Slaughter Hour: The Grand Debut! | Fin

[petapan]

is there that big of a difference between gamma being 90+% to be town and 100% that it should affect how i approach my reads

Depends, what's a baseline contestant percentage for you?

If you are a contestant, it's very dangerous game to start assuming certain players are contestants and then base reads off of them, it's the same reason why pre-flip associative reads are often as good as rolling a dice for your reads.

holy hell what a post

[petapan]

I guess I should start reading Gamma as a whole rather than latch onto a few things he did earlier which were paid. The progressions in his catchup and reevaluation as a whole did seem very genuine.

Infinity, I normally prefer to look at one or two things someone has done and determine whether they are likely to come from a contestant or a stagehand, and then value that over trying to read someone for all their actions as that can get muddy.

@Saber: I get how you thought my play was erratic in a way that felt tactical, but I can probably point to a few games where I've made sharp turns at critical moments as town. What I think I'm most interested in is your reads in general, because aside from your reads on me and Galron, those don't feel exactly clear rn. I've at least sussed out from your ISO that you TR Taly and ulyana.

It was less about it being tactical, and more about it feeling unnatural.

As for my reads:
Taly
skitter petapan
Ydrasse Infinity
Gamma Toogeloo Cephrir
SirCakez Dunnstral Dwlee
Galron

Maybe something like this. By the way, I won't be free much this weekend but I will return with spoils of war.

Most vocal stagehand or suspicions from Pooky I can see are on Gamma, Dunnstral, and petapan. He also supported a S-S theory for the two leading wagons.

I'm not interested in voting for Ydrasse or Gypyx. I don't like Infinity voting for Gypyx on the basis Gamma contestant means Prism more likely to be a stagehand.

Infinity, you've made this assumption twice now that the people pushing Gamma the most are more likely to be a stagehand now that Gamma is probably a contestant - first with me, and now with Prism. The problem with that is the fact stagehands knew how the chair in the first phase would work, and that it comes with a heavy risk of the chaired person simply OMGUS executing their pusher.

I'm sure stagehand Prism would have some more reservations of pushing Gamma so aggressively had she considered this factor, which I'm sure she would've.

I didn't have time to express thsie earlier; the most stagehand part of Gamma's whole monologue were probably these 2 posts:

Well this is an interesting position. Looks like both the minority stances were right in a sense, funnily enough. My gut inclination is to shoot in my SRs but I ain’t gonna fuck around and find out. I want to consider my reads again with the truth of the chair in mind.

Well that was unfortunate but I think inevitable. I have an idea about why Pooky was selected to die. It’s getting factored into my new decision though, so I’ll hold onto it until I’m ready to make the call.

These reactions seem quite muted for a relatively emotive person like Gamma, from what we've seen from the rest of this game.

2127 - Oozes contestants from Taly, I don't see a stagehand faking a winding complex thought process like this.
2138 - That's a good point I think.

I'm not interested in voting for Ydrasse or Gypyx. I don't like Infinity voting for Gypyx on the basis Gamma contestant means Prism more likely to be a stagehand.

Infinity, you've made this assumption twice now that the people pushing Gamma the most are more likely to be a stagehand now that Gamma is probably a contestant - first with me, and now with Prism. The problem with that is the fact stagehands knew how the chair in the first phase would work, and that it comes with a heavy risk of the chaired person simply OMGUS executing their pusher.

I'm sure stagehand Prism would have some more reservations of pushing Gamma so aggressively had she considered this factor, which I'm sure she would've.

you say you don't like it but do you think it makes infinity scummy

Yeah, it's stage 1 type thinking which I think is more likely to come from a stagehand, we don't know Gamma's alignment for one to confidently base reads off of him, but assuming Infinity is a stagehand, it's not a bad route for her to pursue other votes on Gamma's pushers if they're contestants, and she knows Gamma is a contestant.

is there that big of a difference between gamma being 90+% to be town and 100% that it should affect how i approach my reads

Depends, what's a baseline contestant percentage for you?

If you are a contestant, it's very dangerous game to start assuming certain players are contestants and then base reads off of them, it's the same reason why pre-flip associative reads are often as good as rolling a dice for your reads.

On unwnd:

He enters the game with the premise that we should be looking for stagehands on the Gamma wagon. The problem with that is that his slot is the only other wagon in the VC he links in 2204. It’s very strange for a contestant to look at 2 wagons, one of them being on their own slot, and think

We should look for stagehands on the other wagon

- a player that is unknown to him, rather than his own wagon which he should know to be on a contestant.

I also think it’s a faulty premise to be looking for stagehands primarily on the Gamma wagon if both wagons were on contestants, since stagehands would have very little stake in who gets executed and have no incentive to vote for Gamma over Galron.

Lot more to read through which I'll get to soon.

For now: Gamma, what are your issues with me? As far as I can remember, it's because you disliked how I changed my opinion on you, but a lot of players saw the exact same things I did? Your contestant spew during the execution decision was the number 1 reason many including myself changed our minds, so I'm not sure why you're honing in on my progession being suspicious.

It was less about it being tactical, and more about it feeling unnatural.

My issue rn kinda lies with this comment. I feel like it’s a bit revisionist history given pushing me is no longer the in mode thing to do. Before this I distinctly recall you saying when I was switching things up it felt to you like I was scum seeing my current approach wasn’t working and trying something new. That is essentially being tactical about switching up my play. And yet you nitpick my word choice like this, it feels incredibly concerning, like you’re trying to detach yourself from the push on me you had before.

Yes, it was both. My point was that your shifts in attitude seemed unnatural, which is the main way to tell whether they're from a stagehand or contestant. It can only be theorised whether they're actually tactical because they didn't even go well for you. For example, your acting like a jester and then turning on Prism only seemed to attract more heat on you, so saying it's a stagehand tactic is iffy since you'd be actively pursuing bad tactics. I'd prefer to look at whether it was actually natural for you start acting those ways when you did.

Infinity, it should be obvious why a contestant posts their thoughts about players as they catch up, obvious or not. Ydrasse was just a while ago in stagehand-range for many, so a read on her is not going to hurt.

unwnd + Infinity? Infinity taking advantage of Gamma's vote on me to start a wagon.

Infinity's flimsy reason to vote me and to go from 'unsure about Saber' to 'this is scum' seems to be taking advantage of something.

[petapan]

to clarify the posts in the above post were all after the first event

[petapan]

i also caught some ydrasse/skitter interactions out of the corner of my eye and hoo-eee, those don't look partnered

[petapan]

i don't even know that the over the top gamma defense is necessarily damning, pulling a strong bus day 1 and full on reversal would be so, so crazy


i

kind

of thin skitter getting in the occasional shade with little else on Taly makes me squint a little more because it is similar to how she talked about her other teammates - there was the occasional random shade but not a real push

[Taly]

Wth. Didn't notice this but

Saber goes from having Galron at the bottom of her reads to talking about the scummiest part of his Event 2 deliberation in her eyes in leas than 200 posts. With no buffer in progression.

Like that does not read to me as Gamma being aligned with Saber. Do you think it could be peta?

[petapan]

skitt was also very much about wanting to kill me and the unwnd slot and kind of just had saber there as an extra suspect


she obviously can carry a game but doesn't really like having to do so

[Taly]

I'm going to be really sad if me giving up a ruler position leads to a town loss or I get mislimmed. It would be worse than that time I lost in elo to Albert E Rampage years ago.

[Gamma Emerald]

I don’t get what peta is doing with those blank quotes, outside of maybe trying to shade me? And I am sorry but I recently had my own set of games where I played extremely shitty to my teammates despite believe myself not capable of such low behavior, so I’m not sure that argument is convincing to me. I’m not calling Peta scum as of yet but I did a lot of self-reflection over the course of this game and a key realization was the corruption of how I’d actually missed the true takeaway of the offsite scum win that inflated my ego.

[Taly]

Saber goes from having Galron at the bottom of her reads to talking about the scummiest part of his Event 2 deliberation in her eyes in leas than 200 posts. With no buffer in progression.

Tlaking about Gamma here

[petapan]

Wth. Didn't notice this but

Saber goes from having Galron at the bottom of her reads to talking about the scummiest part of his Event 2 deliberation in her eyes in leas than 200 posts. With no buffer in progression.

Like that does not read to me as Gamma being aligned with Saber. Do you think it could be peta?

GE? I absolutely think it could be because it feels like it could be a hedge/keeping options open

[Taly]

Saber goes from having Galron at the bottom of her reads to talking about the scummiest part of Gamma's Event 2 deliberation in her eyes in leas than 200 posts. With no buffer in progression.

Tlaking about Gamma here

Omg I hate phonepists

I mean.

Edited original quote

[Taly]

Wth. Didn't notice this but

Saber goes from having Galron at the bottom of her reads to talking about the scummiest part of his Event 2 deliberation in her eyes in leas than 200 posts. With no buffer in progression.

Like that does not read to me as Gamma being aligned with Saber. Do you think it could be peta?

GE? I absolutely think it could be because it feels like it could be a hedge/keeping options open

But she never follows through with her Galron read until nitpicking Unwnds entrance.

[Taly]

I don’t get what peta is doing with those blank quotes, outside of maybe trying to shade me? And I am sorry but I recently had my own set of games where I played extremely shitty to my teammates despite believe myself not capable of such low behavior, so I’m not sure that argument is convincing to me. I’m not calling Peta scum as of yet but I did a lot of self-reflection over the course of this game and a key realization was the corruption of how I’d actually missed the true takeaway of the offsite scum win that inflated my ego.

Where are you at with Ydra and Ggy?

[Gamma Emerald]

I would have literally been throwing suss on 2 partners in event 1 as scum
I pushed Ulyana because she felt active lurky and Dunn and Saber both wriggled out to combat me on that
I feel like that’s not the type of distancing I employ, I prefer more grandiose displays

I don’t get what peta is doing with those blank quotes, outside of maybe trying to shade me? And I am sorry but I recently had my own set of games where I played extremely shitty to my teammates despite believe myself not capable of such low behavior, so I’m not sure that argument is convincing to me. I’m not calling Peta scum as of yet but I did a lot of self-reflection over the course of this game and a key realization was the corruption of how I’d actually missed the true takeaway of the offsite scum win that inflated my ego.

Where are you at with Ydra and Ggy?

I honestly think it might be gooey because his order he put up in the heaven PT felt pre-pondered, like he was building up an agenda and enacting it. Ydra I don’t really have a good feel on but I don’t wanna just write her off when Cakez chose to have her proceed

[Taly]

Ydra

what do you think of my recounting of the Heaven PT?

[Taly]

What was the rundown in the

Hell PT

,

Ydra

?

Heaven

be like-

"lul, crown

Gamma

"

"no,

taly

"

"me want power "

"eww no, wtf"

"omg just vote someone"

"me promise i wont lose my shit"

"no, u probtown them interactions with

skitter

are a little worse than loooking at

gamma/peta

"

"no, u a poopyhead but ily tho"

"no u but ily2"

"

taly

would be a better ruler than me he obvtown"

"omg just vote someone, prefer

ggy

"

"uuuggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh fine i concede"

"les do me now"

Gammagooey: Gammagooey, petapan, Taly

okay hi, i understood i was gonna be nommed moment i saw the event but give me some time to convey what happened in our pt, because i am gonna flip town so, yeah.

basically the tl;dr is that sircakez gave his life for me

i am falling short on those reads again

[petapan]

i'm sorry i don't know if i follow this, can you say it again?

I feel like I’m more inclined to fall back on my earlier read on you rn (partly because I feel like peta has a point) which makes me feel very-not-good about Dwlee

this was during the moment in time where i had second-guessed myself on my skitter scumread

i'd leave like
ulyana, Harley, Gypyx, Toog

:\

Harley did you read at all during the break? I feel like you haven’t really shown much initiative in really making stuff happen

HQ, I do like your Dunn analysis, but I kinda see more from you as well

Ngl I’m mindmelding with Cakez pretty strongly on those TRs
I’d add skitter to mine tho

HQ I’d like if you could engage me here

Let’s start with this
What do you think of my actions and rationale during the first part of event 2?

@Harley Quinn

HQ I’d like if you could engage me here

What do you want me to say? My predecessor was being an idiot, I’m getting sr for entirely nia things and I’m like over it. I just don’t see the point of continuing to bang my head against a brick wall.

That’s not what’s going on IMO, I feel like a decent chunk of people are willing to give you a chance
It’s just that the content you’ve chosen to provide hasn’t really felt like what you should be giving

Let’s start with this
What do you think of my actions and rationale during the first part of event 2?

@Harley Quinn

It would really help me if you linked or quoted the specific posts your referencing.

Gamma

@HQ I want you to read my posting in between post 1723 and 1900 and say what you think of it

Strong TRs: (GE, peta, Taly)
Weak TRs: (skitter, Ggy)
In flux: (ydrasse, ulyana)
Weak SRs: (cakez, HQ)
Strong SRs: (dwlee, gypyx, toog)

This is where my reads are basically at atp. Up until just recently cakez and gypyx were switched, but I'm heeding peta a little bit on cakez and I remembered something gypyx posted in the blue room that pings quite a bit now that infinity has flipped town.

HURT: toog, gypyx, dwlee, (harley/cakez)

my desired order would be something like

(whichever of cakez/HQ isn't left out)
ulyana
ydrasse
(skitter+Ggy in either order)
Taly
(me+Peta in either order)

if we wanna do most to least towny for the crossing, basically just flip this order

there's also a good bit I don't like from cakez rn so he's still in my lower tiers

go into it?

I don't like how he went through events 3 and 4 pretty much at all
I'm also worried about how his reads sound, it's a case of "seems logical but not in a definitively town sense", which I had towards cephrir in Radio Buzz
there's another slot I'm of that opinion towards in this game as well somewhat, but I'm more willing to trust that person than I am cakez

Here ya go.

My first 4 across would be Cakez, dwlee, Gamma, and then myself, in that order. If no one dies, and game isn't over, well, we at least have something to talk about.

First plan you've given this event that I'm actually pretty OK with.

I’m not. I’d really like to get my top TRs across (myself, peta, Taly, skitter, Ggy)
This plan only just leaves enough room for them and I’d really rather purge as many of my actual SRs as possible rather than people I’m just somewhat worried about atp

that only guarantees 1 scum out of 4 when we're still looking for 3 scum atp
and assuming there's 1 scum in that 4, I have very little trust in whoever else is town in there to be able to sniff it out
As trite as it is to be joining this bandwagon of "just leave me out", I'd much rather have that group of 4 be left out than all cross, because I'm willing to die if it means three players that I don't trust also die. Though in reality I'd like a group of me/Toog/Dwlee/Gypyx to get left out if we want to put me in a room with my least trusted. I mean it with my feeling that Gypyx did a scummy in the blue room. I don't like how he reacted to my confidence that Infinity was town. I think it's quite possible he perspective slipped my alignment.

HURT: toog, gypyx, dwlee, (harley/cakez)

my desired order would be something like

(whichever of cakez/HQ isn't left out)
ulyana
ydrasse
(skitter+Ggy in either order)
Taly
(me+Peta in either order)

Why unsure on

HQ/Cakez

?

HQ has been posting a fair amount and working to rectify things wrt her slot, but I feel like she's not doing the exact right things, and her early posting kinda doesn't sit right with me.
I dislike how Cakez was like "my reads have been good this game" post-Dunn flip in an attempt to push infinity when he was pretty confidently SRing Cephrir, and that ended up wrong. I'm willing to give peta some credit for the Dunn associatives though, it's just not enough and there's also a spiteful part of me that wants to disregard it because my infinity townread was dismissed so readily when I gave it in the blue room. But I don't want to be that petty, so I'm giving the TR some due.

Pooky and Ydrasse can be marked as TRs, Ydrasse in “not shooting” territory as well

Did anything change with this Gamma? Why aren’t you voting Ydrasse?

we can only vote one person at a time I thought?

Saber

STOP. Stop this!
I’m pretty sure it’s

this shit

that’s getting Harley so spun up! Call Harley by her name, it’s honestly disrespectful to do this when Harley has already outposted Saber by MILES, look at the activity overview!

but that being said this does strike me as suspicious, because you sort of came into the game going "it's okay if you flip me" then start barking at us to prove who you're teammates with and insult me for continuing to suspect you. the whole process makse me feel lie your responses are geared toward emotional manipulation into making people not want to leave you behind rather than anything sincere

We’ve had this song and dance before in this game, twice or more in fact. Could you be right in a sense, sure, but it feels like you’re learning nothing from what went down with me and with Galron/unwnd.

I hadn’t thought about any order other than the pairs going across two by two.
I think the optimal strat would actually be to stagger crossings. So Ulyana should cross next, followed by me, and then Cakez.
Unless we want to branch out on this idea to include skitter+gooey, in which case I surmise 2 orders could work, either an ABCABC order (each pair sending one half across, then the other half) or perhaps ABACBC. I’d personally think ABCABC more functional. I’m postulating on this because I thought I saw something from Ydrasse accepting being a part of those left behind if we get far enough to make the plan involving all 3 pairs work and no kill happens. If I’m dreaming a little too big just let me know.
VOTE: Ulyana
I think sending her across next is my preferred option rn.

The leave-outs should be 4 of (TA, Gypyx, Cakez, FB, Toog) IMO atp
A lot of people (or at least definitely Taly and me) were upset at the way event 4 played out so imo everybody that isn’t townblock material who is responsible for that should get axed ASAP

Mod: You still have HQ in the list to get across.

Gamma, I feel as if you aren't giving me a chance. It's like pulling teeth to get any response from you. I need you specifically because I feel the game is following your lead and not giving anyone in your pool a chance. This is very problematic given the way the first thirty pages played out.

For instance, gooey is clearly scum coasting. That slot (Galron) was already saved once. Yet Gooey isn't in your pool. Scum don't even have to defend him.

Skitter slot was already spewed town, yet you have a blanket conculsion he should die.

Ulyrana has been slanking which exactly matches Toog's prediction and Toog practically called out Dunn but didn't mention his name. Now that the mood is set, Ulyrana posts because there is a consensus to sheep.

This game has largely gone wrong in the spam. Let's slow it down and reevaluate.

Taly isn't the worst choice to go across next though.

I do think your content is okay but I'm not really gonna be swayed from who I want left behind. The best bet for you this phase is to convince me that out of the 5 names I listed, you're the one who should stick around.

Oh, OK. THANK YOU @Gammagooey

So, aside from my slot.. what are the reads on everyone else?

Ask King Gamma.

His are the only ones that count. Don't bother reading as a simple reading contradicts the narrative.

Is this talking about me or gooey
Either way, I don’t like your tone.

Oh, OK. THANK YOU @Gammagooey

So, aside from my slot.. what are the reads on everyone else?

Ask King Gamma.

His are the only ones that count. Don't bother reading as a simple reading contradicts the narrative.

What do you mean "His are the only ones that count"?? Everyone has their own vote, right?

In theory, but Gamma made it abundantly clear that I was dying regardless of my efforts. Everyone went along despite the obvious reading of the thread. So yeah don't waste your time. You have 80% odds of dying. If you suppose I die, your odds go to 75%.

That is not what I said. I said your best bet was explaining why you should live over A50/FB/Toog/Cakez. 4/5 of those are getting left behind. You wanna avoid the presumes bloodbath, you gotta put in the work.

Also I find it laughable you think everyone is bowing to my reads here. IF THAT WERE THE CASE, INFINITY WOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN NOMINATED!

[petapan]

gaaaaahhhhh
I don't wanna retract my cakez TR now that it's on the vote thing but I feel like the associative points against him sound good

[petapan]

a reread of gamma emeralds iso from the crossing event and i now high key think it is him

[petapan]

i quoted the associative stuff mostly but in general the whole process there feels scummy

[Taly]

Why? You're not quite explaining your thought process here.

And what do you make of his view of HQ? Because that wasn't an interaction I read under the lens of this game, but on a personal level.

[petapan]

i am headed out for a run and will not be around to respond!

[Gamma Emerald]

I think my play during that event should be the strong point for me being town

[Taly]

I don't think Gamma spends so much energy trying to protect Infinity only for literally the whole game to side against him.

Gamma has gone against the grain a fair bit imo.

- k peta..