Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[Bingle]

Open question: who is the 8-ball?

I know imagine already answered but yea

Irrelevant. The 8 ball is always going to be on scum. If I can catch both scum, which is eight ball doesn’t matter. If I can’t then the more sure scum read is always going to be the right choice. Trying to double guess whether someone might be 8 ball today is just busy work.

[Save The Dragons]

Vote Count 4.2

Not voting: Bingle, House, Something_Smart, imaginality, Morning Tweet

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to yeet

D4 ends at (expired on 2021-10-16 13:26:20)

[Bingle]

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

It’s things like this that leave me with doubt about House. Like, I know it can’t be me. And if it’s not me it’s at least one of them, but there ARE interactions that don’t look partnery. SS yesterday didn’t particularly seem like he was bussing imagine.

Individually, SS not knowing the reads of his main scumread is pretty :/, but so is imagine not following up on that so that I had to point out the misunderstanding in the first place.

If it is SS/imagine they’re playing a really strong distancing game.

[Morning Tweet]

Open question: who is the 8-ball?

I know imagine already answered but yea

Irrelevant. The 8 ball is always going to be on scum. If I can catch both scum, which is eight ball doesn’t matter. If I can’t then the more sure scum read is always going to be the right choice. Trying to double guess whether someone might be 8 ball today is just busy work.

i disagree, i think it says a lot about what someone thinks about the game state

No answer is also a fine answer though

[Something_Smart]

You all realize that I was repeatedly being asked to explain a comment that was made before imaginality clarified his reads, right?

As soon as he made that post I read it, understood it correctly, and took it into account. But people were asking me about my thought process in an earlier post, so I explained what I thought at the time.

[Something_Smart]

If the team is Bingle/imaginality the 8-ball is probably Bingle imo.

If it's not, then it's whichever of them is scum, probably.

[Something_Smart]

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I will echo imaginality here in that the conclusion is obviously right, but the logic is at least partially wrong. By the time imaginality made his reads, I understood them, but I was still explaining why I thought what I did at the time. I realize now that I didn't make that especially clear in my posts.

[Bingle]

You all realize that I was repeatedly being asked to explain a comment that was made before imaginality clarified his reads, right?

As soon as he made that post I read it, understood it correctly, and took it into account. But people were asking me about my thought process in an earlier post, so I explained what I thought at the time.

:/ Are you saying that as of 967 you didn't think imagine's push indicated you were 8 ball?

Spoiler: Full progression, for ease of reference

Funnily enough I had written a note to myself about the same idea (voting SS) to muse on before I went to sleep.

Because ironically despite Something_Smart being lower than Bingle and the worst in my individual reads, the fact he's arguably less likely to be 8-ball and can be buddies with either of them does make him possibly the best choice of the three to eliminate today. Least likely game-losing if we get it wrong. And we gain an extra mislim if we are right. Compared to if I'm right about Bingle being scum, if he's 8-ball it'll still be 8-ball-lo tomorrow. And that would be a riskier time to elim SS as he'd be more likely 8-ball then.

The cons of this idea: we didn't think Wisdom was 8-ball so maybe it's better to not try to second guess what scum have chosen.

I'm thinking about it. Breakfast first.

Probably worth noting similar thoughts should apply to people with combinations of me and Bingle or the worst in their suspects I guess, I'm probably a safer elim than either of them in terms of less likely game ending if wrong.

@Something_Smart

- how likely do

you

think it is that you're the 8-ball?

Rising rapidly.

Mathing it out, from my perspective:

Odds of people being scum (low-ball estimates)
70% Bingle is scum
60% tw is scum
40% SS is scum
20% House is scum
10% MT is scum
0% I'm scum

Odds of people being 8-ball if town (higher end estimates):
80% Bingle is 8-ball if town
40% tw is 8-ball if town
30% SS is 8-ball if town
20% House is 8-ball if town
10% MT is 8-ball if town
30% I'm 8-ball if town

Bingle lim: 70% we lim scum, 24% we lose
Tw lim: 60% we lim scum, 16% we lose
SS lim: 40% we lim scum, 12% we lose
House lim: 20% we lim scum, 4% we lose
MT lim: 10% we lim scum, 1% we lose
Me lim: 0% we lim scum, 30% we lose

This was useful I didn't think SS and the worst were so similar in terms of chances of us losing if we're wrong about them.

I'd encourage others to do a similar analysis from their perspectives.

For me the above leads me to think the right vote for me is:
VOTE: the worst

Can I take this to mean you believe my push of you is suspicious and 8-ball motivated?

Imaginality's is, but same idea.

imaginalitys push on... not you?

I mean he just listed me as his bottom read and also unlikely to be the 8-ball, so like...

I mean he just listed me as his bottom read and also unlikely to be the 8-ball, so like...

No he didn't?

Like, yes, he said you were unlikely to be the 8 ball but he also listed both me and duck as more scummy than you.

I bolded the ambiguous part of imaginality's reads which frankly I don't see as making sense at all if you don't parse them as Bingle - Duck - SS scummiest to towniest in the first place, which is the heart of my issue with SS in that exchange.

[Something_Smart]

I initially took it to mean that, although the 8-ball is normally someone who's highly scumread, I am his top scumread and unlikely to be the 8-ball, which makes me the best target.

I don't know if I've ever heard someone use "lower" to mean "townier" before. I have seen readlists organized that way, but they're very rare.

[Bingle]

That is actually a pretty reasonable parsing of what he said, actually. Taking the SS is lowest as a personal read and Bingle>Duck>SS as a perceived thread preference kinda does make sense in hindsight. Hmmm.

[Morning Tweet]

Not really my issue so much as that it reads anti-partnery to me.

[Morning Tweet]

I still feel reasonably strong about House!town.

SS and Bingle both kinda waver on House since things dont make quite as much sense when imagine is paired with the other tbh. But for imagine, Bingle/SS doesnt really have any issues. At least none I've mpticed

[Morning Tweet]

Does House have like a really good scumgame?

[Something_Smart]

It's pretty good, from what I recall. But that was a long time ago.

[House]

I still feel reasonably strong about House!town.

I don't see how that's possible, tbh.

My play has lurk scum written all over it.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: ali

I don’t really trust this sudden shift to Wis, makes me worried he’s an 8 ball, tbh.

what is this post

like actually what is it

[Something_Smart]

If Ali isn't scum I think it's 2 of {Wisdom, Mom, Bingle}.

Rule of 3 hMMMMMMM

[Something_Smart]

4 Wisdom (House, Taly, the worst, imaginality)

More food for thought. A Bingle/me team would require believing that this was all town.

But I think it makes sense with Bingle/imaginality knowing that a few townies (Alisae, Taly) were going to be pushing Wisdom and they could hop on afterward.

And I do kinda feel that Wisdom being made the 8-ball implies that the two people who voted him the day before were probably both town? Like a Bingle/imagine team could count on at least those two, and it's easy for imagine to set up a vote on him, and then go from there. But a Bingle/Alisae team would have to keep people off of Alisae and they'd have only Bingle to help with that.

[Something_Smart]

On the other hand it feels so suspect to just be like "yup my reads on replacing in were exactly right, neato" especially since I always stress how garbage my upon-replacement reads are.

So whatever, I don't think I can be objective here, the best I can do is get relevant things out in the open for MT to look at. Scum-MT has certainly got the game locked away at this point, so I probably will end up voting whoever she does.

[Something_Smart]

Eh. Fuckit. Maybe literally anyone will give my case the time of day tomorrow.

VOTE: Wisdom

This was just a deliberate scumclaim wasn't it.

It's like my hammer in Radio Buzz.

[Something_Smart]

Like I know Bingle and I know that he would do something like that. Because if he gets executed the next day then it goes right to theoretical mylo if scum can guess the execution target.

[Something_Smart]

And if that's true, and I'm his partner, then I sure as hell don't push the angle of "Bingle is 8-ball so we should leave him alone".

[Something_Smart]

Does anyone want to talk about how Bingle asked Wisdom a question, then hammered before getting an answer? That seemed (especially in hindsight with the 8-ball flip) scummy to me.

Whoa, look who comes out of the woodwork pushing Bingle on D3 after not having done so on the previous days?

(This one's actually not confbias because I didn't remember that imaginality did this when I made the above posts.)

[Something_Smart]

Yeah uh

I'm hopelessly confbiased at this point but my guess firmly goes to Bingle/imagine.

[Something_Smart]

I'm still not sure, but right now I lean towards the idea you're partners.

Vote townie fos buddy