Newbie 2082 - Game Over

[Andante]

Free pagetop for me

[Micc]

Votecount 3.02

Andante (3) -

frogsfrogs, Val89, igorsprite

Not Voting (4) -

StrangeMatter, Andante, implosion, catboi

With 7 players alive it takes 4 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 3 is in (expired on 2021-11-22 09:10:00).

[StrangeMatter]

What is with it and multiple people shading Igor's tracker claim by the way?

[Andante]

If I'm not hammered by the time I return, honestly, I think that says a lot, cause that's make both maf on my wagon, assuming igor tracker, frogs and val maf!! lmaooo I literally TRed both their entrances awesome. ok, I'll see yall later!!!

[Andante]

What is with it and multiple people shading Igor's tracker claim by the way?

Igor isn't really playing with town's best intentions in mind tbh like, igor should not be rushing to vote me right now, unless there's something super scummy coming from mafmen, like, give me a second to breathe, and I'm sure you'll tr me, but I don't have time right now

[StrangeMatter]

But this has happened multiple times over this game, not just your slot. I get I was wrong with Greeting but I feel like there's something up with that.

[frogsfrogs]

Uuugghhh Val being on MafMen slot too & this getting to E-1 makes me take a step back.

I

know Val and I aren't partners, so has he really examined me..? Was this vote actually such an easy choice for him?? I see his d1 analysis and it's just the same things he's been saying all game, like he's sticking to his story and wants to play me into keeping this vote by townreading me so hard.
What this is telling me is that there's two town in this pool, with.. prrrrobably strange as the partner either way? (I actually don't think the spat they and Adante had wasn't distancing. Strange's escalation after Adante's pretty odd push read as way defensive, if not also constructed.)
I really feel like I know nothing anymore in this game @_@ but I want to actually slow down here and think about if I've been wrong on Val the entire time. Don't hammer Adante yet.

VOTE: Val89

[StrangeMatter]

Uuugghhh Val being on MafMen slot too & this getting to E-1 makes me take a step back.

I

know Val and I aren't partners, so has he really examined me..? Was this vote actually such an easy choice for him?? I see his d1 analysis and it's just the same things he's been saying all game, like he's sticking to his story and wants to play me into keeping this vote by townreading me so hard.
What this is telling me is that there's two town in this pool, with.. prrrrobably strange as the partner either way? (I actually don't think the spat they and Adante had wasn't distancing. Strange's escalation after Adante's pretty odd push read as way defensive, if not also constructed.)
I really feel like I know nothing anymore in this game @_@ but I want to actually slow down here and think about if I've been wrong on Val the entire time. Don't hammer Adante yet.

VOTE: Val89

Gee, how about I take a swing at your best method of catching scum in the past and see how you feel about it. That's what that felt like to me.

[catboi]

Now I just feel like I'm being messed with

[frogsfrogs]

Gee, how about I take a swing at your best method of catching scum in the past and see how you feel about it. That's what that felt like to me.

Sorry, what do you mean here? Are you saying you think Val's analysis looked like scum faking??

[catboi]

am i being wifomed, am i tunneled, i have no idea anymore

[catboi]

frogs why should i be reading you as town

[catboi]

I'm definitely being boomed

somewhere

but it is hard to tell

[StrangeMatter]

Gee, how about I take a swing at your best method of catching scum in the past and see how you feel about it. That's what that felt like to me.

Sorry, what do you mean here? Are you saying you think Val's analysis looked like scum faking??

No, that's an example that best describes how I feel right now about their thoughts about it being LAMIST when I'm trying my best to solve with similar methods (using experience) I've had worked.

[igorsprite]

@catboi ok i will trust you, andante is town, now we have 50% chance of winning the game today.

who do you think that is the rb, val or frogs?

UNVOTE:

[frogsfrogs]

frogs why should i be reading you as town

I have been actively trying to understand everyone all game and engage in solving. Some of my posts to you yesterday were wrapped up in what might be a faulty scum read of you & frustration but I've been forthcoming and thoughtful and explanatory as I can be.

I really think it could be either Val or Adante here. They were both really key votes on greeting yesterday and I think there's a world where Val has had me pocketed like this whole time. :I There's potential partners for both of them too.

[StrangeMatter]

frogsfrogs can you please answer my question in #1085.

[catboi]

frogs why should i be reading you as town

I have been actively trying to understand everyone all game and engage in solving. Some of my posts to you yesterday were wrapped up in what might be a faulty scum read of you & frustration but I've been forthcoming and thoughtful and explanatory as I can be.

I really think it could be either Val or Adante here. They were both really key votes on greeting yesterday and I think there's a world where Val has had me pocketed like this whole time. :I There's potential partners for both of them too.

This might sound weird but link me some instances of you solving that show you're town?

And do you have mafia experience on a different site?

(I fully admit I was somewhat conf-biasing my case against you yesterday)

[frogsfrogs]

Val's votes so far have been (Margot RVS) Thynhith -> Implosion -> Greeting -> Thynhith -> Catboi -> Himself -> catboi -> greeting -> MafMen, right?

Adante's slot has gone Val -> (day 2) Val -> catboi -> greeting

So few votes from MafMen probably reflects a playstyle thing, and also his absence from much of day 2. Notably they've all been very

early

votes on the train, too. He was first to Val, first to catboi, and second on greeting when the votes were placed. I consider that a little bit +town, apparently starting trains that then other players followed.
You can tell Val has strong, varied opinions by the amount of players he voted for, and you can see how his greeting read was held tight from when he first made it, through D2. I feel like I should reread the specific moments, but his Thynhith hammer and final greeting vote are notable. I feel pretty strongly that these two can't be partners, based on the way they've interacted and been scum reading each other so hard, but it's one of them as RBer despite both having a self vote / "fine, lim me" moment yesterday.

[frogsfrogs]

I agree with what Thynhith said up there! I'm unsure of a lot of the same people and most suspicious of Igor and Mafmen. I think based on Igor's quick vote they likely aren't

both

scum, but either is possible? Again, don't really agree with the reasoning Mafmen brought up that Igor's just too obvious to be maf, since so many of us are inexperienced in here. Placing a vote here for now.

VOTE: igorsprite

I don't really get this. Why does the number of players dictate how valid what Mafmen (assuming Too Scummy to be Scum here) said?

Sure. I wasn't talking about the number of players, I was talking about the level of experience. "There are a lot of complete newbies in here [and I don't know igor's skill level], so I don't feel like someone acting 'too' scummy is necessarily made town. Someone who's a first timer might genuinely not know what they look like" was basically what I was saying here. That's why I voted him then.

[catboi]

Actually, you don't need to answer me, just keep doing what you're doing. Analyze those two. I'll watch.

[StrangeMatter]

I still don’t quite get it, so are you saying that you believe that because of how inexperienced people are, that it doesn’t mean it doesn’t mean they are newbie town?

[StrangeMatter]

I still don’t quite get it, so are you saying that you believe that because of how inexperienced people are, that it doesn’t mean they are newbie town?

EBWOP (This happens way too much.)

[StrangeMatter]

I think I might've found something that could be useful here, but I need to confirm something with the moderator.

[frogsfrogs]

Ok, looking at these guys' votes on trains that flipped town.

Val -> Thynhith

Val snipes a meta theory, in-between arguing with greeting, on Thynhith in 180. He scumreads him on the basis of Thyn seeming to have a "different vibe" to last game and allegedly making posts that are very similar to scum!Val's own in the previous game. I did not look into it or this game very much at all at the time, meta reads are a lot to digest lol, and thought it was interesting, but being more careful now I actually feel like he's misrepresenting some stuff here.

First, the scumreads for TMI point. Val links a post and says that Thynhith's early vote on MafMen was a lot like the fake scumread he gave below. Edited out the irrelevant parts, but you can read for yourself at the source if you'd like. Opening the posts by the scumread player in that game that he links, I think they're actually a hell of a lot more meaty and townie than MafMen's iso was when Thynhith voted him. See spangled's defense of his townread here, vs MafMen admitting his townread could look TMI and that he thinks Thyn and everyone who voted him was probably town. The premise of the argument here is "Thynhith is copying some of my own strategy from when I won as scum, like faking this kind of read," but Thyn's scumread on MafMen was way more strongly reasoned than scum!Val's, and, I'd say, should not look fake at that time. Val started from the premise that Thynhith was playing similar to him, thus assumes his plays are fake, and does not interrogate the quality of Thyn's posts at all. It feels forced and, in retrospect, like bait that I kind of fell for.

Spoiler:

You're saying you wouldn't get any information if FB flipped first, but why is that? If he flipped green that would exonerate spangled's "dodgy" read

Except that it wouldn't, that's my whole point. The 'dodigness' of the read isn't that it's a townread, its the fact it was such a strong townread given at the time it was. I am speculating that Spangled was able to say "yeah, FB is really towny" at the point he did because he knows for a fact that FB is town.

[...]

Put it this way. Imagine you are in the outside looking in, and I give you this iso:

The ISO

Sorry for my absence, I was either sleeping or working. On my lunch break now, but before I go back some food for thought: not reading a players post due to apathy seems worse than not reading it due to laziness. Galron, is it just Cook's posts you're apathetic towards? Why?

I'm not apathetic toward Cook's posts. I just don't feel like reading them. I guess maybe that is apathy; I don't know. Everyone else's posts are much shorter. That's got something to do with it. Cook could be open-wolfing (I have a personal bias against that term btw), but I don't know.

It seems that if anyone is wolfing (there's that term again) it up again,

I

, and everyone else, would be alerted to it. In a succinct manner ofc.

Unless that person is Cook, because how can you be alert to an open wolf if you don't feel like reading their lengthy posts? Start being more motivated, goddamn it.

hey, Facebones, you reckon DArby’s whiteknighting me a wee bit?

I mean, I guess there's a chance. I have accused people of whiteknighting in the past and been rather embarrassed about the whole ordeal afterwards though. Due to that, and because it's still early stages, I'm gonna put it down to being NAI

How come you're anxious to hear about what Thynhith makes of my entrance? Like, why him specifically?

Can you give a read on that player? If you can, how confident can you possibly be about that read?

I'm not intrested in what that read is; I just want to know if people consider giving a strong read on that basis is inside the range of reasonable responses to that ISO, without having additional pre-known information about the alignment of that player. I've given my view - that is isn't possible to give a confident read on that basis. Spangled has defended that read at 323 and avers that it is. If

other

players now tell me, "Yeah, Val, I can see why Spangled could reasonably hold that read, even if I or you don't agree with it", then I would be happier supporting a Facebones wagon, but currently I think a scum!Spangled means Facebones is much more likley to be town, lack of content aside.

Val's point about Thynhith reminding everyone about E-1 is much of the same, unreasonable if not forced. Yes, scum can make "helpful" posts and be attempting to gain trust, but the linked post is not even scum!Val reminding Thynhith that he put someone at E-1. It is scum!Val

questioning a player who just voted Thynhith

for not announcing E-1, and Thynhith later says "Thanks for the reminder, Val." Forgotten E-1 announcements happen all the time in newbie games, I assume, but Thynhith is "copying scum!Val" for it. Val is scumreading Thynhith for doing things that scum!him did, but none of the things he lists are scum behavior.

Additionally, skimming through 2080 has me seeing scum!Val as being aggressive and outspoken, much like he has here. This isn't to meta scumread him for seeming to act similarly, but it is to point out that my previous logic, that "scum wouldn't be as loud and verbose as Val is," is apparently totally wrong. He could and has done this as scum.

Val's actual Thynhith hammer happens in 360 / 362. It's a day and a half to mandatory end of day, he says he's happy where his reads are at, and the votes are 4 - Thyn 2 - Val89. The actual circumstances seem reasonable enough. Between his previous Thynhith post and the last, though, he says nothing more on his read of him and makes no attempt to question, because he was arguing with MafMen and then catboi instead. He does not follow up to make a read of Thynhith's defense of himself, like he's just happy to have the train happen. Overall :T I don't like this one very much.

Val89 -> Greeting

This is really rough and.. I actually have a hard time with scumreading it on it's own. Val is clearly genuinely very frustrated by his train, he's persuaded to not be selfvoting in 976, and then greeting is put at E-2 and announces he still has intent to selfhammer. Val takes the opportunity to vote, without comment, in 1011. Val's known to be very stubborn in his reads and he tunneled catboi and greeting the most, so even with the heightened emotions of that day & unwillingness to cooperate on other votes, this vote is certainly consistent behavior for him. He might also hate nolimming here. For scum!Val, StrangeMatter and Igor's greeting votes plus greeting being there to hammer is a miracle. Scum team gets gifted a mislim here and thus he'd absolutely make this vote, but I think town!Val might do the same. He's been hard suspicious of greeting for so long.

It

is

notable that Val has been effectively the hammer voter both times. I

did

not realize this before. He shows a propensity for pushing very hard during the day, but in the end, (opportunistically?) capping off trains and doing so with little transparency (not really reading Thyn, getting greeting to self hammer hours before EoD when everyone else is gone). I find it hard, still, to read his self vote as intimidation and a gamble, especially if he's RBer, but reexamining? I'm not actually liking what I see :X

MafMen -> Greeting

730. He's the second vote on greeting here, with Igor having voted greeting quite a while before. Val/Greeting scumteam is, well, ridiculous. :I They'd be god tier level actors if they managed to pull off all of d1's theater. I don't think his reasons for individually scumreading val or greeting are too bad here, though, so. Either scum making weird reads because they want to be open to either mislim, or a crazy theory he had as town and wasn't afraid to put it out there. What I do want to question is his read and positioning on strangematter. This pair matters a lot now, with them as a potential team, and I don't actually understand why, with the comments he makes about that slot's posts, Strange is his #1 townread? He says pseudo's posts all looked green enough, but doesn't seem all that sure on strange. In the same list, Implosion has several "very green" posts but is brought down to being neutral because he was interrogating Thyn but not voting him & apparently looked fake when he was trying to get Igor's actual night action results?? I don't get it, I'm inclined to say it feels constructed. He's not here to answer, though, and I think I've been prey to thinking "'Reads I like / understand' = town and 'Reads I don't understand' = scum" already. @_@ I'm willing to vote here today too.