Mini 2228: Isekai uPick - Endgame


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Post Post #5025 (ISO) » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:53 am

Post by Kate Bishop »

In post 5016, GuyInFreezer wrote:
In post 5012, Kate Bishop wrote:I ran into this post doing some research about how Day 1 played out. It doesn't really fit with what I'm looking for, so I'm going to post it now. Dunn was fairly well townread at the point where he posted this, so I thought it would be interesting to look at the players that flipped and the players that are still alive. He had Marci/Gamma slot in second tier town. Of his 5 lowest reads, 3 have flipped town. I think his other partner is maybe more likely to be lower than marci here than in the top tier. I feel like he underestimated GiF's ability to obvtown at this point. And I feel like he was explicitly not going after players who he knows tend to grab leadership, but leaving room to change that stance (the part about not being out of scumrange.)
In post 521, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 515, Kate Bishop wrote:{Dunn.......Cabd, GIF}
{Rhiannon, DGB(?)} DGB feels right on this tier but it's not as solid other reads to this point
{Wheme, marci.......manatee} niggles about manatee's role, but eh
{Unwnd} true null
{Luke}
{ssbm, Toog(?)}

---------------------

This is synced, but my reads are awfully fluid.

Toog's in flux. I feel like he's doing AI stuff now, maybe? Most of his posts from that LLD sus onward haven't sat right. I have a feeling Nacho would tell me this is town toog, but I never totally nailed down what makes town toog town to Nacho.

Maybe ssbm is where I'll want to vote.
[LLD, Cabd, Kate Bishop]
[Manatee, Unwnd, GIF, Marci]
[Wheme, Luke, DGB]
[SSBM, Toog]

With the caveat that I don't think anyone in the top tier is super far out of scum range, these are early feelings mainly based on tone and claims.
Cautiously putting Unwnd and Marci above null for unexplained reasons

I don't have any sort of feeling about Wheme//Luke right now, so they're at null

I didn't like the SSBM pop-in and only talking about the claims
Toog claiming to be confirmable doesn't do anything for me.
I think his other partner is maybe more likely to be lower than marci here than in the top tier.
So this points to Luke right
If I'm right in my thoughts about where Dunn would put his second partner. That's quite an if. :/

I should add meta-ing his scum readslists to my homework.
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Post Post #5026 (ISO) » Tue Oct 05, 2021 6:55 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 5021, Kate Bishop wrote:
In post 5019, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 5014, Kate Bishop wrote:
@Luke


Can you talk about your read of us and what has shaped it over the course of the game?
Spoiler: repliy in spoilers because long
Uh, sure.

Day 1:
I had you shifting town very slightly early on, because you guys looked very much like you were fairly aggressively sorting, but that was pretty tentative, because I know you are both pretty good players. At the time I had much stronger town reads and much stronger scum reads, so I was not very focused on you, but that was where you guys were sitting a bit in the background noise of it all [Town lean]

Then you guys started slipping back down in reads, because I started seeing you guys as having some pretty strong partner associative with my two strongest scum reads (toog and dgb), it looked to me like you were positioning yourself to save one of them without looking like you were saving them. Like, you were focusing on leading a push on someone else (and it did not help that the person you were leading the push on was me). The stance that you took with the 3 of us, I could see as you protecting either one: trying to save dgb from Manatee, because you were pushing for me and toog to die that day over it, or setting yourself up to save toog, because you thought manatee was getting ready to kill dgb and once that happened you were gonna lead into me over toog for the last vote. So, you I could see you as a partner to either one, so at that point I did not trust you. [Down to null]

I also did not like my back and forth exchange with ffery. Especially the one where you asked what my excuse was for not interacting with you [down to scum lean]

And then, you shifted back up to a slight town lean before the end of day 1, but there was not like One Thing that made that transition. I am not currently iso diving you, so this is just the vague things I remember from Day 1 that moved you. I remember you stopped trying to kill me, when killing me was still kinda on the table, which made me feel like you were actually trying to sort me. Also, I started thinking that dgb could be town, so the way you protected it started looking more pro-town. And just in general, our interactions felt better, idk. So you made it up to [null town]

But then you lead the SS elim. Which I felt like that wagon was icky.

Day 2:

At the start of Day 2, my scum reads had both flipped town, so I needed to reevaluate the table.

I was most strongly scum reading Gamma and Wheme. At the time, I had conflicting narratives of the scum team, depending on which of those scum reads I started from.

When I focused on Gamma, I had a narrative in my head where you deciphered Cabd's stuff Katniss, and then you fed the line to Marci to get her town through day 1. Like, of the table I thought that the combined ffery+notty slot would be most likely to be able to do that (and I kinda did not see cabd+gamma, because the way gamma walked out of the clear). But, that would make it hard for wheme to fit into the Gamma+kate team because of him actually claiming the Katniss slot.

So, on the other hand I had a Wheme team, which, when I worked past my bout of paranoia, always had cabd. which then did not involve you feeding a line to gamma anymore.

I was struggling to find a full team, it felt like I had too many pieces, and they were not all able to fit together. This was supposed to be "luke's thoughts on Kate" but you got all tied up in that confusion. But I kinda landed on one of you or Cabd were scum, but was unsure which.

I decided that the rest would be easier to sort through if I could just have a concrete starting point, so I wanted to just sift through Wheme and Gamma, figure out which one was more likely scum, and get the flip before I had to work through the rest of the lobby. I settled on it being Gamma, and I started wanting Gamma to die.

Then we had a surprise tracker guilty. And not just the tracker result, a lot of Dunn's positioning around it and his claim felt off, so suddenly he shot up from no where as a kill priority.

But, I was worried that a Dunn flip would help me sort through my thoughts on the rest of the table, less then a Gamma flip would. So, I prioritized killing Gamma first, and voted him. But then Gamma looked very, very bad after that, and also very very much like Dunn's partner. He was confimed scum in my eyes, so his flip was no longer needed for that, and so killing Dunn first was fine. Gamma would just die the next day.

So, I finally had a solid scum team in my head to look at the other people. with that lens. And yeah, you guys look pretty town in a scum!Dunn + scum!Gamma world. Because otherwise, it means that you guys walked into maybe-melo, and double bussed. And also, Gamma would have had to have walked in to maybe-melo, and decided that his number one push of the day would be on his partner (you).

And then the governor day happened, and you are The Reason Gamma died. So that pushed you into Town Lock territory.
Thanks for laying that out.

My big takeaway is that you were teamsolving on day 1. Is this something you usually do in games? I hadn't really noticed it, even in this game, until you laid out your thought process.
I would not say that I was team solving day one.

My biggest scum reads were Toog, DGB, and Marci. And none of them were based on team solving. I found each of them independently scummy. Although, I did think that Toog and DGB were never scum together.

You could be seen as the exception to that, but even when I was looking at you, I was not trying to team solve. It just really pinged me the way you were positioning yourself with respect to DGB+Toog+Me, and it felt agenda driven to me, which felt scummy.

That did end up with me thinking you were partnered with one of them, but I was not setting out trying to find their partners, I just did not like or understand your position, and it made more sense to me at the time that you were scum trying to save a partner then that you were a townie.
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Post Post #5027 (ISO) » Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:34 am

Post by Kate Bishop »

Your description of your scumread of us on day 1 feels like a team solve.

Our reads of both DGB and Toog both evolved on day 1. Which reads or which stage in the evolution looked like agenda-driven positioning?
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Post Post #5028 (ISO) » Tue Oct 05, 2021 8:56 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I mean, I had like 5 bullet points, and I think that one looks that way. And even that I would say that you were the exception not the rule. So, I think that it is wrong to say that I was, in general team solving.

So yes, my read on exactly you was swayed a bit by associative, but I would not use that to describe my approach to the game as a whole. This is probably a pointless distinction, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ i

The Agenda Driven part was your crusade to kill me at the time, over one of toog / dgb. It felt wrong. I did not feel like you could possibly have as strong of a scum read on me as you were claiming to have, especially with how little you guys had been interacting with me. I remember at one point you said something to me like "how do you expect to sort us without interacting with us" and I was like, they are saying this while literally championing my death while they have also not interacted much with me. Felt bad. Felt like you were approaching with the intent to have a scum read, vs actually having it. And then when I looked at you post , it like clicked in my head that you were actually just trying to save one of Toog / DGB. Because the thread momentum was leading towards a Toog+DGB elim, and then your crusade looked like it was trying to throw wrench into that. Either to change it from Toog+DGB to Toog+Luke OR setting up for whenever the seemingly inevitable Manatee kill on DGB, to then transition away from Toog and towards me.

It started more with "Their read and crusade on me feels fake" to a realization of "here is a scum motivation for them to be doing exactly what they are doing"

(even this point I feel like I did not approach it trying to team solve, even if it came across that way)

Also this post feels icky to write, because I am now pretty sure that you are town, but that is what I felt at the time which is what you asked me
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Post Post #5029 (ISO) » Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:03 am

Post by Lukewarm »

idk if I did a great job explaining that in 5019, because I am made that post all from memory, without opening up your iso at all to remind myself what I saw as it was happening. You guys have over 1,000 posts, so scrolling through your iso to answer your question did not look like it would be a good time.
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Post Post #5030 (ISO) » Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:22 am

Post by Kate Bishop »

We eventually and very reluctantly came to a POE scumread of DGB but it really bugged both of us. It was another, though minor, piece of why our Cabd read went full-on scum when DGB flipped town and Manatee was no-discussion elimmed. Some of our townreads were catastrophically wrong and it looked obvious that our Cabd read, which had already degraded due to marci's day 1, was in error.

Regarding toog, at the point where we backed off pushing him and wanted Cabd to look at the normal game and scum pt we linked, it was entirely due to how toog approached fake claiming in that game.

He didn't do anything remotely like claiming in his first post, which was a huge flag.

BUT

He also put a tremendous amount of effort into making his fake claim fit what was known about the game at that point, and he massively revised his fake claim in the scum pt after new data about the setup became available.

And that was in direct contradiction of his approach to claiming in this game where the claim looked like it hadn't been workshopped at all, and it came out in pieces.

I was torn about his alignment and not comfortable voting him until he replaced out. I scumread the way that replace-out happened.

Anyway, I probably should have just explained what I was thinking about Toog's scumplay in the normal game rather than trying to get Cabd to look at it and see what he thought. But, I wanted to see what he came up with as a check on my read of it and also to develop my read of him. Considerations for next time: I put too much of my day 1 effort into figuring Cabd out to the detriment of other stuff. I had other options for stakes in the ground.
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Post Post #5031 (ISO) » Tue Oct 05, 2021 5:54 pm

Post by Kate Bishop »

So Luke and I have talked quite a bit about post 5019, and as I read back through day 1 I'm really impressed with his memory of his read progression on me.

Really impressed.

And then I saw this post where he discusses how he catches up as scum.
In post 1231, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1220, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:
In post 1099, Lukewarm wrote:Okay. I am officially caught up!

With a single read through, I am at

Town:
Dunn
LLd
Cabd, Unwnd
Gif, SSMB

Null:
Kate, Marci, Wheme

Scum:
Toog , DGB

------

(Manatee left off intentionally.)

Because someone else mentioned me leaning scum on her before, Marci is back to null mainly because both Kate and Cabd are so hard town reading her, I feel like I am missing something and want to look at her against when doing isos.
This is the list I was referring to. What strikes me about it is that I'm TRing everyone he TRs. He has Toog and Marci way lower than I do, but the rest of his SRs/null are low enough that it feels like if he is scum then some of my TRs are wrong.

I'm looking at something close to my own readslist here which is concerning me. I feel like Luke's catchup just now matches the style of catchup that he's said he does in the past (I think in Crono Trigger he said this). Where he says he reads ahead and posts things that will get him to where he wants to be rather than catching up and posting as he catches up. So the focus on DGB during his catchup really stands out
Like Dunn said, why would you not consider you and I having similar reads could possibly mean that we could just share the same alignment?

Also, I can go back and find the posts if you need me too, but I think that I said I scum read dgb before other people like unwnd and cabd did. So it is actually impossible that I started with the goal of joining that as a consensus read....

As for the catch up, I am not 100% sure I know what you are meaning here? You are correct that as scum, I don't like to walk into a thread blind, and will always check the scum chat / skim through before I start posting. But that did not happen here? Do you think that my catch up posts seem informed? Is it just because I posted a lot about DGB?

(Also, in Chrono Trigger, I think that I was mainly talking about the fact that I never would have been surprised to see Robert's fake claim if he was my scum buddy, because I would have found out about it before I posted)
This post stands out to me. I've seen town-Luke be totally on top of the game, to the point of immediately directing people to recent significant posts from other players when someone asks what's going on. Day 1 wasn't recent, and yet he actually had his read formation on us outlined in much the way it appears in the game thread.

I feel like I'm getting back into the same mode like when I did my catch-up after replacing into his first MS game (a newbie game, late day 2). His iso was so smooth and flawless that I immediately wondered if he was the kind of scum player who could pull that off, laying down every read trajectory in perfect detail, telegraphing every reads change in progress.

He was town in that game. His play here is a rougher. Not much, but somewhat rougher.
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Post Post #5032 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:53 am

Post by Lukewarm »

I cannot tell if you are saying in that post that it makes you think I am town or scum -- Although, to be real with you, it is nai.

It is not an alignment thing. It is a me, as a person, thing.

I have pretty good recall, especially when I am actively trying to remember like when you asked me specifically to work through the game. In life, that means excellent test taking abilities (graduating high school salutatorian, while simultaneously getting two associates degrees by the time I was 18, and getting 1460/2060 SAT score, and then going to a top rated university - UNC Chapel Hill)
followed by a quick realization that being good at school is actually a bit meaningless in the real world :dead:


So I get the feeling that your "clean" meter does not mean much of anything on me ffery.
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Post Post #5033 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:06 am

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

Hmm
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Post Post #5034 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:19 am

Post by Cabd »

In post 5032, Lukewarm wrote:
followed by a quick realization that being good at school is actually a bit meaningless in the real world :dead:
Spoiler:
Same, failed out of a full ride because test taking well did not lead to actually enjoying university or the work of that type, now I'm in IT with no formal degree!
Have retired for good; Life is too busy to have time or energy for mafia. It was fun~
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Post Post #5035 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 1:39 pm

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

Honestly, I want everyone to say who they want to vote out today.

I wanna do Luke.
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Post Post #5036 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:45 pm

Post by Kate Bishop »

I think we want to do Luke, but I want to finish my readthrough/research first.

mostly recovered from flu shot blues so this should go pretty fast tonight/tomorrow.
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Post Post #5037 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:37 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

VOTE: Luke

Rather it now then to lose it in Elo
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Post Post #5038 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 5:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

It feels like me dying now is the best thing for the game state, but it also means ill be losing my streak, which is kinda sad.

I have never actually been miselimed before in any game I've been in :/
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Post Post #5039 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:06 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Actually

UNVOTE:

Just for a min. Want to do a final post, then I will put it back
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Post Post #5040 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 6:09 pm

Post by Kate Bishop »

sigh
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Post Post #5041 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 8:28 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

First, I am pretty sure that I should just die here.

There are 5 other people alive, and atm 4 of them think it could be me, and 3 of them have settled into a "we are not solving any more until Luke is dead," so yeah, I think that means me dying is the best for the game state, because that will force all 3 of them to come up with a new solve and actually look at the rest of the table. That includes which ever is scum, they will be forced to come up with a new solve too, and hopefully that will give new light for people to look at them.

I am also wavering in my Cabd solve a bit, so I think that forcing everyone else to do a hard reset it probably better even then us killing Cabd, and possibly leave me walking into melo with All Of The Scum Reads. And I almost feel like I should be apologizing, because in an ideal world, I would just buckle down and try and make it happen, because killing someone who is not me definitely has a higher chance of killing scum, so I Should be pulling up my boot straps, pouring through this game to shore up my solve, and trying to force an elim on Cabd (or another if that pouring lead me somewhere else),and ready to saying fuck it, I will fight tomorrow if I am wrong, but I just am not feeling it, and I haven't been feeling it since like day 1 of this game. And that is not a this game thing, that is a real life thing. I just don't have the energy available to me to pour into this game to try and make sure I have a right solve today or to sign up for a slog tomorrow.
earlier in this very post Luke wrote:I am also wavering in my Cabd solve a bit
This. I still think he is my best guess, and where I would start the hunt tomorrow, but the way other people have danced around my elim makes it harder for me to be as confident that they are town. Because to be real with you, I feel like I am pretty obviously town here, and each person that started joining the Luke train felt like someone trying to widden the elim pool by one, and since that is now like the entire lobby, I don't even know anymore.

It just feel very very strange that in the first half of Day 2 we were here
In post 4040, Lukewarm wrote:I don't want to be the town leader, but it feels like I am the universal town read

The pressure :dead:
And now we are where we are. Which is part of that feeling I was getting that each person that joined the train was just trying to nudge in an extra elim. Because, what happened from that point to this point was a back to back scum elims, with me having dug into both slots, been pretty vocal in scum reading both slots, and on both wagons. So it just feels wrong.

And I look at each person, and I ask why we are here with them ready to kill me, and not one of them has really made me understand (which is the other part of why each one looked like they could be scum trying to buy that elim that they needed).

LLD

I am sticking by what I said before. Their scum read on me is lazy.

Like, looking at their progression to reaching the point of "its just luke" does not feel real to me. When they started trying to kill me in Day 2, it was very much a poe'ed themselves into it, without actually looking at me at all. They openly outlined their poe thought process in . Then Kate asks them if they ever looked at associative with me, and they said that they had not but that they would do it . But it never happened. I have not seen a single reason that LLD thinks that it is me, and they have instead just settled into a "I am ready to kill Luke" mode ever since.

Like, just for your viewing pleasure, here is (I think) every post LLD talked about me since that point (I skipped a couple that had my name in them, but I was not the subject of the post)

Spoiler:
In post 4532, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:I think NL is just the worst here.

I want to do Luke. Kate, Kyouko, please.
In post 4592, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Honestly I just wanna kill Luke.
In post 4671, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Like you gotta die Cabd but I still think it is Luke at this point.
In post 4745, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:If Kate is scum and I had them day 1 I...

Like honestly I wanna do Luke Kate over Cabd Luke but losing to Cabd is MISERY in this spot
In post 4909, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 4908, Cabd wrote:
In post 4906, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Cabd, you're gonna need to stop being selfish I think.
Define "selfish"?
You are making this day weird by demanding your own death for the selfish reason that you don't want t have to fight tomorrow if Luke is wrong.

And as a result you're skewing all of the information available, demotivating everyone involved and also making it harder to play around this stupid mystery game.

It's selfish behaviour because you don't wanna give someone the satisfaction if they are scum? Are you kidding me?
In post 4912, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 4910, Cabd wrote:Sorry, I'm like, ubertilted.

What do you want to do?

Do you think that gif's prize is worth eliminating him here?

Do you want to just kill luke outright?

Right now it's essentially the gif-cabd-kate three player band here so I'll step back, but nobody else is really... doing anything.
I want to kill Luke today, and if the game doesn't end... We're looking at a team that contains Dunnstral and Gamma.

I don't know if Dunnstral dies the way he did if you're on his team. I don't know that you do the thing with Marci if you're on her team. It's harder for me to see that. Not impossible, but harder.

So at that point... it's

"Could GIF have killed using me while no longer in the real world?"

vs.

"Does Cabd really do the things with Marci and let Dunn die if they're scum together?"

vs.

"Is the stuff that made Kate obvious town to me really untrue?"

Which I'm more willing to assess and develop tomorrow, I think.
In post 4940, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:
In post 4938, Lukewarm wrote:There are two town players being really lazy in [lld, cabd, gif].

Looking at my interactions with Marci, and Marci's interactions with me (she basically pushed me all of day 1 up until her rep out, and I vocally scum read her all the way to her rep out)

And then looking at my interactions with Gamma - calling his rep in scummy, trapping him into voting dunn making him look like shit, hammering him in the governor phase.

I actually think that I am pretty clearly not aligned with that slot.

I think that Gif's is probably the most egregious, because he is at "bet the game that it is Luke" given his self vote plan (same would apply to cabd if he turns out to be town)

Like, I really think that those players have not even looked at me, and it is kinda sad.
I have thought you were scum since yesterday and even called you a possible Gamma partner since that long too. I don't know why you think I'm being lazy or not doing my due dillegence.
In post 4947, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:GiF, I wanna do Luke and then discuss between Kate and Cabd tomorrow honestly. I think Luke ends the game.
In post 5035, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Honestly, I want everyone to say who they want to vote out today.

I wanna do Luke.


Can anyone look at that and tell that they actually looked at me like they said they did? or that they actually scum read me for any reason? Because all I see is "I want to kill Luke" over and over with a level of certaintly that feels wrong given the poe nature of their read on me and the skill level of this table. Because she is apparently pretty sure that it is me, even though its poe, when she is sitting at a table with someone of the strongest scum players I have encountered on site, and that feels wrong. Maybe scummy, but if town, lazy, idk.

But I still have her more likely to be town then Cabd, because of her claim combined with then being tracked to the kill night 1 Dunn doing the kill.

Gif


does a pretty good job of incapsulating that "not sure if scummy or lazy." Like, he said the quiet part out loud. He sees the evidence that points towards me being town, but there he has "evidence" (in quotes because cabd's entry) for the other people being town, so Luke death it is. As opposed to questioning how he could have evidence on everyone at the table being town, and doing a reset.

But I still have him more likely to be town then cabd, because Gamma did not target himself with the governor ability.

Kate


Yeah, Kate too. Because unlike the others, they actually had me as a pretty strong town read, even walking into this day phase. And yet here we are, with them joining the Luke train. I think the late join is actually extra bad, since literally none of cabd, lld, or gif even put out a case to sway them. It just kinda happened once it was clear that there were the votes for it.

That being said, they are still more likely to be town then cabd because they would have to be bus master central this game if they are scum, the gamma kill being especailly town indicative for them, because they could have easily let a no elim happen, and would not have even had to lead it. Both myself and cabd made the case for no elim, they could have EASILY just sheeped that, while keeping up the "gamma is clearly scum tho" line.

Cabd


The prize at the end of the tunnel for reading through all of the shade I had for the other people, the actual scum case for my scum read!

Cabd is either scum, or consistently on the wrong side of history this game. A town!Cabd would at the very least be honorary scum number 4.

--------------------------

Day 1, Cabd single handedly saved the Marci/Gamma slot from elimination. Marci was a scum read of a lot of people, and I don't think there is ever a world where Marci did not die over SS if it was not for Cabd.

Important thing I think people should consider, is that Cabd started trying to save Marci before the clear stuff ever happened.

I also, am once again stuck on his use of the word "fluffy" to describe shiro. But also, that whole exchange really.

Spoiler:
In post 664, marcistar wrote:
In post 662, WhemeStar wrote:LLD CAN I PLEASE VOTE MARCISTAR
the sky has opened up and told me this is a sign..
why r u so excited to vote me?
In post 665, Cabd wrote:Oh my.

Kate?
In post 666, Cabd wrote:
In post 664, marcistar wrote:
In post 662, WhemeStar wrote:LLD CAN I PLEASE VOTE MARCISTAR
the sky has opened up and told me this is a sign..
why r u so excited to vote me?
Cute flat lass? Fluffy?
In post 707, marcistar wrote:
In post 666, Cabd wrote:
In post 664, marcistar wrote:
In post 662, WhemeStar wrote:LLD CAN I PLEASE VOTE MARCISTAR
the sky has opened up and told me this is a sign..
why r u so excited to vote me?
Cute flat lass? Fluffy?
yeah..?
In post 708, Cabd wrote:KATEEEEEEEEEEEE your nugget just grew into an entire bag of Kirkland ready to eat frozen meals.


Things that stand out to me:

664
- I firmly believe that that line was fed to Marci (cabd or no cabd). That is not normal Marci speak, Marci does not play the crumb game, and she does not have the anime knowledge to do it. Obviously cabd could feed it to her, but I don't know who else even could fed it to her at that point in the game.

On the Mech side, they would have had to have deciphered from Cabd that (a) Cabd was informed that someone else was town, but that (b) he only had the flavor clear, not the player name. I know he had that "Beast" crumb, but in FGO Beast knew exactly who, not just a flavor name, so they had to get that second step from somewhere else.

And on the flavor side, they would have to have figured out that he was (c) from No Game No Life AND that he was (d) specifically the angel character (in order for marci's post to flag him)

Kate / Cabd can talk about whether there were enough crumbs from Cabd for someone to have pieced together all 4 parts of that needed for anyone not named Cabd to feed marci that line.

665
the response from Cabd coming in the immediate next post irks me in a "they were both just on talking about this plan in the scum chat" kind of way

666
Okay. Lets pretend you are a town cabd, looking specifically for a player who is shiro or sora. Are you asking if marci is a "cute flat lass" or "fluffy?" -- These question disregards the idea that she could be sora, but the "cute flat lass" is SUCH a broad descriptor, that is seems almost designed to pull in a false positive. And fluffy...? It is an odd enough choice even before you realize that Marci's flavor was actually a cat girl, but adding that in, I once again get the feeling that the false positive was planned, and leaving them both plausible deniability if the other flipped. Marci can say that she is a car girl, so the word fluffy pinged her. Cabd gets to point at her original post, and say that that pinged him.

707
- Further points to marci having been fed the line with intent for the clear. Why would scum!marci openly agree with someone asking her flavor, unless she knew what was happening.

708
- again, with then cabd response being in the immediate next post.

But all in all, Cabd single handedly saved Marci day 1. And for context, I think that Cabd would do that after Tarot. I feel like there is a VERY high chance that Marci walked into the scum chat saying how scared she was that she was gonna die off the bat day 1 again after Tarot, and how bad that mad her feel, and that she hates letting her team down like that. And I can see Cabd (after being a big part of her dying that way in Tarot) trying to come up with a plan to help her avoid a repeat.

So, he saved Marci. Either scum, or on the wrong side of history

--------------

Other day 1 thought includes the fact that all of his scum reads have flipped town, including being on the Toogtus and the SS wagons.

Either scum, on the wrong side of history for all of that too


--------------

The secret manatee vote. It was gross, and bad.

Scum, or wrong side of history.

-------------

Day 2:
Dunn got tracked to the kill

Cabd has very little to say on this for a long. Kyouko outs the result in 3672, he drops a little bit of shade on the tracker claim , then radio silence on it for a couple days. Then we get . Which, imo, looks like hedging his bets. Dunn is red so if he flips he has that in his iso, but kyouko is orange, just in case the tracker result will be doubted. tbh, his section on kyouko seems forced.

And thats it. those two are his only posts talking about the tracker from the time that kyouko mentions it all the way up to Dunn being dead. Both posts shading kyouko.

Scum, or wrong side of history on the kyouko v dunn

-----------------

Marci/Gamma is revealed to never have been shiro, and here is Cabd's stance

Spoiler:
In post 3863, Cabd wrote:If gamma/marcislot ~is~ scum, it's with somebody fluent in crumbs. I'm still not sure that the reply to me is all that awkward as Luke makes it out to be though, as opposed to just flavor-dressing... but we won't know until we get a flavor and role claim from Gamma.

Frankly, I find it pretty sus that he did not turn around and scum read the slot. Marci was hella scummy day 1, and cabd seemed to build that read solely on her appearing to be shiro. And then she isnt. And his response is to still defend her slot with this post.

Scum, or... you get the idea

-----------------

He was not on the gamma govenor wagon

....

----------------

Then he walked into this day phase professing to be ready to bet the game on me being scum.

-----------------------



So yeah. I think I got everything out of me you are gonna get this game. I feel like it has to be cabd, like all signs point that way. But then EveryOne Else decided to come at this day in a way that shakes my certainty (except kyouko, kyouko you are doing amazing)

Spoiler:
Image


So yeah, I am not prepared to bet the game on it, and would rather just press the escape button and parachute out, and let you guys duke it out tomorrow.

Luke out

VOTE: Luke
I have a GTKAS now! - Come ask me questions!

They're super opinionated and make a lot of assumptions, they're also pretty clumsy with word choice - Bell
Luke, respect for your scumgame has gone up massively - Hectic
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Post Post #5042 (ISO) » Wed Oct 06, 2021 11:40 pm

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

My scumread on you isn't Lazy, but every calculation I come back to involves you being scum in most worlds.
Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.

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Post Post #5043 (ISO) » Thu Oct 07, 2021 3:07 am

Post by GuyInFreezer »

I still maintain the stance that if we are not confident in limming scum today I should be the lim today btw.
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The true enlightenment was realizing that they are the same thing."
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WHO THE FUCK DOES THAT"
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Post Post #5044 (ISO) » Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:01 am

Post by Kate Bishop »

my conviction is dead.
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Post Post #5045 (ISO) » Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:14 am

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

The case on Cabd seems decent but I don't agree with the assessment on LLD. I think Luke>Cabd is probably winning? Hard to say. Still deliberating.
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Post Post #5046 (ISO) » Thu Oct 07, 2021 4:35 am

Post by Lady Lambdadelta »

In post 5044, Kate Bishop wrote:my conviction is dead.
Please remember Yggdrasil, where I pulled this exact stunt and Cabd said "okay you can die".

And now in this game both Cabd and Luke are doing it. Do you think they can BOTH be town, doing it?
Yes my Lord, but questions are dangerous, for they have answers.

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Post Post #5047 (ISO) » Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:11 am

Post by Kate Bishop »

I'm the softie in Morph.

I feel like either of them is more likely to be scum than {GiF, ssbm, you}. GiF and SSBM are basically locktown to me. I think you and I have so much of a playstyle clash that it's difficult to reach enough meeting of the minds to develop a locktown read on you that isn't dependent on mech/night actions.

Cabd hast been AtEing since early Day 2 and has just refused all of my reach-outs. I can't resolve the question of how much of that is genuine, and whether, if genuine it's AI.

Luke's posts over the last 8-12 hours have shaken my read up all over again. And that also comes down to my reaction to the emotional content and effort-posting. notsci feels similarly.

The thing that makes me most concerned about Luke is that he hasn't shown the tenacity I've come to expect from him. His day 2 posts after Dunn's elim in particular gave off a sense that he'd checked out and just wanted the day to end. Feeling that way is one thing. Saying it out loud is another thing, and I've just not seen that kind of emotional reveal from him in prior games.
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Post Post #5048 (ISO) » Thu Oct 07, 2021 5:23 am

Post by ssbm_Kyouko »

VOTE: Luke
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Post Post #5049 (ISO) » Thu Oct 07, 2021 7:54 am

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 5047, Kate Bishop wrote: Luke's posts over the last 8-12 hours have shaken my read up all over again -- effort-posting

The thing that makes me most concerned about Luke is that he hasn't shown the tenacity I've come to expect from him. His day 2 posts after Dunn's elim in particular gave off a sense that he'd checked out and just wanted the day to end. Feeling that way is one thing. Saying it out loud is another thing, and I've just not seen that kind of emotional reveal from him in prior games.
Kill me today, and adjust for this in future games, because it feels like you are backwards in the way you are reading me.

I think that my two most consistently high effort games were my two real scum games -- your newbie and then popcorn. That newbie game had high effort luke literally from the start to the moment I died, and that hectic quote in my signature is because I basically efforted my way out of a scum read from him.

And the emotional stuff and the lack of tenacity both are pretty absent from my scum games I am pretty sure, and has more to do with the fact that because of real life I was barely hanging on to this game, and came really really close to repping out Day 2. But I felt like the night phase was on the horizon and decided to stick it out. And then the day did not end... And then I was in a player list that I felt more comfortable expressing that. I have played multiple games with every player in this lobby except gif and that every player except kyouko is in our discord group, so this is probably the most comfortable player list I have ever sat in.

But those are new notes for the Luke folder for future games. I need out, please vote me
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They're super opinionated and make a lot of assumptions, they're also pretty clumsy with word choice - Bell
Luke, respect for your scumgame has gone up massively - Hectic
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