Mini Normal 2242 | Opossum Mafia | Game Over!

[cool cookie]

They either kill him or roleblock him. In this case he was roleblocked, since he got no result.

Again: Why stall on a NO RESULT? What's the point? Scum already know if they blocked him, so why not say it outright?

And even more: THERE IS No ROLEBLOCKER IN THIS SETUP. There can't be. There's a Vig that can't shoot half the players list (

at least

half of it). You don't further cripple them by adding a Roleblocker, a Jalkeeper or a Doctor. And

assuming

T3 is Town, that's also a seriously nerfed role that doesn't ever be more burdened by the existence of a Roleblocker or a Rolestopper. The mist you could do to really really piss them off id to have ONE SLOT untargetable to them (Ascetic or Commuter), and that's really pushing it still.

you're assuming the vig is legit to make the case there is no roleblocker? I'm happy for T3 to clarify on the 'no result' point though - if they were blocked, the whole crumbing thing is slightly redundant.

[TheZenMan]

Plus, I believe he tried to leave a breadcrumb for his scum partners that I was also BP when I had claimed VT and was trying to draw scum shot to me.

Where did this happen?

It's in this post:

Here's what I suspect is going on: Regardless of cookie's alignment, T3 claims to have checked Dwlee (I assume whoever he responds to first is the target). He sleeps on it and checks Dwlee on N2 and comes back with a GUILTY on D3 (Dwlee can communicate but is not a neighbor). By the time we realize we have been fooled we're already in E-Lo it's GAME OVER with 3 mis-eliminatiosn and 2 Nks (assuming a 9 v 4 distribution). Meamwhile, Redtea is preoccupied and the Scum PRs are safe for the 2 nights it takes them to achieve this.

If this is true, three is more likely truly claiming VANILLA, because if he is a Traitor his death prevents the Scum win on D3 (although they can still achieve it on N3). Whether he's VT or a Goon though is up in the air (but I would slightly lean Goon since he wanted to draw the Vig to himself)

In hindsight I should not have claimed my BP. That would have been risky because of the Complex Vig thing, but it would have been beneficial to draw the NK and take Scum by surprise.

Based on the above, I don't think Scum would ALSO have a RB. We don't have that much strength in our roles as Town collectively. So..

IF T3 IS NOT ELIMINATED TODAY I BEG FOR readtea TO SHOOT HIM TONIGHT

Where he says "In hindsight I should not have claimed my BP. That would have been risky because of the Complex Vig thing, but it would have been beneficial to draw the NK and take Scum by surprise." This was when he knew I was actually BP but was claiming VT in order to draw night shot from scum. To me it's a completely unnecessary comment, and only serves as a breadcrumb from a traitor to scum about me being BP. This is what started making me suspicious in the first place.

[House]

Where he says "In hindsight I should not have claimed my BP. That would have been risky because of the Complex Vig thing, but it would have been beneficial to draw the NK and take Scum by surprise." This was when he knew I was actually BP but was claiming VT in order to draw night shot from scum. To me it's a completely unnecessary comment, and only serves as a breadcrumb from a traitor to scum about me being BP.

Now see, this is why I don't bother with crumb hunting.

I'd have never been able to do enough math to make that add up.

[TheZenMan]

the only reason i'm not on A50 right now is because i think he's the traitor and i want to find scum

hmm i made the point earlier that there is little reason to believe Almost50 couldn't simply be group-scum as opposed to traitor. Group-scum claiming bulletproof to get 'off the hook' is a predictable play for Almost50 here.

I think it's way more likely that A50 is BP traitor. He claimed BP neighbor right away, which would just be his role minus the traitor part. He did this before even talking to me, so he didn't yet know I was a 1-shot BP neighbor.

Plus, I believe he tried to leave a breadcrumb for his scum partners that I was also BP when I had claimed VT and was trying to draw scum shot to me.

ok that's interesting! are you sure he claimed BP before I outted the BP traitor publically?

No he claimed BP after you had already outted the BP traitor. I meant that if he were BP traitor Neighbour, claiming BP neighbour is the closes town aligned equivalent. He did however claim BP before I told him I was also BP.

[cool cookie]

It's relevant cause aren't we suspecting there's scum in the hood because they both said they're 1-shot bp?

yeah im not mad about 2 claims which surely cant both be true, being let off the hook because they must be a traitor - when they would have know there was a bulletproof traitor at the point they claimed, and therefore could easily be a scum strategy. although Zen's point about timing, and the unlikeliness of them both being scum are relevant too.

mind you, if both neighbours were scum along with T3, T3's claim is the perfect one to try and give neighbours legitimacy. but that's really not to worry about today.

who was pushing the massclaim case? some suspicion on that i think

[Save The Dragons]

my problem is that the neighborhood may or may not be influenced by past games and in a vacuum there's any possible combination of alignments in the neighborhood between {town, scum, traitor}

do you have any other thoughts dwlee

[T3]

I have never seen an all town hood.

[House]

my problem is that the neighborhood may or may not be influenced by past games and in a vacuum there's any possible combination of alignments in the neighborhood between {town, scum, traitor}

do you have any other thoughts dwlee

Do you townread both A50 & Zen independent of the existence of the hood?

[Save The Dragons]

no

[cool cookie]

the only reason i'm not on A50 right now is because i think he's the traitor and i want to find scum

hmm i made the point earlier that there is little reason to believe Almost50 couldn't simply be group-scum as opposed to traitor. Group-scum claiming bulletproof to get 'off the hook' is a predictable play for Almost50 here.

I think it's way more likely that A50 is BP traitor. He claimed BP neighbor right away, which would just be his role minus the traitor part. He did this before even talking to me, so he didn't yet know I was a 1-shot BP neighbor.

Plus, I believe he tried to leave a breadcrumb for his scum partners that I was also BP when I had claimed VT and was trying to draw scum shot to me.

ok that's interesting! are you sure he claimed BP before I outted the BP traitor publically?

No he claimed BP after you had already outted the BP traitor. I meant that if he were BP traitor Neighbour, claiming BP neighbour is the closes town aligned equivalent. He did however claim BP before I told him I was also BP.

hmm I like that you admitted he claimed it first. And the fact he claimed BP to you after knowing about the BP traitor makes me more wary it's a gambit from group-scum. seems more likely than Almost50 splurging about being the real traitor.

[Save The Dragons]

if people want A50 i'm willing to go there

[House]

my problem is that the neighborhood may or may not be influenced by past games and in a vacuum there's any possible combination of alignments in the neighborhood between {town, scum, traitor}

do you have any other thoughts dwlee

Do you townread both A50 & Zen independent of the existence of the hood?

no

I did not expect this response.

I expected you to say yes, because "no" does not line up with

i think it might be better to hunt outside the hood

[House]

if people want A50 i'm willing to go there

Okay.

What changed your mind?

[cool cookie]

my problem is that the neighborhood may or may not be influenced by past games and in a vacuum there's any possible combination of alignments in the neighborhood between {town, scum, traitor}

do you have any other thoughts dwlee

im not sure i understand why you dont want to elim in the hood. we do know a little:

1. unlikely both claims are true as would be pretty weird setup-wise, therefore min 1 scum.
2. unlikely both players are scum otherwise we've solved game, therefore 1 claim likely true.
3. arguably more incentive for scum to claim bulletproof to avoid getting elimmed (coz just a traitor) than for a traitor to claim it as a signal.

at least those are my thoughts on it

[T3]

I'd vote T3 right now but I'm afraid he might self hammer.

I didn't ask redtea to shoot me to redirect a bullet away from scum. I asked to get shot because redtea was told not to shoot anyone, and I offered myself so that he'd at least have something to do. Then with T3's claim we had a way to clear me of being neither Mafia nor Traitor. Instead, he...targets Jacket.

The problem is not only did he not follow the plan, he didn't feel the need to check me even though he supposedly scum read me almost the entirety of Day 1. All this does is put me in a spot where people already don't trust me and then amplify it, since T3 purposely chose to keep my alignment unknown. He had no legitimate reason to check Jacket, and scum had no real reason not to kill T3.

T3's just scum claiming at this point.

I genuinely didn't remember that when submitting.

[Save The Dragons]

the only reason i'm not on A50 right now is because i think he's the traitor and i want to find scum

did you miss this post house

[Save The Dragons]

i'm saying "let's hunt outside the hood, but if people are adamant about A50, i'll do it, but i think he's the traitor"

[cool cookie]

i will say on T3 though, the whole "cookie can confirm me" at the start of day was a bit overplayed. so I'm still watching there, even though the mechanical synergy is good and i'm never a fan of elimming investigatives early.

Pedit: Save the Dragons did you see my posts about that? good to know your thoughts

[House]

the only reason i'm not on A50 right now is because i think he's the traitor and i want to find scum

did you miss this post house

I've never cared about those kinds of logical gymnastics.

I'm a simple guy. Red is dead.

If a player reads as scum to me, I'm not going to wrack my brain trying to figure out which one. That's losing WIFOM, IMHO.

[cool cookie]

tbh if we elim Almost50 and he is the traitor, it's doubly useful because it makes it less likely redtea is scum.

[cool cookie]

the only reason i'm not on A50 right now is because i think he's the traitor and i want to find scum

did you miss this post house

I've never cared about those kinds of logical gymnastics.

I'm a simple guy. Red is dead.

If a player reads as scum to me, I'm not going to wrack my brain trying to figure out which one. That's losing WIFOM, IMHO.

can relate to this

[Save The Dragons]

1. unlikely both claims are true as would be pretty weird setup-wise, therefore min 1 scum.

this is pretty outguessing the mod i don't like it

2. unlikely both players are scum otherwise we've solved game, therefore 1 claim likely true.

how do you know they aren't 2 members of the scum team pretending to be in a neighborhood?

3. arguably more incentive for scum to claim bulletproof to avoid getting elimmed (coz just a traitor) than for a traitor to claim it as a signal.

did they claim bulletproof after the vig was revealed or before?

[Save The Dragons]

VOTE: Almost50

[cool cookie]

1. unlikely both claims are true as would be pretty weird setup-wise, therefore min 1 scum.

this is pretty outguessing the mod i don't like it

2. unlikely both players are scum otherwise we've solved game, therefore 1 claim likely true.

how do you know they aren't 2 members of the scum team pretending to be in a neighborhood?

3. arguably more incentive for scum to claim bulletproof to avoid getting elimmed (coz just a traitor) than for a traitor to claim it as a signal.

did they claim bulletproof after the vig was revealed or before?

they claimed bulletproof after according to Zen. if they are 2 members of a scumteam pretending to be in a neighbourhood, either there is a neighbourhood unclaimed out there (which i think is unlikely) or T3 is also scum, and we've got the whole scumteam outted (also unlikely). on 1, it might be outguessing the mod, but it's a normal game, so i think it's fine to expect reasonably normal non-bastard setups. 3 players with gated bulletproofness in a mini normal seems unlikely to me - if it's been done before, show me!

[Save The Dragons]

in a vacuum it's certainly possible in a normal game