Large normal 236 [Game over]

[Dwlee99]

Not more than 50/50 but:

Spoiler:

[GrandpaMo]

How can you type texts that i can read word for word, yet feel like i didn't actually read anything.

thats why u had matching pfps with scum

[GrandpaMo]

the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team

This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be

that

many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow

one hundred and ninety times better than random.

I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.

koba can you like. respond to this please

tell me why i thought u were like radiant at first

[charlemagne]

Not more than 50/50 but:

Spoiler:

This is really interesting data. Where did you get it from, what are the sample sizes, and are there any potential biases/confounding factors that weren't controlled for? My only real concern is that it's in a mini, but this is sufficient evidence that my anecdotal hypothesis was wrong and ranny is slightly +rand scum

[charlemagne]

the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team

This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be

that

many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow

one hundred and ninety times better than random.

I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.

koba can you like. respond to this please

tell me why i thought u were like radiant at first

?

[Dwlee99]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=87263

But probably avoid commenting in this thread til the game is over cause I'm posting it here

[Dwlee99]

Each hammer is different etc. etc. there are townie and scum hammers but just "yea hammer good" is not convincing

[Gamma Emerald]

What

[charlemagne]

okay cool i trust psyche's data. that's pretty convincing evidence that ranny is +rand scum. i'd be \fine\ voting them today, but would prefer mama ru, t3, and *maybe* koba. (still conflicted hard on that read; i need to go back and think about it more.

[Dwlee99]

What

?

[House]

What

?

!

[Gamma Emerald]

What

?

I skipped several pages to save time and I see vote analysis stuff, what’s the deal with it?

[Titus]

Koba, while I get having fun with House, proposing a setup where someone doing nothing but

actively trolling

is the nightkill needs a lot more justification. It also can be extrapolated to the game state at large.

I'd like to see you do that.

However, House is NOT a doctor. We are as we've claimed.

[DkKoba]

it was really simple- you were a claimed PR. that was it.

[NorwegianboyEE]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: charle

You’re acting pretty childish right now.

[LicketyQuickety]

House is probably Town for being this weird.

[House]

UNVOTE:

VOTE: charle

You’re acting pretty childish right now.

Hi.

I'm House.

Nice to meet you.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Charlemagne’s posts are very +scum.

[NorwegianboyEE]

How can you type texts that i can read word for word, yet feel like i didn't actually read anything.

thats why u had matching pfps with scum

No u

[Almost50]

Also did you not notice my crumbs Koba? They were super obvious and multiple times directed towards you

You mean the L Lawliet pic in 71, the

Detected

(with a capital D) in 80, the Detective Pikachu pic in 126, the "whatever this is" in 200, the "detect it later" in 448, the "smaller" Detective Pikacho pic in 608, and the "I'll make sure to detect bussing" in 1639?? I don't think anyone noticed that AT ALL!

[Almost50]

I did not notice a single crumb.

Neither did I tbh. Neither did I indeed.

[Almost50]

@norwee/dwlee/a50 thats you 3 atm

especially 100% put cool cookie as cleared town on ranny scumflip.

Noted

[Almost50]

I have reason to believe they are not BP.

I'm N2N3 Commuter.

This is it. I can't hold it no more.. I gotta go to the bathroom right now!

[Almost50]

i mean like scum literally had an ascetic to kill that buried a scum on a silver platter and they chose not for whatever reason lmfao

maybe they didn't notice the Detective crumbs either..

[Almost50]

dwlee is pretty towny on dayplay.

Did you read my case on them? DW was playing LAMIST because they were faking the emotions. In the other game they were playing at the exact same time they were completely calm compared to how irritated they seemed in this game. Like 2 separate personalities at the same time.

Mate, Dwlee was literally baiting the NK. How do you bait the NK without acting LAMIST?