Anything uPick (Endgame)

[GrandpaMo]

this is how i see it.

ircher = scum = vic being town becuase ircher has tmi for vic to be town
ircher = town = vic being town because ircher has tmi (pr) for vic to be town


if you flip vic
vic = scum = ircher being scum due to defense
vic = town = ircher being scum due to having tmi

in the case that vic is scum, its 1/4
in the case that ircher is scum, 3/4


i see more worlds where ircher is scum

[GrandpaMo]

If Ircher is town then I would lock in Vic assuming Irchers role is somewhat informed about Vics role.

I will be clear here: I do not have a mechanical reason to believe Victorine is town.

@Mo Did you try working out the logic?

yes i have. ur logic only works if what vic is claiming is to be true.

[Ircher]

If someone is pushing people and then changing their mind and they are doing that a lot then that is absolutely town. You believe Taly is struggling to get into the game, but you don't extend that argument for that to be a result of a town player whose pushes continually end up being townreads based on their reaction. That's a town player who hasn't hit scum, but not for lack of trying

You are focusing on a particular aspect where as I am looking at this more holistically. Could I be wrong? Sure. Is it likely I am wrong here? Probably. The fact of the matter though is that the way he is approaching the thread just doesn't feel like a townie. The aggression aspect is also playing a huge part in my read here with the caveat that it is also correlated with his frustration level in general.

[ratmans]

That sounds exactly like something I would do.
What's people's case on Taly btw?

Uh, there isn't one???

Then why is Taly's wagon second to mine

i love how i said u were the leading wagon and instantly believed it lol

I have a tragic mafia past

[Ircher]

OK.. but say you're limmed, do you still want Vic as lock town?
~C

Not lock town, but I'd say don't touch for 2 game days. After that, you can reevaluate.

[Deimos27]

Ircher just disappears the moment they get shot
Coincidence?

Coinci-not.

But yeah I hate this timing
He hadn't posted in the thread for like 15 minutes so if he were town and he'd just stepped away from the game he could say
"I stepped away from the game for a sec. Dayvig is obviously fake"
Instead the timing with him appearing right after 3852 makes me think he was there all along and we managed to lure him out by making it look like his absence was intrinsically scummy.

I also feel like his claiming disbelief of the shot is inconsistent with him thereafter still making a (not very, but somewhat) comprehensive readslist.
Wanting to still get the towncred for having given a readslist.

[Deimos27]

this is how i see it.

ircher = scum = vic being town becuase ircher has tmi for vic to be town
ircher = town = vic being town because ircher has tmi (pr) for vic to be town


if you flip vic
vic = scum = ircher being scum due to defense
vic = town = ircher being scum due to having tmi

in the case that vic is scum, its 1/4
in the case that ircher is scum, 3/4


i see more worlds where ircher is scum

I assume the conditional probabilities are meant to be more nuanced than this
But the way you've presented it would actually have Ircher scum 100% of the time
Because Vic is definitely either town or scum, and regardless of which they are you have Ircher as scum

[Ircher]

if you flip vic
vic = scum = ircher being scum due to defense
vic = town = ircher being scum due to having tmi

I'm sorry, what kind of logic is this? You're assuming my guilt regardless.

[jjh927]

What else are you looking at then, if you're the one taking the holistic view?

Why is frustration a scum trait here when he's changing reads? If he is town, he is chasing leads and they are turning up dead. If he is scum, he is chasing down possible mislims and then abandoning them for no reason. Which one of these scenarios causes frustration?

[Deimos27]

It bothers me that it took Deimos this long to finally vote Ircher.
~C

Can you elaborate on when exactly you were expecting me to vote Ircher

[ratmans]

ok yeah

Rat

is solid town.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[ratmans]

I don't really get what's going on but Taly and Ircher are both solid votes right?

[Deimos27]

ircher is doing terrible at derailing. good correction deimos. gold star

Yeah I mean I'm really not convinced
I see this level of hard defense from scum all the time on their TMIs
Often the thought behind it is really not that deep
It's just "I could protect this townie and it could either pocket them or hopefully get big towncred" without much nuance

And in this case Ircher is very widely scumread they don't have good reason to think their word would have weight

anyway

Are you even voting Ircher yet?
~C

I was going to right after this explanation and then he got dayvigged

This is 100% true
I'd already typed out the vote on Ircher when I saw the dayvig
At which point I actively thought to myself: "to better sell the reaction test I should look like I believe the vig, in which case I should look like it doesn't make a difference whether I vote or not, so I shouldn't vote now"

[ratmans]

Oh.
Is Ircher actually dead?

[Deimos27]

It was a reaction test

[Sakura Hana]

this is how i see it.

ircher = scum = vic being town becuase ircher has tmi for vic to be town
ircher = town = vic being town because ircher has tmi (pr) for vic to be town


if you flip vic
vic = scum = ircher being scum due to defense
vic = town = ircher being scum due to having tmi

in the case that vic is scum, its 1/4
in the case that ircher is scum, 3/4


i see more worlds where ircher is scum

Nani?
Your 2nd part contradicts the first, since the first part has an scenario where both vic and ircher are town. Regardless of who you flip first that doesnt alter the other player's actual alignment, wtf is this.

[ratmans]

Should've finished reading.
Did Ircher pass?

[Deimos27]

ratmans is the epitome of dumbtell
How many do I need to see before I believe it?
I am not sure. Perhaps I should already believe it

[Deimos27]

Should've finished reading.
Did Ircher pass?

Not that I'm aware of

[Ircher]

VOTE: rat

[ratmans]

I am simply a rat

[ratmans]

Ew
VOTE: Ircher

[jjh927]

ratmans is the epitome of dumbtell
How many do I need to see before I believe it?
I am not sure. Perhaps I should already believe it

In day 1, I only need to see 1

[Ircher]

VOTE: rat

[Deimos27]

Spoiler:

it was a reaction test.

Oh ok
VOTE: Ircher
Rest of that post dont matter

You believed it?

I did find something odd about it, but i didnt have any reason to disbelieve it.

Ok nevermind, at first I did, but later I realized that it seemed to operate entirely different from toog's suicide bomb, which made me think it was probably fake but I continued to play along.

This smells fishy to me