In theory that makes the most sense, since Stagehands know where the bullet is. Randomizing it is a pro-town move.
However, in practice, that is not my best move, or the best move for town (it nulls a potential mafia ploy if we are both town, one that can be turned on its head if I play in an unexpected way). I think you are mafia. So if you are mafia, where does the bullet go? I have decided that it is very unlikely that the bullet is in the first position. I think mafia expect me to either reroll immediately or shoot at you immediately (under the impression that I am aggro in these kinds of games).
If I randomize the location, I put myself at a disadvantage for no reason. I meant what I said about being good at these kinds of games.
The most likely place for the bullet to be in position 3 or position 4. When given a choice, people often pick the middle, and both of those numbers are close enough that you could manipulate it. This assumes that you are scum and are trying to play this game in a fairly neutral way where you don't essentially scum claim after, while still giving yourself a good chance of winning.
So, I'm shooting myself. If by chance the bullet is in slot 1, then this was meant to frame me and Toog is also town (and so even though I've "lost" the duel, we make the best of the bad scenario).
If toog is mafia like I suspect, and the bullet is in position 3 or 4, then they have no way to counter-attack me.
If the bullet is in position 2, then it was set there because toog is mafia - because either I shoot myself, or they get to shoot at me. Of course, from town Toog point of view, shooting the second bullet at me is nonsense and a scum claim, it doesn't make any sense. The only reason the bullet would be in 2 if he is town is to frame them, and if they believe that I am scum then the bullet has no business being in position 2 because it gives them the opportunity to shoot me.
Fire gun at self
