Open 833: Twin Trap [Postgame]

[Noraa]

Yesterday's "oh geez" accidental hammer needs to be held accountable and that is why I am voting Noraa. They need to be at least on the table for elimination today.

I might be tunneled but bruh wtf. You sound like whiny scum like whining WHY ISNT THIS TOWN MISLIMMABLE.

It's also a strange thing to say given only Norwee has expressed a TR on me as of today.

[Noraa]

I'm not going to go too deep into it now, but i have an method of reading Noraa that i think is pretty good. But it requires some more input from them.

Your meta is probably out of date but I mean idk how you get ur reads but if I'm a tr, we can just say the method is right
You should tell me what the tell is. I love self meta >.<

[Noraa]

but also like, he clearly made that first comment BEFORE isoing aka "looking back at" almost50, sooo what's your deal exactly?

uhhhhhhh ok? how does that have to do with anything

[Noraa]

But they're unlikely to be confbiasing because they expressed a tr on me D1 so it's more likely these posts come from a scum agenda.

hahahahahahah this applies to you far better than myself unfortunately

this sounds ridiculous and if you want anyone to take it seriously you better do some PbPA

I dont know what PbPA is but it really doesn't so like..

[Noraa]

But they're unlikely to be confbiasing because they expressed a tr on me D1 so it's more likely these posts come from a scum agenda.

hahahahahahah this applies to you far better than myself unfortunately

this sounds ridiculous and if you want anyone to take it seriously you better do some PbPA

What?

MINDMELD NUMERO DOS!!!
Ok Norwee ur my soul mason starting today.

[Noraa]

Nora's post sounds baseless and omgus

lol if the scum team is actually deimos and redtea, they're making this too easy

[Noraa]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Could be but NM is an asset to town until proven scum so no I'd rather not. I'll try to poke him a bit today to get some content.

[Noraa]

In my experience scum likes not to post in twilight when they haven't already established a recent presence in thread because it's just less cognitive load to wait when you know day will end soon anyway than to show up and fake more posts.

yeah but of course this doesn't apply to noraa ..... because she's mislim bait :3

well anyways I hope you're town

[catboi]

Vote Count 2.01

Not_Mafia (2):	Tamora's Angel, redtea
Noraa (1):	Deimos27
Not Voting (4):	Not_Mafia, NorwegianboyEE, Kop, Noraa

With 7 alive, it's 4 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is November 1 at 4:30 PM EST. Deadline timer:

(expired on 2021-11-01 16:30:00)

[NorwegianboyEE]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Could be but NM is an asset to town until proven scum so no I'd rather not. I'll try to poke him a bit today to get some content.

I wasn’t gonna immediately throw down on it, but i think the N_M wagon is really bad.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Imagine putting pressure on N_M and getting a good reply.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Anyway.
VOTE: Kop for now.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I don't see why scum Norwee defends me here. Norwee have you played any games with me where I was town? (besides the most recent gensoko or whatever it was called)

It is true that you’ve disproportionately have been scum in our previous games, but that should hopefully make it easier for me to recognize.
You were town in the boon game.

[Tamora's Angel]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Could be but NM is an asset to town until proven scum so no I'd rather not. I'll try to poke him a bit today to get some content.

I'm not seeing how NM is an asset right now. Don't get me wrong, he can be a liability as town but I feel a bit PoE on his slot.

[Tamora's Angel]

Yesterday's "oh geez" accidental hammer needs to be held accountable and that is why I am voting Noraa. They need to be at least on the table for elimination today.

I agree Noraa can't live until elo.

[Noraa]

@Norwee I think the wagon is fine. NM hasn't been doing much but he does have great reads so I'm not really interested in elimming him. I think pressure is fine and hopefully we get some content out of him.

If he is being super quiet, I'll have to think about it more because then I'll feel like it's my fault if town loses by hammering town NM in elo. But I'll also feel like it's my fault if scum NM gets hard defended by me and wins the game. So that's a kinda sucky situation to put myself in.

[Noraa]

Anyway.
VOTE: Kop for now.

Why?

I don't see why scum Norwee defends me here. Norwee have you played any games with me where I was town? (besides the most recent gensoko or whatever it was called)

It is true that you’ve disproportionately have been scum in our previous games, but that should hopefully make it easier for me to recognize.
You were town in the boon game.

That was the one where I got really frustrated day 1 and self hammered wasn't it @_@

[Noraa]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Could be but NM is an asset to town until proven scum so no I'd rather not. I'll try to poke him a bit today to get some content.

I'm not seeing how NM is an asset right now. Don't get me wrong, he can be a liability as town but I feel a bit PoE on his slot.

His reads that I've seen in past games have all been game winning. I mean obviously we need to wait and let this day play out and see what happens. But just in general, currently I do think we should leave him be.

Yesterday's "oh geez" accidental hammer needs to be held accountable and that is why I am voting Noraa. They need to be at least on the table for elimination today.

I agree Noraa can't live until elo.

Dont worry my slot should self resolve pretty soon.

[catboi]

Prodding Kop and Not_Mafia (per the rules, I am considering 341 as a prodge)

[NorwegianboyEE]

@Norwee I think the wagon is fine. NM hasn't been doing much but he does have great reads so I'm not really interested in elimming him. I think pressure is fine and hopefully we get some content out of him.

If he is being super quiet, I'll have to think about it more because then I'll feel like it's my fault if town loses by hammering town NM in elo. But I'll also feel like it's my fault if scum NM gets hard defended by me and wins the game. So that's a kinda sucky situation to put myself in.

In what games has he had: "great reads"?

[redtea]

nm death tunneled dunn in true love 1028 from the get go and he was on the money and i never forgot

[redtea]

then again it was like three months ago or something

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: Noraa quote 1

Pray tell why you would assume my comment pertained to the Dorsey flip instead of the almost50 nk, especially given all the context immediately following?

almost was literally almost certainly not vt by tone and the way he was so slippery feeling. i dont see how anyone can look back and be like oh its surprising almost was a pr.

I said "almost50

nk

" how is this even being twisted into me being surprised that he's pr instead of being surprised he was the NK choice at all.

These posts look so agenda driven it's kind of mindnumbing

That's the exact same thing. I don't really want to spell out the typical behavior of prs for scum but had I not known A50's meta, I would've thought he was a pr instead of scum.

It's not the exact same thing at all. You have this very strange habit of assuming everyone else needs to think exactly how you do for them to be town. It backfired with Dorsey and it's backfiring with me. I don't play town trying to pr hunt, and I had no reason to think A50 was likelier to be pr than scum, and in the latter case he obviously would not be the NK.

The reason I emphasise I was surprised he was the NK rather than I was surprised he was PR is because P(pr!A50 = True | A50 = NK) >>> P(A50 = NK). As soon as I see he's the NK (which surprises me) I obviously immediately make the inference that such an NK can only happen when he has been read as PR, and so the flip does not surprise me.

Spoiler: Noraa quote 2

Pray tell why you would assume my comment pertained to the Dorsey flip instead of the almost50 nk, especially given all the context immediately following?

almost was literally almost certainly not vt by tone and the way he was so slippery feeling. i dont see how anyone can look back and be like oh its surprising almost was a pr.

That is not what I was expecting

Well this is scummy. You've had a whole night to process the flip and you're saying Dorsey flipping town is surprising?

I think these posts are actually very interesting cause there's 0 chance anyone else misunderstood me; the context is super obvious. So it tells us Noraa is either confbiasing me or driving a lim on me out of scum agenda.

But they're unlikely to be confbiasing because they expressed a tr on me D1 so it's more likely these posts come from a scum agenda.

Nahhhhhhhh that was a pretty reasonable thing to assume. In hindsight, A50 is not at all a strange kill but I don't think elaborating on that is a good idea at this point in time. I actually dont believe I expressed a TR on you d1. My opinion of my read on you was that it was surface level towny. By no means a TR. Surface level towny and town towny are super different things.

You keep saying it's reasonable without substantiating that claim at all.
You never said I was "surface level towny", you only said "Deimos towny", and that's what I was working off of when I said you tr'd me D1. It's certainly close enough to a tr to establish that you weren't tunneling me and therefore had no reason to confbias at the start of this day, which is all I need.

Spoiler: big quote chopped up and w/ responses

Why would it be from a scum agenda?
And tbf, i didn’t really know myself whether your first comment was referring to the D1 flip, the nightkill, or both.

I have the perception of being fairly townread at the moment and so there is scum motivation to eliminate me (or otherwise sow discord and prevent a townblock from forming that includes me). I could obviously be wrong about being townread, but in any case I also know I am town and that alone is scum motivation to eliminate me.

Furthermore the argument was that it must be scum agenda

because

it cannot be town-motivated and scum agenda is the only option that remains.

I apparently stand corrected about the level of ambiguity my first post contained but surely you find it weird that Noraa

assumed

one uncharitable interpretation over any other instead of asking, and then proceeded even to somehow misread my follow-up explanation and misinterpret in a different uncharitable way?

Let me sum up your argument for you. "I am town. Therefore SRs on me come from scum"
If you think that as town, thats a bit disappointing.

How many times are you going to misrepresent my argument? "I'm town therefore sr's on me come from scum", are you kidding me I never said that nor would I ever say that. Let me remind you what my argument was.

P1: The degree of uncharitable that Noraa's interpretation of me was comes only from scum or confbiasing town
P2: It cannot be coming from confbiasing town
C: Therefore it is coming from scum

Norwee was asking why I think there's scum motivation. Do I really need to explain to you why scum might be motivated to sr town?
Let's look at some basic conditionals in their logical form:

(1) if [scum!Noraa = True] then [Noraa would sr me]
(2) if [Noraa sr's me] then [scum!Noraa = True]

I have never suggested anything along the lines of (2); that is your own invention. Whenever we're talking about whether there's possible scum motivation we're exploring whether it is

coherent

to think of you as scum, as in (1), not whether you definitely

are

scum, as any discussion of

that

would also require reference to town motivations.

Ftr since we're talking about yesterday, I think your positioning around the Dorsey wagon was pretty scummy. I wanted to say this earlier just felt like it'd look OMGUSy.

Yesterday, you basically started the wagon. But then somehow at the end of the day, it seemed like you were the most against the wagon.

Norwee and I started the wagon, this is true. I did so on the basis of a tell that I later explicitly claimed to have "deteriorated in value" for reasons that were completely consistent with the reasons for which I disagreed with your scumread at the end of the day (abstract impersonal analysis vs personalised consistency of mentality analysis). I still said Dorsey was a "good wagon" when I moved to redtea because I believed their playstyle to be intrinsically anti-town regardless of alignment.

Now, when a flashwagon emerged for veiled "this is a scumclaim" reasons, of course I was suspicious of that. And when you elaborated on your reasons I thought they were rubbish so of course I continued to be suspicious. In my mind the probability of Dorsey being scum was plummeting solely because the wagon looked so bad that I figured there had to be scum on it.

You were looking a lot like stubborn town who needed convincing on scum dorsey.
But with a town flip, it 100% looks like scum not wanting to take any part in a town elimination.

If you thought I was town when you thought Dorsey was flipping scum then in that world I obviously couldn't know Dorsey's alignment (because I'm town). So the fact that Dorsey instead flipped town actually shouldn't change the amount of town motivation you were observing. So to say "100%" is disingenuous because you have to admit that there is a chance I could still be "stubborn town".

Then you start off this day with a vote on me.

This all looks exactly like what someone who feels extremely guilty would do. Like immediately shift attention to the person who hammered on accident. Which to be honest, my scum game is really fucking good. I dont just lolhammer like that. In fact I'm willing to bet the number of times I've hammered as scum is like less than a fourth the amount I've hammered as town. I always see hammers as the person who is responsible and scum me does not want to take responsibility for shit.

See saying that if I'm guilty I'd push you is uninformative because you aren't combining it with analysis that if I'm town I then

wouldn't

push you. Since you did self meta I'll do self meta. Games where I'm town and someone badly hammers a townie D1, I remember following up D2 by pushing on that hammerer. It's a matter of principle, and it's simply been a strategy that works. I appreciate that if you don't tend to hammer as scum that may be a valid consideration that decreases the probability that you are scum but I am hard pressed to believe you regularly come across situations with quite as many good excuses for opportunism as this (last VC ten years ago, flashwagon builds up with little to no explicit rationale, micro game so you can claim you were unused to how few votes constitute an elim).

I see you as extremely scummy right now and if you are town, you need to realize that you aren't towny in my eyes and that doesn't make me scum. If we dont get a scum elimination today, tomorrow is elo so if you're town, you need to work with me.

I see you as extremely scummy too, and I fully accept that me not being towny in your eyes isn't a

sufficient

condition for you being scum. I never claimed it was, and my argument rests on more nuance than that.

I'll work with you on the off-chance you're town, though. If you're town I think both scum are in {NM, redtea, Kop} by pure PoE, while {scum!NM ^ scum!redtea} looks least likely out of the combinations because redtea was well enough positioned to vote you instead of bussing their partner, so it would be quite surprising that they chose the bus. So in the world where you are town voting Kop should always hit scum, because the only two remaining teams are {Kop, NM} and {Kop, redtea}.

[Deimos27]

Yesterday's "oh geez" accidental hammer needs to be held accountable and that is why I am voting Noraa. They need to be at least on the table for elimination today.

I might be tunneled but bruh wtf. You sound like whiny scum like whining WHY ISNT THIS TOWN MISLIMMABLE.

It's also a strange thing to say given only Norwee has expressed a TR on me as of today.

Why is it a strange thing to explain a vote? Are you likelier to be voted by others if they

don't

know why I'm voting you?

[Deimos27]

In my experience scum likes not to post in twilight when they haven't already established a recent presence in thread because it's just less cognitive load to wait when you know day will end soon anyway than to show up and fake more posts.

yeah but of course this doesn't apply to noraa ..... because she's mislim bait :3

well anyways I hope you're town

I'm glad you hope I'm town because I am in fact town.

I on the other hand wish you would put more effort into reading my posts because I feel like I have to keep correcting you on things that really shouldn't need correcting. Let's look at what I wrote here. "In my experience scum likes not to post in twilight

when they haven't already established a recent presence in thread

...". You were literally the hammer. Furthermore, scum!you would need to stick around to sell this idea that you are

unaware

of hammering.