

That seems... Unlikely?

But dreams generally aren't logical!

At least in Korea we are told that dreams are usually the opposite of what happens in real life.

[Kate Bishop]

Thoughts About Gamma/Cabd

• How does he approach this playerlist?

We think his biggest perceived threat in the player list would be a Town-Cabd, with LLD and us not far behind. The way he defended Cabd and at the same time continually dissed us initially made us feel like Cabd could very well be his other partner, but it could also have been risk mitigation and setting a huge I told you so in the event Cabd was flipped. I think he also wanted to play into Cabd's marci-defense as long as he could. It, unfortunately for him, became a detrimental stance once Cabd full claimed what his informed role actually informed him of.

He interacted a fair bit with Cabd, but nowhere near the level he did with us.

At one point, it looked like he was going to pivot away from Cabd. This is one of the interactions that look like they could be scum/scum. If Gamma knew Cabd was town, or knew that scum-Cabd's role pm mentioned Shiro/Sora, it leads to him knowing that the informed bit was going to be validated eventually.

Here's another indicator that he was moving toward a scum-Cabd read. This time explicitly scum with us. This gave us hives at the time. He had already taken some swipes at wheme's role/cabd's informed suggesting that wheme was scum with Cabd. a few posts later he'd dropped that entirely.

His reasoning for locking Cabd-town initially.

Speaking of Cabd, in 633 you reference your reaction to ManateeGal as being a reaction test, right? Were you expecting anyone in particular to react a certain way, or was it geared towards getting a reaction from anyone in particular?

yes and no!

Everything I do, I try to extract max value out of. I did try to shape my objections similar to what had hit the thread re: LLD's role but they were also genuinely my thoughts at the time, in that I struggle to see how this setup will be set up around what is effectively double day. Generally speaking, I try to ascribe to mods that they won't make a single player or role have so much agency that it denies others theirs completely, but that would be the case here if Manatee and LLD are both town.

okay this was like, THE post that made me townlock cabd. Something about the way the extracting value was discussed just rung out as town to me

It's definitely becoming a larger problem. I noticed is mostly with bell in the last game, but "You aren't allowed to scum read me lol and it's a pox on your house if you do" is completely against the idea of the game of mafia. People get to live inside their heads and know their role PMs but like, you can't expect everyone to have that luxury.

Being wrong is a thing that happens. By definition, a LOT in a game like this.

At the risk of making your hair stand on end for what is explicitly a blatant buddying attempt: Wanna just be in thread neighbors for a while? I for one am open to hearing about your take on fferysci. As the game that shall not be named showed, my reads aren't ALWAYS xenoblade tier perfect. Maybe I'm missing something major that you're seeing.

this one I think also helped

devil's bargain

In fairness, last time this happened was the Unwnd Large?

this wasn't really a conscious factor I think but I could definitely see me having registered on some level that this makes sense more from town pov than scum? Like it seems cabd interpreted what LLD was indicating as "I might be getting lured to my death again" vs. "I might be getting snowed by you for choosing to accept your olive branch"

these are all the posts I can identify within where I'm pretty sure I got that read thread-location wise

Thoughts about Gamma/Dunn

• Gamma's interactions with/about Dunn were fairly minimal before the ssbm tracker guilty

I don't remember if this was the consensus view on Manatee -- I think it was (might check later). The player he quoted and agreed with was partner-Dunn.

Here's another Dunn-initiated interaction: his reply is basically a nothingburger. I wonder why he decided to downplay the dot-dot-dot post

{Cabd, Rhiannon}
{Something_Smart}
{Kate Bishop} {Dunnstral, GuyInFreezer}
{ssbm_Kyouko, ManateeGal}
{Lukewarm}
{WhemeStar}
{Titus*, DrippingGoofball}

This is probably where my heads at rn. The top townreads are basically locked for the duration of the game

Two observations: the two players I think Gamma would feel were the biggest threats to him were in his never touching townpile. He had Dunn in a "maybe town" group. His bottom three were all town. Thinking about where his other partner would be in this list.

Spoiler:

Kinda looks like Lukewarm? Dunn was a near-universal townread on Day 1 and without ssbm's tracker guilty on him, Dunn was in our POE day 2 mostly because I had several players who looked more town coming into day 2, though his play was in many ways exactly what we expected from town-Dunn. I think this shows that I primarily tone-read Dunn, and I need to get that tendency checked out.

His interaction with Dunn was mostly Dunn poking at him. I think Dunn was trying to set up some distance between them, at least initially. It didn't really work

This one stands out, though.

And [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/vi ... 4]this one, where Dunn asked why Gamma assumed that only scum could kill GiF while he was out of the thread.[/url]

and a post where Dunn poked at Gamma for not claiming in a timely fashion. And more of the same, just before he claimed.

His claim/solve:

I am Rem Galleu from How Not to Summon a Demon Lord, and I am a Doombringer. What that means is if ever I die to being voted out, the mafia get a bonus kill that they can use immediately, and they can use it on ANYONE, regardless of what might otherwise prevent their death. THIS IS WHY GIF IS PRACTICALLY CONFTOWN TO ME, because my role basically has to be implemented as counterplay to his. I also think LLD is town because of how our roles seem to mesh, with LLD being a tool they can use while alive and me being a tool they can use via my death. I had thought Kate to be probably town for the same logic I was applying to GiF but that ended up being a red herring, and I don’t believe I made things clear enough about my GiF stance that it could be inferred I had the “ability” I have, so it’s not town-indicative that they denied being bulletproof (which if I thought they could have parsed my role bit I was alluding to, in that case they could have let me be mistaken and falsely trusted them).
I also felt like my role ran counter to manatee's for some time, because having what looked like the ability to vote someone out all on his own felt a bit incongruous with my role, but that fact it functioned as a vig shot explains how they could avoid interacting
I think someone asked how my character resulted in marcistar sending the false positive to Cabd, and I think I get why, she used the word sky inadvertently which caused cabd to home in on her and try to see if marci's flavor matched what he was looking for, and his question just so happened to kinda resemble my character so marci gave an affirmative response. This is where my attempts to create a solve have hit a snag, though. when I was writing this part of the post up initially, my solve was kate/wheme/cabd, but that doesn't make sense with cabd seeming to be genuinely trying to find who shiro was. that basically leave me with some combination of kate/cabd/kyouko/dunnstral but like kyouko and dunnstral don't feel like scum theater here, I guess kate/cabd/dunnstral works but it just doesn't sit well with me on a gut level (out of kyouko/dunnstral I'm more inclined to believe kyouko is town)

He has Cabd and us in his solve, with either wheme or dunn. This is one of the peripheral reasons we've scumread Cabd,

BUT: does he put both his partners in his solve, when one is definitely going down and he's teetering on the edge of the abyss? I'm not as sure after going back through his iso.

And approx 500 posts later he's back to a townread on Cabd.

Another dunn-initiated interaction, this time about his claim. And followup

Gamma Interactions with Luke

Questions Manatee's townread of Luke

On page 163 he tries to run interference and shut down Luke's questioning LLD about the part of her role she had strongly hinted at but hadn't claimed. This interaction is puzzling.

• Gamma in general/me bitching about his interactions with us.

His interactions with us are mostly icky but some of them are interesting in retrospect. He seemed to want to punish us for being bad. Same approach to SSBM. It took him a long time to straight up call us scum for our S_S push. He was more pissed about us pushing him and kept saying we should have learned from our bad S_S push and not done "the same thing" to him. He used our push on S_S to discredit us for pressuring him about his refusal to claim. At some point he scumread both us and ssbm for the same thing -- pushing S_S. gawd he was awkward. I assume he mostly intended to kick up a lot dust to obscure the guilty on Dunn, and maybe to draw that elim away from Dunn. and also to invoke the governor thing earlier. Dat hedge though.

Another Dunn thing that might be significant

My reads have changed a bit

Here is food for thought on the reset: LLD has not done anything super town this game beyond talking about their unproven role

And there is 0 appetite for even looking there this day phase, even while LLD does no reeval this game phase beyond early sheeping against cabd and then... never acknowledging kate's shifting opinions there.

This was kinda out of the blue, well after ssbm had outed her track guilty. at that point players were a bit up in the air about whether to elim Dunn first or Gamma. What was his objective?

[GuyInFreezer]

This was kinda out of the blue, well after ssbm had outed her track guilty. at that point players were a bit up in the air about whether to elim Dunn first or Gamma. What was his objective?

I'll also remind you that the first thing Dunn posted in the dead PT was rooting for LLD. He claimed that it was in neutral way, and then feigned surprise on me being there in the very next post.

[Kate Bishop]

Did you mention that earlier? I missed it.

[Cabd]

Soooo, where are we going with this?

Other than in circles.

[Kate Bishop]

Soooo, where are we going with this?

Other than in circles.

I have another wall to write up.

I think I've broken my circle, at least to some extent.

How about you?

[GuyInFreezer]

I think if anything I think LLD is town more now.
My reread is keep getting delayed by rl :busy:

[Kate Bishop]

I don't think it's LLD because Dunn joked about supporting LLD feigning to not know that I was in the dead PT. It's WIFOM but ppl tend to not put their last scumbuddy there as a WIFOM because it is dangerous and there is 0 reason to take that risk.

found it.

This is pretty much what I thought when I read you post about it on this page.

[Cabd]

Soooo, where are we going with this?

Other than in circles.

I have another wall to write up.

I think I've broken my circle, at least to some extent.

How about you?

I still struggle to think of how it cannot be luke.

I guess I'm mostly waiting for the rest of you all to pick a god(dess/flugel), and pray.

[jjh927]

VC3.1

Player	Votes	Voters
Cabd	2	Cabd, Lukewarm
Not Voting	---	ssbm_Kyouko, Lady Lambdadelta, Kate Bishop, GuyInFreezer

Felt like I should probably do a votecount even without a pagetop given it's been a while, although I don't think there's been much need.
Friendly reminder that you can invoke rule 15 and ask me any questions relating to isekai anime so I seem less absent from the thread when I'm not doing votecounts. As ever, I'm watching all the seasonals from this season, of which so far we've had the first episodes of restaurant to another world season 2, cour 2 of mushoku tensei, and the fruit of evolution.

With 6 alive it takes 4 to eliminate.

The day will end in (expired on 2021-10-14 00:00:00), or when an elimination is achieved.

[Kate Bishop]

I ran into this post doing some research about how Day 1 played out. It doesn't really fit with what I'm looking for, so I'm going to post it now. Dunn was fairly well townread at the point where he posted this, so I thought it would be interesting to look at the players that flipped and the players that are still alive. He had Marci/Gamma slot in second tier town. Of his 5 lowest reads, 3 have flipped town. I think his other partner is maybe more likely to be lower than marci here than in the top tier. I feel like he underestimated GiF's ability to obvtown at this point. And I feel like he was explicitly not going after players who he knows tend to grab leadership, but leaving room to change that stance (the part about not being out of scumrange.)

{Dunn.......Cabd, GIF}
{Rhiannon, DGB(?)} DGB feels right on this tier but it's not as solid other reads to this point
{Wheme, marci.......manatee} niggles about manatee's role, but eh
{Unwnd} true null
{Luke}
{ssbm, Toog(?)}

---------------------

This is synced, but my reads are awfully fluid.

Toog's in flux. I feel like he's doing AI stuff now, maybe? Most of his posts from that LLD sus onward haven't sat right. I have a feeling Nacho would tell me this is town toog, but I never totally nailed down what makes town toog town to Nacho.

Maybe ssbm is where I'll want to vote.

[LLD, Cabd, Kate Bishop]
[Manatee, Unwnd, GIF, Marci]
[Wheme, Luke, DGB]
[SSBM, Toog]

With the caveat that I don't think anyone in the top tier is super far out of scum range, these are early feelings mainly based on tone and claims.
Cautiously putting Unwnd and Marci above null for unexplained reasons

I don't have any sort of feeling about Wheme//Luke right now, so they're at null

I didn't like the SSBM pop-in and only talking about the claims
Toog claiming to be confirmable doesn't do anything for me.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Okay, got 8 days left. Been thinking and I still feel like Cabd or GiF are the correct lim here. Guess I'm going in circles too

[Kate Bishop]

@Luke

Can you talk about your read of us and what has shaped it over the course of the game?

[Cabd]

restaurant to another world season 2

Aka "Fuck you now I'm hungry and want cheesecake"

[GuyInFreezer]

I ran into this post doing some research about how Day 1 played out. It doesn't really fit with what I'm looking for, so I'm going to post it now. Dunn was fairly well townread at the point where he posted this, so I thought it would be interesting to look at the players that flipped and the players that are still alive. He had Marci/Gamma slot in second tier town. Of his 5 lowest reads, 3 have flipped town. I think his other partner is maybe more likely to be lower than marci here than in the top tier. I feel like he underestimated GiF's ability to obvtown at this point. And I feel like he was explicitly not going after players who he knows tend to grab leadership, but leaving room to change that stance (the part about not being out of scumrange.)

{Dunn.......Cabd, GIF}
{Rhiannon, DGB(?)} DGB feels right on this tier but it's not as solid other reads to this point
{Wheme, marci.......manatee} niggles about manatee's role, but eh
{Unwnd} true null
{Luke}
{ssbm, Toog(?)}

---------------------

This is synced, but my reads are awfully fluid.

Toog's in flux. I feel like he's doing AI stuff now, maybe? Most of his posts from that LLD sus onward haven't sat right. I have a feeling Nacho would tell me this is town toog, but I never totally nailed down what makes town toog town to Nacho.

Maybe ssbm is where I'll want to vote.

[LLD, Cabd, Kate Bishop]
[Manatee, Unwnd, GIF, Marci]
[Wheme, Luke, DGB]
[SSBM, Toog]

With the caveat that I don't think anyone in the top tier is super far out of scum range, these are early feelings mainly based on tone and claims.
Cautiously putting Unwnd and Marci above null for unexplained reasons

I don't have any sort of feeling about Wheme//Luke right now, so they're at null

I didn't like the SSBM pop-in and only talking about the claims
Toog claiming to be confirmable doesn't do anything for me.

I think his other partner is maybe more likely to be lower than marci here than in the top tier.

So this points to Luke right

[GuyInFreezer]

I hate the quoting system sometimes

[GuyInFreezer]

Like I read Luke’s self-towncase. It does make sense in some degree.

However though

I townread Cabd
I townread Kate because why would they bis Gamma
I townread LLD for reasons described before
I townread Kyouko because why would she bus Dunn

[Lukewarm]

@Luke

Can you talk about your read of us and what has shaped it over the course of the game?

Uh, sure.

Day 1:
I had you shifting town very slightly early on, because you guys looked very much like you were fairly aggressively sorting, but that was pretty tentative, because I know you are both pretty good players. At the time I had much stronger town reads and much stronger scum reads, so I was not very focused on you, but that was where you guys were sitting a bit in the background noise of it all [Town lean]

Then you guys started slipping back down in reads, because I started seeing you guys as having some pretty strong partner associative with my two strongest scum reads (toog and dgb), it looked to me like you were positioning yourself to save one of them without looking like you were saving them. Like, you were focusing on leading a push on someone else (and it did not help that the person you were leading the push on was me). The stance that you took with the 3 of us, I could see as you protecting either one: trying to save dgb from Manatee, because you were pushing for me and toog to die that day over it, or setting yourself up to save toog, because you thought manatee was getting ready to kill dgb and once that happened you were gonna lead into me over toog for the last vote. So, you I could see you as a partner to either one, so at that point I did not trust you. [Down to null]

I also did not like my back and forth exchange with ffery. Especially the one where you asked what my excuse was for not interacting with you 1240 [down to scum lean]

And then, you shifted back up to a slight town lean before the end of day 1, but there was not like One Thing that made that transition. I am not currently iso diving you, so this is just the vague things I remember from Day 1 that moved you. I remember you stopped trying to kill me, when killing me was still kinda on the table, which made me feel like you were actually trying to sort me. Also, I started thinking that dgb could be town, so the way you protected it started looking more pro-town. And just in general, our interactions felt better, idk. So you made it up to [null town]

But then you lead the SS elim. Which I felt like that wagon was icky.

Day 2:

At the start of Day 2, my scum reads had both flipped town, so I needed to reevaluate the table.

I was most strongly scum reading Gamma and Wheme. At the time, I had conflicting narratives of the scum team, depending on which of those scum reads I started from.

When I focused on Gamma, I had a narrative in my head where you deciphered Cabd's stuff Katniss, and then you fed the line to Marci to get her town through day 1. Like, of the table I thought that the combined ffery+notty slot would be most likely to be able to do that (and I kinda did not see cabd+gamma, because the way gamma walked out of the clear). But, that would make it hard for wheme to fit into the Gamma+kate team because of him actually claiming the Katniss slot.

So, on the other hand I had a Wheme team, which, when I worked past my bout of paranoia, always had cabd. which then did not involve you feeding a line to gamma anymore.

I was struggling to find a full team, it felt like I had too many pieces, and they were not all able to fit together. This was supposed to be "luke's thoughts on Kate" but you got all tied up in that confusion. But I kinda landed on one of you or Cabd were scum, but was unsure which.

I decided that the rest would be easier to sort through if I could just have a concrete starting point, so I wanted to just sift through Wheme and Gamma, figure out which one was more likely scum, and get the flip before I had to work through the rest of the lobby. I settled on it being Gamma, and I started wanting Gamma to die.

Then we had a surprise tracker guilty. And not just the tracker result, a lot of Dunn's positioning around it and his claim felt off, so suddenly he shot up from no where as a kill priority.

But, I was worried that a Dunn flip would help me sort through my thoughts on the rest of the table, less then a Gamma flip would. So, I prioritized killing Gamma first, and voted him. But then Gamma looked very, very bad after that, and also very very much like Dunn's partner. He was confimed scum in my eyes, so his flip was no longer needed for that, and so killing Dunn first was fine. Gamma would just die the next day.

So, I finally had a solid scum team in my head to look at the other people. with that lens. And yeah, you guys look pretty town in a scum!Dunn + scum!Gamma world. Because otherwise, it means that you guys walked into maybe-melo, and double bussed. And also, Gamma would have had to have walked in to maybe-melo, and decided that his number one push of the day would be on his partner (you).

And then the governor day happened, and you are The Reason Gamma died. So that pushed you into Town Lock territory.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

*clicks on page 1*

[Kate Bishop]

@Luke

Can you talk about your read of us and what has shaped it over the course of the game?

Spoiler: repliy in spoilers because long

Uh, sure.

Day 1:
I had you shifting town very slightly early on, because you guys looked very much like you were fairly aggressively sorting, but that was pretty tentative, because I know you are both pretty good players. At the time I had much stronger town reads and much stronger scum reads, so I was not very focused on you, but that was where you guys were sitting a bit in the background noise of it all [Town lean]

Then you guys started slipping back down in reads, because I started seeing you guys as having some pretty strong partner associative with my two strongest scum reads (toog and dgb), it looked to me like you were positioning yourself to save one of them without looking like you were saving them. Like, you were focusing on leading a push on someone else (and it did not help that the person you were leading the push on was me). The stance that you took with the 3 of us, I could see as you protecting either one: trying to save dgb from Manatee, because you were pushing for me and toog to die that day over it, or setting yourself up to save toog, because you thought manatee was getting ready to kill dgb and once that happened you were gonna lead into me over toog for the last vote. So, you I could see you as a partner to either one, so at that point I did not trust you. [Down to null]

I also did not like my back and forth exchange with ffery. Especially the one where you asked what my excuse was for not interacting with you 1240 [down to scum lean]

And then, you shifted back up to a slight town lean before the end of day 1, but there was not like One Thing that made that transition. I am not currently iso diving you, so this is just the vague things I remember from Day 1 that moved you. I remember you stopped trying to kill me, when killing me was still kinda on the table, which made me feel like you were actually trying to sort me. Also, I started thinking that dgb could be town, so the way you protected it started looking more pro-town. And just in general, our interactions felt better, idk. So you made it up to [null town]

But then you lead the SS elim. Which I felt like that wagon was icky.

Day 2:

At the start of Day 2, my scum reads had both flipped town, so I needed to reevaluate the table.

I was most strongly scum reading Gamma and Wheme. At the time, I had conflicting narratives of the scum team, depending on which of those scum reads I started from.

When I focused on Gamma, I had a narrative in my head where you deciphered Cabd's stuff Katniss, and then you fed the line to Marci to get her town through day 1. Like, of the table I thought that the combined ffery+notty slot would be most likely to be able to do that (and I kinda did not see cabd+gamma, because the way gamma walked out of the clear). But, that would make it hard for wheme to fit into the Gamma+kate team because of him actually claiming the Katniss slot.

So, on the other hand I had a Wheme team, which, when I worked past my bout of paranoia, always had cabd. which then did not involve you feeding a line to gamma anymore.

I was struggling to find a full team, it felt like I had too many pieces, and they were not all able to fit together. This was supposed to be "luke's thoughts on Kate" but you got all tied up in that confusion. But I kinda landed on one of you or Cabd were scum, but was unsure which.

I decided that the rest would be easier to sort through if I could just have a concrete starting point, so I wanted to just sift through Wheme and Gamma, figure out which one was more likely scum, and get the flip before I had to work through the rest of the lobby. I settled on it being Gamma, and I started wanting Gamma to die.

Then we had a surprise tracker guilty. And not just the tracker result, a lot of Dunn's positioning around it and his claim felt off, so suddenly he shot up from no where as a kill priority.

But, I was worried that a Dunn flip would help me sort through my thoughts on the rest of the table, less then a Gamma flip would. So, I prioritized killing Gamma first, and voted him. But then Gamma looked very, very bad after that, and also very very much like Dunn's partner. He was confimed scum in my eyes, so his flip was no longer needed for that, and so killing Dunn first was fine. Gamma would just die the next day.

So, I finally had a solid scum team in my head to look at the other people. with that lens. And yeah, you guys look pretty town in a scum!Dunn + scum!Gamma world. Because otherwise, it means that you guys walked into maybe-melo, and double bussed. And also, Gamma would have had to have walked in to maybe-melo, and decided that his number one push of the day would be on his partner (you).

And then the governor day happened, and you are The Reason Gamma died. So that pushed you into Town Lock territory.

Thanks for laying that out.

My big takeaway is that you were teamsolving on day 1. Is this something you usually do in games? I hadn't really noticed it, even in this game, until you laid out your thought process.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

hey friends! gonna claim cos its kind of important. im a doublevoter who kills a random townie if their second vote isnt on the lim wagon. i cannot move the second vote after placing it so i will probably be the one to hammer from here on out.

im super excited to play w everyone!!!

bringing this 2 new page just in case

I abjectly refuse to allow you to hammer anything.

You can have the second to last vote and we can coordinate that. But I refuse to allow you to hammer.

do you have a specific reasoning for this? if so please outline it

I do! I think you may be scum using my role claim as cover to do this play, where your role really cares about being the hammering vote on wagons to gain power.

It's a minor thought, maybe less than 10 or even 5 percent.

But if it IS true, it's always scum, so I refuse to allow you to hammer. Once we decide who dies, you can have 2nd to last vote, with your unmovable vote. But not hammer.

Shouldn't make any difference to you, right?

I'm taking notes down but I dont think scum ever makes this post. I am also reaffirming my Luke TR as I read.

@Rhiannon, I'm having a very hard time seeing Luke as scum. Where does your scumread on him come from?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

not sure if I'm voting atm so
UNVOTE:

[Kate Bishop]

Like I read Luke’s self-towncase. It does make sense in some degree.

However though

I townread Cabd
I townread Kate because why would they bis Gamma
I townread LLD for reasons described before
I townread Kyouko because why would she bus Dunn

Ok you know our ongoing angst re our Cabd read. We're trying to do a full reset and reevaluation. If I ignore the frustration about being repeatedly shut down when I've tried to work with him, I feel like scum-Cabd would have made more actual effort to turn our read around. He has very explicitly not cooperated so many times. In some players that would be scum-indicative. In Cabd, not so much. Maybe that never-to-be hood, given his claimed role, would have helped. Or maybe that would have just added more reasons to be wary of him. Depending on how today goes, this might be important for day 4.