Anything uPick (Endgame)

[Galron]

For Ircher:

Spoiler:

[Cheeky Wings]

Ircher why is Victorine town?
~C

[Ircher]

That's not how it works. A scale where 50% is really 3/4s of the way is useless.

That's exactly how it works
It is a lower bar to consider someone town than scum

If you say you're 80% sure someone is town, it means you think that 4 times out of 5 they will flip town

You shouldn't be interpreting as a probability. Others may be using it as a way to indicate a probability, but I am quite clearly not doing that.

[Ircher]

If scum!Victorine wanted to coast in this game, she would have just kept up her minimal engagement with the game. That's not at all what happened. Over the course of today, she has offered significant amounts of information unrequested from her.

[Gamma Emerald]

Probably

By probably, do you mean that there are other factors as well? If not, what do you mean by probably?

well, yeah
confident reads feel at a premuim rn, especially SRs, so I'm sticking to my guns and trying to see where that gets me

[Gamma Emerald]

We can kill Galron as well.

We're not doing that.

[jjh927]

I don't think it's clear at all that you're not doing that

Are you saying that when you say you are 80% sure, you do not mean that you think 4/5 times you will be right, but you instead mean that you are arbitrarily confident you are right?

[Ircher]

Yes.

This is the disclaimer I put at the bottom of every single one of my colored reads list:

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null section contains both townreads and scumreads, and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a quadratic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be less than the difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

And even if it wasn't clear initially, it ought to be by this point.

[jjh927]

You should maybe stop using quantitative measures to describe your confidence if it is qualitative

[Deimos27]

-Why did Yume suddenly start signing every post with M having done that on exactly one other post, along with also having signed as "Big bad wold" and "Red" previously, at a time when GrandpaMo decided to push the agenda that Yume's post restriction was to imitate Mastina?
-Why does GMo ignore Post 2161 while attempting to determine Yume's post restriction?
-This is exactly the kind of poorly thought out nonsense I would expect from scum!Yume to justify demonstrably false claims based on what has happened when Yume has been caught in a lie in the past
-GMo really pushed that agenda HARD there. Like damn, there were some serious leaps of logic to get to that conclusion and then he left it open with the obvious "Mastina" answer for me and/or Fire to answer for him so he doesn't seem completely batshit insane.

Conclusion- A pair of bad actors reading a bad script

Guys wanna wagon jjh after all

I dont get this stance?

On reflection this may indeed be one of those weirdpushes that is not a scum-motivated weirdpush.
Mainly because I think an informed perspective may be slightly less likely to see intricate ghost

associatives

compared to ghost individual tells.

[jjh927]

I mean, I got there because GMo seemed to be interpreting things in a really leapy way

[Cheeky Wings]

You should maybe stop using quantitative measures to describe your confidence if it is qualitative

I'm not sure what you're doing if not to discredit Ircher's defense of Vic.
~C

[Deimos27]

Fascinated at how polarised the reads of Fire/Pooky (sorry didn't pay attention to who it was) and Cheeky are wrt jjh

[Galron]

ghost associatives compared to ghost individual tells

I lent out my BoM. Can you explain ghost associates and ghost tells?

[Cheeky Wings]

Fascinated at how polarised the reads of Fire/Pooky (sorry didn't pay attention to who it was) and Cheeky are wrt jjh

You should see how polarized Nancy and my reads are on Firebear.
~C

[Good Luck Buddy]

Fascinated at how polarised the reads of Fire/Pooky (sorry didn't pay attention to who it was) and Cheeky are wrt jjh

cheeky being wrong is a not a new thing

[Gamma Emerald]

ghost associatives compared to ghost individual tells

I lent out my BoM. Can you explain ghost associates and ghost tells?

what is this book of mafia in actuality

[jjh927]

You should maybe stop using quantitative measures to describe your confidence if it is qualitative

I'm not sure what you're doing if not to discredit Ircher's defense of Vic.
~C

I'm doing two things in equal parts;
-Discrediting Ircher's defense of Vic in that Ircher's portrayal of confidence in this instance is misleading and I don't trust it
-Admonishing someone who is habitually using percentages in a misleading way

[Good Luck Buddy]

i mean given how ircher used his first reads list to proclaim his % i thought we were all aware his percentages weren't to be trusted

[Ircher]

It's not misleading, and though aspects of it are qualitative, that doesn't mean the quantitative side needs to be ditched altogether.

[Cheeky Wings]

If scum!Victorine wanted to coast in this game, she would have just kept up her minimal engagement with the game. That's not at all what happened. Over the course of today, she has offered significant amounts of information unrequested from her.

Can I get an example of this unrequested information? It boggles me that out or all the wagons so far you feel so confident (confident enough to be eliminated instead of them) on Vic who happens to be the hardest to parse imo.
~C

[jjh927]

That was an early readslist

Good players use early readslists to make statements with arbitrarily strong levels of confidence to generate content

I was more annoyed at the 80% confidence post in isolation

[Ircher]

(Also, that reads list was a joke if people haven't figured that out by now.)

[Cheeky Wings]

Fascinated at how polarised the reads of Fire/Pooky (sorry didn't pay attention to who it was) and Cheeky are wrt jjh

cheeky being wrong is a not a new thing

I love how you always hold my town game in such high regard.
~C