Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[Morning Tweet]

I feel really useless for not being able to identify the town in you three haha

[the worst]

[Morning Tweet]

I'm pretty much ready to flip SS and eat a fat L if scum actually saw it coming

It seems like most everyone is done weighing in

[imaginality]

It was quiet, too quiet. Tumbleweed tumbled weedily along the deserted main street of the small town at the border of the desert.

The street was deserted because the six townsfolk were in the square. Imaginality and Something_Smart were standing facing each other, as though about to duel. Though as neither had any bullets in their guns, the face off would have taken some time to settle.

Fortunately, the other four townsfolk happened to be in possession of an anachronistic but fully functional bazooka. It was so heavy that it needed either two men, or one man and one duck, to lift it. Morning Tweet, meanwhile, was responsible for aiming it.

She swung the weapon first at one of the two hapless gunslingers, then at the other. Her voice rumbled across the square as she growled, "Do I feel lucky?"

[the worst]

nearly high noon y'all

good is the MT + Bingle show rn (which means it's the MT show because Bingle has apparently fuckin disappeared), I can offer opinions but I'm wary that I'm not really trusted here.

[Morning Tweet]

thoroughly enjoyed that imagi lmfao

I don't like it when it's the MT show

Actually, that's not true, I do like that but only when I know what I am doing and this is not one of those games

[Morning Tweet]

I don't think I'm gonna reread again I am kinda done trying to figure it out with the information I have

Worst and imagine have done more to give me pause, SS isn't here at deadline, I'm not entirely sure he has an opinion on who is scum, which I would kinda sorta expect.

In his opinion imagineality is highly scum and worstie is highly town but like, would you even know that had I not just told you?

[Morning Tweet]

I'm kinda psyching myself out into thinking worstie/imagine are just playing a huge mind trick on me by not touching SS all day and predicted I would go there

Which seems waayyyy less likely than SS just being a town or scum who isn't 8-ball

And leaving imagi/worstie as TvS

At the moment I'm kinda sort of favouring imagi/SS being the scumteam. Maybe Wisdom was onto something with worst and maybe worst really is bleeding town. My points for imagi town could definitely be stronger.

I can't bring myself to trust worst for some reason, dunno why

[Morning Tweet]

I simultaneously dont think SS is ever 8-ball but am dreading the flip heavily since I really don't feel confident at all

It's my choice, howwww can he be 8-ballllllllllllllll why would scum gamble thatttttttttttttt

eeeeengnhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[the worst]

Spoiler: duck thoughts, only click if you're ready for your mind to be corrupted by evil pond water

town's only real vector to loss atm is if we hit 8 balls back to back, or if the scumteam is something goofy like 2 of {me, Bingle, imagi, house} or it's like, Bingle + {ss, hoise} (associatives suck but Bingle's push on me is independently towny. I think him freezing now we're coming down to the wire is probably not a good sign.

All in all I think you're overthinking it though. Given how d1 finished, and how passively today shook out til I flipped the table, tw/bingle was meant to be the main event. The scummier slots in the game (imagi/ss) are weakly positing that eliminating in them is a bad idea because of 8-ball equity, but aren't really committing to solving the balance of slots for non-8b scum. I think that's a reasonably strong indicator the solve is just imagi/ss. My wild card rn is actually imagi/Bingle but I think we lose that game most of the time.

I know scum took the hardmode elim on d2, but also remember that was a very significant 1v1 between wisdom + imagi which invented on d1. It was a challenging elimination, but it wasn't an impossible elimination and there was some level of anticipation for a significant swing back against Wisdom. I think Ali would have been too obvious an 8-ball choice for d2 in hindsight, but hindsight is 20/20, etc.

I don't think it's you and I don't think it's House. I don't reeeeally think it's Bingle. SS and imagi fit for what I'd expect scum to be doing here (working different reads and different pockets while hoping y'all independently fall on the wrong side of the fence but preparing for the worst). I think we just yeet imagi today - 8-ball equity isn't all that high but scum equity is v high.

Imagi is postin real cute here because he knows he has a high risk of going down and his partner has a decent way to go, I think. Behaviourally I'd be pretty surprised if that's coming from non-8b scum (but I'm fallible ane like to be surprised)

pedit: I was starting to suspect it, but still, my heart soars.

[the worst]

I'll tell you why you don't trust me post-game if you'd like I think I can see it.

[the worst]

Actually I could tell you now ig it doesn't super matter

[Morning Tweet]

It's true, SS is like "Bingle is probably the 8-ball oOoOOoooO" but isn't exactly helping us win, he's not solving. He has Bingle and imagine as his team i think.....

pedit: Whatever feels right!

If the team is imagine/SS i dont think either of them are 8-ball so i guess it doesnt really matter if that is in fact right

[Morning Tweet]

Bingle favours imagine by a slim margin, House voted imagine over you last. (I checked because I sort of want it to be a group decision from town but i dont know if i really have the time or will to ask for help at this point)

So worstie/Bingle/House/I are all okay with an imagine elim

To be honest we're all okay with an SS elim too but imagine is probably a slight favourite

Ejhjnn imagine's Bingle/worst tinfoil is starting to seem a little strained. Maybe it's as simple as SS/imagine losing steam

[Something_Smart]

I simultaneously dont think SS is ever 8-ball but am dreading the flip heavily since I really don't feel confident at all

how about you just flip scum instead and then it doesn't matter if they're the 8-ball?

[Something_Smart]

also if I replace into this position as scum I probably make myself the 8-ball and tell my partner to not bus me, and then when I inevitably flip everyone will go oh he must have been bussed.

unless my partner is in a good enough spot to just force through a mis-exe, but I'm not sure if anyone here besides maybe MT would qualify for that.

[imaginality]

Bingle favours imagine by a slim margin, House voted imagine over you last. (I checked because I sort of want it to be a group decision from town but i dont know if i really have the time or will to ask for help at this point)

So worstie/Bingle/House/I are all okay with an imagine elim

To be honest we're all okay with an SS elim too but imagine is probably a slight favourite

Ejhjnn imagine's Bingle/worst tinfoil is starting to seem a little strained. Maybe it's as simple as SS/imagine losing steam

This is why I'm concerned that if you lim me, when I flip town, you're just going to lim SS tomorrow and if I'm right on Bingle/the worst, they win.

If you lim SS and he flips scum, sweet. If he flips town I think we have a better choice of getting the right lim tomorrow with me around than without.

[Morning Tweet]

also if I replace into this position as scum I probably make myself the 8-ball and tell my partner to not bus me, and then when I inevitably flip everyone will go oh he must have been bussed.

unless my partner is in a good enough spot to just force through a mis-exe, but I'm not sure if anyone here besides maybe MT would qualify for that.

And if you aren't the 8-ball?

[Something_Smart]

huh? I don't get what you're asking

[Morning Tweet]

If you did in fact give the 8-ball to worst or Bingle and you plan on capitalizing on that 1v1, what would you gameplan be. Would you still tell your partner not to bus you, I suppose is what I'm asking.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, presumably I would want my partner to be pushing that person pretty hard.

[Something_Smart]

While I defend them, in all likelihood.

[the worst]

It's true, SS is like "Bingle is probably the 8-ball oOoOOoooO" but isn't exactly helping us win, he's not solving. He has Bingle and imagine as his team i think.....

pedit: Whatever feels right!

If the team is imagine/SS i dont think either of them are 8-ball so i guess it doesnt really matter if that is in fact right

last time i scum'd against u my wincon was picking the losing side of you vs. pooky and then letting the winner get dunked on the following phase. that's exactly what happened.

in this phase i'm consistently picking the right battles to fight, which is reminiscent of the kind of way i react to gamestates as scum. it just so happens that this time i'm doing it *after* it's already too late for me to have done so to win clout as scum which is 1) more superficially scummy, and 2) not actually reminiscent of the way i approach the game as scum!!

[the worst]

Behaviourally I'd be pretty surprised if that's coming from 8b* scum (but I'm fallible ane like to be surprised)

correcting a typo here, i felt like i had this niggling feeling this post made no sense

[Save The Dragons]

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