newbie 2080: correct statements (this is over)

[Spangled]

Spangled, you don't think Thyn is scum, nor do you think Val, Margot or Vulture are scum, therefore the scum pair is most likely DArby and myself?
Do you honestly believe that?

oh man I hadn’t considered the consequences of having that many townreads
uh, I don’t really know, in the end

I

hope

it’s true, it would be nice and neat
like I said, if you flip green, I’m up a creek

[MargotRosa]

Spoiler:

VOTE: Thynhith

So, going through this ISO quickly, I come out of it thinking... there's no one that Thynhith can't be partnered with except Facebones, and even then I feel like there is a /chance/ that it is SvS, because this is the hardest stance that he's taken all game. It's very forceful.

Understood.

For what it is worth, I think Facebones is looking fairly scummy following his response to questioning today.

In normal circumstances, I would be voting there after that, but I still can't shake the feeling that Spangled was TMIing FB as town D1. Thyn tells me he considers Spangles' read to be legitimate, and it's a playstyle thing, but I found that a little unsatisfying given I noticed he took issue at Galron giving a town read on Roden when Rodens' ISO at the time was more comprehensive than FBs.

We are waiting to hear from Roden; I'll see if Spangle's answers can help me resolve the problem I am having, and I think we need to hear a little more from Thyn as to where he stands on issue of Facebones, because I am still struggling to move past a null read there - I've read through the ISO again tonight and still nothing is jumping out in either direction.

My issue with Galron was the lack of substance in his townread, not the read itself. Spangled at least tried to justify his own read, which makes it more legitimate in my book.

As for FB, let me put it this way: take how scummy I am, and FB is scummier than that. This post in particular:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Facebones

What's your deal?

I'm just not a big fan of D1's, there's no information to go off. Apologies for my lurky play, but for me it's easier to class people as either town or scum from their interactions with other players and seeing which ones I think are legitimate. It might be stupid or whatever, but I feel if I interrupt these people's interactions it'll interfere with the flow and I won't be able to get a clear a read on them as what I could.

If they'd left him alone, he'd be drawing all the heat on D2

Would he have been?

Spangled was the only one Galron was really scumreading/pressuring.

Galron stopped scumreading/pressuring Spangled on page 8, didn't he? He then moved onto Cook (voting for her twice and declaring intent) and myself.

My perspective on the TvT scenario is that if Margot or Val have one scum between them, killing the other or me makes more sense than killing Galron.

Just to touch on this a bit, why would scum Val or scum Margot NK you if you incorrectly labeled them as town? Wouldn't that be more of an incentive to keep you around?

Margot, Thynhith, DArby, anyone- I'm here to answer all questions in order to clear up confusion you may have about my alignment

@Facebones

Here you're trying to justify yourself lurking D1. Do you really expect us to believe that was due to your "preference"? I've metaread you. In your games you make over 25 posts D1. And have you gleaned a single thing from lurking all of D1? Nada, you're still rereading. You're not even keeping up to the game. Oh and by the way, quoting snippets in Post 587 and 599 and responding doesn't make you any townier. You have no reads, you have no opinions. If "it's easier to class people as either town or scum from their interactions with other players," you've classed not a single player.

"I'm here to answer all questions in order to clear up confusion you may have about my alignment"
is such a desperate sentence. Townies know they are town. They don't clear up confusion weakly, they proclaim their towniness openly. This is just optics. You don't even sound convinced you are town, because you're not.
I admire your boldness in attempting to convince us your scumlurking was a legit strat, but I'm going to have to VOTE: Facebones

FB is at E-2, curious what he says before we elim him.

TOWN: Spangled (still a bit sus of the super early town read of me and going along with Cook's strat, but does seem to be trying to spark conversation (which is NAI, I know, but to me it doesn't feel forced). I do have similar concerns with DArby as he outlined in 213. Also he stands by his thoughts and doesn't seem to be wishy washy and easily swayed even if those thoughts aren't broadly accepted and go against the grain)

Val: (one of the same reason as Spangled (albeit in a more accusatory manner)- he's asking people questions and genuinely seems to be trying to solve this. His interrogation of me comes across as a genuine townie)


NULL: Thynhith, Roden


SCUM: Margot (for putting forth a decent case on Cook and essentially at the point of no return backtracking and started TR-ing her for reasons still unbeknownst to me)

DArby (due to his constant pushing to try and secure the Cook elim, I've still got my beliefs he's trying to line up townies)

Just a coincidence you're scumreading the guys on your wagon, eh?
Well since you scumread Darby for pushing Cook's wagon, did Val not do the same, and arguably more aggressively? Yet you're townreading him. Margot backtracked, and she was correct in reading Cook as town. Do you think that was TMI coming from scum?
Your readlist comes across as extremely shallow.

just, sorry, haven’t read the last two pages, just wanted to say that quickly
his crumbs — or one of them, at least — were so obvious that I was pretty sure he wasn’t a PR, just either bad scum setting up a fakeclaim or a VT trying to draw the scum shot
what a play! what a fellow!

that’s the thing I deliberated on talking about before D1 end, btw, but I decided (rightly) it’d be better to wait, just in case he

was

in fact a PR, because to out him like that would be a wee bit embarrassing heh

This post is where Spangled draws attention to Galron crumbing to draw the NK. I'm assuming you must have read it while casing Spangled. Imo it was a scumplay drawing attention to the reason for their own kill - what did you think of it?

I feel more confident town reading DArby. I feel more confident scum reading Val. Roden is slipping into scum territory quickly. FB is Null. Thyn is still likely scum. I don't remember who the seventh slot is lol

VOTE: Thyn

What makes FB null for you? He's so blatantly scum, we have to lim him. Unless you can offer a better alternative, and I don't see how I'm scummier than he is? I'm scumreading him harder than I scumread Cook, he's lurked through D1 and barely seems motivated. His posts have nothing to show from reading our iso and he seems hellbent on not helping us at all. If you could offer a better alternative I'm happy to listen to you. Btw, you're missing spangled from your list.

I get where you're coming from on Val and Roden, but do you think them scummier than FB?

Compared to these, which I feel are a lot more... unsure? Unwilling to really press down hard.

I'm flip flopping on Spangled.

Val89's catchup posts, if that's what they are, underwhelm me. Cook's strategy isn't going to be implemented, and while it's fine to talk about players' reactions to the proposal, focusing on the substance of the strategy is futile, and I believe of little value when it comes to reads. (Maybe other than Cook's, but I haven't seen it yet)

Terse and dispassionate is actually a good description of me, Spangled. Unless I get a couple of drinks in me

Quite frankly, they're not any more underwhelming than your posts. There's no issue with you being "terse and dispassionate," but nearly all your posts lack substance. You've posted many one-liners that add nothing of value, and your responses to questions seem to be dodging an answer, rather than an answer proper. I'd expect town to be sharing views and analyzing posts, not giving off vague impression reads. All anti-town. Would love to see some reasons for your Spangled read?

pedit: I love how you're sheeping Val

Spoiler:

I'm townleaning spangles.

weren’t you scumreading me before? what’s changed?

A re-read of the game.

What did you see, in your reread?

A hint you may be town.

Margot is a dead null.

I don't understand the town reads on facebones

Unless that person is Cook, because how can you be alert to an open wolf if you don't feel like reading their lengthy posts?

This proposes that you aren't reading her posts also.

Facebones, can you show me how my not reading those posts leads to me not being aware of their contents?

Giving Roden a town read.

galron I'm not sure how you came to that read after only 5 posts, can you explain your thinking? you mentioned you were a "town hunter" before

Now you're here Galron, still waiting to see why you townread Roden?

A little more familiarty with him.

Sorry I've been out of town (pardon the pun) for the last few days, but I have reread or skimmed the entirety of D1 so far.
"Spangled, on the other hand is much more straightforward, and everything else aside, if they aren't the pair; and I have to decide if I am in a newbie game where mafia is trying to scam us with a ridiculous display of open-wolfing, or a more traditional nervous newbscum just slipping here and there slightly, and I think that being honest with myself I have to conclude the latter as more probable."
Val the issue I have here is I think you're tunneling too hard. You're picking up on lots of small "tells" here and there and it looks like a plausible newbscum. I see much of this attributed to personal playstyle. Which posts do you think have a nervous tone to them? His constant questioning seems like his choice, rather than aiming to misdirect town. I would say he is scumleaning at most, and certainly more pro-town than Galron. Both of them I wouldn't lim D1.
My preference for D1 would be Cook, on account of the questionable strat she pushed. I'm not willing to support any wagon yet tho - I feel there's a scum we're not seeing

@Val can I get your opinion on the possibility of scum!Darby?
I'm starting to sound like spangled now, aren't I?
Yeah I've pretty much decided now - barring anything unexpectedly damning, my top preference is Cook. VOTE: Cook
Val I dislike how you initially zoned in on her strat, and I'm not comfortable using that alone, but it's her other anti-town behaviour that makes scum!Cook much more likely (periodic lurking, no substance, refusal to cooperate, etc)

Phew I was not expecting a full read list, but I'll take it. Fairly reassuring that you have similar reads to me (or maybe too reassuring). I considered Roden and Darby to be townleaning, though I don't have your prior experience with them to say that with as much confidence. Mainly because they the ones pushing people and contributing discussion, consistently. As for Facebones and Margot, I still consider them both null, who lack enough content for me to be sure. Margot's interaction with Cook seemed genuine enough, so I don't think her misreads make her scumleaning. Galron I consider scumleaning, and I'm not sure I could justify reading him as town with such blatantly anti-town behavior. "make it clear HE is following and thinking in the same directions I am, like and 295" is rather ironic because he immediately follows 295 with

VOTE: mewtaph

What say you, mew?

..showing he missed something as important as a replacement.
Anyways, those are my thoughts. Already said how Spangled is too ambiguous to lim now. I'm very curious about how Cook will flip, and about who gets NKd.

On one hand we still have both scum but on the other we have both power roles.

VOTE: Val

Why are you still alive?

VOTE: Val would like to know as well. In any case, this makes me townlean Spangled. Val's primary scumreads were Cook and Spangled. If Val is scum, Spangled is unlikely to be as well. If Val was town and pushing scum!spangled then scum would take out Val instead, so perhaps Val you were pushing a town!spangled D1?
Why do you think scum didn't NK you?

I want to see this flip. But it's time for me to leave work.

Funny people mentioning Facebones because there's something about that slot that doesn't sit right and I wanted to get deeper into it.

But there were a couple of townie things from Facebones as well, like when he pushed back at me.

And also:
"Spangled I'm back and forth on. Facebones leaning scum. Val leaning scum (very lightly bc of little content and I don't remember what the predecessor did)"

These are pretty much his final reads. He probably ends up townreading Val more towards EoD (see above post)
I believe he also said Margot was null, though his read may have changed.

It's really a shame he never gave much reasoning for these..

pedit: Ah interesting take by Galron. Given how Cook flipped, I do wonder if Val was tunneling her for towncred

Ok, lets assume the NK was intentional (even tho it likely wasn't). What are our logical conclusions?
Probably that Spangled felt pressured by Galron, or whoever scum are, they're distanced from Galron, interaction-wise. Spangled was the only one Galron was really scumreading/pressuring.
Since we know the NK was likely intentional, it's possible scum are trying to throw shade on spangled, or are really someone Galron's townread. By Galron flipping green, those townread would get towncred.
Who benefits from shade on spangled? Val, who was tunneling him and pushing for his elim D1. There's no one Galron was really townreading.

I'm falling down the wifom rabbit hole so fast, remind me not to do this again. ^^The above is all speculation, please take none of it as my opinion

I still don't like Darby.

For whatever reason? Or just your gut feeling? I note that you scumread both Darby and Galron for large amounts of filler. Now Galron's flipped green, still confident about your Darby read?

Tbh both of you guys "feel" town to me, it's mainly FB/Roden I'm concerned with

Val’s still alive because scum killed Galron for crumbing.

Amen. Galrons last words were, refering to me, were "Maybe you'll be protected tonight, if that's where you're going."

I am inclinded to treat with suspicion anyone who is advancing theories as to why Galron was selected as the NK without acknoledging that, given what was said in twilight, scum would be forced to consider the possibility they wouldn't be able to take a shot a me without going through Galron first. It looks he basically threw himself in the path of the bullet like a secret service agent, and I am asking myself why some slots are speculating on Galrons reads, etc, and are pretending they didn't see that he was crumbing pretty hard.

Maybe you'll be protected tonight, if that's where you're going.

I must admit the possibility of his last words being a crumb totally went over my head. It does make sense in hindsight, and far better explanation than newbscum or endless wifom.
"pretending they didn't see that he was crumbing pretty hard" - it may be obvious for you but not half as much for not half as experienced players.

If

they are S/S, the explanation for this shift is that: it is easier to notice scummy things about your partner than it is anyone else, and you do not want to test the waters by throwing something out there, so you softball it. But with Facebones it's nothing held back, which is just... jarring, compared to everything else.

This is a good post

For this, and other reasons, I have come around to voting for Facebones. Aside from anything else, I think it's the most useful PoE vote, and helps sort other slots better than other slots who may be better and clearer scum reads

VOTE: Facebones

[MargotRosa]

Didn't realise, but should have, that spoiler tags don't nest. I have shamed myself

[Facebones]

Ah well
What slots will be better sorted if I flip green? What about red?

[MargotRosa]

Ah well
What slots will be better sorted if I flip green? What about red?

Green Facbones will make me focus on these three:
- Thynhith
- Spangled
- Val89

Red Facebones downs scum, and will make me focus on these:
- DArby
- Vulture (SE) Roden

I will explain later if desired, I'm just about to go into a late night meeting x

[Spangled]

hey wtf wasn’t that a hammer

[Spangled]

yeah, it was; I put him at E-1

before the thread locks, Margot, I want to ask again, what’s your Thyn read and its basis?

[Spangled]

dangit Margot did you nope in, hammer FB, not answer my question and then nope out again

[Val89]

I'm more concerned about the fact that hammer appears to have been dropped before a claim.

I'm in agreement with the choice of lim, and would have likley come and done it myself after announcing intent, but I'm not feeling all that great about Margots progression on this wagon either..

[MargotRosa]

I genuinely didn't realise it was e-1

[MargotRosa]

I don't really have a solid Thyn read, other than agreeing generally that I doubt someone with as empty an ISO as Thyn has is teamed up with FB

[MargotRosa]

Like, the limited context in the post where I voted for Thyn is about as much as I'm willing to give

[MargotRosa]

Or indeed, that I have

[DArby]

As for 704... I kind of like it, which I kind of hate. Lmao.

It's just a hard pill for me to swallow I guess. Like, from my position I'm like "yeah we need to kill people who aren't cooperating" but then seeing someone else say it makes me go "no, you don't get to do that!! You are setting up bad things!" So, you wording it like "I felt like she might flip green BUUUUT die anyways" is just... yeah.

Unsure of how to litigate that.

What would you rather happen? With all due respect Cook really only provided game breaking meta and disappeared when pressured. It’s so weird?? I had my doubts but it was the best option I had.

What do you mean by setting up bad things?

There's not a lot more that can be asked, which is why I said I was unsure how to litigate it. In truth, it's something that I just kind of have to shrug at and accept it happened and wonder internally the motivation.

By setting up bad things I, /believe/ they said that they wanted to flip... Facebones and then consider Spangled, which if Facebones is town then tomorrow if Spangled is town game over. Setting up a chain elim like that is bleh.

This is the second time Margot miscounted a hammer she did.

As much as I'd like to think this is AI, I really think this might explain a few issues I've had with this slot

[DArby]

Ah well
What slots will be better sorted if I flip green? What about red?

Green Facbones will make me focus on these three:
- Thynhith
- Spangled
- Val89

Red Facebones downs scum, and will make me focus on these:
- DArby
- Vulture (SE) Roden

I will explain later if desired, I'm just about to go into a late night meeting x

Why are Thyn and I on different focuses when we've agreed for most of d2? Is it because of his near wagon?

[DArby]

I don't know what reads I'd go for d3 until I see who the nk is, if any at all.

This is such a strange game where I don't trust anyone sans potentially Val and maybe Thyn but that's in the air.

[schadd_]

food is fine

d2 final vote count

Facebones (4):

DArby, Thynhith, Spangled, MargotRosa

Thynhith (2):

Facebones, Vulture

not voting (1):

Val89

with 7 alive, it took 4 to eliminate.

[schadd_]

Facebones has been eliminated! he was a

vanilla townie

!

night 2 begins now and ends in (expired on 2021-10-20 16:15:00). if you have night actions, please indicate them to me by PM or by posting in a PT when relevant. i will start the next day sooner if everyone PMs me asking that i do so.

[schadd_]

DArby has been killed in the night! he was a

vanilla townie

!

[schadd_]

wine cannot freeze or evaporate

vote count 3.0

not voting (5):

Thynhith, MargotRosa, Spangled, Val89, Vulture

with 5 alive, it takes 3 to eliminate. day 3 starts now and ends in (expired on 2021-10-27 16:20:00)

[MargotRosa]

Ok, well it's Spangled and Thynhith then

[MargotRosa]

There's no universe in which it is anyone else and DArby is the one eliminated

[Val89]

Why am I still alive, though?

A Spangled/Thyn team would appear to have made life harder for themselves...

[Val89]

I also find myself a little doubtful whenever a night kill strongly points to a particular scum or scum team - it isn't as if scum can't take that into account when selecting the kill.

[Vulture]