Open 836: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[VP Baltar]

So either the team is SA/Bingle or I'm very very wrong here.

Which do you think is more likely?

[Dwlee99]

So either the team is SA/Bingle or I'm very very wrong here.

Which do you think is more likely?

Me being wrong

[Sleepless Assassin]

Okay all caught up.

So Day 2 I was gonna say at daystar Dunn (now Toog) and Gamma are probably town with Gammas flip. And I was gonna say two scum in Almost50/Dwlee/VP/Bingle. Now I see that Almost50 is dead and the rest of my scum possibilities are basically the end of day 1 Gamma wagon which is weird but also not insanely surprising.

So end of Day 1 I mentioned Andante feeling too confident about catching scum right away. It's also a little weird how Andante seems to think I'd basically just bus Iconeum all Day 1 if I was scum. Maybe the overconfidence is a playstyle thing though. I don't know. And the other thing could easily be just not reading the thread.

The other thing from end of Day 1, skitter almost seemed to know Darby was flipping scum. I pushed that slot longer than anyone and even I had a moment of "man I hope this is right" before clicking the spoiler and seeing red. I hate that I'm doubting this slot because I really wanted to say town especially when they felt willing to help me push Iconeum early on.

I still think Enchant is town. Like I said early in this post I still think Toog is town. For now I lean town on Andante, Bingle, and weirdly enough VP pending something. That leaves Fun and Games and Dwlee but I don't really have any kind of smoking gun case kind of thing on Dwlee which is where I'd lean for a vote.

And if you need a hypoclaim for cop results, mine is innocent on Gamma N1. Isn't it fun that I missed Day 2?

[VP Baltar]

The other thing from end of Day 1, skitter almost seemed to know Darby was flipping scum.

Can you expand on this. What are you seeing that's making you feel this way?

[VP Baltar]

who the heck is the last one. cause I just read an icon/dunn thing that has me thinking it can't be dunn, I'm thinking it's not VP

Gamma Emerald - Flipping red

VP Baltar - might be town
Toogeloo Dunnstral - honestly might be town
Bingle - I like 503, skimming this ISO, Bingle doesn't look bad to me, might be town
Enchant - starts off suggesting what roles town has, I see town do this a lot more than scum, with guessing about the setup, 1500- Sleepless feels like scum in that exchange. overall I think Enchant is town, my least confident townlean, but I'm ok looking elsewhere for now.


Fun and Games (skitter30 & PookyTheMagicalBear) - Town
Almost50 - I'm told A50 was the person who shifted momentum to darby, that makes A50 town




So now we're left with 2:

Dwlee99 Not_Mafia - Read is based on Dw: Honestly, "reads" felt fake, and said a lot of "happy to be here!!!" "excited to play!!!" "no time for reads" I could see this being the reaction of someone replacing into scum, I haven't read N_M, but NM is never an easy read for me

Sleepless Assassin - uhhh idk who this is tbh, I haven't read anything from them, they must be coasting, jk pulled up the ISO, 1846 feels like TMI knowing Toog town, 1956 tries to throw shade on me, like, so what I didn't have perfect reads upon replace in?



No one is suspicious of Sleepless?

Can you please explain to me why you called me maybe town in this post? You had been absolutely hounding me and calling me scum right up until this moment, and I don't understand why you shifted your perspective there.

[Fun and Games]

skitter almost seemed to know Darby was flipping scum

i mean i didn't know, he was just my biggets scumread

~ skitter

[Sleepless Assassin]

The other thing from end of Day 1, skitter almost seemed to know Darby was flipping scum.

Can you expand on this. What are you seeing that's making you feel this way?

If darby flips scum though, that's likely dats confirmtown. If Gamma is scum as well, today was a complete cluster fuck for the red jerseys

kinda sounds like baltar scum tsk tsking at his soon to be fallen comrades :3

This felt like knowing Darbys flip before it came. With the smilie maybe it's a joke I didn't read as on right away, but it looks like partner hunting too soon if not.

Can you please explain to me why you called me maybe town in this post? You had been absolutely hounding me and calling me scum right up until this moment, and I don't understand why you shifted your perspective there.

When Bingle posted and I thought it was you and I called out all these motives in that post, I realized my frustration with you made me see things that maybe weren't there.

i mean i didn't know, he was just my biggets scumread

~ skitter

Mine too but I'd want to see a flip before I started sounding all "I told you so" about it. I relate to feeling that way, but not until I saw the flip.

[Fun and Games]

like i said we were p confident that he was flipping scum
if you want to post that we're partners with him i'd like you to explain our entire day1 interactions where we spent most of the day pushing him

~ skitter

[VP Baltar]

On vote counts, I pulled several that seemed relevant for an analysis:

VC 1.4
Dunnstral (5)- Fun and Games, VP Baltar,

Iconeum

, PenguinPower,

Datisi

Gamma Emerald

(2)-

Almost50

, Bingle
VP Baltar (1)-

Gamma Emerald

Fun and Games (1)- Dunnstral

Datisi

(1)-

SirCakez

Iconeum

(1)- Sleepless Assassin
Not_Mafia (1)- Not_Mafia
Sleepless Assassin (1)- Enchant

Not voting (0)- Nobody

With 13 alive it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-11-23 23:00:00)



VC 1.5

Gamma Emerald

(4)-

Almost50

, Bingle, PenguinPower, Sleepless Assassin
Dunnstral (3)- VP Baltar,

Iconeum

,

Datisi

VP Baltar (1)-

Gamma Emerald

Datisi

(1)-

SirCakez

Not_Mafia (1)- Not_Mafia
Sleepless Assassin (1)- Enchant

Not voting (2)- Fun and Games, Dunnstral

With 13 alive it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-11-23 23:00:00)


VC 1.7

Iconeum

(3)- Sleepless Assassin, PenguinPower,

Gamma Emerald

Dunnstral (3)- VP Baltar,

Iconeum

,

Datisi

Gamma Emerald

(2)-

Almost50

, Bingle

Datisi

(1)-

SirCakez

Not_Mafia (1)- Not_Mafia
Sleepless Assassin (1)- Enchant
PenguinPower (1)- Fun and Games

Not voting (1)- Dunnstral

With 13 alive it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-11-23 23:00:00)

VC 1.8

Iconeum

(5)- Sleepless Assassin, PenguinPower,

Gamma Emerald, Datisi

, Fun and Games
Dunnstral (2)- VP Baltar,

Iconeum

Gamma Emerald

(2)-

Almost50

, Bingle
Not_Mafia (1)- Not_Mafia
Sleepless Assassin (1)- Enchant
Fun and Games (1)-

SirCakez

Not voting (1)- Dunnstral

With 13 alive it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-11-23 23:00:00)


VC 1.10
Dunnstral (4)-

DArby

,

Gamma Emerald, Datisi,

VP Baltar

DArby

(3)- Sleepless Assassin, PenguinPower, Fun and Games

Gamma Emerald

(2)-

Almost50

, Bingle
Fun and Games (2)-

SirCakez

, Enchant
Not_Mafia (1)- Not_Mafia

Not voting (1)- Dunnstral

With 13 alive it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-11-23 23:00:00)


VC 1.FINAL

DArby

(7)- Sleepless Assassin, PenguinPower, Fun and Games,

Almost50, Datisi, Gamma Emerald

, Enchant (HAMMER)

Gamma Emerald

(4)- Bingle,

DArby,

VP Baltar, Dwlee99
Toogeloo (1)-

SirCakez

Not voting (1)- Toogeloo

With 13 alive it takes 7 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-11-26 13:00:00)

------------------------

Gamma Emerald

(6)- Fun and Games, VP Baltar, Andante, Dwlee99,

Gamma Emerald

, Enchant (HAMMER)

Not voting (4)-

Almost50

, Toogeloo, Sleepless Assassin, Bingle

With 10 alive it takes 6 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in 12 days, 14 hours, 25 minutes

I'm not pulling a huge amount from these vote counts, but a few things that stand out to me is Enchant's hammers look scummy in a vacuum. Enchant, do you often try to hammer in games?

The way Penguin camps on Ico/DArby also seems worth reviewing. I want to go back and review why he followed Sleepless onto that wagon. He of course kind of ghosted the game, but it did stick out to me.

The other notable item I see is that Fun and Games looks the most likely to be in a bus slot on DArby if it's not Enchant or Penguin. Again, I need to spend some time reading ISOs to feel out their reasoning for the Ico/DArby read and vote.

My instincts here say scum was more likely than not to try bussing D1 given that at least Ico replaced out from that team. I, of course, also have the benefit of knowing my alignment on these vote counts as well.

F&G -- what do you see in those vote counts?

[VP Baltar]

VP wrote:
Can you please explain to me why you called me maybe town in this post? You had been absolutely hounding me and calling me scum right up until this moment, and I don't understand why you shifted your perspective there.

When Bingle posted and I thought it was you and I called out all these motives in that post, I realized my frustration with you made me see things that maybe weren't there.

This was directed at Andante ...?

[Sleepless Assassin]

like i said we were p confident that he was flipping scum
if you want to post that we're partners with him i'd like you to explain our entire day1 interactions where we spent most of the day pushing him

~ skitter

That's fair. Bussing is a thing that happens but I'd have to look close before convincing myself whether you actually did or not.

Preview edit: No, VP, that was my reply to you

[VP Baltar]

like i said we were p confident that he was flipping scum

After the hammer, what made you confident he was flipping red though?

[Fun and Games]

sa is very unlikely to be scum given that he camped on ico/darby the entire game

you look worse than i thought day1 for being offwagon, and i'm realizing taht i have v little reason to townread dwlee

i also don't think ico camps on a buddy, so i think that's +town for toog

i also somewhat object to the notion that our vote on ico looks like a bus :shrug:

~ skitter

[Fun and Games]

Bussing is a thing that happens but I'd have to look close before convincing myself whether you actually did or not.

ok plz do so and lmk if u have any questions

[VP Baltar]

Preview edit: No, VP, that was my reply to you

haha, I'm saying my question was to Andante...that's who I was quoting, not you.

But thank you for answering!

[VP Baltar]

i also somewhat object to the notion that our vote on ico looks like a bus :shrug:

do you think scum bus in that situation with Darby?

Also noticed you didn't say anything about Enchant there.

[Bingle]

Bingle, what's your thought on that?

I can see a few explanations:

There's scum in the town leaders.
Scum wants us to think there's scum in the town leaders.
Scum thought A50 lurking was a PR tell.
Scum thought that A50 was impossible to eliminate based on my read.
A50 dropped a PR tell I didn't notice and scum did.
Scum thinks they're fucked and was trying to shake up the game with an off the wall kill.

Those are roughly in order of how likely I think they are.

It's why I'm interested in Andante's push on hockey, actually.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Preview edit: No, VP, that was my reply to you

haha, I'm saying my question was to Andante...that's who I was quoting, not you.

But thank you for answering!

Oh lol. OK, I saw it after a question to me, thought it was a follow up, and it fit me so well I never second guessed

[Fun and Games]

I am optimistic for this flip

~ skitter

for me, it was: darby's reluctance to claim + 1995

why were u confident he was flipping scum in post 1996

If darby flips scum though, that's likely dats confirmtown. If Gamma is scum as well, today was a complete cluster fuck for the red jerseys

kinda sounds like baltar scum tsk tsking at his soon to be fallen comrades :3

to clarify i didn't write this one so i can't answer questions abt it ^

~ skitter

[VP Baltar]

i also don't think ico camps on a buddy, so i think that's +town for toog

why not camp on a buddy with a wagon that's not really going anywhere despite my best efforts?

[Sleepless Assassin]

I'm guessing scum thought Almost50 was a power role who was townread universally enough that he made sense as a NK.

[Fun and Games]

i also somewhat object to the notion that our vote on ico looks like a bus :shrug:

do you think scum bus in that situation with Darby?

Also noticed you didn't say anything about Enchant there.

sure, but votes after a50's are more likely to be bussing votes than votes prior imo

also i didn't have anything more to say about enchant than what i already said, i'm not sure what you're calling out here. i'm p sure on the prior page i said i didn't think the hammers come from scum

~ skitter

[Fun and Games]

i also don't think ico camps on a buddy, so i think that's +town for toog

why not camp on a buddy with a wagon that's not really going anywhere despite my best efforts?

uh i recall more of your efforts day1 being on SA?

and that was ico's one and only push basically, you're trying to tell me taht his only push of the game was on a buddy?

~ skitter

[VP Baltar]

why were u confident he was flipping scum in post 1996

Because I didn't see any reason as town someone would think their D1 elimination would count against their meta. Datisi caught it too obviously when he backed me up in that next post.

sounds like it

s_s please do the thing i am tired but i won't be able to sleep now

[Fun and Games]

what's the point of asking me about having basically the same reaction to the same post that you did

you're basically criticizing my 2007 when your 1996 has the exact same sentiment for the same reasons based on the same post ...

~ skitter