Slaughter Hour: The Grand Debut! | Fin

[Taly]

Event 1, basically



The bus drive is scum, the passengers are town. Gamma is Regina George.

[Taly]

GALRON

IS

CADY

LMFAO

[Taly]

that's not to metaphorically suggest

gamma

is scum, I actually think that points more to the contrary but jury still out.

[Toogeloo]

*ahem*
Can I kindly remind everyone that so far only I have killed a stagehand.

[Taly]

WITH WHO LEADING THE WAGON THAT GAVE YOU THE GUN

[Taly]

sorry that was overly aggressive

my oh my, it's past my bedtime

and now i bid you all goodnight

[Gamma Emerald]

That wasn’t really your call to put you and Dunn in the duel though. Claiming sole credit is excessively misleading.

[Gamma Emerald]

sorry that was overly aggressive

my oh my, it's past my bedtime

and now i bid you all goodnight

No your post was absolutely valid

[petapan]

they were actually helpful in FFXIV, especially with the flavor claims
here they're just a wet towel

this especially seems a case of engagement with the material/mechanics of that game vs. here although lord that is a big difference, looking at it. but i feel like the range of play and tone here is not that dissimilar to e.g. isekai upick or micro 1017, for towngames as reference. it doesn't feel like mini normal 2197.

i feel like fighting against the tide here might be a losing endeavor though and if i want to do things democratically i have to give up something here, and a flip there is at least useful for that dread term, "resolving the wagons" that lets us know what went on day 2

i'm not significantly convinced that either toog or gypyx are scum though and want to fight to save one though. i think revisiting prism and gypyx's iso needs to be next on my agenda

i'm realizing this event actually sucks, i'd significantly prefer to just flip one player and proceed from there, i am not a person who works via PoE at all


i continue to find almost every harley post suspicious, i don't even see the improvement gammagooey mentions

[petapan]

gammagooey already covered this in a summary but i am basically always going to want to flip the saber slot today

VOTE: ulyana
I feel like she's dispassionate and disconnected from the game in a way that she wasn't in radio buzz as rousseau, but somewhat reminds me of what I remember tracy flick being like in student council

Without looking at meta I disagree with this read

then you're probably evil too because I think what I'm seeing should be plainly obvious if you even glance at ulyana's ISO or just pay attention to what she says as you read up
and this is a different brand of obviousness than what I was throwing around before, that's was like a bright flame to me, this is like a strong current of a river

Probably evil

seems strong for someone simply disagreeing with a read of yours. Are any of Infinity, skitter, of Ydrasse probably evil for disagreeing?

this feels like a chainsaw defense

Gamma had an opportunity to vote himself into the chair though.

So the theory that they are playing to get into the chair is probably incorrect regardless (though that doesn't necessarily make him town because the chair isn't necessarily or even likely to be good)

I hate this from Dunnstral

100 points for anyone who can figure out why I hate this

Real eyes realize real lies... or truths!

Maybe because Gamma hammering himself would be akin to a stagehand claim?

Also Gamma is very clearly not a stagehand trying to get voted right now anyway, given the effort he's putting in.

this feels like it's evading directly trying to engage with pooky suspecting dunn

Do you think scum are involved with the Galron wagon, Saber?

Most likely. I think you're a stagehand and the Galron wagon is your buddies attempt to save you. Whether they're instigating it (skitter) or taking advantage of it (petapan amongst others) I'm unsure of though.

Or it's Galron and I'm wrong on you but that can't be the case because I'm incapable of being wrong.

I'm not inclined to feel good about this stance when half of the Galron wagon are my top TRs,

and also the exact same TRs you tried to fuck with before

This doesn't go unnoticed, by the way. Your insistence that I was trying to mess with your townreads rather than questioning your thought process is absurd.

1064 - addressed here. I don't see how Gamma really believes this.

@Cephrir/Dunnstral: Is the Holy Grail making me mad or is this an interpretation a contestant should absolutely not be making?

a direct address to dunn about gamma, first interaction of any sort there

@Saber: I get how you thought my play was erratic in a way that felt tactical, but I can probably point to a few games where I've made sharp turns at critical moments as town. What I think I'm most interested in is your reads in general, because aside from your reads on me and Galron, those don't feel exactly clear rn. I've at least sussed out from your ISO that you TR Taly and ulyana.

It was less about it being tactical, and more about it feeling unnatural.

As for my reads:
Taly
skitter petapan
Ydrasse Infinity
Gamma Toogeloo Cephrir
SirCakez Dunnstral Dwlee
Galron

Maybe something like this. By the way, I won't be free much this weekend but I will return with spoils of war.

this is actually super bothersome, now that i look at it - dunn is tucked near the bottom of her reads but not at the very bottom, ceph is somewhere in nullscum territory, yet those two were the ones she asked about gamma? doesn't quite track. anyway there's been no actual discussion of dunn through here

Most vocal stagehand or suspicions from Pooky I can see are on Gamma, Dunnstral, and petapan. He also supported a S-S theory for the two leading wagons.

VOTE: Galron

The shot on Galron being sabotaged does suggest Galron may be a stagehand also. Stagehands only own 2 of those, so following occam's razor killing the player who was saved due to it does seem like a good idea.

As for the second player in the duel, possibly Dunnstral largely due to Pooky's theory that he brought with him to the grave.

these are the only mentions of dunnstral and it's just talking about pooky's read rather than anything dunn even says

2452 isn't actually about dunn, it's about unwnd's half-assed read of Saber/Dunn as unaligned (which i don't agree with) but Saber goes after him for being "more interested in appearing contestanty and like he's solving rather than actually convincing players of these reads he's posting" which is just super weak imo, as if having underexplained reads is in and of itself a scumtell. attacks him for "progression on dunnstral read" in 2850, but i think the "without any new content" is a cheap gotcha, people can think things over and re-evaluate without seeing posts. i dunno something about these incidental attacks over unwnd's read on dunn without saber really ever discussing dunn feels bothersome?

Dunnstral/Toogeloo isn't the worst result in the world. I think Toogeloo is >random-contestant but at the end of the day they're doing absolutely nothing for the contestants and it's not like what they're doing is hard to fake by any means. It's hard to justify them making it to endgame basically.

Dunnstral has just been somewhat lacking and may have sliped about secret insider stagehand info in the first phase, and may also be the reason Pooky died.

VOTE: Dunnstral

and, again, i said as much at the time, this feels like a bus vote. it's over-justified and there was basically no visible discussion of dunn prior to this, only happening when i change my worldview on dunn and move momentum there

i'm such an ass for allowing myself to sheep that read in the first place

[petapan]

also as much as i want to tinfoil gamma based on the dunn iso he continues to come across as very genuine with all of his posts. maybe not as genuine as dwlee immediately snapping at gamma and wanting a mutual suicide though. doesn't feel scum motivated given their general position in the gamestate.


i at least feel like i'm getting more focus on my definite crossing group of people vs my "maybe flip"s. i think settling on the people i want to towncore is the most important part here

i think i can go into saber's posts in the PT tomorrow and get into why i found them suspect but right now i want to get some rest

[Toogeloo]

That wasn’t really your call to put you and Dunn in the duel though. Claiming sole credit is excessively misleading.

There ya go, making everything so serious again. /lesigh...

[Toogeloo]

I still think going with Cakez, then dwlee, then gamma, then myself is best. If we are all town, who gets shot here? My money's on Gamma.

[Toogeloo]

And all of y'all bitching about me are just making excuses at this point. I've definitely done enough to have a solid stance on my alignment one way or another.

[Gypyx]

Harley, got just one question if you're town, how come i suddenly become a scumread of yours right after i say you're scum ?

I won't say the buzzword, but the timing sure is convinient for an argument you haven't backed up with anything so far

[Dwlee99]

I'll try to be here tomorrow so preferably don't start getting people to cross rn

[petapan]

1015 - cakez says "that said I see where you're coming from re; it not adding up for you" in response to dunn, dunn says "I'm not sure that you do?".

i think this is a very good look for cakez

Can you elaborate why

Peta

?

in terms of this interaction, Dunn accuses cakez and cakez responds in a way that is conciliatory, and then dunn doubles down in response. it's not the typical interaction pattern i'd expect to see from scum here - more typical distancing pattern would have him bite back at dunn, not go soft, and even if that was his approach, i don't think dunn just keeps pushing on a teammate who isn't fighting him and make no effort to pivot to town at all. i feel fairly confident this isn't a scum/scum interaction here

1040. the previous shade is iffy but

Do you think

Gamma/Saber

S/S is ever a reality,

Peta

? I know that implies

Dunn/Gamma/Saber

but

Dunn/Saber

either really wanted one of their own as a king, or manipulated a lot of

Gamma's

progression Event 1. Which is likelier?

probably not, which is why i should shelve any and all tinfoil there (not that i think he would ever be likely to not cross) and flip HQ

[petapan]

my main thoughts toward the game over last night and this morning is that figuring out the cuts is going to be

painful

and also game-critical given the numbers at the end of the event and thinking needs to be geared toward that rather than who crosses


also having trouble thinking about how to weigh dunn interactions versus votes - think it's probable that at some point teammates may have been distancing from him at some point. i don't even think wanting him in the duel is necessarily clearing - assuming scum were privy to the event rules, and they had to be, given that they chose what chamber the bullet would go into, dunn had a decent chance of surviving the event. bleh

[petapan]

I remembered something gypyx posted in the blue room that pings quite a bit now that infinity has flipped town.

i think i know what you're talking about from gypyx but can you go into it?

[petapan]

read page 3 of the gamma emerald ISO and still think he feels believably solvy, there's drive, generic buzzwords etc, but i feel like him working on his own theories and going down some rabbit holes feels authentic. i think

this is lazy and the thing i said i wouldn't do but am pressed for time and mostly want to affirm my townreads and move on

[Gamma Emerald]

I remembered something gypyx posted in the blue room that pings quite a bit now that infinity has flipped town.

i think i know what you're talking about from gypyx but can you go into it?

When I started asserting my confidence in town!infinity Gypyx leapt to the idea I had an inno on infinity as a result of being spared as town. I did not, but I believe him thinking that might have been a slip of the tongue in a sense, as scum would know

some

reward had occurred. My belief for what the reward is, which I might have covered prior, is that the spinning of the barrel in the duel being true random was it.

[Toogeloo]

This game isn't a Mafia game. It's a forum based reality game show.

Town majority hasn't ever really had any real control in the game. Why people continue to play like they think they do is confusing. We have no tools to help find scum, and the only one that has died so far has been by sheer luck (your town majority beat the person with like 3 or 4 votes in a duel).

Start playing hoping for lady luck to be on our side. The closest thing we have to scum hunting tool this event is only discussing the mid 4 options and not trying to do a full sort.

[petapan]

and since i said i'd do it and it's pertinent to what gamma was saying, here's a summary of saber PT posts for those without access. my commentary in italics


23 posts total.

ISO # 0 - votes infinity, says their vote on Dunn looks like a bus
ISO # 1 - says i didn't explain but infinity sheeped me as soon as i changed my mind, "trying to get in early on that cred"

while we know this was incorrect, in and of itself it doesn't seem bothersome. but seeing as saber also moved her vote shortly after, it feels strange/hypocritical?

ISO # 2 - quotes unwnd asking if Saber still thinks he's scum, she says she'll look it over
ISO # 3 - says she's looking at the Dunnstral progression he had over the beginning of the entrance to the game where unwnd reevaluated him twice with no new Dunn content, says she has serious doubts it's stagehand-stagehand. This was posted 11 minutes after the previous post

The conclusion here feels maybe a little pat, especially given the speed with which it was posted. I don't know that those posts are, in and of themselves, that strong of an unalign for Saber to be re-evaluating so quickly

ISO # 4 - says she's boarding her flight
ISO # 5 - gives a list of preferences, based on memory, goes infy>toog>uly>dwlee>skit>taly, says haven't had a chance to check dunnstral interactions or read the last 20 or so pages of the thread

Wait, but she was confident enough to call Infinity's vote a bus without checking anyone else?

ISO # 6 - explaining to unwnd that her tone is an intentional choice and not related to alignment
ISO # 7 - asks unwnd if he's confident in her being a stagehand, and what happened to his read of her and dunn being unaligned
ISO # 8 - comment on unwnd's replace-out about talking with him postgame
ISO # 9 - shooting down gamma's defense of infinity saying them being the person he knows best on the site isn't something we should be following, asks him to categorize where the read came from

ISO # 10 - says infinity is "only real good stagehand read" in pink room. says toogeloo is dead weight if town and nothing clears them with dunnstral, but should be left alone because dueling scum wagons are less likely. says that we should get a pass from the other group, and says "maybe they've actually started trying". says infinity has "weird reads" and "switches reads at the drop of a hat", and reiterates vote on dunnstral looks like a bus

fuck any and all wagonomics reasoning about dueling wagons. it is stupid and fallacious. can this reasoning come from town? yeah, that's not suspicious. but i hate the reasoning for infinity-scum, those points about their read just aren't actually scumtells. i'm kicking myself right now for not being more skeptical of this. the comment about toog actually starting to try also feels rather informed, i can't see reason to be speculating on this

ISO # 11 - says whoever said ulyana isn't going many places with her questioning "raises a good point", that her qestions don't seem to lead to many conclusions. however says ulyana assessment on unwnd-toogeloo being locked in and supported by other players is "contestanty", that it was "probably incorrect" but "nuanced" and "strange" to talk about.

this is what bothers me, it feels less like proactive an original solving and more like Saber latching on to minor suspicions and paranoias i had been outing at the time. it doesn't feel like there was town scumhunting energy to it and overall the post is hedgey. i don't really know what the last part was about

ISO # 12 - says she hasn't been paying much attention to actually reading Taly since early on, read "cheery motivational style" as towny early on. Says strange dunnstral progressions I brought up are interesting and something she'll have to dig into when she gets back

this, again, feels like riding on my tinfoil-y reading of Taly's Dunn progression. additionally, the reason for Taly being top town was "cheery motivational style"?

ISO # 13 - cakez asks saber why ulyana isn't a good choice, saber says her conviction on "the Toog-unwnd-Gamma-Infinity hammer theory" feels towny
ISO # 14 - asks Gammagooey his thoughts on her slot and defends skitter, who he voted in the post he quoted, saying "she's been pushing out unfiltered thoughts and whatever's on her mind", and apparently had decent interactions with dunn although saber hasn't verified them herself

this is, once again, a vague, bad read on skitter

ISO # 15 - walks back the townread on ulyana for conviction, says not valid if no one else sees the theory, could just be doing busywork,puts her as second choice after infinity but before toog
ISO # 16 - however, says strongly prefers infinity over ulyana and wants gamma to elaborate why he's so confident on her being town
ISO # 17 - "Nice, I think this is right." in response to cakez hammering infinity

this is just tonally gross

ISO # 18 - arguing with gamma over infinity, saying he's selling them short for their read on them making sense. says gamma is going into it with a mindset of infinity having two options for a read as scum, says scum are faking reads just to fake them most of the time, don't have specific motivation behind them
ISO # 19 - further elaboration of the infinity read, there's links to some posts. bad reasoning for defending dunn in 1266, dunn being first in their solve in 1940, no conclusion on him in 2067, dunn being second tier from the bottom in 3187, and again repeating the point about infinity following my vote on nothing

i don't think a ton of these posts in and of themselves, the continued attempted burial of infinity could theoretically be tunneled town here but i don't really like the narrowed focus and lack of reading into other players. a lot of the reasoning was stuff i agreed with at the time in spite of my wariness of Saber. but scum can have reads that townies agree with, the thought process here isn't something i'd say is unfakeable or anything. also the fact that this is being done after the vote was locked in just seems very ehh, not to mention saber's shift on dunn was arguably worse

ISO # 20 - i express apprehension that i went on a wagon with the people in the PT i clear the least, Saber asks how i'm reading them compared to players in the other group
ISO # 21 - says she wouldn't be surprised if she was the pick in response to gypyx saying he expects to be consensus'd on
ISO # 22 - comment about pink room "better have some good improv lined up for us" and mentions that i ignored her question

i had missed the question initially but at the time was mainly trying to keep the fact that i was suspicious of Saber in my back pocket rather than being overt about it. when i saw that i was nominated i panicked a bit and probably went overaly aggressive with the read because i felt the need to get it out into the open

[petapan]

I remembered something gypyx posted in the blue room that pings quite a bit now that infinity has flipped town.

i think i know what you're talking about from gypyx but can you go into it?

When I started asserting my confidence in town!infinity Gypyx leapt to the idea I had an inno on infinity as a result of being spared as town. I did not, but I believe him thinking that might have been a slip of the tongue in a sense, as scum would know

some

reward had occurred. My belief for what the reward is, which I might have covered prior, is that the spinning of the barrel in the duel being true random was it.

i feel like goofy mechanical speculation is within gypyx's town wheelhouse although it's something he leans on as scum in lieu of making reads

[petapan]

i wasn't even looking for it when i went back, but i seriously cannot get over that comment from Saber about how maybe Toog has started efforting in the pink room. that just feels informed as fuck