newbie 2080: correct statements (this is over)

[Roden]

Spangled is getting townread for a high post count when a vast majority are asking questions and then responding to those questions

after

someone answered.

mate, I did that

once

sorry, that’s just such a silly misrep

It's really not but allow me to elaborate and clarify.

The emphasis was supposed to be that a huge chunk your post count is you asking questions. The italics were there to show that you add back and forth with your responses which also brings up your content size. I meant it as a "but wait there's more" kinda way. When writing that last part 110 and 142 came to mind. But again, that wasn't supposed to be the real argument.

You are being townread by content size in 160, 189, and I don't think it's a stretch to add 196 by 1/3 of the participants. I'm critical of that because i fail to see how "sheer content" is a townleaning thing.

For me, it's a combination of what I said before that high post counts are generally +town (more posts from scum mean more chances to slip up and make mistakes), but also I've seen other players who ask a lot of questions as town and get scum read for it. In Spangled's case though I can kind of see what you mean. He's mainly prodding others to generate content rather than just generating content himself, so it's kind of a misrep to say he's town from "sheer content" when a lot of the content isn't actually his.

I'll most likely reevaluate my town lean on him as we approach EoD.

[Roden]

Going by post count at the time you TR'd me, I didn't have much content yet but I've been locktown'd for less, so it's nothing that pings me atm. I'd only be suspicious of it if I was a major scum read, I've said this in other games but scum love to town read me and defend me when I look scummy to get that sweet town cred if/when I flip green.

Tbh I'm more interested in who you scum read since Spangled is a town lean for you now.

I'll get to your question -- sorry I missed it. But I got the impression the first game I was in with you that you were LHF. I found out in other games that you are a strong player, so I don't know if the LHF game was larping or just an off-game. My guess is it was just a game you weren't into.

Spangled I'm back and forth on. Facebones leaning scum. Val leaning scum (very lightly bc of little content and I don't remember what the predecessor did)

Radio Buzz right? I really wanted to get into that one, but I think it was a combination of over-extending myself into too many games at once at the time and just generally finding it hard to break into the town core that game. I probably would've stuck around if it had my full attention and I regret that I never got to really get into it, it was a really interesting concept tbh.

I'm also pretty back and forth on Spangled, I want to let him simmer before I make any hard reads on him. Facebones just doesn't have enough content for me to have a read on him personally. I need more time for Val too, his predecessor never posted though so he's basically just a late arrival.

[Roden]

Not gonna quote Val's posts since he walled a lot, but I'm getting the same vibes from him that I've gotten from his town games. Though Val, what makes you so confident you've already caught the scum pair? Because I've seen you tunnel both town and scum, but it's usually been an individual rather than the scum team as a whole.

[Facebones]

Do people think one or both scum were against Cook's plan?

So you have Cook as town?

I do not. I'm suspicious of both, and think one of them has to be mafia
The game Roden pointed out where Cook did pre much the exact same thing i.e. tracker claiming is always on my mind
I think there might be a couple of slight differences? Some things Spangled has said seem disingenuous to me and I'm not discounting the possibility of him being scum wanting to out a town PR

Both being scum seems way too easy

[Facebones]

It'd be a surprise if both scum were against the plan or apathetic towards it

[Facebones]

Correct. I am suggesting it's possible Spangled is able to hold such a strong, and in my opinion unjustified, townread on Facebones because he actually knows for a fact FB is town because he ain't in the scumthread with him.

Haha, right?
It is quite unjustified, that's what I thought

[Facebones]

After articulating my issues, I'm now a little bit more confident in seeing a red flip with respect to Spangled than I am Cook, although it is close, and I do think

it's possible that's just the scumpair

, gg.

Though Val, what makes you so confident you've already caught the scum pair?

What makes you think Val is "so confident" he's got the scum pair? I'm confused

[Val89]

Val, what makes you so confident you've already caught the scum pair?

I'm not 100% confident, but I've got exactly two slots that are giving me pretty heavy scumvibes, I'm seeing a few little pings that suggest to me they might come as a pair (see the stated concern Spangled is showing specifically for how reads are evolving on Cook I refered to in 230, and how the initial, and to my mind incorrect, TR concensus that was building around Spangled before I came in was driven by Cook, for examples) and I don't know what other conclusion I can reasonably draw. The fact that it seems just all a little TOO easy is giving me pause right now.

Cook in particular, I think I have to missing something. I know I've drawn a little bit of flack for focusing on the 'strategy', given that it clearly isn't being implemented, but the mere fact of it's proposal in the again is the issue at hand, to my mind. It isn't every game you have someone representing they have some sort of setup breaking strat, and Cook is basically playing an exact replicia of her scum game in 2075, and like, why on earth would you do that, as either alignment, frankly?

Very early on, Spangled says this:

so I guess actually, maybe townpoints if they have a decent strategy, scum equity if it just straight up sucks

The fact of the matter is that Cook outlined this exact strategy to her scum buddy in 2075, and it's very clearly +scum; which I would suggest qualifies as "straight up sucks". She says it's "a modification of a superplaying strategy I made for Town.", and we can suppose there is probably no reason for her to lie at that point to her scum buddy in a private thread, and there exists a

modification

of the strategy outlined that she thinks is actually +town.

I've asked for others to put eyes on it again and find what the modification between 2075 and this game is, and noone has done so. Cook

herself

has posted to the thread in the meantime and could have very easily said "actually, Val, here is what is different" and cleared the whole thing up, and she didn't. That suggests strongly that there isn't any modification - even though we didn't bite, we were openly being asked by Cook to run a +scum strat.

So, the question becomes why, and why be so blatent about it? Something doesn't compute, and the only way I can square it is that Cook, having put the work in coming up with this cleaver strat that can be presented as being +town, but is actually +scum as described in that PT, has decided that by Jove if they aren't going to get at least one scum win out of it, even if they have to run the same game again the very next time they get a red PM. The fact that I am sitting here thinking "too scummy to be scum" is part of the advantage.

I've already outlined my case against Spangled in a fair bit of detail. You are correct, Roden, in that I have on occasion tunneled town; but I have also been right on more than one occasion and I think until I have a better reason to doubt it than "this is too easy", I'm going to have to trust my gut. Perhaps not quite the pair, but there has to be at least one scum there, I think, and I wouldn't be altogether

SHOCKED

if this did turn out to be a game we look back on in a few days and think "Wow, hero solved by page 11".

[Val89]

The game Roden pointed out where Cook did pre much the exact same thing i.e. tracker claiming is always on my mind
I think there might be a couple of slight differences?

If you think there is any differences, however slight, you need to point them out. That speaks directly to the heart of the matter and might well change things.

I don't see any. What have you seen?

[Facebones]

I wouldn't be altogether SHOCKED if this did turn out to be a game we look back on in a few days and think "Wow, hero solved by page 11".

The ego on this man!

[Facebones]

The change I was thinking of was https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12928671

VOTE: No elimination.

vs the one in this game

never no eliminate d1.

[Facebones]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12936258

If we no-eliminate, that will likely put us at 2 scum 6 town and we can get a confirm townie tomorrow.

This one as well as scum trying to convince people no elim D1 is a good strategy

She's changed her tune a little bit
Granted she might've just pushed the no elim back to D2 instead of D1

[Val89]

Yes, but while Cook voted for Nolim in 2075, the strategy that was outlined both publically, and in the scum thread didn't require a nolim - if fact, the post preceding the one you linked first is very clear that the expected outcome on D1 was in fact the mislim of a townie.

If you read what was posted to the scum thread, the strategy is +scum because it magnifies the impact of the little bit of extra setup information that scum have over town - which column we are in - by inducing the town PRs to reveal which row we are in early, and doing so in such a way that town

thinks

that a) that's good for town when it isn't, and b) as a result, the person doing the proposal is townlocked. If town

don’t

buy it, then they just get b) out of the deal.

As an aside, that makes this...

if people townread me for posting an organized plan for town to play off of that’s fine, i put forth the strategy so town wins, not so i get locktowned.

...a bare faced lie, because that's exactly what was supposed to happen, as well as (if executed) clear the way for the scumbuddy to either convincingly fake claim cop or tracker, or trade the buddy for both town PRs N2 and N3.

None of the above is predicated on a nolim. If she had convinced town to give her one while also getting townlocked, that would have just been a little bonus. The strategy wasn't followed in 2075, but Cook did get widely townread for suggesting it. The whole thing fell apart because someone replaced in D2 close to the deadline in a stall, and opened by saying they didn't buy the strategy: "Why haven't you guys voted off the person whose strategy was literally "role fish"?" and basically the 5 hour time pressure convinced enough townies to switch to Cook to seemingly avoid the default nolim. She got unlucky in that the person who replaced in at that point didn't buy it, and I think she came close enough to justify to herself trying the whole thing again, knowing that we are again unlikley to actually execute the strategy, but maybe trade on the "nobody is stupid enough to do the same thing twice, are they?" doubts we are having right now to get townlocked even harder.

TLDR: The reason why the strat is +scum isn't to do with convincing town to nolim at any point, and I don't believe Cook was expecting to actually do so in 2075.

[Galron]

Do people think one or both scum were against Cook's plan?

So you have Cook as town?

I do not. I'm suspicious of both, and think one of them has to be mafia
The game Roden pointed out where Cook did pre much the exact same thing i.e. tracker claiming is always on my mind
I think there might be a couple of slight differences? Some things Spangled has said seem disingenuous to me and I'm not discounting the possibility of him being scum wanting to out a town PR

Both being scum seems way too easy

Suspicious of both who? One is Cook, I get that. But who is the other?

And I don't understand asking if both scum were against the plan if you thought that Cook was one.

[Galron]

I assume you mean Spangled. If so, it's just an odd way to start a written thought. I guess unless they're ingrained in your subconscious.

[Facebones]

I didn't read the scum thread. Whether it's down to laziness or apathy is up to you.
You asked for slight differences, and I mentioned one about Cook advocating for no elim on D1 as scum.
You were rather verbose in your reply, but I think the message you were trying to portray is that no lim would've just been an added bonus to scum being able to narrow down the set up possibilities better than town?

Is there any advantage to town you can see from Cook's proposed strategy? Why is it you think Spangled is a higher chance of flipping scum than Cook?

[Facebones]

Yes Galron, I was talking about both people FOR Cook's plan.
Your powers of deduction are uncanny and quite frankly lost in this game when there are cold cases waiting to be solved.

GO! The real world needs you.

[Galron]

Yes Galron, I was talking about both people FOR Cook's plan.
Your powers of deduction are uncanny and quite frankly lost in this game when there are cold cases waiting to be solved.

GO! The real world needs you.

If that's what you want to do, that's fine.

[Val89]

You asked for slight differences, and I mentioned one about Cook advocating for no elim on D1 as scum.
You were rather verbose in your reply, but I think the message you were trying to portray is that no lim would've just been an added bonus to scum being able to narrow down the set up possibilities better than town?

To be fair to you, I hadn't noticed the D1 nolim suggestion - I was looking at the outline of the strategy in the scum thread and trying to figure what was different about it this time, which means scum can't pull off the exact same trick, and I couldn't.

It's not that nolim would have an added bonus in scum narrowing down the setup - they get that nolim or not, and I don't think the nolim helps; it's just widely regarded that a D1 nolim is good for scum (they essentially just get a get to start the game off with a free kill n1), and so in the confusion of outlining the strategy if town blindly brought it that somehow that isn't true in the case the tracker claims D1, that's a brucey bonus that helps scum even more, but it's isn't actually part of the strategy itself. I think it speaks to the audacity of the plan Cook decided to throw that one in.

Is there any advantage to town you can see from Cook's proposed strategy?

None.

Why is it you think Spangled is a higher chance of flipping scum than Cook?

The sheer blind-faced gall of it all on the part of Cook would seem to stretch the realms of credibility, frankly. First game, she comes in as scum, claims to have broken a well-tested setup, asks everyone to trust her and for town PRs to go ahead and start claiming, knowing that is going to put people on guard. When she is inevitably challenged, she then outlines a strategy that is calculated to appear as though it might lead to a town advantage, but actually is good for scum, as she explains in detail to her scumbuddy. She also has the gall to also suggest a D1 nolim, and even though town don't buy into that nor the claiming, they do townread her for it, and she sails by until an unfortunate replacement right at the end of D2.

Next game, she comes in and, excluding the d1 nolim suggestion, does exactly the same. It's just so outrageous, I have to start second guessing myself. I do wonder if that is the intent, though. It's "too scummy to be scum" taken to the extreme.

Spangled, on the other hand is much more straightforward, and everything else aside, if they aren't the pair; and I have to decide if I am in a newbie game where mafia is trying to scam us with a ridiculous display of open-wolfing, or a more traditional nervous newbscum just slipping here and there slightly, and I think that being honest with myself I have to conclude the latter as more probable.

As such:

VOTE: Spangled

I wish I could figure out what the fuck Cook is playing at though. I fear this is going to hang over us all game otherwise.

[Facebones]

Galron, in fairness who else could it have possibly been?

Furthermore I don't see the point in you getting caught up in semantics rather than addressing the crux of the post.

[DArby]

I still disagree voting for Spangled d1. I think we can get more d2 out of him than Cook. Cook posted but hasn’t said anything to defend herself. I don’t like that.

[Galron]

Galron, in fairness who else could it have possibly been?

Furthermore I don't see the point in you getting caught up in semantics rather than addressing the crux of the post.

Getting the premise correct in my head is important to me. What I took out of the post was that you had TMI'd Cook as town. I wanted to nail that down. Apparently you were referring to a post you had made some time back, and I didn't match the two posts up. So if you want to push me for not connecting the dots, that's fine. Turns out what I thought I had seen probably wasn't what it seemed. You cleared that up.

[DArby]

Also I feel Val is being a bit too WIFOM. I’m not going to make it that deep. If you do something scummy you should be voted accordingly unless new information comes to light.

[DArby]

I will literally cry if Cook and Val are actually the scum pair and Val is playing 3D chess to save their scum buddy.

[schadd_]

;