Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[Morning Tweet]

I can't remember the last pro-town thing Bingle did this game

The answer is pretty much nothing. I've been a liability. I haven't had strong reads I've been pushing, had paranoia on people who have since flipped town and spent the entirety of the game either tunneled on town or sheeping Wisdom's imaginality push to try to make that a viable alternative to Ali/House which may or may not have actually been protown, but certainly wasn't very strongly protown since it ended up going absolutely no where.

Oh, I haven't thought about day one in a while. I wonder if there's anything important there.

[Morning Tweet]

So it's up to the rest of you whether you think that's because Taly is so obvtown, or because Wisdom is scum and knows Taly is town.

Like this is suggestive, it's like he's saying "Taly is not obvtown so I don't believe Wisdom" but he's putting it more subtly so it immediately rings manipulation bells for me

I can see it. Not really made better by him also townreading Taly.

VOTE: imaginality

You idly voted imaginality all day, then switched to Ali when like one person voted Wisdom and you had 8-ball suspicions.

You also had voted Ali a couple posts before, so I'm pretty sure you thought Ali was +scum in some capacity. You voted imagine all day because you wanted an alternative to Ali?

[Morning Tweet]

I still think imagine's initial switch from Wisdom to Ali was a little off, but the justification afterwards seemed well-founded and in general I find switching from voting somebody to voting the person they're voting more spontaneous town than scum.

Mom has no gameplay. Nothing to suggest being with or not being with anyone really.

Maybe if anything it's slightly surprising no one EVER tried to use her as a mislim. Like who ever brings up that slot to vote? No one. If there are two scum not named Mom, I'm sort of surprised at that. SS points this out himself after repping in, lol.

[Something_Smart]

I wish we had killed SS or anyone not named ducky yesterday, i miss him

Right??

[Something_Smart]

Definitely gonna have to reread these pages when I'm not on mobile and can give it more attention.

I can also respond to whatever you want, but I won't do everything because I don't want to shit up the thread with quote stripes.

My reasoning on ducky was really just:
- Sheeping Wisdom (I didn't say this because anyone else can do this just as easily as me, if they cared)
- He pushed Alisae hard on D2-- like I said, my default mindset after the failed Alisae flashwagon would have been that he would quickly get wagoned again. I really do think that scum wouldn't 8-ball Wisdom and then play into this.
- He unvoted Alisae on D1 when he very well could have been the 8-ball, and then turned around and pushed Alisae when he wasn't 8-ball.

Sadly I don't think I touched much on #3, but #2 is really the big one.

[Bingle]

You idly voted imaginality all day, then switched to Ali when like one person voted Wisdom and you had 8-ball suspicions.

No?

I voted Ali as a WAGONS! vote, then switched to imaginality because I realized that Wis was pushing both imagine and Ali while voting Ali and I wanted to see if anyone would bite and try to shift the wagon. I spent the majority of my time poking people who were neither of them, iirc, but I didn't have any strong reads one way or the other. I leaned slightly town on Wisdom and that was about it.

Ali accused me of scumreading him a few times iirc, to which I clarified that I didn't, and said he thought I was scum for it because I should have been able to read him despite not having played a game with him in years and the general lurker-y behavior early on.

I voted Ali with less than 24 hours left in the day because it was the only viable wagon and additionally noted my thought that Wis might be the eight ball because there were two people who had voted him with like no time left in the day and two more people who were supporting the wagon prior but weren't on it: {duck/ali/imagine/taly}. I think most of them (the exception being imagine) had also expressed willingness to shift to imagine earlier, although I'd have to double check to be sure. Notably, your slot agreed with my sentiments.

All of this has been clarified multiple times, particularly on D2.

[House]

I'm good with either S_S or imaginality, at this point.

See y'all in a couple days, I guess.

[Morning Tweet]

So far I've gotten the impression that SS/imagine aren't aligned, as well as possibly that imagine/Bingle aren't aligned

[Bingle]

- He pushed Alisae hard on D2-- like I said, my default mindset after the failed Alisae flashwagon would have been that he would quickly get wagoned again. I really do think that scum wouldn't 8-ball Wisdom and then play into this.
- He unvoted Alisae on D1 when he very well could have been the 8-ball, and then turned around and pushed Alisae when he wasn't 8-ball.

Spoiler:

Vote Count 2.1

3 Alisae (the worst, Hiraki, Wisdom)
2 the worst (Bingle, Taly)
1 Wisdom (Alisae)

Not voting: Momrangal, imaginality

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to yeet

Deadline:

D2 ends at (expired on 2021-10-02 17:15:04)

Vote Count 2.2

3 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst)
2 House (Morning Tweet, Wisdom)
1 the worst (Bingle)

Not voting: Momrangal, imaginality

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to yeet

Deadline:

D2 ends at (expired on 2021-10-02 17:15:04)

I don't get 2 as a reason to townread duck at all. No one pushed Wisdom at daybreak D2 (other than Ali), and in fact ducky was one of the first people to switch to Wisdom. And do you have any particular reason why Ali was likely the 8ball D1?

[Bingle]

I'm good with either S_S or imaginality, at this point.

See y'all in a couple days, I guess.

I'm not. Its XLO, we should take our time.

[Morning Tweet]

Who did you want dead yesterday, SS?

[House]

I'm good with either S_S or imaginality, at this point.

See y'all in a couple days, I guess.

I'm not. Its XLO, we should take our time.

I know.

Shit just gets tedious at this point.

[Bingle]

Theory: Bingle/SS/imagine are all scum

She's onto us, guys. At least she hasn't figured out House yet.

[Something_Smart]

I don't get 2 as a reason to townread duck at all. No one pushed Wisdom at daybreak D2 (other than Ali), and in fact ducky was one of the first people to switch to Wisdom.

The point isn't that ducky pushed away from Wisdom more than anyone else, it's that he pushed toward Alisae who could have just been insta-executed given the amount of people who wanted to kill him the day before.

And do you have any particular reason why Ali was likely the 8ball D1?

None, other than that he's a reasonably easy-to-execute person and also nearly died D1.

[Something_Smart]

In fact, at this point I know that either Alisae was scum and being bussed, or town and being voted by both scum, both indicating a pretty high chance of 8-ballship.

Though of course it would be circular to use that as a reason to townread tw.

[Something_Smart]

Who did you want dead yesterday, SS?

Imaginality.

[Morning Tweet]

maginality seemed like the most likely person to pick Wisdom as the 8-ball, as well as being Wisdom's primary suspect.

Is your read any deeper than this?

[imaginality]

Just posting to say I'm reading. From my pov I'm still convinced both Bingle and SS are scum and you and House are town, so I'm happy to sheep your vote if it's for one of {Bingle, SS}.

I don't know which of them is more likely 8-ball, my guess is Bingle because I think if we elim SS today Bingle would 1v1 me tomorrow and win with an 8-ball on me. Whereas I think SS would want to try to keep House in the mix as well as me so would want it to be true x-lo still so he can win with either mislim.

[Something_Smart]

Is your read any deeper than this?

No, other than that PoE put him at a baseline of 67% and he was highly unlikely to be the 8-ball.

[Morning Tweet]

You idly voted imaginality all day, then switched to Ali when like one person voted Wisdom and you had 8-ball suspicions.

No?

I voted Ali as a WAGONS! vote, then switched to imaginality because I realized that Wis was pushing both imagine and Ali while voting Ali and I wanted to see if anyone would bite and try to shift the wagon. I spent the majority of my time poking people who were neither of them, iirc, but I didn't have any strong reads one way or the other. I leaned slightly town on Wisdom and that was about it.

Ali accused me of scumreading him a few times iirc, to which I clarified that I didn't, and said he thought I was scum for it because I should have been able to read him despite not having played a game with him in years and the general lurker-y behavior early on.

I voted Ali with less than 24 hours left in the day because it was the only viable wagon and additionally noted my thought that Wis might be the eight ball because there were two people who had voted him with like no time left in the day and two more people who were supporting the wagon prior but weren't on it: {duck/ali/imagine/taly}. I think most of them (the exception being imagine) had also expressed willingness to shift to imagine earlier, although I'd have to double check to be sure. Notably, your slot agreed with my sentiments.

All of this has been clarified multiple times, particularly on D2.

I'm confused, what of my characterization is wrong? I'm pretty sure you voteparked imagine all day then did the Ali swap at the end

Oh my point wasn't that you didn't do *anything* D1, just that with your vote you kept it on imagine all the way, I suppose.

If you're scum with imagine, maybe a poor choice given Wisdom/Ali at the minimum could have flashed it (altho they didn't).

[Morning Tweet]

There's actually a pretty interesting SS/imagine/Bingle interaction starting page 40, post 995. Lemme summarize:

At this moment in time, there is 1 vote for Bingle/SS/imagine.

995 - SS has imagineality as his highest scumread. He says that imagine is the most likely to pick Wisdom as the 8-ball and was also Wisdom's biggest suspect. He says that Bingle is playing an unimpressive game and lolhammered the 8-ball for no reason.

997 - Imagine asks SS why he thinks imagine is most likely to pick Wisdom for 8-ball

1010 - Bingle replies to a related post of SS's. SS says that imagine's push on him is suspicious and makes him(ss) wonder if he is the 8-ball. He justifies this by saying imagine has SS as his bottom read and unlikely 8-ball.
Bingle replies by saying "No, he has me and worst as scummier than you. You misread the readslist"

SS realizes that he did and his point on imagineality is unfounded.

why do i think this interaction is important? Uhhhh well it seems to me like SS genuinely thought imagine was pushing him there. Look in 955 -- it sounds like imagine has SS the lowest. But then in 958, imagine maths out Worst and Bingle as scummier than SS. SS only responds to the first, not realizing that imagineality is in fact not pushing him at that time

It seems.. distinctly not partnered to me, I guess. Maybe I'm reaching though. How do you mix up whether or not you're getting bussed and have to be corrected by a townie?

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[imaginality]

Your conclusion (SS and I aren't partnered) is right.
But I didn't need that post to know that

[imaginality]

At the time, I felt confused as to how SS had misread my reads when the 'probability of being scum' table in 958 right after it should have made it pretty clear.

Maybe that is a point towards SS being scum because not reading closely? I think town are a touch more likely to read more closely than scum.

But that's maybe unfair in this case since 955 was ambiguous on its own and perhaps everyone else just goes "urgh, maths" and skims over 958.

[imaginality]

On the partnering point... if I were in your shoes I think I'd also see it as a sign of SS and me not being partnered.

[Morning Tweet]

Open question: who is the 8-ball?

I know imagine already answered but yea