Open 834: Trust Fall - Game Over

[numberQ]

Trust Count (2.2)

cool cookie

[0]

Enchant

[0]

Infinity 324

[0]

Klick

[0]

MafMen

[0]

Prism

[0]

Tammy

[2] cool cookie, Prism

Wisdom

[0]

Distrustful:

Enchant, Infinity 324, Klick, MafMen, Tammy, Wisdom

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-11-08 14:39:53)

Klick has been prodded.

[cool cookie]

I would be impressed but surprised if Tammy trusted me over Prism today. I do think it's inevitable Tammy picks Prism, but would prefer not to rush - we have 12 days, it wouldnt hurt to use another day or 2 to chat before we lose 2 more people.

My gut feeling is still to be wary of Prism. One issue is - if Prism is town, given Tammy has expressed some doubts in the read, why aren't scum trying to at least give an alternative (playing devil's advocate you could say I'm scum by that logic, but I know I'm not). A successful town pairing today gives scum no margin for error in subsequent days, even though they will have greater ability to influence the town.

[cool cookie]

just catching up on last few pages. slightly surprised to see the charm offensive from Prism to Tammy - seems like a very eager push to lock in a reciprocated trust and leave the game, which doesn't accord well with a player who holds themselves to high standards and would perhaps be happy to remain around to influence the crunch decision(s) later. If Prism really believes she can leave whenever she wants and really cares about solving the game, not sure I understand why she would be so desperate to leave today and not play a part in those decision(s). still reading...

[Prism]

The entire reconsideration of the block was started by my insistence on rereading and double-checking. The plan was for Tammy to go with Enchant then Wisdom goes with me tomorrow. I have no reason to panic as scum and grovel at Tammy's feet for a trust.

I have every reason to double check on Enchant and every reason to be frustrated with the prospect of a dysfunctional and inactive final four.

[MafMen]

just catching up on last few pages. slightly surprised to see the charm offensive from Prism to Tammy - seems like a very eager push to lock in a reciprocated trust and leave the game, which doesn't accord well with a player who holds themselves to high standards and would perhaps be happy to remain around to influence the crunch decision(s) later. If Prism really believes she can leave whenever she wants and really cares about solving the game, not sure I understand why she would be so desperate to leave today and not play a part in those decision(s). still reading...

?
thats what you took from what she said?
big misrep there

[cool cookie]

I'm very worried now that there is scum in the block,

if only because no one is even trying to break out of it

. Perhaps both alignments are worried about the very perception of trying to break out of it.

I am very disappointed that Infinity/Klick have not given serious input into the blocks or made real forays into solving the game. I hope whoever is town is ready to shoulder the loss in 4 way.

TMI - assumes I'm town? or maybe just forgot me, as i'd made the same point earlier

Do you have a specific reason to be wary of me?

I'm going to be arrogant but direct: There's no reason to worry about my alignment anymore. Not a single player currently thinks I'm scum. No one is trying to get in the way of my pairing off. You could argue I'm splitting hairs over Enchant so I can leave, but there's no need. Wisdom wanted to leave with me tomorrow, so all I have to do is wait. If I'm scum with one of Wisdom/Enchant, maybe this extended distancing/demoralization would make some sense to really put the game away, but this is not only counterfactual but extremely tenuous and there's no reason to even raise the red flag. Wisdom's plan had me leaving with him, so that pairing especially should really go out the window.

And if my partner isn't Enchant/Wisdom, why am I even trying to leave? The final 4 is a coinflip shitshow with basically a 50% EV regardless of which of them my partner is. I don't do 50/50s. If there is even a ghost of a chance of losing the game, I will do whatever it takes [/b]to crush the town completely.

All of this should be enough to believe I am town, but even in a hypothetical world where none of the above is true, it is welldocumented that I am happy to demoralize and demotivate town and make the game unfun to play. If scum-me wants to get out, it's probably mutually beneficial to let me, because otherwise I'm going to keep sucking the energy out of the game.

Unfortunately this is a really good illustration of why it makes more sense for you to be scum here than town. If you are a player who really cares about winning, why try so hard to leave? In my head, Prism-town wants to stay and help unpick the challenging 'coinflip' to maximise chances of victory (especially given Prism's own doubts about Enchant and Wisdom being town given the complacent vibes in thread). Prism-scum wants to leave because that's half the wincon achieved, but presumably trusts partner to get a trust also.

I think, with a cool breeze and fresh eyes, the idea of a 'final 4 coinflip' being locked in is a bit of a false dilemma when we get down to the final 6, as the final 6 will be in the same situation as Tammy now - faced with a genuine conundrum of who to trust.

I won't get into the final bit which seems to amount to "Tammy, even if I'm scum, you should just throw the game and trust me, or I'm gonna be a jerk to everyone and ruin the game". Have to say that's a big red flag.

So yeah, if it was me, I probably don't trust Prism today. I think town-Prism would agree with me. If that means looking outside of me and Prism, I actually think that's preferable - time is on our side.

[cool cookie]

just catching up on last few pages. slightly surprised to see the charm offensive from Prism to Tammy - seems like a very eager push to lock in a reciprocated trust and leave the game, which doesn't accord well with a player who holds themselves to high standards and would perhaps be happy to remain around to influence the crunch decision(s) later. If Prism really believes she can leave whenever she wants and really cares about solving the game, not sure I understand why she would be so desperate to leave today and not play a part in those decision(s). still reading...

?
thats what you took from what she said?
big misrep there

can you explain what you mean here?

[Infinity 324]

this is probably a cold take, but i think cookie is actually the scum who wants prism not to pair

[MafMen]

just catching up on last few pages. slightly surprised to see the charm offensive from Prism to Tammy - seems like a very eager push to lock in a reciprocated trust and leave the game, which doesn't accord well with a player who holds themselves to high standards and would perhaps be happy to remain around to influence the crunch decision(s) later. If Prism really believes she can leave whenever she wants and really cares about solving the game, not sure I understand why she would be so desperate to leave today and not play a part in those decision(s). still reading...

?
thats what you took from what she said?
big misrep there

can you explain what you mean here?

my bad probably more accurate to call it strawmanning

[MafMen]

this is probably a cold take, but i think cookie is actually the scum who wants prism not to pair

no you could definitely be onto something
their late game has been kinda crap tbqh

[MafMen]

I think I prefer Tammy/Cookie

Enchant/Prism might hide a scum in them if not both. It's true that the designated final 4 are far too okay with the plan for this to be good

if there had to be a scum in enchant/wisdom id be leaning wisdom just for this post tbh

[MafMen]

i feel like trust testing enchant, anyone oppose?

[Infinity 324]

like i get being paranoid is a scum mindset here if your partner is outside the pairing plan, but from what I've read it seems very reasonable not to hard tr enchant (why is he town?), self meta is convincing, also isn't prism the one pushing towards more analysis and not rushing?

tbh it's hard to stay motivated because it feels like we can probably win without me being paired, getting to f4 would definitely up my motivation, but prism is right that i really should start playing now.

[Infinity 324]

i feel like trust testing enchant, anyone oppose?

why

[cool cookie]

The entire reconsideration of the block was started by my insistence on rereading and double-checking. The plan was for Tammy to go with Enchant then Wisdom goes with me tomorrow. I have no reason to panic as scum and grovel at Tammy's feet for a trust.

I have every reason to double check on Enchant and every reason to be frustrated with the prospect of a dysfunctional and inactive final four.

I think we have time to get into the detail. I know your argument was that if you were scum it was more likely you were scum with Enchant or Wisdom - which might make the wrong pairing combination a bit awkward - since S-S can't pair up.

I don't know if I'd use the word "grovel", but to me you definitely seemed to be pushing it quite hard to manipulate Tammy with a full range of tactics over the last few pages. The key point though is you have less reason to take this approach as town than as scum. My view is Town-Prism wants to pair Tammy with Prism's top remaining townread today, and then Prism herself makes the decisive winning pick tomorrow - given Prism is a highly gifted player who loves to win at all costs. Town-Prism being anxious to leave today with no real certainty about how subsequent days should be played? Doesn't make sense in that world.

In contrast, lots of reasons scum-Prism might be keen to leave. One example is scum-Prism could be wary that stagnant games can sometimes see people go off-piste, and safer to lock in 1 escape now than risk 2 days of jeopardy.

Of course I could be wrong, but it's difficult to see how your approach today lines up with your own assessment of yourself and the logical strategy for town in this setup. Hope that makes sense!

[MafMen]

i feel like trust testing enchant, anyone oppose?

why

because all this meandering is frustrating lol

[cool cookie]

this is probably a cold take, but i think cookie is actually the scum who wants prism not to pair

no you could definitely be onto something
their late game has been kinda crap tbqh

or maybe I'm wrong and scum team has just woken up? Although struggle to see how shading me achieves much here for a MafMen-Infinity team, so probably not! also makes either of them being scum with Prism less likely.

happy to hear from mafmen why my play is crap. am i not explaining the logic clearly enough? i feel like the points themselves are pretty clear. Infinity's take is fine - definitely makes sense but also something I acknowledged myself as a possibility.

[Infinity 324]

fair enough, i don't think scum!enchant accepts you anyway.

i just don't get why he's town

[cool cookie]

just catching up on last few pages. slightly surprised to see the charm offensive from Prism to Tammy - seems like a very eager push to lock in a reciprocated trust and leave the game, which doesn't accord well with a player who holds themselves to high standards and would perhaps be happy to remain around to influence the crunch decision(s) later. If Prism really believes she can leave whenever she wants and really cares about solving the game, not sure I understand why she would be so desperate to leave today and not play a part in those decision(s). still reading...

?
thats what you took from what she said?
big misrep there

can you explain what you mean here?

my bad probably more accurate to call it strawmanning

are you able to be specific? in what way do you think it was strawmanning? I don't see it.

[cool cookie]

I think I prefer Tammy/Cookie

Enchant/Prism might hide a scum in them if not both. It's true that the designated final 4 are far too okay with the plan for this to be good

if there had to be a scum in enchant/wisdom id be leaning wisdom just for this post tbh

because it argues for me being town?

or because Enchant and Prism both being scum doesn't explain why the final 4 would be happy with the plan of them pairing off early?

good to clarify what you mean here

[MafMen]

just catching up on last few pages. slightly surprised to see the charm offensive from Prism to Tammy - seems like a very eager push to lock in a reciprocated trust and leave the game, which doesn't accord well with a player who holds themselves to high standards and would perhaps be happy to remain around to influence the crunch decision(s) later. If Prism really believes she can leave whenever she wants and really cares about solving the game, not sure I understand why she would be so desperate to leave today and not play a part in those decision(s). still reading...

?
thats what you took from what she said?
big misrep there

can you explain what you mean here?

my bad probably more accurate to call it strawmanning

are you able to be specific? in what way do you think it was strawmanning? I don't see it.

because you somehow got "prism is desperately trying to exit the game" instead of "prism is anxious about the alignments of wisdom/enchant"
its definitely not a good look to misrep someones argument this hard

[Prism]

1714 gives me an aneurysm because it's divining that my confidence in my scumgame is equivalent to my confidence in my towngame and ability to solocarry. It spins a hypothetical alternative around that false equivalence and directly dismisses the original scum description out of convenience. I have an extensive record of solocarrying games as scum and not losing my composure even in a 4 way where town got 3 guesses on the last scum. I have an extensive record of trying this hard, getting this frustrated, and being unable to carry it as town.

[MafMen]

you tellin me the guy who religiously stalks this thread sat on what prism said and didnt back her up for a full 12 hours? then while backing up her point he throws her in as potential scum?
yeah thats whack bruh

[Prism]

I'm sick of this game and am ending it.

Trust: MafMen

If he accepts go Wisdom/Tammy romorrow. If not this should replace Enchant for the Wisdom trust and I will go to Final 2 if I am wrong.

[Prism]

If I threw out of tilt that's on me but 3/4 other players have had their yolo trusts so w/e